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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – Oct. 7-8

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 10/06/23, 6:00PM EDT

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Four playoff berths remain, find out how they could be decided on the penultimate weekend of the season


Phoenix Rising FC will pursue a home playoff game, while New Mexico United will try to keep its playoff hopes alive as the sides clash on Saturday night. | Photo courtesy Brandino / New Mexico United

Welcome to the latest edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs, in which we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2023 USL Championship Playoffs in October.

Only four berths are now available for the postseason after Wednesday night’s action, which saw both Orange County SC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC secure their places, and Birmingham Legion FC seems poised to join them as early as Saturday night. There’s still a lot to watch out for in this weekend’s 12-game slate in terms of positioning, and the potential that Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC could clinch the Players’ Shield.

Here are four games to keep an eye on, and where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Saturday, October 7

The Charleston Battery are almost locked into third place in the Eastern Conference standings, but after last week’s loss they’ll be aiming to bounce back and try to keep their hopes of a second-place finish alive as they host eighth-placed Miami FC. The visitors, meanwhile, are on a three-game winning streak and could clinch a playoff place with a win, pending results for Detroit City FC and FC Tulsa. A loss on the road, however, and Miami could drop below the playoff line against.

Saturday, October 7

Everything is on the line for the top two teams in the Eastern Conference in downtown St. Petersburg, with Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC assured of claiming the Players’ Shield if it can take victory against the Tampa Bay Rowdies. There are multiple complex scenarios that could play out if either Tampa Bay takes victory, or the teams end up playing to a draw, including the potential that the Hounds would be the No. 1 seed in the East, while the Rowdies win the Players’ Shield. Read more about how that bizarre circumstance could occur here.

Saturday, October 7

Memphis 901 FC has clinched a playoff berth, but it could secure a home playoff game if it takes victory against El Paso Locomotive FC and Louisville City FC falls at home against Hartford Athletic. Locomotive FC has plenty to gain as it hits the road, though, as a win would put it in position to clinch a playoff place should either Oakland Roots SC or Monterey Bay F.C. drop points this weekend as well.

Saturday, October 7
10:30 PM
Stadium IconPhoenix Rising Stadium at 38th St/Washington

Sitting in fifth place in the Western Conference, Phoenix Rising FC can still host a playoff game despite a three-point gap to make up on both third-placed Orange County SC and fourth-placed San Diego Loyal SC, but it would need to win here to ensure that opportunity remains on the final weekend of the season. 10th-placed New Mexico United, meanwhile, needs to win, or else its playoff chances could end this weekend depending on how the teams above it in the standings fare. That should add some added edge to what has been a strong rivalry over the years.

STANDINGS

WESTERN CONFERENCE 

1. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 16-6-10, 58pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 1st (95%)
Max Points Available: 64pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at RGV (10/7)
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Due to San Diego Loyal SC dropping point on the road on Wednesday night against El Paso Locomotive FC, Sacramento Republic FC is guaranteed a top-two position in the Western Conference. It can also clinch top spot in the West on Saturday night with victory against Rio Grande Valley FC as it holds a three-point lead and the head-to-head tiebreaker over San Antonio FC. A win would also keep Sacramento in the running for the Players’ Shield should the Tampa Bay Rowdies claim victory against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, or the contest between the top two teams in the Eastern Conference end in a draw, as even in the case of a draw, Sacramento would still be within reach of matching Pittsburgh in points and total wins after the teams played to a draw in the regular season.
2. San Antonio FC
Record: 14-5-13, 55pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 2nd (80%)
Max Points Available: 61pts

Magic Number:N/A

Up Next: at OC (10/7)
+
San Antonio FC remains in need of help to finish first from South Texas Derby rival Rio Grande Valley FC as it hosts Sacramento Republic FC on Saturday, but the defending title holders would clinch a top-two finish with victory on the road against Orange County SC after San Diego Loyal SC dropped points on Wednesday night. A draw would open the door for SD Loyal to close the gap to two points going to the final weekend of the season, however, while an Orange County win would suddenly make it a three-team race for second place should San Diego take victory as well.
3. Orange County SC
Record:15-11-6, 51pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 4th (34%)
Max Points Available: 57pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. SA (10/7)
+
Orange County booked its postseason berth before it kicked off on Wednesday night, but it’s 3-1 victory against Oakland Roots SC jumped it into third place in the West thanks to holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over San Diego Loyal SC. OCSC can clinch a home playoff game this weekend, too. Should it take victory against San Antonio FC and Phoenix Rising FC fail to defeat New Mexico United, OCSC would be clear of Rising FC while also closing the gap to San Antonio in second place. If OCSC plays to a draw with San Antonio, meanwhile, it would need Rising FC to lose to ensure a top-four finish, as Phoenix holds the head-to-head tiebreaker between the two clubs.

Orange County SC Home Playoffs Scenarios
  • 1. Orange County SC wins vs. San Antonio FC, moves to 54pts
  • - Phoenix Rising FC draws/loses vs. New Mexico United, maximum available points drops to 52/51pts
  • 2. Orange County SC draws vs. San Antonio FC, moves to 52pts
  • - Phoenix Rising FC loses vs. New Mexico United, maximum available points drops to 51pts
  • - Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC draws/loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum available points drops to 51/50pts
4. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 14-9-9, 51pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 3rd (39%)
Max Points Available: 57pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. OAK (10/7)
+
San Diego Loyal SC missed out on the chance to close the gap to San Antonio FC with its draw on Wednesday night and will now look to win on home turf to try and close the gap while hoping Orange County SC can take a win or a draw against San Antonio FC.

A win would also clinch a home playoff game for SD Loyal in any potential scenario. The primary of those is its head-to-head tiebreaker over Phoenix Rising FC (1-0-1), which would see SD Loyal clinch a home playoff game if it either wins or draws against Oakland, and Phoenix fails to win against New Mexico United, which would drop its maximum available points to 52pts. Should both San Diego and Phoenix lose, Rising FC’s maximum available points would drop to 51pts, leaving San Diego clear on head-to-head should Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC also fail to take victory against Las Vegas Lights FC.

However, a win would also clinch SD Loyal a playoff place on 54pts should it, Orange County SC and Rising FC all end level on 54pts at the end of the season. Due to each of San Diego, Orange County and Phoenix each having head-to-head tiebreakers over the other – San Diego over Phoenix (1-0-1), Phoenix over Orange County (1-0-1), Orange County over San Diego (1-1-0, +1GD) – the three-way tie would be broken on PPG vs. in-Conference Opponents.

Those totals currently have San Diego and Phoenix on 29 points through 20 games, and Orange County SC on 27 points through 20 games, with each facing two Western Conference opponents to end the season. As such, with a win San Diego would be guaranteed to finish no lower than second in that grouping should all three teams end on 54pts, and no lower than fourth overall in the standings.

Points-Per-Game vs. In-Conference Opposition
San Diego Loyal SC – 1.45ppg (29pts / 20gp)

Phoenix Rising FC – 1.45ppg (29pts / 20gp)

Orange County SC – 1.35ppg (27pts / 20gp)

San Diego Loyal SC Home Playoff Game Scenario
  • 1. San Diego Loyal SC wins vs. Oakland Roots SC, moves to 54pts
      - Phoenix Rising FC draws/loses vs. New Mexico United, maximum available points drops to 52/51pts
  • 2. San Diego Loyal SC draws vs. Oakland Roots SC, moves to 52pts
      - Phoenix Rising FC draws/loses vs. New Mexico United, maximum available points drops to 52/51pts – San Diego holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
  • 3. San Diego Loyal SC loses vs. Oakland Roots SC, remains on 51pts
    • - Phoenix Rising FC loses vs. New Mexico United, maximum available points drops to 51pts – San Diego holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
    • - Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC draws/loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum available points drops to 51/50pts – San Diego holds tiebreaker (2-0-0)
  • 5. Phoenix Rising FC
    Record: 12-8-12, 48pts

    Playoffs Odds: Clinched

    Projected Finish: 6th (43%)
    Max Points Available: 54pts

    Magic Number: N/A

    Up Next: vs. NM (10/7)
    +
    Phoenix Rising FC’s chances of hosting a playoff game took a hit thanks to Orange County SC’s victory in midweek, with the likelihood the side is going to need to win out and hope that both San Diego Loyal SC and Orange County SC win once and lose once in their final two games. Should the three teams end level on points in the standings, with no team holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over both of the others – San Diego over Phoenix (1-0-1), Phoenix over Orange County (1-0-1), Orange County over San Diego (1-1-0, +1GD) – the tiebreaker would come down to tie would be broken on PPG vs. in-Conference Opponents.
    Those totals currently have San Diego and Phoenix on 29 points through 20 games, and Orange County SC on 27 points through 20 games, with each facing two Western Conference opponents to end the season. If Phoenix wins out, and both SD Loyal and OCSC go 1-1-0 to close, it would vault Phoenix into third place in the standings.
    Points-Per-Game vs. In-Conference Opposition
    San Diego Loyal SC – 1.45ppg (29pts / 20gp)

    Phoenix Rising FC – 1.45ppg (29pts / 20gp)

    Orange County SC – 1.35ppg (27pts / 20gp)
    6. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
    Record: 14-13-5, 47pts

    Playoffs Odds:Clinched

    Projected Finish: 6th (45%)
    Max Points Available: 53pts

    Magic Number: N/A

    Up Next:at LV (10/7)
    +
    Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC got a helping hand from Hartford Athletic on Wednesday night to clinch its playoff berth, and it still has an outside chance at a home playoff game if it wins out its final two games of the season, pending the results of the three teams above it in the standings. Winning on the road this Saturday at Las Vegas Lights FC sets up a showdown next weekend with Phoenix Rising FC back on home turf.
    7. El Paso Locomotive FC
    Record: 12-12-8, 44pts

    Playoffs Odds: 75.6%

    Projected Finish: 7th (44%)
    Max Points Available: 50pts

    Magic Number: 4

    Up Next:at MEM (10/7)
    +
    El Paso Locomotive FC picked up a point at home to San Diego Loyal SC on Wednesday night, which has put it in position to claim a postseason berth with a win or a draw on Saturday against Memphis 901 FC, pending results elsewhere. With a win to move to 47pts, Locomotive FC would need either Oakland Roots to drop points against San Diego Loyal SC on Saturday night, or Monterey Bay F.C. to drop points on the road against Birmingham Legion FC on Sunday evening, since Monterey Bay holds the head-to-head tiebreaker between the sides (1-0-1). Should El Paso draw against Memphis to move to 45pts, however, it would need three additional results – Monterey Bay F.C. to lose to Birmingham Legion FC, New Mexico United to fail to win against Phoenix Rising FC, and Rio Grande Valley FC to fail to win against Sacramento Republic FC – to clinch its spot.
    El Paso Locomotive FC Playoff Clinching Scenario
      1. El Paso Locomotive FC wins vs. Memphis 901 FC, moves to 47pts
    • - Monterey Bay F.C. draws/loses vs. Birmingham Legion FC, maximum available total drops to 45/44pts
    • - OR Oakland Roots SC draws/loses vs. San Diego Loyal SC, maximum available total drops to 46/45pts
    • 2.El Paso Locomotive FC draws vs. Memphis 901 FC, moves to 45pts
    • - AND Rio Grande Valley FC draws/loses vs. Sacramento Republic FC, maximum available total drops to 44/43pts
    • - AND New Mexico United draws/loses vs. Phoenix Rising FC, maximum available total drops to 44/43pts
    • - AND Monterey Bay F.C. loses vs. Birmingham Legion FC, maximum available total drops to 44pts
    8. Oakland Roots SC
    Record: 11-12-9, 43pts

    Playoffs Odds: 75%

    Projected Finish: 7th (31%)
    Max Points Available: 48pts

    Magic Number: 6

    Up Next: at SD (10/7)
    +
    Oakland Roots SC is still holding onto its position above the playoff line despite its loss to Orange County SC on Wednesday night, and due to Rio Grande Valley FC’s defeat to Hartford Athletic in midweek, Roots SC could clinch a playoff place on Saturday if everything falls right for them over the rest of the weekend. Win on the road against San Diego Loyal SC and see Rio Grande Valley FC fail to win against Sacramento Republic FC, New Mexico United fail to win against Phoenix Rising FC, and Monterey Bay F.C. fail to win against Birmingham Legion FC on Sunday, and Oakland will be back in the playoffs.
      Oakland Roots SC wins vs. San Diego Loyal SC, moves to 45pts
    • - Rio Grande Valley FC draws/loses vs. Sacramento Republic FC, maximum available total drops to 44/43pts
    • - New Mexico United draws/loses vs. Phoenix Rising FC, maximum available total drops to 44/43pts
    • - Monterey Bay F.C. draws/loses vs. Birmingham Legion FC, maximum available total drops to 45/44pts – Oakland holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
    9. Monterey Bay F.C.
    Record: 11-13-8, 41pts

    Playoffs Odds: 32%

    Projected Finish: 10th (24%)
    Max Points Available: 47pts

    Magic Number: N/A

    Up Next: at BHM (10/8)
    +
    Monterey Bay F.C. got a good amount of help in midweek with El Paso Locomotive FC and Oakland Roots SC both dropping points, and the side will be paying close attention to Saturday night’s action before squaring off with Birmingham Legion FC on Sunday evening at Protective Stadium. Most important for MBFC would be San Diego Loyal SC taking victory against Oakland Roots SC to keep the eighth-placed side just a point ahead in the standings, but setbacks for Rio Grande Valley FC and New Mexico United would also be useful to give Monterey Bay a pathway back above the playoff line.
    10. New Mexico United
    Record: 11-14-7, 40pts

    Playoffs Odds: 17%

    Projected Finish: 11th (37%)
    Max Points Available: 46pts

    Magic Number: N/A

    Up Next: at PHX (10/7)
    +
    New Mexico United also got helped out by El Paso Locomotive FC and Oakland Roots SC dropping points on Wednesday night. United now faces a must-win game on the road against Phoenix Rising FC while hoping that the other teams around it – Oakland, Monterey Bay F.C. and Rio Grande Valley FC – all drop points this weekend.
    11. Rio Grande Valley FC
    Record: 9-10-13, 40pts

    Playoffs Odds: 18%

    Projected Finish: 11th (34%)
    Max Points Available: 46pts

    Magic Number: N/A

    Up Next: vs. SAC (10/7)
    +
    For 10 minutes on Wednesday night, Rio Grande Valley FC was above the playoff line before Hartford Athletic scored what proved to be the decisive goal in a 2-2 draw between the sides. Once again, the Toros aren’t out of it, but they’re facing a must-win home game against Sacramento Republic FC while hoping for setbacks for Oakland Roots SC, Monterey Bay F.C. and New Mexico United elsewhere in the schedule.

    Eliminated: Las Vegas Lights FC

    EASTERN CONFERENCE

    1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
    Record: 18-5-9, 63pts

    Playoffs Odds: Clinched

    Projected Finish: 1st (70%)
    Max Points Available: 69pts

    Magic Number: N/A

    Up Next: at TBR (10/7)
    +
    Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC can clinch the Players’ Shield on Saturday night if it can take victory on the road against the Tampa Bay Rowdies, which would also lock up first place in the Eastern Conference and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. A draw would also lock Pittsburgh into the No. 1 seed in the East, as it would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Tampa Bay thanks to its victory when the sides met at Highmark Stadium in August, while keeping the door open for Sacramento Republic FC in the Players’ Shield race.


    Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC Players’ Shield Scenario
    • Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC wins vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies, moves to 66pts
    • - Pittsburgh moves clear of Tampa Bay, maximum available points drops to 63
    • - Pittsburgh moves clear of Sacramento Republic FC, maximum available points at 64
    2. Tampa Bay Rowdies
    Record: 18-8-6, 60pts

    Playoffs Odds: Clinched

    Projected Finish: 2nd (61%)
    Max Points Available: 66pts

    Magic Number: N/A

    Up Next: vs. PIT (10/7)
    +
    The Tampa Bay Rowdies have clinched at least one home playoff game but must win against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC on Saturday night to have a chance to take top spot in the Eastern Conference and win the Players’ Shield on the final weekend of the season. A draw would ensure Pittsburgh holds the No. 1 seed in the East due to the head-to-head tiebreaker between the teams.
    3. Charleston Battery
    Record: 16-8-8, 56pts

    Playoffs Odds: Clinched

    Projected Finish: 3rd (91%)
    Max Points Available: 62pts

    Magic Number: N/A

    Up Next: vs. MIA (10/7)
    +
    The Charleston Battery clinched a top-three finish – and a first home playoff game since 2018 – despite falling against El Paso Locomotive FC thanks to both Memphis 901 FC and Louisville City FC also losing last weekend. With Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC out of reach in first, the Battery will be hoping for the Hounds to defeat the Tampa Bay Rowdies to allow them to close within a point of second with a win against Miami FC on Saturday. A victory against Miami would also be very welcome for Detroit City FC and FC Tulsa fans.
    4. Memphis 901 FC
    Record: 13-9-10, 49pts

    Playoffs Odds: Clinched

    Projected Finish: 5th (63%)
    Max Points Available: 55pts

    Magic Number: N/A

    Up Next: vs. ELP (10/7)
    +
    Memphis 901 FC remained in fourth place despite its defeat to rival Birmingham Legion FC as Louisville City FC also lost on the road at New Mexico United. With two games to go, this is the highest 901 FC can finish, but it could clinch a top-four finish on Saturday night it takes victory against El Paso Locomotive FC and LouCity loses at home to Hartford Athletic with 901 FC holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Louisville. If Memphis does defeat El Paso, it would also do a major favor to the teams below the playoff line in the West.

    Memphis Home Playoff Game Clinching Scenario
    • - Memphis 901 FC wins vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, moves to 52pts
    • AND Louisville City FC loses vs. Hartford Athletic, maximum available points drops to 52pts – Memphis holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
    5. Louisville City FC
    Record: 14-11-7, 49pts

    Playoffs Odds: Clinched

    Projected Finish: 4th (67%)
    Max Points Available: 55pts

    Magic Number: N/A

    Up Next: vs. HFD (10/7)
    +
    Louisville City FC missed out on a big opportunity after suffering defeat at New Mexico United, but hosting Hartford Athletic this weekend it gets the easier assignment on paper than Memphis 901 FC – which hosts playoff challenger El Paso Locomotive FC – and potentially another chance to jump into fourth position. All three points and a 901 FC draw or loss to El Paso Locomotive FC would put LouCity in position to clinch a home playoff game in its final game at home to the Tampa Bay Rowdies.
    6. Indy Eleven
    Record: 12-11-9, 45pts

    Playoffs Odds: Clinched

    Projected Finish: 6th (62%)
    Max Points Available: 51pts

    Magic Number: N/A

    Up Next: at TUL (10/7)
    +
    Indy Eleven is back in the postseason after its victory against Detroit City FC last weekend, and now gets to face another team chasing the playoffs at FC Tulsa this Saturday. A top-four finish is probably out of reach – a Louisville City FC victory at home to Hartford Athletic on Saturday would ensure Indy is in the lower-half of the seeding in the East – but both Miami FC and Detroit City FC will be hoping the Boys in Blue can win on the road.
    7. Birmingham Legion FC
    Record: 13-15-4, 43pts

    Playoffs Odds: >99%

    Projected Finish: 7th (77%)
    Max Points Available: 49pts

    Magic Number: 1

    Up Next: vs. MB (10/8)
    +
    Birmingham Legion FC could clinch its postseason berth before kicking off against Monterey Bay F.C. on Sunday evening if Detroit City FC drops points on the road against Loudoun United FC or Miami FC drops points away at the Charleston Battery. One point away from a fifth consecutive playoff berth, though, Monterey Bay will arrive highly motivated for all three points to keep their postseason chances alive.

    Birmingham Legion FC Clinching Scenarios
    • 1. Birmingham Legion FC wins vs. Monterey Bay F.C., moves to 46pts
    • - Birmingham Legion FC moves clear of Detroit City FC on maximum available points of 43

    • 2. Birmingham Legion FC draws vs. Monterey Bay F.C., moves to 44pts
    • - Birmingham Legion FC moves clear of Detroit City FC on maximum available points of 43

    • 3. Birmingham Legion FC loses vs. Monterey Bay F.C., remains on 43pts
    • AND Detroit City FC draws/loses vs. Loudoun United FC, maximum available points drops to 41/40
    • OR Miami FC draws/loses vs. Charleston Battery, maximum available points drops to 42/41
    8. Miami FC
    Record: 10-14-8, 38pts

    Playoffs Odds: 38%

    Projected Finish: 9th (39%)
    Max Points Available: 44pts

    Magic Number: 6

    Up Next: at CHS (10/7)
    +
    Miami FC made it above the playoff line with its third consecutive victory this past weekend at home to Hartford Athletic. Staying there is going to be a tougher proposition on paper, however, with the South Florida side headed on the road to face the Charleston Battery and Sacramento Republic FC to close the regular season. Miami can clinch a playoff berth with a win in Charleston, however, should Detroit City FC lose on the road against Loudoun United FC and FC Tulsa fail to take victory at home against Indy Eleven.

    Miami FC Clinching Scenario
    • - Miami FC wins vs. Charleston Battery, moves to 41pts
    • AND Detroit City FC loses vs. Loudoun United FC, maximum available points drops to 40pts
    • AND FC Tulsa draws/loses vs. Indy Eleven, maximum available points drops to 40/39pts
    9. Detroit City FC
    Record: 10-15-7, 37pts

    Playoffs Odds: 37%

    Projected Finish: 8th (37%)
    Max Points Available: 43pts

    Magic Number: N/A

    Up Next: at LDN (10/7)
    +
    Detroit City FC dropped below the playoff line after its defeat to Indy Eleven on Saturday night, but is still rate even odds with Miami FC to make the postseason in the end. A lot of that is based on this weekend’s matchups, where DCFC visits mathematically eliminated Loudoun United FC and Miami has to face the playoff-bound Charleston Battery. Le Rouge hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Miami as well and could put themselves in a strong position with a win. A loss, however, and it could all come to an end before the final weekend of the season.
    10. FC Tulsa
    Record: 9-14-9, 36pts

    Playoffs Odds: 24%

    Projected Finish: 10th (47%)
    Max Points Available: 42pts

    Magic Number: N/A

    Up Next: vs. IND (10/7)
    +
    Tulsa’s consecutive defeats has put the pressure on Saturday’s home game against Indy Eleven. Take victory and the side could be back above the playoff line and would take the playoff race to the final day of the regular season while holding the head-to-head tiebreakers over both Miami FC and Detroit City FC. A defeat – and a win for either Miami FC or Detroit City FC – would eliminate Tulsa from postseason contention.

    Eliminated: Loudoun United FC, Hartford Athletic

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