Some years as a forward, it feels like you can’t miss.

Take, for example, Nick Markanich at the Charleston Battery in 2024, when he went on an all-time heater to set a USL Championship-record with 28 goals in the regular season on his way to a transfer to CD Castellon, which is currently vying for promotion to La Liga at the midway point of the current season.

For others, though, there are times where the chances just aren’t falling for you. Through more modern metrics such as Expected Goals – based on pre-shot data – and Expected Goals on Target – based on post-shot data, effectively evaluating the position on frame as well as the type of finish – we can get an understanding of which players might have been running a little hot, and which were arguably unlucky to not hit the back of the net more often over a spell of games.

Here are six players from that second category, whose underlying numbers were good but overall numbers didn’t quite measure up, which makes them prime candidates for improvement over the upcoming campaign.

Mukwelle Akale – Louisville City FC

As a wide creator, we had Mukwelle Akale pegged as one of the better available free agents in the USL Championship just over a month ago, and shortly after he was brought on board by Louisville City FC to bring his one-on-one ability from the right flank to Lynn Family Stadium.

What shouldn’t go overlooked is how Akale probably should have found the net more often than the nine tallies he recorded over the past two seasons across the regular season and playoffs for United. Not only did Akale get into good shooting positions consistently for New Mexico with a 13.04 Expected Goals mark, the underlying numbers on his finishing were good as well – he logged a 13.15 Expected Goals on Target mark and a shooting accuracy rate of 59.2 percent.

Akale was essentially unfortunate to see some of his better opportunities be denied by excellent goalkeeping, which left his shot conversion rate well below league average at 11.8 percent. With a little better fortune and the talent surrounding him at Louisville, he could be poised for a breakout campaign.

Albert Dikwa – Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC

Yes, this is an obvious call with the 2023 Golden Boot winner having logged only three goals in 1,630 regular season minutes for Rhode Island FC, but the reality is Albert Dikwa also ran pretty cold with the chances he got during the past campaign for the 2024 Eastern Conference title winners. The 28-year-old posted an Expected Goals mark of 4.95xG and a shooting accuracy rate of 55.2 percent but ended up with just a 10.3 percent shot conversion rate before finally breaking out with a two-goal performance in the playoffs against North Carolina FC.

That shot conversion rate is particularly surprising, given Dikwa’s history in the league. Since the start of the 2018 season, he’s averaged a 20.1 percent shot conversion rate across the regular season and playoffs. That hasn’t always paid off with goals – in the 2021 season in Pittsburgh he notched only two goals on 6.09 Expected Goals – but the following two seasons saw him strike 31 times. We see the potential for another big uptick as Dikwa heads back to Highmark Stadium.

Cal Jennings – Free Agent

With double-digit goals in five consecutive seasons and a strike rate of a goal every 134.9 minutes, there’s no question as to Cal Jennings’ position as one of the USL Championship’s most prolific strikers. But what if we told you that last season he was also one of the unluckiest forwards in the league?

While finishing a goal back of Oakland Roots SC’s Peter Wilson for the Golden Boot on 17 regular season tallies, Jennings not only put up a league-leading 19.49 Expected Goals mark, but had a post-shot mark of 21.08 Expected Goals on Target. That sat 5.34 ahead of Wilson’s mark of 15.74xGOT, which ended up making the difference between Jennings finally claiming the first Golden Boot of his career.

We’re still yet to find out where Jennings will be plying his trade this season, but if he returns to the Championship the club that signs him will be bringing in a top marksman. Sitting on 82 regular season goals at the end of the 2025 season, Jennings would be in line to reach the century mark if things tilt more his way in 2026.

Michee Ngalina – Hartford Athletic

During the 2025 regular season there were few teams that created chances as consistently as Hartford Athletic. The campaign that Michee Ngalina experienced, though, was somewhat symbolic of the way those chances didn’t always result in goals.

The 2022 USL Championship Young Player of the Year tallied five times in the regular season but posted a 7.34 Expected Goals mark and 7.62 Expected Goals on Target mark on a 61.5 shooting accuracy rate. There were simply games – such as Hartford’s visit to Detroit City last July – where the Congolese winger just didn’t have the run of play go in his favor.

Ngalina’s bad luck didn’t just apply to his goalscoring but also marginally to his assist numbers as well. Overall, he posted an Expected Goals+Assists mark of 10.87xG+A but ended up with only eight goal contributions in 1,902 minutes. If things start to go Ngalina’s way this year, it could result in a big campaign individually and for Athletic overall.

JJ Williams – Rhode Island FC (2024-25)

If there’s been a fatal flaw in JJ Williams’ underlying numbers over his career in the USL Championship, it’s been his post-shot data. In the big picture, the 6-foot-4 forward’s 48 regular season goals basically match up with his 48.65 Expected Goals. Then you get to Williams’ 35.73 Expected Goals on Target mark and it illustrates why the 28-year-old has had only two double-digit scoring seasons in league play.

This past season with Rhode Island FC, though, Williams’ post-shot numbers (6.23xGOT) matched up with his overall Expected Goals number (6.63xG) in the regular season, both of which sat narrowly ahead of his actual total of six goals in 17 appearances. We’ve written before about how impactful Willams can be when he’s on the field for RIFC – this past campaign his Goals Added above Average per 90 minutes mark ranked second in the league across the regular season and playoffs – and that gives us optimism he can help RIFC’s attack push on this year.

Ethan Zubak – Orange County SC (2025)

This past season, Ethan Zubak became only the third player in Orange County SC’s history to record consecutive seasons with double-digit goals after Michael Seaton (2018-19) and Milan Iloski (2022-23) and equaled his own single-season best in the USL Championship with 11 tallies. The thing about that is, with a little better fortune, he’d have blown away his prior best at the LA Galaxy II in 2018 and reached the half-century mark for regular season goals in his career.

Zubak recorded 11 goals on 11.4 Expected Goals, but his most eye-catching number was his post-shot data, which saw him log 13.98 Expected Goals on Target. That’s verging on the same bad luck that befell Mukwelle Akale over the past two seasons in New Mexico, only over the course of just a single season for the 27-year-old SoCal native. Should Zubak continue to put himself in good positions for OCSC this season, the chances will continue to come. If he gets a better run of the green, it could lead to a big campaign.