Upsets.

When it comes to the USL Championship Playoffs, you know they’re coming. The only question is when and where.

Last season, three lower-seeds took victory on the road to kick off the postseason across the Eastern and Western Conference Quarterfinals, setting brackets alight in a manner that’s become an annual tradition.

(The only year the two No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Championship Final? That was 2022 when San Antonio FC defeated Louisville City FC.)

So, which clubs should be on upset alert this weekend? Here are three candidates that stand out.

3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC (vs. Hartford Athletic)

We’re sorry, Hounds fans. We genuinely want the best for you, but this has danger written all over it. Yes, you’re 13-2-2 against Hartford Athletic all-time, and you swept the regular season series, but the reality is this Hartford team is different to the one you’ve picked on year-in and year-out over six seasons. They’ve got personality, they’ve got a dynamite attack, and they’ve shown this year when the chips are down, they can come up with the goods on the road.

By contrast, there’s been nothing more predictable in Pittsburgh of late than an early playoff exit. The eight season playoff streak is great, but there have been only two wins in the prior seven trips, and one of those via a penalty shootout. As good as the Hounds continue to be defensively, goals win games, and that’s where Athletic has the edge.

2. El Paso Locomotive FC (vs. Phoenix Rising FC)

We want to first say, El Paso Locomotive FC is a team that we like. The improvement this season from last year’s last-place finish to the top-four is at least somewhat down to the muddled nature of the West overall this year – Locomotive improved from a 0.94ppg mark to a 1.37ppg mark this year, not completely groundbreaking – but they’ve got good underlying numbers and talented players like Amando Moreno and Eric Calvillo, the latter of whom has won this before with Orange County SC.

So why do we feel like we can’t trust this side? Maybe it’s that we’ve never really known which version of the side is going to show up. Locomotive only won consecutive games twice in the regular season. It only won twice in its last 10 games of the regular season. Phoenix Rising might have suffered from the same challenges, but with three consecutive shutouts to end the regular season and its own certified game-changers, the 2023 title-winners feel like they’re in a better space right now.

1. North Carolina FC (vs. Loudoun United FC)  

This is somewhat counterintuitive. In a one-off game, what does it matter how you played in the regular season? After all, Orange County SC’s underlying numbers were awful last year – how does a -17.38 Expected Goal Differential grab you – but it still found a way to deliver an upset of Memphis 901 FC on the road and then take eventual title-winner Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC to extra time before falling.

At the same time, NCFC’s been finding way to win games at key moments, but it does feel like at some point the bill’s going to come due. North Carolina posted the third-lowest Expected Goals mark in the league (30.42xG) and had a -10.85 Expected Goal Differential. Loudoun United is coming into its first postseason with better numbers, even with last weekend’s defeat. It feels like the visitors will be ready to turn the tables.

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