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USL Insights – Showdown at Slugger

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 10/25/17, 3:34PM EDT

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What to watch for when Louisville hosts Rochester on Saturday


Photo courtesy Em-Dash Photography / Louisville City FC

Louisville City FC and the Rochester Rhinos have become very familiar with one another over the past three seasons, with the two clubs having reached the USL Cup Playoffs on all three occasions. In seven prior meetings, each side has claimed victory twice, with the teams finishing all square the other three times.

Louisville has held the upper hand this season, however, earning a 1-0-1 record in the regular season that helped City earn the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference for the first time. With the No. 4-seed Rhinos set to visit Slugger Field this Saturday night in the Eastern Conference Semifinals of the 2017 USL Cup Playoffs, here are three things to watch for in the matchup.

1. RHINOS LOAD UP LEFT

One noticeable trend for the Rochester Rhinos in both of their meetings with Louisville this season was the way the side appeared to prioritize putting pressure into the left channel when it was on the attack. When the Rhinos first visited Slugger Field back on Sept. 20, five of their six shots in the game, including Jochen Graf’s goal, came from the left side of the penalty area or just outside. Looking at the data from that contest and the rematch between the teams in Rochester 10 days later, the majority of Graf’s touches came in that same area sitting in the outer half of the penalty area’s left-hand side.

This would indicate the Rhinos believe there’s a space that can be exploited in the area usually patrolled by Louisville defender Sean Totsch and wingback Kyle Smith, with the likes of Wal Fall and Kenardo Forbes – and even in the Sept. 20 contest theoretical right winger Julian Buescher – also looking to try and utilize that space. It will be interesting to see if that’s a point of emphasis for the Rhinos in their third go-around with Louisville this season.

Jochen Graf, Rochester Rhinos
Touches at Louisville City FC, 9/20/17

2. MIDFIELD PRESSURE

Rochester Rhinos midfielder Wal Fall has been a vital piece of the club’s success this season, but in the first meeting between Rochester and Louisville on Sept. 20 at Slugger Field, the roving midfielder had one of the tougher outings of his season. Fall completed only 35 of 51 passes overall (68.6 percent) and only 51.5 percent of his passes in Louisville’s half, a significant decrease from his season averages (75.2 percent overall / 67.4 percent opp. half). 

This was in part because of the performance of Louisville holding midfielder Paolo DelPiccolo, who didn’t have stellar passing numbers himself, but helped stifle both Fall and Rhinos playmaker Kenardo Forbes over the 90 minutes. DelPiccolo’s five tackles and four interceptions helped limit Fall to only one chance created and no shots in the contest as Louisville walked away with a 2-1 victory.

In the rematch between the sides on Sept. 30 at Capelli Sport Stadium, the Rhinos adjusted. Instead of pairing Fall with Kenardo Forbes in the center of its four-man midfield, Forbes slid to a more advanced wide role, and Mike Garzi was brought in to act as the anchor for the midfield. As a result, Fall was freed somewhat from a direct matchup with DelPiccolo, which saw his numbers in the opposing half rise to a 66.7 percent passing accuracy rate with two chances created, one successful cross and one shot. 

Fall (Blue) vs. DelPiccolo (Green) 
Touches, #ROCvLOU, 9/3017

With 23 of Fall’s 28 created chances this season coming from open play, ensuring the rangy midfielder has the chance to find pockets of space in the attacking third could be key to Rochester’s success. DelPiccolo could be tasked with again making it a long night at Slugger Field in the center of the park for one of the Rhinos’ biggest wheels.

3. SPENCER’S SPACE

Saturday’s matchup looks set to feature two of the top target forwards in the USL this season, with the Rochester Rhinos’ Jochen Graf and Louisville City FC’s Luke Spencer both playing important roles not only in the regular season but also in the opening playoff wins for both teams.

Spencer’s 10 goals in the regular season led Louisville, but what might have gone overlooked was the work the 6-foot-2 striker did outside the penalty area, where his ability to link with the rest of City’s attacking pieces helped Louisville soar to new heights in the regular season. Spencer’s involvement in the build-up to City’s attack saw him sit second on the team with 34 chances created from open play, and this past Saturday in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals against Bethlehem he was excellent again both in the build-up and final execution of Louisville’s scoring moves.

Spencer’s size makes him a handful for any defense, and the matchup with Rhinos defenders Joe Farrell and Ryan Felix should be a real treat. If Spencer can connect consistently again with the speed Louisville possesses throughout its attacking midfield, City could be well on its way to a third consecutive trip to the Eastern Conference Final.

Luke Spencer, Louisville City FC
Passes/Shots vs. Bethlehem, 10/20/17

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