1. FC Tulsa
Record: 15-5-9, 54pts
Playoffs Odds: IN
Projected Finish: 1st (55.9 points)
Max Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. COS (10/25)
Outlook: Tulsa will use Saturday’s game at home to Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC as a final tune-up ahead of its first home playoff game in club history next weekend. The outcome of the game could have a serious impact on the playoff picture, though, with the Switchbacks entering the game knowing a win would guarantee a playoff spot, and any other result leaving the door open to missing out.
2. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 13-7-9, 48pts
Playoffs Odds: IN
Projected Finish: 2nd (49.0 points)
Max Points Available: 51pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. MIA (10/25)
Outlook: Sacramento locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference with its victory on Wednesday night. Now it will play out its final game of the regular season against Miami FC with goalkeeper Danny Vitiello on the verge of setting the USL Championship’s all-time record for regular season shutouts.
3. New Mexico United
Record: 13-10-6, 45pts
Playoffs Odds: IN
Projected Finish: 3rd (46.4 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. RI (10/24)
Outlook: New Mexico will be the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference after Sacramento Republic FC’s victory on Wednesday night, making this Friday night’s game against Rhode Island FC a final tune-up for the postseason.
4. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 10-8-11, 41pts
Playoffs Odds: IN
Projected Finish: 4th (42.2 points)
Max Points Available: 44pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: @ SA (10/25)
Outlook: Locomotive booked its postseason return without kicking a ball thanks to Lexington dropping points on Friday night and the side would have clinched a top-four finish if it had held on for victory late against FC Tulsa on Saturday. As it stands, El Paso’s still in good shape to host a playoff game, sitting with a superior points-per-game vs. In-Conference opposition mark (1.57ppg) to Phoenix Rising FC (1.45ppg) as it visits San Antonio FC. With Phoenix’s conference slate played out as it faces Pittsburgh, a draw would be enough to ensure El Paso finishes fourth, but a loss would open the door for Phoenix to jump past them with a win against the Hounds.
El Paso Locomotive FC Clinches a Top-Four Berth IF:
1. El Paso Locomotive FC wins at San Antonio FC, moves to 44pts
2. El Paso Locomotive FC draws at San Antonio FC, moves to 42pts
El Paso holds points-per-game vs. In-Conference opposition tiebreaker over Phoenix Rising FC
3. El Paso Locomotive FC loses vs. San Antonio FC, remains on 41pts
AND Phoenix Rising FC fails to take victory at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, ends on 40/39pts
5. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 9-8-12, 39pts
Playoffs Odds: 93%
Projected Finish: 5th (40.4 points)
Max Points Available: 42pts
Magic Number: 1
Up Next: @ PIT (10/25)
Outlook: Phoenix’s second consecutive victory moved it within a point of a postseason berth, meaning a win or a draw at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC would secure a playoff spot. A win could also see Rising jump past El Paso Locomotive FC into fourth should Locomotive fall against San Antonio FC in its finale, but Phoenix’s 0-3-1 record against Orange County SC and Lexington SC means it’s not completely safe from elimination. A loss to the Hounds and victories for all four teams below them would see Rising miss out on the playoffs.
Phoenix Rising FC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:
1. Phoenix Rising FC wins at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, moves to 42pts
2. Phoenix Rising FC draws at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, moves to 40pts
3. Phoenix Rising FC loses at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, remains on 39pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC draws/loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 38/37pts
OR San Antonio FC draws/loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 38/37pts
OR Orange County draws/loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37/36pts
OR Lexington SC draws/loses at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37/36pts
Phoenix Rising FC Clinches a Top-Four Finish IF:
1. Phoenix Rising FC wins at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, moves to 42pts
AND El Paso Locomotive FC loses at San Antonio FC, ends on 41pts
6. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 10-12-7, 37pts
Playoffs Odds: 80%
Projected Finish: 7th (38.4 points)
Max Points Available: 40pts
Magic Number: 3
Up Next: @ TUL (10/25)
Outlook: The Switchbacks came through with a victory as their other postseason rivals faltered, putting the defending title holders above the playoff line and with some numbers in their favor going to the final game. A victory away at FC Tulsa would guarantee Colorado Springs returns to the playoffs for a fifth consecutive season, but a draw or a loss would mean the side needs help from elsewhere to end the season in the top eight.
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:
1. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC wins at FC Tulsa, ends on 40pts
2. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC draws at FC Tulsa, ends on 38pts
AND San Antonio FC draws/loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 38/37pts
Colorado Springs holds points-per-game vs. In-Conference opposition over San Antonio
OR Orange County SC draws/loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37/36pts
OR Lexington SC draws/loses at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37/36pts
3a. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
AND San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
Colorado Springs holds points-per-game vs. In-Conference opposition over San Antonio
OR Orange County SC loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 36pts
OR Lexington SC loses at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 36pts
3b. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
AND San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
AND Orange County SC wins/loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 39/36pts
Colorado Springs finishes first in three-team mini-group
1. Colorado Springs – 2-2-0, 6pts, +1GD
2. San Antonio – 2-2-0, 6pts, Even GD
3. Lexington – 2-2-0, 6pts, -1GD
3c. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
AND San Antonio FC wins/draws vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 40/38pts
AND Orange County SC wins/loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 39/36pts
AND Lexington SC draws/loses at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37/36pts
Colorado Springs holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Lexington SC (1-1-0, +1GD)
7. San Antonio FC
Record: 10-12-7, 37pts
Playoffs Odds: 82%
Projected Finish: 6th (38.5 points)
Max Points Available: 40pts
Magic Number: 3
Up Next: vs. ELP (10/25)
Outlook: San Antonio remains in control of its path to the postseason as it hosts Copa Tejas rival El Paso Locomotive on Saturday but could be in a precarious position if it fails to take victory. The marginally good news for SAFC is it split all three head-to-head tiebreakers with Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, Orange County SC and Lexington SC in the campaign – and has a +1 goal differential against OCSC – giving it a few additional outs if it loses and things fall into a mini-group among three-or-more clubs.
San Antonio FC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:
1. San Antonio FC wins vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 40pts
2. San Antonio FC draws vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 38pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses vs. FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
OR Orange County SC draws/loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37/36pts
OR Lexington SC draws/loses at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37/36pts
3a. San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND – Orange County SC loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 36pts
OR – Lexington SC loses at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 36pts
3b. San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
AND Orange County SC draws vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37pts
AND Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
San Antonio finishes second in four-team mini-group on 37pts
1. Orange County – 3-1-2, 11pts
2. San Antonio – 3-3-0, 9pts
3. Lexington – 2-2-2, 8pts
4. Colorado Springs – 2-4-0, 6pts
3c. San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
AND Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
AND Orange County SC wins/loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 39/36pts
San Antonio finishes second in three-team mini-group on 37pts
1. Colorado Springs – 2-2-0, 6pts, +1GD
2. San Antonio – 2-2-0, 6pts, Even GD
3. Lexington – 2-2-0, 6pts, -1GD
3d. San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
AND Orange County SC draws vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37pts
AND Lexington SC wins/loses at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 39/36pts
San Antonio finishes second in three-team mini-group
1. Orange County – 3-1-0, 9pts
2. San Antonio – 2-2-0, 6pts
3. Colorado Springs – 1-3-0, 3pts
3e. San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC wins/draws at FC Tulsa, ends on 38/40pts
AND Orange County SC draws vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37pts
AND Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
San Antonio finishes first in three-team mini-group
1. San Antonio – 2-2-0, 6pts, +1GD
2. Lexington – 1-1-2, 5pts, even GD
3. Orange County – 1-1-2, 5pts, -1GD
3f. San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC wins/draws at FC Tulsa, ends on 38/40pts
AND Lexington SC wins at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 39pts
AND Orange County SC draws vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37pts
San Antonio holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Orange County (1-1-0, +1GD)
3g. San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC wins/draws at FC Tulsa, ends on 40/38pts
AND Orange County SC wins vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 39pts
AND Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
San Antonio holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Lexington (10 total wins vs. 9 total wins)
8. Orange County SC
Record: 9-11-9, 36pts
Playoffs Odds: 73%
Projected Finish: 8th (37.1 points)
Max Points Available: 39pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. IND (10/25)
Outlook: Orange County remained in the top eight thanks to its draw against Louisville City on Saturday night and now has multiple factors in its favor as it tries to clinch a playoff berth at home to Indy Eleven. A victory would assure OCSC of a place in the playoffs – even in the situation of a three-way tie should Phoenix Rising lose to Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and Lexington SC win at Oakland Roots, OCSC would finish second in a potential three-team mini-group – and the club’s two-game sweep of Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC would also be a strong chip in its favor should it draw and end up in a mini-group scenario.
Orange County SC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:
1a. Orange County SC wins vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 39pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC draws/loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 38/37pts
OR San Antonio FC draws/loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 38/37pts
OR Lexington SC draws/loses at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37/36pts
1b. Orange County SC wins vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 39pts
AND Phoenix Rising FC loses at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, ends on 39pts
AND Lexington SC wins at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 39pts
- Orange County finishes second in three-team mini-group
1. Lexington – 2-0-2, 8pts
2. Orange County – 1-1-2, 5pts
3. Phoenix – 1-3-0, 3pts
2a. Orange County SC draws vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
AND San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
Orange County finishes first in four-team mini-group
1. Orange County – 3-1-2, 11pts
2. San Antonio – 3-3-0, 9pts
3. Lexington – 2-2-2, 8pts
4. Colorado Springs – 2-4-0, 6pts
2b. Orange County SC draws vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
AND Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
AND San Antonio FC wins/draws vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 40/38pts
Orange County finishes first in three-team mini-group
1. Orange County – 2-0-2, 8pts
2. Lexington – 1-1-2, 5pts
3. Colorado Springs – 1-3-0, 3pts
2c. Orange County SC draws vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37pts
AND Lexington SC draws/loses at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37/36pts
AND San Antonio FC wins/draws vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 40/38pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC wins/draws at FC Tulsa, ends on 40/38pts
Orange County wins head-to-head tiebreaker over Lexington on 37pts via points-per-game vs. In-Conference opposition
3. Orange County SC loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 36pts
AND Lexington SC loses at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 36pts
Orange County wins head-to-head tiebreaker over Lexington via points-per-game vs. In-Conference opposition
9. Lexington SC
Record: 9-11-9, 36pts
Playoffs Odds: 65%
Projected Finish: 9th (37.1 points)
Max Points Available: 39pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: @ OAK (10/25)
Outlook: The combination of Lexington’s draw with victories for Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC and a draw for Orange County SC on Saturday night left the Championship newcomers as the odd team out going to the final game of the regular season. Victory at Oakland Roots SC could be enough to get Lexington in should one of their other rivals slip up – or in the case of a three-way mini-group with Orange County SC and Phoenix Rising FC – and those head-to-head numbers can work for Lexington with a draw if it ends up in a three-way tiebreaker. A defeat would ensure the end of the season, with Orange County holding the tiebreaker between the two clubs.
Lexington SC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:
1a. Lexington SC wins at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 39pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC draws/loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 38/37pts
OR San Antonio FC draws/loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 38/37pts
OR Orange County SC draws/loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37/36pts
1b. Lexington SC wins at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 39pts
AND Phoenix Rising FC loses at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, ends on 39pts
AND Orange County SC wins vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 39pts
Lexington finishes first in three-team mini-group
1. Lexington – 2-0-2, 8pts
2. Orange County – 1-1-2, 5pts
3. Phoenix – 1-3-0, 3pts
2a. Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
AND San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND Orange County SC draws vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37pts
Lexington finishes third in four-team mini-group
1. Orange County – 3-1-2, 11pts
2. San Antonio – 3-3-0, 9pts
3. Lexington – 2-2-2, 8pts
4. Colorado Springs – 2-4-0, 6pts
2b. Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
AND San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND Orange County SC draws vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC win/draw at FC Tulsa, end on 40/38pts
Lexington finishes second in three-team mini-group
1. San Antonio FC – 2-2-0, 6pts, +1GD
2. Lexington – 1-1-2, 5pts, even GD
3. Orange County – 1-1-2, 5pts, -1GD
2c. Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
AND Orange County SC draws vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37pts
AND San Antonio FC wins/draws vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 40/38pts
Lexington finishes second in three-team mini-group
1. Orange County – 2-0-2, 8pts
2. Lexington – 1-1-2, 5pts
3. Colorado Springs – 1-3-0, 3pts
2d. Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
AND Orange County SC loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 36pts