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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – Week 34

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 10/25/25, 7:30AM EDT

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Eight clubs are vying to claim five playoff berths on the final day of the regular season, with top-four finishes also at stake


Saturday night's Copa Tejas clash between San Antonio FC and El Paso Locomotive FC at Toyota Field could be pivotal in the Western Conference playoff race. | Photo courtesy Ivan Pierre Aguirre / El Paso Locomotive FC

Welcome to the latest edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs presented by Terminix, where we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2025 USL Championship Playoffs.

Five playoff berths are up for grabs among eight teams as we head to the final weekend of the regular season, with homefield advantage also still up for grabs in the Eastern and Western Conference. With the schedule set-up, the final berth in both conferences may not be decided until the final set of 10 p.m. ET kickoffs concludes, giving us plenty of potential for drama.

Once again, we’re grateful to our friend John Morrissey at USL Tactics for providing the data for playoff projections. Now, here are four games to watch this weekend and an overview of where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Loudoun United FC vs. North Carolina FC
Saturday, 5 p.m. ET | ESPN+ | Segra Field

Both Loudoun United FC and North Carolina FC could finish as high as third place in the final standings with a victory while locking the other into sixth place and setting up a potential immediate postseason rematch. For that to happen, on one hand Loudoun would need Hartford Athletic to fall at Louisville City FC and have Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC fail to take victory at home to Phoenix Rising FC, and on the other North Carolina FC would need both Hartford and Pittsburgh to fail to take victory. A draw, meanwhile, would likely leave both hitting the road to open their postseason unless the Hounds fall at home to Phoenix, setting up a three-way tiebreaker that would see Loudoun come out on top with eight points in a three-team mini-group.

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs. Detroit City FC
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN+ | Al Lang Stadium

It’s a simple equation for Detroit City – win and you’re in. Should the Tampa Bay Rowdies pull level with Detroit with all three points, however, it would set up a tense postgame wait for the result between Orange County SC and Indy Eleven, where the Boys in Blue would have the chance to jump past Detroit with victory on the road or set up a three-way tiebreaker with a draw that would tip the way of the Rowdies if all three teams end on 36 points.

San Antonio FC vs. El Paso Locomotive FC
Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN+ | Toyota Field

There’s something at stake for both clubs beyond determining which side takes home the Copa Tejas trophy with San Antonio FC in need of a win to guarantee its postseason berth, and a top-four finish guaranteed for El Paso Locomotive if it takes all three points to even the regular season series. San Antonio has gone without a goal for a club-record five consecutive games, however, and a draw or a defeat would lend itself to an anxious wait with the potential both Orange County SC and Lexington SC could overtake them with victories in later kickoffs.

Orange County SC vs. Indy Eleven
Saturday, 10 p.m. ET | ESPN+ | Championship Soccer Stadium

Orange County SC’s clash with Indy Eleven carries weight across both the Eastern and Western Conferences with Indy set to know if it can reach the playoffs by the time kickoff arrives and Orange County in the middle of a complicated set of scenarios due to its regular season record. Indy must win – should the Tampa Bay Rowdies defeat Detroit City, a draw would set up a three-way tie that the Rowdies would come out on top of in a mini-group – while Orange County has some positive numbers when it comes to tiebreakers, including a far superior mark in points-per-game vs. In-Conference opposition (1.41ppg through 22 games) to Lexington SC (1.14ppg through 21 games) that would carry it through with all three points. If the game is tied late, we could be in for some fireworks.

Western Conference

1. FC Tulsa
Record: 15-5-9, 54pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 1st (55.9 points)
Max Points Available: 57pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. COS (10/25)
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Outlook: Tulsa will use Saturday’s game at home to Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC as a final tune-up ahead of its first home playoff game in club history next weekend. The outcome of the game could have a serious impact on the playoff picture, though, with the Switchbacks entering the game knowing a win would guarantee a playoff spot, and any other result leaving the door open to missing out.
2. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 13-7-9, 48pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 2nd (49.0 points)
Max Points Available: 51pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. MIA (10/25)
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Outlook: Sacramento locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference with its victory on Wednesday night. Now it will play out its final game of the regular season against Miami FC with goalkeeper Danny Vitiello on the verge of setting the USL Championship’s all-time record for regular season shutouts.
3. New Mexico United
Record: 13-10-6, 45pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 3rd (46.4 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. RI (10/24)
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Outlook: New Mexico will be the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference after Sacramento Republic FC’s victory on Wednesday night, making this Friday night’s game against Rhode Island FC a final tune-up for the postseason.
4. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 10-8-11, 41pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 4th (42.2 points)
Max Points Available: 44pts

Magic Number: IN

Up Next: @ SA (10/25)
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Outlook: Locomotive booked its postseason return without kicking a ball thanks to Lexington dropping points on Friday night and the side would have clinched a top-four finish if it had held on for victory late against FC Tulsa on Saturday. As it stands, El Paso’s still in good shape to host a playoff game, sitting with a superior points-per-game vs. In-Conference opposition mark (1.57ppg) to Phoenix Rising FC (1.45ppg) as it visits San Antonio FC. With Phoenix’s conference slate played out as it faces Pittsburgh, a draw would be enough to ensure El Paso finishes fourth, but a loss would open the door for Phoenix to jump past them with a win against the Hounds.

El Paso Locomotive FC Clinches a Top-Four Berth IF:

1. El Paso Locomotive FC wins at San Antonio FC, moves to 44pts

2. El Paso Locomotive FC draws at San Antonio FC, moves to 42pts
El Paso holds points-per-game vs. In-Conference opposition tiebreaker over Phoenix Rising FC

3. El Paso Locomotive FC loses vs. San Antonio FC, remains on 41pts
AND Phoenix Rising FC fails to take victory at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, ends on 40/39pts
5. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 9-8-12, 39pts

Playoffs Odds: 93%

Projected Finish: 5th (40.4 points)
Max Points Available: 42pts

Magic Number: 1

Up Next: @ PIT (10/25)
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Outlook: Phoenix’s second consecutive victory moved it within a point of a postseason berth, meaning a win or a draw at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC would secure a playoff spot. A win could also see Rising jump past El Paso Locomotive FC into fourth should Locomotive fall against San Antonio FC in its finale, but Phoenix’s 0-3-1 record against Orange County SC and Lexington SC means it’s not completely safe from elimination. A loss to the Hounds and victories for all four teams below them would see Rising miss out on the playoffs.

Phoenix Rising FC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1. Phoenix Rising FC wins at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, moves to 42pts

2. Phoenix Rising FC draws at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, moves to 40pts

3. Phoenix Rising FC loses at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, remains on 39pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC draws/loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 38/37pts
OR San Antonio FC draws/loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 38/37pts
OR Orange County draws/loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37/36pts
OR Lexington SC draws/loses at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37/36pts

Phoenix Rising FC Clinches a Top-Four Finish IF:

1. Phoenix Rising FC wins at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, moves to 42pts
AND El Paso Locomotive FC loses at San Antonio FC, ends on 41pts
6. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 10-12-7, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 80%

Projected Finish: 7th (38.4 points)
Max Points Available: 40pts

Magic Number: 3

Up Next: @ TUL (10/25)
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Outlook: The Switchbacks came through with a victory as their other postseason rivals faltered, putting the defending title holders above the playoff line and with some numbers in their favor going to the final game. A victory away at FC Tulsa would guarantee Colorado Springs returns to the playoffs for a fifth consecutive season, but a draw or a loss would mean the side needs help from elsewhere to end the season in the top eight.

Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC wins at FC Tulsa, ends on 40pts

2. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC draws at FC Tulsa, ends on 38pts
AND San Antonio FC draws/loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 38/37pts
Colorado Springs holds points-per-game vs. In-Conference opposition over San Antonio
OR Orange County SC draws/loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37/36pts
OR Lexington SC draws/loses at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37/36pts

3a. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
AND San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
Colorado Springs holds points-per-game vs. In-Conference opposition over San Antonio
OR Orange County SC loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 36pts
OR Lexington SC loses at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 36pts

3b. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
AND San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
AND Orange County SC wins/loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 39/36pts
Colorado Springs finishes first in three-team mini-group

1. Colorado Springs – 2-2-0, 6pts, +1GD
2. San Antonio – 2-2-0, 6pts, Even GD
3. Lexington – 2-2-0, 6pts, -1GD

3c. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
AND San Antonio FC wins/draws vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 40/38pts
AND Orange County SC wins/loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 39/36pts
AND Lexington SC draws/loses at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37/36pts
Colorado Springs holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Lexington SC (1-1-0, +1GD)
7. San Antonio FC
Record: 10-12-7, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 82%

Projected Finish: 6th (38.5 points)
Max Points Available: 40pts

Magic Number: 3

Up Next: vs. ELP (10/25)
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Outlook: San Antonio remains in control of its path to the postseason as it hosts Copa Tejas rival El Paso Locomotive on Saturday but could be in a precarious position if it fails to take victory. The marginally good news for SAFC is it split all three head-to-head tiebreakers with Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, Orange County SC and Lexington SC in the campaign – and has a +1 goal differential against OCSC – giving it a few additional outs if it loses and things fall into a mini-group among three-or-more clubs.

San Antonio FC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1. San Antonio FC wins vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 40pts

2. San Antonio FC draws vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 38pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses vs. FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
OR Orange County SC draws/loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37/36pts
OR Lexington SC draws/loses at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37/36pts

3a. San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND – Orange County SC loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 36pts
OR – Lexington SC loses at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 36pts

3b. San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
AND Orange County SC draws vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37pts
AND Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
San Antonio finishes second in four-team mini-group on 37pts

1. Orange County – 3-1-2, 11pts
2. San Antonio – 3-3-0, 9pts
3. Lexington – 2-2-2, 8pts
4. Colorado Springs – 2-4-0, 6pts

3c. San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
AND Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
AND Orange County SC wins/loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 39/36pts
San Antonio finishes second in three-team mini-group on 37pts

1. Colorado Springs – 2-2-0, 6pts, +1GD
2. San Antonio – 2-2-0, 6pts, Even GD
3. Lexington – 2-2-0, 6pts, -1GD

3d. San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
AND Orange County SC draws vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37pts
AND Lexington SC wins/loses at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 39/36pts
San Antonio finishes second in three-team mini-group

1. Orange County – 3-1-0, 9pts
2. San Antonio – 2-2-0, 6pts
3. Colorado Springs – 1-3-0, 3pts

3e. San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC wins/draws at FC Tulsa, ends on 38/40pts
AND Orange County SC draws vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37pts
AND Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
San Antonio finishes first in three-team mini-group

1. San Antonio – 2-2-0, 6pts, +1GD
2. Lexington – 1-1-2, 5pts, even GD
3. Orange County – 1-1-2, 5pts, -1GD

3f. San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC wins/draws at FC Tulsa, ends on 38/40pts
AND Lexington SC wins at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 39pts
AND Orange County SC draws vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37pts
San Antonio holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Orange County (1-1-0, +1GD)

3g. San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC wins/draws at FC Tulsa, ends on 40/38pts
AND Orange County SC wins vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 39pts
AND Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
San Antonio holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Lexington (10 total wins vs. 9 total wins)
8. Orange County SC
Record: 9-11-9, 36pts

Playoffs Odds: 73%

Projected Finish: 8th (37.1 points)
Max Points Available: 39pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. IND (10/25)
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Outlook: Orange County remained in the top eight thanks to its draw against Louisville City on Saturday night and now has multiple factors in its favor as it tries to clinch a playoff berth at home to Indy Eleven. A victory would assure OCSC of a place in the playoffs – even in the situation of a three-way tie should Phoenix Rising lose to Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and Lexington SC win at Oakland Roots, OCSC would finish second in a potential three-team mini-group – and the club’s two-game sweep of Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC would also be a strong chip in its favor should it draw and end up in a mini-group scenario.

Orange County SC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1a. Orange County SC wins vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 39pts AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC draws/loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 38/37pts OR San Antonio FC draws/loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 38/37pts OR Lexington SC draws/loses at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37/36pts

1b. Orange County SC wins vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 39pts AND Phoenix Rising FC loses at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, ends on 39pts AND Lexington SC wins at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 39pts - Orange County finishes second in three-team mini-group

1. Lexington – 2-0-2, 8pts
2. Orange County – 1-1-2, 5pts
3. Phoenix – 1-3-0, 3pts

2a. Orange County SC draws vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
AND San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
Orange County finishes first in four-team mini-group

1. Orange County – 3-1-2, 11pts
2. San Antonio – 3-3-0, 9pts
3. Lexington – 2-2-2, 8pts
4. Colorado Springs – 2-4-0, 6pts

2b. Orange County SC draws vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
AND Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
AND San Antonio FC wins/draws vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 40/38pts
Orange County finishes first in three-team mini-group

1. Orange County – 2-0-2, 8pts
2. Lexington – 1-1-2, 5pts
3. Colorado Springs – 1-3-0, 3pts

2c. Orange County SC draws vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37pts
AND Lexington SC draws/loses at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37/36pts
AND San Antonio FC wins/draws vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 40/38pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC wins/draws at FC Tulsa, ends on 40/38pts
Orange County wins head-to-head tiebreaker over Lexington on 37pts via points-per-game vs. In-Conference opposition

3. Orange County SC loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 36pts
AND Lexington SC loses at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 36pts
Orange County wins head-to-head tiebreaker over Lexington via points-per-game vs. In-Conference opposition
9. Lexington SC
Record: 9-11-9, 36pts

Playoffs Odds: 65%

Projected Finish: 9th (37.1 points)
Max Points Available: 39pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ OAK (10/25)
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Outlook: The combination of Lexington’s draw with victories for Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC and a draw for Orange County SC on Saturday night left the Championship newcomers as the odd team out going to the final game of the regular season. Victory at Oakland Roots SC could be enough to get Lexington in should one of their other rivals slip up – or in the case of a three-way mini-group with Orange County SC and Phoenix Rising FC – and those head-to-head numbers can work for Lexington with a draw if it ends up in a three-way tiebreaker. A defeat would ensure the end of the season, with Orange County holding the tiebreaker between the two clubs.

Lexington SC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1a. Lexington SC wins at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 39pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC draws/loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 38/37pts
OR San Antonio FC draws/loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 38/37pts
OR Orange County SC draws/loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37/36pts

1b. Lexington SC wins at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 39pts
AND Phoenix Rising FC loses at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, ends on 39pts
AND Orange County SC wins vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 39pts
Lexington finishes first in three-team mini-group

1. Lexington – 2-0-2, 8pts
2. Orange County – 1-1-2, 5pts
3. Phoenix – 1-3-0, 3pts

2a. Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
AND San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND Orange County SC draws vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37pts
Lexington finishes third in four-team mini-group

1. Orange County – 3-1-2, 11pts
2. San Antonio – 3-3-0, 9pts
3. Lexington – 2-2-2, 8pts
4. Colorado Springs – 2-4-0, 6pts

2b. Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
AND San Antonio FC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 37pts
AND Orange County SC draws vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC win/draw at FC Tulsa, end on 40/38pts
Lexington finishes second in three-team mini-group

1. San Antonio FC – 2-2-0, 6pts, +1GD
2. Lexington – 1-1-2, 5pts, even GD
3. Orange County – 1-1-2, 5pts, -1GD

2c. Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at FC Tulsa, ends on 37pts
AND Orange County SC draws vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 37pts
AND San Antonio FC wins/draws vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 40/38pts
Lexington finishes second in three-team mini-group

1. Orange County – 2-0-2, 8pts
2. Lexington – 1-1-2, 5pts
3. Colorado Springs – 1-3-0, 3pts

2d. Lexington SC draws at Oakland Roots SC, ends on 37pts
AND Orange County SC loses vs. Indy Eleven, ends on 36pts

Mathematically Eliminated: Las Vegas Lights FC, Monterey Bay FC, Oakland Roots SC

Eastern Conference

1. Louisville City FC
Record: 21-1-7, 70pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 1st (71.4 points)
Max Points Available: 73pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. HFD (10/25)
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Outlook: LouCity remains on the verge of history despite its draw against Orange County SC on Saturday. A win would see the side set a league record for the highest point-per-game mark in a regular season, and taking all three points against third-placed Hartford Athletic could significantly impact the four-team battle for the final two places in the top four and homefield advantage to open the playoffs.
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 18-5-5, 59pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 2nd (62.9 points)
Max Points Available: 65pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next:vs. BHM (10/25)
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Outlook: The Battery rotated their lineup – as expected with a busy workload over the final two weeks of the regular season – and fell away to Sacramento Republic FC on Wednesday night. There could be more of the same on Saturday at home to Birmingham Legion as Head Coach Ben Pirmann looks to set up the No. 2 seed for a deep playoff run.
3. Hartford Athletic
Record: 13-11-5, 44pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 3rd (45.7 points)
Max Points Available: 47pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ LOU (10/25)
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Outlook: Hartford’s road winning streak came to an end in Tampa Bay, which means if it’s to be guaranteed of a home playoff game, it will need to do something no other club has done so far this season and win away at Louisville City FC. Athletic does have the advantage that with Loudoun United and North Carolina FC playing each other, only one can jump past them, but a draw could see Hartford miss out should there be a definitive result between Loudoun and North Carolina and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC get at least a draw against Phoenix Rising, with the Hounds holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Hartford.

Hartford Athletic Clinches a Top-Four Finish IF:

1. Hartford Athletic wins at Louisville City FC, ends on 47pts

2a. Hartford Athletic draws at Louisville City FC, ends on 45pts
AND Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC draws/loses vs. Phoenix Rising FC, ends on 44/43pts
OR Loudoun United FC vs. North Carolina FC ends as a draw, both end on 43pts

2b. Hartford Athletic draws at Louisville City FC, ends on 45pts
AND Loudoun United FC wins vs. North Carolina FC, ends on 45pts
AND Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC wins vs. Phoenix Rising FC, ends on 46pts
Hartford holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Loudoun (1-1-0, +1GD)

3a. Hartford Athletic loses at Louisville City FC, ends on 44pts
AND Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC loses vs. Phoenix Rising FC, ends on 43pts
OR Loudoun United FC vs. North Carolina FC ends as a draw, both end on 43pts
4. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 12-10-7, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 4th (44.2 points)
Max Points Available: 46pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. PHX (10/25)
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Outlook: Pittsburgh jumped into the box seat for a top-four finish with its victory away at Monterey Bay FC and will now be guaranteed a home game to start the playoffs with a win at home to Phoenix Rising. The Hounds also have the advantage of holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Hartford Athletic, but lost their regular season series against both Loudoun United and North Carolina FC, which means a loss to Rising would drop the Hounds out of fourth place regardless of the result between Loudoun and North Carolina.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC Clinches a Top-Four Finish IF:

1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC wins vs. Phoenix Rising FC, ends on 46pts

2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC draws vs. Phoenix Rising FC, ends on 44pts
AND Hartford Athletic loses at Louisville City FC, ends on 44pts
Pittsburgh holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Hartford (2-0-0)
OR Loudoun United FC vs. North Carolina FC ends as a draw, both end on 43pts
5. Loudoun United FC
Record: 12-11-6, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 5th (43.1 points)
Max Points Available: 45pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. NC (10/25)
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Outlook: Loudoun United’s defeat at Indy Eleven left it needing help to claim a home game to start its first postseason. A win against North Carolina FC would put United in should either Hartford Athletic lose at Louisville City or Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC drop points at home to Phoenix Rising, while a draw could also work for United should the Hounds lose at home to Phoenix, setting up a three-team tie on 43 for fourth place.

Loudoun United FC Clinches a Top-Four Finish IF:

1. Loudoun United FC wins vs. North Carolina FC, ends on 45pts
AND Hartford Athletic loses at Louisville City FC, ends on 44pts
OR Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC draws/loses vs. Phoenix Rising FC, ends on 44/43pts

2. Loudoun United FC draws vs. North Carolina FC, ends on 43pts
AND Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC loses vs. Phoenix Rising FC, ends on 43pts
Loudoun finishes first in three-team mini-group

1. Loudoun – 2-0-2, 8pts
2. North Carolina – 1-1-2, 5pts
3. Pittsburgh – 0-2-2, 2pts
6. North Carolina FC
Record: 12-11-6, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 6th (43.0 points)
Max Points Available: 45pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ LDN (10/25)
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Outlook: North Carolina’s draw against Rhode Island FC left it in a scenario where it has to win on the road against Loudoun United to have a chance to host in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, with a draw leaving Loudoun ahead in a potential three-team mini-group including current fourth-placed side Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC should all three teams end on 43 points.

North Carolina FC Clinches a Top-Four Finish IF:

1. North Carolina FC wins at Loudoun United FC, ends on 45pts
AND Hartford Athletic draws/loses at Louisville City FC, ends on 45/44pts
North Carolina holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Hartford on 45pts on points-per-game vs. In-Conference opposition
OR Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC draws/loses vs. Phoenix Rising FC, ends on 44/43pts
7. Rhode Island FC
Record: 10-11-8, 38pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 7th (38.8 points)
Max Points Available: 41pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ NM (10/24)
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Outlook: Rhode Island has secured its postseason berth and is currently set for the No. 7 seed. Should it only draw against New Mexico United on Friday night, however, RIFC would leave the door open for Detroit City to jump above it with a win thanks to Le Rouge holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over the defending Eastern Conference title-holders, which would set up a playoff rematch at Louisville City to open the postseason.
8. Detroit City FC
Record: 9-11-9, 36pts

Playoffs Odds: 56%

Projected Finish: 8th (36.9 points)
Max Points Available: 39pts

Magic Number: 3

Up Next: @ TBR (10/25)
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Outlook: Le Rouge couldn’t close the deal against the Charleston Battery on Saturday night, but their draw ensured a win-and-you’re-in scenario as they close the regular season against the Tampa Bay Rowdies. A draw or a defeat to Tampa Bay would put the side in potential jeopardy – should the Rowdies win by two goals, they would equal Le Rouge’s head-to-head advantage and hold the third tiebreaker of points-per-game vs. In-Conference opposition, and a three-goal win would give the edge to Tampa Bay on goal differential – while there would also be the threat of Indy Eleven winning later in the night to overtake Detroit for the No. 8 seed.

Detroit City FC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1. Detroit City FC wins vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies, ends on 39pts

2. Detroit City FC draws vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies, ends on 37pts
AND Indy Eleven draws/loses at Orange County SC, ends on 36/35pts

3. Detroit City FC loses vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies by one goal, ends on 36pts
AND Indy Eleven loses vs. Orange County SC, ends on 35pts
9. Indy Eleven
Record: 10-14-5, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 25%

Projected Finish: 9th (36.2 points)
Max Points Available: 38pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ OC (10/25)
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Outlook: The math is simple for Indy – it must win to get into the playoffs. Due to its head-to-head records against both the Tampa Bay Rowdies (0-2-0) and Detroit City (0-1-1), should Indy draw and end up in a three-way tiebreaker against the two other teams alive for the postseason, it would come third in a three-horse race and miss the playoffs.

Indy Eleven Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1. Indy Eleven wins at Orange County SC, ends on 38pts
AND Detroit City FC draws/loses at Tampa Bay Rowdies, ends on 37/36pts
10. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 9-14-6, 33pts

Playoffs Odds: 19%

Projected Finish: 10th (34.1 points)
Max Points Available: 36pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. DET (10/25)
+
Outlook: The Tampa Bay Rowdies got what they needed to stay alive in the playoff race with their victory against Hartford Athletic. Now it’s got to win, and potentially by two goals, against Detroit City FC to have a chance to grab the final playoff berth in the East. The wrinkle here is that while Detroit holds a two-goal advantage in goal differential between the sides, the Rowdies’ sweep of Indy in their regular season series would turn into a big plus for Tampa Bay should the Boys in Blue end in a draw at Orange County SC later in the night. A three-way tiebreaker on 36 points would send Tampa Bay through regardless of the size of its victory against Detroit.

Tampa Bay Rowdies Clinch a Playoff Berth IF:

1a. Tampa Bay Rowdies win vs. Detroit City FC, end on 36pts
AND Indy Eleven draws at Orange County SC, ends on 36pts
Tampa Bay finishes first in three-team mini-group

1. Tampa Bay 3-1-0, 9pts
2. Detroit – 2-1-1, 7pts
3. Indy – 0-3-1, 1pt

1b. Tampa Bay Rowdies win by two goals vs. Detroit City FC, end on 36pts
AND Indy Eleven loses at Orange County SC, ends on 35pts
Tampa Bay (1.37ppg) holds tiebreaker over Detroit (1.14ppg) on points-per-game vs. In-Conference Opposition

1c. Tampa Bay Rowdies win by three or more goals vs. Detroit City FC, end on 36pts
AND Indy Eleven loses at Orange County SC, ends on 35pts
Tampa Bay holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Detroit (1-1-0, min. +1GD)

Mathematically Eliminated: Birmingham Legion FC, Miami FC

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