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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – Week 32

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 10/08/25, 3:00PM EDT

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Up to five places in the postseason could be booked by the end of the weekend across the Eastern and Western Conferences


Rhode Island FC hosts the Tampa Bay Rowdies on Saturday night in a crucial game for both in the Eastern Conference playoff race. | Photo courtesy Morgan Tencza / Tampa Bay Rowdies

Welcome to the latest edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs presented by Terminix, where we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2025 USL Championship Playoffs.

Six places in the USL Championship Playoffs have been secured going into this weekend’s action, which could see another five places claimed across the Eastern and Western Conference after a slate that features some crucial six-pointers in both conferences.

Once again, we’re grateful to our friend John Morrissey at USL Tactics for providing the data for playoff projections. Now, here are four games to watch this weekend and an overview of where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Lexington SC vs. El Paso Locomotive FC
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET | ESPN+ | Lexington SC Stadium

Both Lexington SC and El Paso Locomotive FC are in good shape to reach the postseason per the projections, but this game is an important one for both as they vie for position – and in the case of Locomotive, a top-four finish – after differing recent results. Locomotive is undefeated in its last three games and is level on points with San Antonio FC for fourth place entering Saturday night, meaning a win could push the side ahead of its Copa Tejas rival as it travels to face first-place FC Tulsa. Lexington, meanwhile, has lost two in a row, and while it has a four-point cushion to ninth-place Orange County SC – which has played one game fewer – LSC will want to end that slide and solidify its position in the top half of the standings with a result here.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC vs. Indy Eleven
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET | ESPN+ | Highmark Stadium

Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and Indy Eleven square off in a crucial six-pointer that could see the Hounds either book their place in the postseason with a win, or potentially get dragged into a battle for a top-eight finish with a loss as Indy tries to boost its postseason chances after last week’s setback. The Hounds are coming off a deflating 3-1 loss on the road to Miami FC, but have typically responded well after defeats of late, bouncing back to win on four occasions after their prior five defeats. Indy took a 1-0 win when these sides met earlier this season, and in its current position below the playoff line could use a similar result and help elsewhere to regain control of its path to the postseason.

Rhode Island FC vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET | ESPN+ | Centreville Bank Stadium

Coming in on a five-game undefeated streak, this is the defining game of the Tampa Bay Rowdies’ season with anything other than a victory on the road against Rhode Island FC likely putting the playoffs out of reach for this season. The Rowdies are currently four points behind eighth-place RIFC in the East, thus would cut the potential deficit to one with a win while looking for help elsewhere. Rhode Island is on its own positive run, however, having taken 10 points from its past four games to jump ahead of Indy Eleven and regain control of its path to the postseason. A win for RIFC would not only move it closer to a postseason berth but could eliminate the Rowdies if other results go against Tampa Bay.   

New Mexico United vs. Orange County SC
Saturday, 9 p.m. ET | ESPN+ | Isotopes Park

New Mexico United earned its place in the postseason last time out with its late win against Phoenix Rising FC and is now close to earning a top-four finish as it plays host to an Orange County SC side in need of a return to the win column to boost its playoff chances. United could clinch at least one home playoff game with a victory and help elsewhere – a draw between Lexington SC and El Paso Locomotive FC would be an ideal result. Orange County, meanwhile, will try to break an eight-game winless streak that has seen its margin for error narrow dramatically with four games to play. OCSC still controls its path to the postseason going into the weekend, but more dropped points could see that change pending results elsewhere.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. FC Tulsa
Record: 14-5-8, 50pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 1st (56.6 points)
Max Points Available: 59pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. SA (10/11)
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Outlook: FC Tulsa will host a playoff game for the first time in its history after its victory against Lexington SC last Saturday night, and is within range of clinching a top-two finish when it faces San Antonio FC at ONEOK Field on Saturday night. A victory would ensure the Scissortails finish in the top two, and a draw could also get them there.

FC Tulsa Clinches a Top Two Position IF:

1. FC Tulsa wins vs. San Antonio FC, moves to 53 points

2. FC Tulsa draws vs. San Antonio FC, moves to 51pts
AND New Mexico United draws/loses vs. Orange County SC, maximum available drops to 50/49pts

3. FC Tulsa loses vs. San Antonio FC, remains on 50pts
AND New Mexico United draws/loses vs. Orange County SC, maximum available drops to 50/49pts
Tulsa holds head-to-head tiebreaker over New Mexico (2-0-0)
2. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 12-6-8, 44pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 2nd (52.8 points)
Max Points Available: 56pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ HFD (10/11)
+
Outlook: Republic FC will try to rebound from its loss in the 2025 USL Jägermeister Cup Final with an immediate rematch on the road against Hartford Athletic, but having clinched a playoff place last week the side could earn a top-four finish with a result at Trinity Health Stadium. A win would move Sacramento clear of everyone in fifth place and below, while a draw would require El Paso Locomotive FC to drop points away at Lexington SC.

Sacramento Republic FC Clinches a Top Four Finish IF:

1. Sacramento Republic FC wins at Hartford Athletic, moves to 47pts

2. Sacramento Republic FC draws at Hartford Athletic, moves to 45pts
AND El Paso Locomotive FC draws/loses at Lexington SC, maximum available drops to 44/43pts
3. New Mexico United
Record: 13-10-4, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 3rd (48.6 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. OC (10/11)
+
Outlook: New Mexico ensured its return to the postseason with its late victory against Phoenix Rising FC and the combination of other results around the West over the weekend means United could lock up at least one home playoff game this weekend. A win at home to Orange County SC combined with El Paso dropping points at Lexington SC would be enough, but a draw wouldn’t quite get there with United not holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over either Lexington or El Paso.

New Mexico United Clinches a Top Four Finish IF:

1. New Mexico United wins vs. Orange County SC, moves to 46 points
AND El Paso Locomotive FC draws/loses at Lexington SC, maximum available drops to 44/43pts
4. San Antonio FC
Record: 10-9-7, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 78%

Projected Finish: 5th (41.2 points)
Max Points Available: 49pts

Magic Number: 5

Up Next: @ TUL (10/11)
+
Outlook: San Antonio’s defeat against Colorado Springs was a setback, but the side still remains within range of clinching a postseason berth this weekend with a victory and help elsewhere. Heading to Western Conference leader FC Tulsa is going to be a test, but as things stand this would also be a potential preview of a Western Conference Semifinal matchup with SAFC sitting fourth currently.

San Antonio FC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1. San Antonio FC wins at FC Tulsa, moves to 40pts
AND Phoenix Rising FC loses at North Carolina FC, maximum available drops to 39pts
5. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 9-8-10, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 83%

Projected Finish: 4th (42.4 points)
Max Points Available: 46pts

Magic Number: 6

Up Next: @ LEX (10/11)
+
Outlook: El Paso edged a step closer to the postseason with its draw against Orange County SC last Saturday night and is now within range of a return to the postseason after last year’s absence. A victory on the road against Lexington SC combined with a defeat for Phoenix Rising FC at North Carolina FC on Friday night would see Head Coach Wilmer Cabrera’s side into the field.

El Paso Locomotive FC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1. El Paso Locomotive wins at Lexington SC, moves to 40pts
AND Phoenix Rising FC loses at North Carolina FC, maximum available drops to 39pts
6. Lexington SC
Record: 9-10-8, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 75%

Projected Finish: 6th (40.5 points)
Max Points Available: 44pts

Magic Number: 8

Up Next: vs. ELP (10/11)
+
Outlook: Consecutive defeats have dropped Lexington’s projected finish but that could very quickly change if the side turns things around and takes victory at home to El Paso Locomotive FC on Saturday night in one of the week’s key games. A win could move Lexington into fourth place by the end of the night, and within range of clinching a playoff place in Week 33.
7. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 9-11-7, 34pts

Playoffs Odds: 62%

Projected Finish: 7th (37.3 points)
Max Points Available: 43pts

Magic Number: 9

Up Next: @ CHS (10/11)
+
Outlook: The Switchbacks delivered the win they needed against San Antonio FC last Saturday night and are now back in control of their path to the postseason. This weekend’s game at Charleston is a difficult one, so some help elsewhere from North Carolina against Phoenix Rising FC and New Mexico United against Orange County SC would probably be welcome to keep Colorado Springs on track for a fifth consecutive postseason berth.
8. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 7-8-12, 33pts

Playoffs Odds: 58%

Projected Finish: 9th (36.3 points)
Max Points Available: 42pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ NC (10/10)
+
Outlook: Rising’s defeat combined with Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC’s victory last weekend left Phoenix now projected to be the odd team out in the three-team battle for the final two playoff positions. Phoenix can put pressure on both Colorado Springs and Orange County with a victory on Friday night away at North Carolina FC, but more dropped points could leave Rising looking at an even steeper hill to climb in its final two games of the campaign.
9. Orange County SC
Record: 8-11-7, 31pts

Playoffs Odds: 61%

Projected Finish: 8th (37.2 points)
Max Points Available: 43pts

Magic Number: 12

Up Next: @ NM (10/11)
+
Outlook: Orange County’s draw against El Paso Locomotive FC ensured it retained control of its path to the playoffs, but that’s largely thanks Phoenix continuing its own long winless streak alongside that of OCSC. Head Coach Danny Stone’s side heads to face New Mexico United on Saturday in need of all three points to stay on course. If it drops more points, it will need help elsewhere to remain in position to reach the playoffs with a key game in hand coming next week against San Antonio.
10. Monterey Bay FC
Record: 7-14-7, 28pts

Playoffs Odds: 30%

Projected Finish: 11th (30.4 points)
Max Points Available: 34pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. PIT (10/18)
+
Outlook: After a weekend in which almost everything went right for Monterey Bay in Week 30, the side’s defeat and positive results for the teams above it in the West left MBFC in trouble again. The side is on a bye this weekend and will be rooting for North Carolina FC (vs. Phoenix), the Charleston Battery (vs. Colorado Springs) and New Mexico United (vs. Orange County SC) to keep the three clubs above it within range. If the Switchbacks draw and Rising takes victory, it’s over for MBFC.
11. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 7-14-6, 27pts

Playoffs Odds: 28%

Projected Finish: 10th (31.2 points)
Max Points Available: 36pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ LV (10/11)
+
Outlook: Oakland’s defeat at home to Hartford Athletic was likely the end of the road for Roots’ playoff aspirations this season. The side now needs to make up a six-point margin to Phoenix Rising FC in its last three games, and with its current form we’re just not seeing it.
12. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 6-14-7, 25pts

Playoffs Odds: 10%

Projected Finish: 12th (27.5 points)
Max Points Available: 34pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. OAK (10/5)
+
Outlook: Las Vegas isn’t officially eliminated yet, but it could be by the time it kicks off on Saturday night. A win or draw for Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC in Charleston and a win or draw for Phoenix Rising FC against North Carolina would eliminate the Lights, as would any dropped points at home to Oakland.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Louisville City FC
Record: 20-1-6, 66pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 1st (73.7 points)
Max Points Available: 75pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. MIA (10/11)
+
Outlook: Louisville’s six-game winning streak – its longest since the 2020 season – has it on the verge of clinching the Players’ Shield on Saturday night when it hosts Miami FC. A win or draw would clinch the silverware for a second consecutive season with LouCity holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over second-place Charleston through their sweep of the season series.

Louisville City FC Clinches the Players Shield IF:

1. Louisville City FC wins vs. Miami FC, moves to 69pts

2. Louisville City FC draws vs. Miami FC, moves to 67pts
Louisville holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Charleston Battery (2-0-0)

3. Louisville City FC loses vs. Miami FC, remains on 66pts
AND Charleston Battery draws/loses vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, maximum available drops to 65/64pts
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 17-5-4, 55pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 2nd (63.5 points)
Max Points Available: 67pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. COS (10/11)
+
Outlook: The Battery clinched a top-two finish without having to lift a finger during the bye week with North Carolina’s draw against Birmingham Legion FC leaving them clear of the rest of the Eastern Conference. Now they have to take victory at home and hope Miami FC upsets Louisville City FC on the road to remain in with a chance at the Players’ Shield.
3. Hartford Athletic
Record: 12-10-5, 41pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 3rd (47.7 points)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: 1

Up Next: vs. SAC (10/11)
+
Outlook: Hartford Athletic moved within a point of returning to the postseason with its win on Tuesday night against Oakland Roots SC, with Indy Eleven holding the head-to-head tiebreaker between the two clubs the only reason Athletic isn’t already in. That could come on Saturday with either a win or draw at home to Sacramento Republic FC, any dropped points from Indy, or dropped points for Rhode Island FC at home to the Tampa Bay Rowdies.

Hartford Athletic Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1. Hartford Athletic wins vs. Sacramento Republic FC, moves to 44pts

2. Hartford Athletic draws vs. Sacramento Republic FC, moves to 42pts

3. Hartford Athletic loses vs. Sacramento Republic C, remains on 41pts
AND Indy Eleven draws/loses at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, maximum available drops to 40/39pts
OR Rhode Island FC draws/loses vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies, maximum available drops to 41/40pts
Hartford Athletic holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Rhode Island FC (1-0-1)
4. North Carolina FC
Record: 12-10-5, 41pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 5th (43.5 points)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. PHX (10/10)
+
Outlook: North Carolina backed into a playoff berth despite its loss to Detroit City last Saturday afternoon. Now it can take aim at a top-four finish with the opportunity to put pressure on its rivals – and help out the other teams around the Western Conference playoff line – with a victory at home on this weekend’s lone Friday night contest.
5. Loudoun United FC
Record: 11-10-6, 39pts

Playoffs Odds: 87%

Projected Finish: 4th (44.1 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: 3

Up Next: @ DET (10/11)
+
Outlook: Loudoun United dropped to fifth after Hartford Athletic’s midweek victory in Oakland, but it can lock up a first trip to the postseason under a handful of scenarios this weekend. The simplest is to win at Detroit City FC on Saturday evening, which gets United in without needing help, but it could also seal a place with a draw if other results go its way.

Loudoun United Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1. Loudoun United FC wins at Detroit City FC, moves to 42 points

2. Loudoun United FC draws at Detroit City FC, moves to 40 points
AND Rhode Island FC loses vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies, maximum available drops to 40pts
Loudoun United holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Rhode Island (1-0-1)
OR Indy Eleven draws/loses at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, maximum available drops to 39/38pts
6. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 10-10-7, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 84%

Projected Finish: 6th (43.3 points)
Max Points Available: 46pts

Magic Number: 5

Up Next: vs. IND (10/11)
+
Outlook: The Hounds’ defeat in Miami left the postseason out of reach for another week, but Pittsburgh edged closer due to results elsewhere. Now the side can book its place in the playoffs with victory at home against Indy Eleven, which would move the Hounds clear of both the Boys in Blue and Tampa Bay Rowdies and secure in the top eight.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC wins vs. Indy Eleven, moves to 40 points
Indy Eleven’s maximum available drops to 38pts
7. Detroit City FC
Record: 9-10-8, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 63%

Projected Finish: 8th (37.8 points)
Max Points Available: 44pts

Magic Number: 7

Up Next: vs. LDN (10/11)
+
Outlook: Detroit City took off a lot of pressure with its win at home to North Carolina FC, and could clinch a playoff place this weekend if everything else falls correctly elsewhere due to holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indy Eleven. A victory at home to Loudoun United, an Indy loss at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and the Tampa Bay Rowdies dropping points away at Rhode Island FC would be enough to get Le Rouge into the playoffs.

Detroit City FC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1. Detroit City FC wins vs. Loudoun United FC, moves to 38pts
AND Tampa Bay Rowdies lose/draw at Rhode Island FC, maximum available drops to 37/36pts
AND Indy Eleven loses at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, maximum available drops to 38pts
Detroit City holds head-to-head over Indy Eleven (1-0-1)
8. Rhode Island FC
Record: 9-11-7, 34pts

Playoffs Odds: 63%

Projected Finish: 7th (37.9 points)
Max Points Available: 43pts

Magic Number: 8

Up Next: vs. TBR (10/11)
+
Outlook: However Rhode Island’s win at home to Las Vegas Lights FC came, it put the side in position to return to the postseason with three games to play. Saturday’s six-pointer against the Tampa Bay Rowdies is another critical contest, but a win would move the side within range of clinching a playoff berth in Week 33, and dropped points for Indy Eleven away to Pittsburgh would narrow that margin even further.
9. Indy Eleven
Record: 9-13-5, 32pts

Playoffs Odds: 60%

Projected Finish: 9th (37.8 points)
Max Points Available: 41pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ PIT (10/11)
+
Outlook: It shows how quickly things can change in the playoff race that Indy has gone from out to in to out again in the projections after last weekend’s results. The Boys in Blue will head to Pittsburgh looking for all three points and hoping the Tampa Bay Rowdies can earn a result against Rhode Island FC and Loudoun United does the same at Detroit City FC to give them a chance to move back above the playoff line and regain control of their path.
10. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 8-13-6, 30pts

Playoffs Odds: 42%

Projected Finish: 10th (33.1 points)
Max Points Available: 39pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ RI (10/11)
+
Outlook: If last week was a must-win against Monterey Bay – and it certainly was – then this Saturday’s game against Rhode Island is effectively the Rowdies’ season. Victory and help elsewhere would move the Rowdies within a point of the playoff positions. Defeat and the wrong results elsewhere would result in Tampa Bay’s mathematical elimination from contention with two games to play.

Mathematically Eliminated: Birmingham Legion FC, Miami FC

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Tag(s): News  Features  San Antonio FC  CO Spring Switchbacks  Orange County SC  Phoenix Rising FC  Sacramento Republic FC  FC Tulsa  Charleston Battery  Louisville City FC  Pittsburgh Riverhounds  Tampa Bay Rowdies  Las Vegas Lights FC  North Carolina FC  Indy Eleven  El Paso Locomotive FC  New Mexico United  Loudoun United FC  Hartford Athletic  Oakland Roots SC  Race to the Playoffs  Detroit City FC  Monterey Bay FC  Rhode Island FC  Lexington SC 

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