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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – Week 33

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 10/17/25, 3:00PM EDT

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Key games across both conferences could see the postseason field set with a week to go, or plenty up for grabs on the final weekend of the season


Loudoun United and Indy Eleven square off on Saturday night in one of the weekend's pivotal games ahead of the 2025 USL Championship Playoffs. | Photo courtesy Patrick Garber / Loudoun United FC

Welcome to the latest edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs presented by Terminix, where we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2025 USL Championship Playoffs.

It would take the correct run of results, but the postseason field could be decided this week after Orange County SC’s victory at home to San Antonio FC on Wednesday night. That result also saw Sacramento Republic FC and New Mexico United clinch top-four positions in the West, and Monterey Bay FC and Oakland Roots SC be mathematically eliminated from contention.

Once again, we’re grateful to our friend John Morrissey at USL Tactics for providing the data for playoff projections. Now, here are four games to watch this weekend and an overview of where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Lexington SC vs. Sacramento Republic FC
Friday, 6 p.m. ET | CBS Sports Golazo Network | Lexington SC Stadium

As it stands, Lexington SC and Sacramento Republic FC would meet in the opening weekend of the postseason at Heart Health Park. For Lexington, however, getting back in the win column – potentially to clinch a playoff place pending Orange County and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC’s results this week – is crucial, while Sacramento Republic FC could clinch a top-two finish with a victory on the road.

Indy Eleven vs. Loudoun United FC
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET | ESPN+ | Michael A. Carroll Stadium

There’s plenty at stake for both Indy Eleven and Loudoun United, even with the visitors having sealed their first trip to the postseason last Saturday night. Loudoun could clinch a top-four finish if it takes victory and results elsewhere go in its favor, but for Indy a win is essential to try and lift its chances of reaching the postseason going to the final weekend of the season.

North Carolina FC vs. Rhode Island FC
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET | ESPN+ | First Horizon Stadium

Rhode Island has gone from outside the playoff line a couple of weeks ago to in line to clinch a playoff place when it visits North Carolina FC on Saturday. A victory would assure RIFC of a second consecutive postseason berth and it could still get in with a draw or a defeat pending results elsewhere. North Carolina, meanwhile, is in the middle of a battle for homefield advantage as it tries to rebound from a setback last week at home to Phoenix.

Phoenix Rising FC vs. San Antonio FC
Saturday, 10 p.m. ET | ESPN+ | Phoenix Rising Stadium

San Antonio FC’s recent downturn in form – which has seen the side go scoreless in four consecutive games for the first time in the USL Championship regular season and lose three in a row for the first time this season – has made its visit to Phoenix Rising an intriguing one. Rising sits only two points behind San Antonio in fifth place as the sides meet for the second time this season, and while a San Antonio win would clinch its postseason berth, a Phoenix victory would give it a chance to clinch and potentially put it in contention for a top-four finish on the final weekend of the season.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. FC Tulsa
Record: 15-5-8, 53pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 1st (57.8 points)
Max Points Available: 59pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ ELP (10/18)
+
Outlook: FC Tulsa clinched the top seed in the Western Conference on Saturday night, holding a nine-point lead over Sacramento Republic FC and the head-to-head tiebreaker with wins in both meetings between the clubs this season. All that’s left for the Scissortails is to add to their already record-setting regular season campaign, and potentially dictate the seeding below them, with its visit to El Paso Locomotive on Saturday an important one when it comes to Locomotive’s bid for a top-four finish.
2. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 12-7-8, 44pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 2nd (50.8 points)
Max Points Available: 53pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ LEX (10/18)
+
Outlook: Sacramento is locked into a top-four finish after San Antonio FC’s late defeat on Wednesday night, and could clinch the No. 2 seed for the postseason thanks to its season sweep of New Mexico United in their regular season series. If Sacramento wins on Friday evening against Lexington SC and New Mexico falls against Oakland Roots SC on Sunday evening, Republic FC will claim second spot.

Sacramento Republic FC Clinches a Top Two Finish IF:

Sacramento Republic FC wins at Lexington SC, moves to 47pts
AND New Mexico United loses vs. Oakland Roots SC, maximum available drops to 47pts
Sacramento holds head-to-head tiebreaker over New Mexico (2-0-0)
3. New Mexico United
Record: 13-10-5, 44pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 3rd (47.9 points)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. OAK (10/19)
+
Outlook: New Mexico is also locked into a top-four position after San Antonio’s defeat on Wednesday night, but is going to need help to move into second place. It will be rooting for Sacramento Republic FC to drop points away at Lexington SC on Friday evening before it hosts Oakland Roots SC on Sunday with Roots having been mathematically eliminated with Orange County’s victory.
4. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 10-8-10, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 99%

Projected Finish: 4th (43.8 points)
Max Points Available: 46pts

Magic Number: 1

Up Next: vs. TUL (10/18)
+
Outlook: Locomotive was minutes away from clinching its playoff berth on Wednesday – a draw between Orange County and San Antonio would have sealed it – but it can now get there of its own accord. A win or draw against first-place FC Tulsa guarantees Locomotive will be postseason bound, and it could also clinch even if it falls at home to the Scissortails.

El Paso Locomotive FC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1. El Paso Locomotive FC wins vs. FC Tulsa, moves to 43pts

2. El Paso Locomotive FC draws vs. FC Tulsa, moves to 41pts

3. El Paso Locomotive FC loses vs. FC Tulsa, remains on 40pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC draws/loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum available drops to 38/37pts
OR Orange County SC draws/loses vs. Louisville City FC, maximum available drops to 39/38pts
OR Lexington SC draws/loses vs. Sacramento Republic FC, maximum available drops to 39/38pts
OR Phoenix Rising FC loses vs. San Antonio FC, maximum available drops to 39pts
5. San Antonio FC
Record: 10-11-7, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 86%

Projected Finish: 5th (39.2 points)
Max Points Available: 43pts

Magic Number: 4

Up Next: @ PHX (10/18)
+
Outlook: San Antonio missed out on what would have been a valuable point away at Orange County SC with its late concession on Wednesday night, and the club’s record scoreless streak of four consecutive games is still a concern. A win in Phoenix gets San Antonio into the playoffs, but another loss and the wrong combination of results elsewhere could really ramp up the pressure ahead of a final game against El Paso Locomotive FC.

San Antonio FC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1. San Antonio FC wins at Phoenix Rising FC, moves to 40pts
Phoenix Rising FC’s maximum available drops to 39pts

2. San Antonio FC draws at Phoenix Rising FC, moves to 38pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum available drops to 37pts
OR Orange County SC loses vs. Louisville City FC, maximum available drops to 38pts
San Antonio holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Orange County (1-1-0, +1GD)
6. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 8-8-12, 36pts

Playoffs Odds: 84%

Projected Finish: 7th (38.5 points)
Max Points Available: 42pts

Magic Number: 5

Up Next: vs. SA (10/18)
+
Outlook: Rising’s chances of moving up at least one spot was boosted by San Antonio FC’s loss on Wednesday night and now Phoenix can clinch this weekend as SAFC heads to Arizona to complete its two-game week. A win – or even a draw – and help from elsewhere could get Rising over the line, but three points and an El Paso loss at home to FC Tulsa could move Phoenix in with a chance at a top-four finish.

Phoenix Rising FC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1. Phoenix Rising FC wins vs. San Antonio FC, moves to 39pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC draws/loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum available drops to 38/37pts

2. Phoenix Rising FC draws vs. San Antonio FC, moves to 37pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum available drops to 37pts
Phoenix holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Colorado Springs (1-0-1)
7. Lexington SC
Record: 9-11-8, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 85%

Projected Finish: 6th (38.8 points)
Max Points Available: 41pts

Magic Number: 6

Up Next: vs. SAC (10/17)
+
Outlook: After Orange County’s win on Wednesday night, Lexington can get into the playoffs with a victory on Friday night should Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC fall at home to Las Vegas Lights FC on Saturday. If LSC is unable to take all three points, however, it could run the risk of being the team below the playoff line when the final day of the season arrives, with the Switchbacks holding the head-to-head tiebreaker between the teams.

Lexington SC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1. Lexington SC wins vs. Sacramento Republic FC, moves to 38pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum available drops to 37pts
8. Orange County SC
Record: 9-11-8, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 67%

Projected Finish: 8th (38.3 points)
Max Points Available: 41pts

Magic Number: 6

Up Next: vs. LOU (10/18)
+
Outlook: : Orange County SC moved above the playoff line with its dramatic win against San Antonio FC on Wednesday night, retaining control of its path to the postseason. OCSC could now clinch a playoff berth this weekend if it wins at home to Louisville City and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC fails to take victory at home to Las Vegas Lights FC, with OCSC having swept the season series against the Switchbacks. If OCSC doesn’t take all three points, however, it could be looking for help on the final day of the season with the Switchbacks having the easier assignment on paper in their penultimate contest.

Orange County SC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1. Orange County SC wins vs. Louisville City FC, moves to 38pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC draws/loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum available drops to 38/37pts
Orange County holds head-to-head over Colorado Springs (2-0-0)
9. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 9-12-7, 34pts

Playoffs Odds: 49%

Projected Finish: 9th (36.2 points)
Max Points Available: 40pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. LV (10/18)
+
Outlook: Colorado Springs is up against it going into the penultimate weekend after Orange County’s win on Wednesday night, but the defending title-holders do have the easiest of the three outings between itself, seventh-placed Orange County and eighth-placed Lexington SC. Victory at home to Las Vegas Lights FC and dropped points for either OCSC (vs. Louisville) or Lexington (vs. Sacramento) would put Colorado Springs back in control of its fate going to the final game of the season.

Mathematically Eliminated: Las Vegas Lights FC, Monterey Bay FC, Oakland Roots SC

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Louisville City FC
Record: 21-1-6, 69pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 1st (74.6 points)
Max Points Available: 75pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ OC (10/18)
+
Outlook: LouCity claimed the Players’ Shield with victory against Miami and now has only the record book to play against. If it wins on Saturday night against Orange County SC, Louisville will be guaranteed to set a new single-season record for points-per-game with a game to spare.
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 18-5-4, 58pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 2nd (64.4 points)
Max Points Available: 67pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. DET (10/18)
+
Outlook: The Battery rolled off a big win on Monday evening against Colorado Springs having already locked up the No. 2 seed. With three games to play over the final eight days of the season, now it’s time to fine tune – although there is the potential for the club’s first 20-win regular season to be had as well.
3. Hartford Athletic
Record: 13-10-5, 44pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 3rd (48.8 points)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ TBR (10/18)
+
Outlook: Having booked its first postseason berth since 2020 last Saturday night, Hartford is within reach of clinching a top-four finish and home playoff game when it visits the Tampa Bay Rowdies this weekend. A victory and dropped points for either Loudoun United or North Carolina FC would mean there will be playoff action at Trinity Health Stadium.

Hartford Athletic Clinches a Top-Four Finish IF:

1. Hartford Athletic wins at Tampa Bay Rowdies, moves to 47pts
AND North Carolina FC draws/loses vs. Rhode Island FC, maximum available drops to 45/44pts
OR Loudoun United FC draws/loses at Indy Eleven, maximum available drops to 46/45pts

2. Hartford Athletic draws at Tampa Bay Rodies, moves to 45pts
AND North Carolina FC loses vs. Rhode Island FC, maximum available drops to 44pts
OR Loudoun United FC loses at Indy Eleven, maximum available drops to 45pts
Hartford holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Loudoun (1-1-0, +1GD)
4. Loudoun United FC
Record: 12-10-6, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 4th (45.7 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ IND (10/18)
+
Outlook: Loudoun United is headed to the USL Championship Playoffs for the first time after Saturday’s win against Detroit, and could clinch a top-four finish if everything goes its way on Saturday. A victory away at Indy Eleven – which would seriously impact the overall playoff race – combined with a defeat for North Carolina FC at home to Rhode Island FC and a draw for Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC away at Monterey Bay FC would ensure United ends the season in the top four.

Loudoun United FC Clinches a Top-Four Finish IF:

1. Loudoun United FC wins at Indy Eleven, moves to 45pts
AND North Carolina FC loses vs. Rhode Island FC, maximum available drops to 44pts
AND Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC draws/loses at Monterey Bay FC, maximum available drops to 44/43pts
5. North Carolina FC
Record: 12-11-5, 41pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 6th (42.6 points)
Max Points Available: 47pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. RI (10/18)
+
Outlook: North Carolina has work to do to earn a home playoff game after last week’s loss to Phoenix Rising FC, and a big test this weekend with Rhode Island FC coming to First Horizon Stadium within range of clinching a playoff berth. A win would at least keep NCFC within range of Loudoun United, and potentially set up a showdown for a home playoff game on the final weekend of the regular season.
6. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 11-10-7, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 5th (44.5 points)
Max Points Available: 46pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ MB (10/18)
+
Outlook: Pittsburgh earned its eighth consecutive trip to the postseason on Saturday night, currently the second-longest such streak after Louisville City FC in the league. It could jump into fourth place with a win against Monterey Bay FC on Saturday and results going in their favor elsewhere, with fourth-place Loudoun United and fifth-place Indy Eleven taking on what appear on paper to be more difficult assignments.
7. Rhode Island FC
Record: 10-11-7, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 78%

Projected Finish: 7th (40.0 points)
Max Points Available: 43pts

Magic Number: 2

Up Next: @ NC (10/18)
+
Outlook: Rhode Island’s biggest win of the season combined with losses for Detroit City and Indy Eleven moved the defending Eastern Conference title-holders into position to clinch a playoff berth on Saturday when it visits North Carolina FC. A win would get RIFC into the playoffs – and could give the side a chance to host a playoff game, pending results elsewhere – while a draw or a defeat could also see the side clinch pending Indy Eleven’s result against Loudoun United.

Rhode Island FC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1. Rhode Island FC wins at North Carolina FC, moves to 40pts

2. Rhode Island FC draws at North Carolina FC, moves to 38pts
- Rhode Island holds tiebreaker over Indy Eleven on maximum of 38pts via Points-Per-Game vs. in-Conference Opponents

3. Rhode Island FC loses at North Carolina FC, remains on 37pts
AND Indy Eleven draws/loses vs. Loudoun United FC, maximum available drops to 36/35pts
8. Detroit City FC
Record: 9-11-8, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 61%

Projected Finish: 8th (36.9 points)
Max Points Available: 41pts

Magic Number: 4

Up Next: @ CHS (10/18)
+
Outlook: Le Rouge’s defeat on Saturday night was mitigated by subsequent defeats for Indy Eleven and the Tampa Bay Rowdies, leaving the side in control of its playoff destiny. A win away to the Charleston Battery would clinch DCFC a place in the playoffs thanks to its head-to-head tiebreaker over Indy Eleven, and it could still get there with a draw or even a defeat pending results elsewhere.

Detroit City FC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1. Detroit City FC wins vs. Charleston Battery, moves to 38pts
Detroit City holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Indy Eleven on maximum available of 38pts (1-0-1)

2. Detroit City FC draws at Charleston Battery, moves to 36pts
AND Tampa Bay Rowdies draw/lose vs. Hartford Athletic, maximum available drops to 34/33pts
AND Indy Eleven draws/loses vs. Loudoun United FC, maximum available drops to 36/35pts
Detroit City holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Indy Eleven (1-0-1)

3. Detroit City FC loses at Charleston Battery, remains on 35pts
AND Tampa Bay Rowdies draw/lose vs. Hartford Athletic, maximum available drops to 34/33pts
AND Indy Eleven loses vs. Loudoun United FC, maximum available drops to 35pts
Detroit City holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Indy Eleven (1-0-1)
9. Indy Eleven
Record: 9-14-5, 32pts

Playoffs Odds: 43%

Projected Finish: 9th (35.5 points)
Max Points Available: 38pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. LDN (10/18)
+
Outlook: Indy’s defeat in Pittsburgh has put it up against it with two games to play. Due to Detroit City holding the tiebreaker between the two clubs with a 1-0-1 record this season, the Boys in Blue have to overtake Le Rouge in its final two games, meaning a win is both essential for Indy at home to Loudoun United, but also might not be enough to keep it alive should Detroit win away at the Charleston Battery as well.
10. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 8-14-6, 30pts

Playoffs Odds: 18%

Projected Finish: 10th (32.0 points)
Max Points Available: 36pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. HFD (10/18)
+
Outlook: It’s not over until its over, but the Rowdies now need a specific sequence of results to give it a chance to be part of the postseason after Saturday’s loss at Rhode Island. The ideal scenario for Tampa Bay would be to win at home to Hartford Athletic and have both Detroit City FC and Indy Eleven lose their respective games against the Charleston Battery and Loudoun United. That would jump the Rowdies past Indy and set up a showdown at home to Detroit on the final day of the season with a two-point margin between the teams.

Mathematically Eliminated: Birmingham Legion FC, Miami FC

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Tag(s): News  Features  San Antonio FC  CO Spring Switchbacks  Orange County SC  Phoenix Rising FC  Sacramento Republic FC  FC Tulsa  Charleston Battery  Louisville City FC  Pittsburgh Riverhounds  Tampa Bay Rowdies  North Carolina FC  Indy Eleven  El Paso Locomotive FC  New Mexico United  Loudoun United FC  Hartford Athletic  Miami FC  Oakland Roots SC  Race to the Playoffs  Detroit City FC  Monterey Bay FC  Rhode Island FC  Lexington SC 

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