The race for the USL Championship’s 2023 Players’ Shield – won by the team with the best regular season record – is going down to the wire.

With two weekends to go, three teams are still in it.

But what if we told you one of these teams could win the Players’ Shield, but finish second in its conference?

As the Tampa Bay Rowdies host Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC this Saturday night, and Sacramento Republic FC aims to clinch the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, that’s exactly what could happen.

This is all because of the USL Championship’s tiebreaker rules.

Under the league’s tiebreakers – which can be found on the league standings page – head-to-head points serve as the first tiebreaker, while goal differential in head-to-head matches serve as the second. The third tiebreaker is points-per-game against in-conference opponents. Then we get to total wins, and goal differential as the fourth and fifth tiebreakers.

It’s that “against in-conference opponents” part that matters here.

In three scenarios, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and Sacramento could each finish on 64 points. In their out-of-conference games, Sacramento drew with both Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. Therefore, in the case of a three-way tie, both the head-to-head points tiebreaker and goal differential in head-to-head matches tiebreaker would be discarded. (Note: For clarity, the head-to-head tiebreakers are not based on a round-robin scenario.)

And since the three-way tie for the Shield would be cross-conference in nature, the “PPG against in-conference opponents” tiebreaker is rendered moot.

So, to determine the final Shield standings, we have to look at the total wins, while the conference standings would still take into account the in-conference tiebreaker.

Here’s how it could play out.

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Scenario One – Tampa Bay wins the Players’ Shield, finishes 1st in the Eastern Conference

Let’s start with the one that in terms of how the end of season standings look makes most sense. Pittsburgh won 1-0 against Tampa Bay when the teams played at Highmark Stadium. As such, if the Rowdies win against the Hounds on Saturday night by at least two goals they would both equal the head-to-head series with one win apiece and hold the upper hand in head-to-head goal differential.

Should both teams then draw their final games of the season – Tampa Bay away at Louisville City FC, Pittsburgh away at Detroit City FC – they would each end on 64 points with the Rowdies holding the head-to-head tiebreaker on goal differential. Should Sacramento also win its final two games against Rio Grande Valley FC and Miami FC, all three teams would end on 64 points, and the Rowdies would win the Players’ Shield with 19 wins to 18 each for Pittsburgh and Sacramento.

1. Tampa Bay Rowdies wins by a two-goal margin or greater vs. Pittsburgh, draws vs. Louisville City FC – 64pts
2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC loses by a two-goal margin or greater vs. Tampa Bay, draws vs. Detroit City FC – 64pts
3. Sacramento Republic FC wins vs. Rio Grande Valley FC, wins vs. Miami FC – 64pts

Tampa Bay Rowdies finish 1st in East via H2H with Pittsburgh (1-1-0, positive goal differential)
Sacramento Republic FC drew with both Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, ends on 18 wins, no H2H tiebreaker
Tampa Bay Rowdies win Players’ Shield with best record on total wins tiebreaker – 64pts, 19 wins

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Scenario Two – Tampa Bay wins the Players’ Shield, Pittsburgh finishes 1st in the Eastern Conference, Pt. 1

Now, let’s reverse the roles and get a bit more complicated. If Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh draw on Saturday, it would move the Hounds to 64 points and the Rowdies to 61 points, while earning Pittsburgh the head-to-head tiebreaker with a 1-0-1 record against Tampa Bay. What would then need to happen is Pittsburgh loses away to Detroit City FC, Tampa Bay wins away at Louisville City FC, and Sacramento Republic once again wins out, leaving all three teams on 64 points.

The Hounds would retain first place in the Eastern Conference due to their head-to-head record against the Rowdies, but that wouldn’t be applicable in the Players’ Shield standings due to Sacramento having drawn against both Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay in their regular season meetings.

As such, Tampa Bay would again claim the Players’ Shield with 19 wins to 18 each for Pittsburgh and Sacramento, while finishing second in the Eastern Conference.

1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC draw vs. Tampa Bay, loses to Detroit City FC – 64pts
2. Tampa Bay Rowdies draw vs. Pittsburgh, wins vs. Louisville City FC – 64pts
3. Sacramento Republic FC wins vs. Rio Grande Valley FC, wins vs. Miami FC – 64pts

Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC finishes 1st in Eastern Conference on H2H vs. Tampa Bay (1-0-1) with 18 wins
Sacramento Republic FC drew with both Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, ends on 18 wins, no H2H tiebreaker
Tampa Bay Rowdies win Players’ Shield with best record on total wins tiebreakers – 64pts, 19 wins

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Scenario Three – Tampa Bay wins the Players’ Shield, Pittsburgh finishes 1st in the Eastern Conference, Pt. 2

OK, so what happens if the Rowdies defeat the Hounds by a single-goal margin? In that case, both the head-to-head tiebreakers would be discarded as each team would have won once and the goal differential would be even between the sides. Should Tampa Bay then draw against Louisville City FC and Pittsburgh draw against Detroit City FC in their final games, leaving both on 64 points, the tiebreaker would move to points-per-game against in-conference opposition.

Here the Hounds have a decided edge. If this scenario plays out, Pittsburgh would have averaged 2.05ppg over its 22 regular season games against Eastern Conference opposition, while Tampa Bay would sit at 1.77ppg, leaving it in second place.

But, should Sacramento win out to also end on 64 points, the points-per-game tiebreaker would be discarded due to the differing balanced schedule Republic FC played against its Western Conference opponents.

So, once again, Tampa Bay would win the Players’ Shield with 19 total wins, while Pittsburgh would finish first in the Eastern Conference.

1. Tampa Bay Rowdies win by a one-goal margin vs. Pittsburgh, draw vs. Louisville City FC – 64pts
2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC loses by a one-goal margin vs. Tampa Bay, draw vs. Detroit City FC – 64pts
3. Sacramento Republic FC wins vs. Rio Grande Valley FC, wins vs. Miami FC – 64pts

Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and Tampa Bay Rowdies end 1-1-0 head-to-head, even goal differential
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC finish with 2.05ppg vs. Eastern Conference for 1st place
Tampa Bay Rowdies finish with 1.77ppg vs. Eastern Conference for 2nd place
Sacramento Republic FC drew with both Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, ends on 18 wins, no H2H tiebreaker
Tampa Bay Rowdies win Players’ Shield with best record on total wins tiebreakers – 64pts, 19 wins

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There are now two ways this can play out. Revealing this could be the ultimate damper on proceedings, where either Pittsburgh wins this weekend and clinches the Players’ Shield outright, or Republic FC drops points on the road against Rio Grande Valley FC, leaving no possibility of a three-way tie.

Or since we’ve now spoken this into existence, the Soccer Gods will act accordingly.

As soccer statistics legend Paul Carr says, though, it’s hard not to #RootForChaos going into the final weekend of the season.