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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – Week 31

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 10/02/25, 11:50AM EDT

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Up to six places in the postseason could be booked by the end of the weekend across the Eastern and Western Conferences

Welcome to the latest edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs presented by Terminix, where we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2025 USL Championship Playoffs.

This week sees Sacramento Republic FC get its second chance at clinching a postseason berth on Wednesday night before its date with Hartford Athletic in the USL Jägermeister Cup Final, while five more clubs could book their places in the postseason this weekend across the Eastern and Western Conferences.

Once again, we’re grateful to our friend John Morrissey at USL Tactics for providing the data for playoff projections. Now, here are four games to watch this weekend and an overview of where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Sacramento Republic FC vs. Orange County SC
Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. ET | CBS Sports Network | Heart Health Park

Despite its loss over the weekend, Sacramento Republic FC is in a simple win and its in situation as it plays host to Orange County SC. Beyond that, though, there are key implications for both clubs as they vie for position in the West. Should Sacramento take victory, it would cut its deficit to FC Tulsa to three points with four games to go in the battle for top spot and help the teams currently above the playoff line that OCSC could overtake with two games in hand. If Orange County earns victory, it would not only deny Republic FC top spot, but move the visitors ahead of Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC into eighth place while still having an additional game in hand on the defending title-holders.

Detroit City FC vs. North Carolina FC
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET | TUDN / ESPN+ | Keyworth Stadium

Regardless of its result on Wednesday against Birmingham Legion FC, North Carolina FC will arrive at Keyworth Stadium with the chance to clinch a playoff berth. A North Carolina victory against Detroit City would reduce Le Rouge’s maximum available total to 41 points, which would also open the door for Loudoun United to claim its first trip to the postseason with a win at home to Birmingham Legion later on Saturday evening. For Detroit, getting a result is of huge importance after three consecutive defeats. Sitting only one point ahead of Rhode Island FC in ninth place – and RIFC in action on Sunday evening – Detroit could be outside the playoff places with either a loss or a draw by the end of the weekend.

Louisville City FC vs. Indy Eleven
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET | CBS Sports Golazo Network | Lynn Family Stadium

Louisville City FC is on the verge of claiming the USL Championship Players’ Shield. It can’t quite get there this weekend thanks to the USL Jägermeister Cup Final causing the postponement of the Charleston Battery’s game at Sacramento Republic FC, but the hosts will still be looking to move into position to claim the silverware as it hosts LIPAFC rival Indy Eleven, which is equally in need of all three points. Coming off a good home win against FC Tulsa, the Boys in Blue will try to square this year’s series and boost their postseason chances at the same time while ending LouCity’s regular season home undefeated record in the process.

Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC vs. San Antonio FC
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | ESPN+ | Weidner Field

If there was one opponent you didn’t want to see on the schedule for Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC this week, it’s San Antonio FC. You probably know the history by now – the Switchbacks haven’t defeated SAFC since the 2019 season, a run of 14 consecutive games across the regular season and playoffs. That this is almost a must-win for Colorado Springs after a three-game losing streak has dropped it into eighth place in the West is a big spot for the hosts. For its part, San Antonio could clinch a playoff spot with a victory should Oakland Roots fall against El Paso Locomotive FC on Wednesday afternoon. That would send Oakland to a maximum of 39 points, while SAFC would reach 40 points and drop the Switchbacks’ maximum to 40, with SAFC holding the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to a season sweep of the series.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. FC Tulsa
Record: 13-5-8, 47pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish:1st (55.9 points)
Max Points Available: 59pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next:vs. LEX (10/4)
+
Outlook: With Sacramento Republic FC’s victory on Wednesday night, the pressure remains on the Scissortails to close out top spot over their final four games of the regular season. Three of those are at home, starting with Saturday night’s clash with Lexington, where the side can earn at least a top-four finish with a win or potentially a draw or a one-goal defeat to Lexington, which would give Tulsa the head-to-head tiebreaker over LSC on goal differential after a season split of the series between the sides.

FC Tulsa Clinches a Top Four Position IF:

1. FC Tulsa wins vs. Lexington SC, moves to 50 points

2. FC Tulsa draws vs. Lexington SC, moves to 48pts
AND El Paso Locomotive FC draws/loses at Orange County SC, maximum available drops to 46/45pt

3. FC Tulsa loses vs. Lexington SC by one goal, remains on 47pts
FC Tulsa earns head-to-head tiebreaker vs. Lexington (1-1-0, +1GD)
AND El Paso Locomotive FC draws/loses at Orange County SC, maximum available drops to 46/45pts
2. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 12-6-8, 44pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 2nd (53.7 points)
Max Points Available: 56pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ HFD (10/11)
+
Outlook: Sacramento Republic FC booked its place in the USL Championship Playoffs on Wednesday night thanks to Khori Bennett’s late winner against Orange County SC, cutting the gap to FC Tulsa in first place to three points with four games to play. Sacramento will need to overtake the Scissortails on points to take top spot, however, with Tulsa owning the head-to-head tiebreaker after their sweep of the season series.
3. New Mexico United
Record: 12-10-4, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 96%

Projected Finish: 3rd (47.7 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: 4

Up Next: @ PHX (10/4)
+
Outlook: The combination of New Mexico’s victory on Sunday night and both Phoenix Rising FC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC dropping points put United within range of clinching its postseason spot, with multiple avenues to get there. The easiest is to win at Phoenix Rising FC on Saturday night, which would drop Rising’s maximum available mark to 42 points while lifting United to 43, but a draw could also be enough. After Oakland’s loss on Wednesday afternoon, a draw or loss by Colorado Springs against San Antonio would be enough to lift United into the postseason with New Mexico holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Switchbacks.

New Mexico United Clinches a Playoff Berth IF…

1. New Mexico United wins at Phoenix Rising FC, moves to 43 points
Phoenix Rising’s maximum available drops to 42pts

2. New Mexico United draws at Phoenix Rising FC, moves to 41pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC draws/loses vs. San Antonio FC, maximum available drops to 41/40pts
New Mexico holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1) on 41pts

3. New Mexico United loses at Phoenix Rising FC, remains on 40pts
AND Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses vs. San Antonio FC, maximum available drops to 40pts
New Mexico holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1) on 41pts
4. San Antonio FC
Record: 10-8-7, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 80%

Projected Finish: 6th (42.9 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: 7

Up Next: @ COS (10/4)
+
Outlook: El Paso Locomotive FC’s victory against Oakland Roots SC set up San Antonio with a simple proposition for Saturday night. Take victory on the road against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC and SAFC will return to the playoffs in Head Coach Carlos Llamosa’s first season in charge.

San Antonio FC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1. San Antonio FC wins at Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, moves to 40 points
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC maximum available drops to 40pts, San Antonio holds head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0-0)
5. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 9-8-9, 36pts

Playoffs Odds: 82%

Projected Finish: 4th (43.3 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: 8

Up Next: @ OC (10/4)
+
Outlook: El Paso got back in the win column thanks to its fast start against Oakland Roots SC on Wednesday night, solidifying its position in the playoff places and building a six-point gap to Orange County SC in ninth place. Locomotive can’t quite get over the finish line on Saturday night, but a win on the road against OCSC would put them in range next week
6. Lexington SC
Record: 9-9-8, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 81%

Projected Finish: 5th (43.3 points)
Max Points Available: 47pts

Magic Number: 9

Up Next: @ TUL (10/4)
+
Outlook: Lexington’s going to be in battle for a top-four finish after its loss to New Mexico United on Sunday night. It can’t quite clinch a playoff place this week because of that result, but it’ll be aiming to try and earn a result away at Western Conference leader FC Tulsa on Saturday to boost its chances and potentially open the door for a race to the finish line for top spot.
7. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 7-7-12, 33pts

Playoffs Odds: 60%

Projected Finish:7th (37.8 points)
Max Points Available: 45pts

Magic Number:11

Up Next: vs. NM (10/4)
+
Outlook: Rising is only one result away from equaling the longest run of consecutive draws in the USL Championship’s regular season, but it continues to edge toward the postseason as Colorado Springs and Orange County SC’s struggles continue. This Saturday’s rivalry clash with New Mexico United has big implications for both with Phoenix having the potential to stymie United’s path into the playoffs for the moment
8. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 8-11-7, 31pts

Playoffs Odds: 52%

Projected Finish: 9th (35.8 points)
Max Points Available: 43pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. SA (10/4)
+
Outlook:The Switchbacks got exactly the results they needed on Wednesday night with both Orange County SC and Oakland Roots SC suffering defeats. Now they’ve got to find a way to end San Antonio FC’s 12-game undefeated run in the regular season series between the sides to ensure it remains above the playoff line at the end of the weekend
9. Orange County SC
Record: 8-11-6, 30pts

Playoffs Odds: 59%

Projected Finish: 8th (37.4 points)
Max Points Available: 45pts

Magic Number: 14

Up Next: vs. ELP (10/4)
+
Outlook: Orange County would have moved above the playoff line on Wednesday night it had held on for a draw against Sacramento Republic FC. Instead, the club suffered a late loss at Heart Health Park, putting even more pressure on its home game against El Paso Locomotive FC on Saturday as it tries to jumpstart a stretch run.
10. Monterey Bay FC
Record: 7-13-7, 28pts

Playoffs Odds: 35%

Projected Finish: 11th (32.1 points)
Max Points Available: 37pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next:@ TBR (10/4)
+
Outlook: Almost everything that could go right for Monterey Bay did over the weekend, not least its victory against Sacramento Republic FC. MBFC heads to Tampa Bay this weekend to face a team facing the same predicament – ground to make up, and not many games left – in need of another three points.
11. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 7-13-6, 27pts

Playoffs Odds: 38%

Projected Finish: 10th (32.7 points)
Max Points Available: 39pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. HFD (10/7)
+
Outlook: Oakland’s slow start in El Paso ended up dooming it to defeat, and that’s close to a wrap on its postseason chances. Roots needs plenty to go its way this weekend before it returns to action next Tuesday night at home to Hartford Athletic.
12. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 6-13-7, 25pts

Playoffs Odds: 17%

Projected Finish: 12th (28.5 points)
Max Points Available: 37pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ RI (10/5)
+
Outlook: Facing a six-point gap to make up with four games to play, it’s not looking good for Lights right now. They need to take victory against Rhode Island FC on Sunday evening on ESPN2 to stay in the race. If they do, it would be a major boost for the other Eastern Conference teams battling at the playoff line.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Louisville City FC
Record: 19-1-6, 63pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 1st (73.7 points)
Max Points Available: 75pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. IND (10/4)
+
Outlook: Louisville can’t quite clinch the Players’ Shield this weekend with Charleston on a bye, but it won’t be lacking motivation to pick up all three points at home to LIPAFC rival Indy Eleven. If LouCity earns victory, it’ll be within range of clinching at home to Miami next weekend.
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 17-5-4, 55pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 2nd (66.0 points)
Max Points Available: 67pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. COS (10/11)
+
Outlook: The Battery didn’t quite clinch a top-two finish over the weekend – it needs one more point to be clear of North Carolina FC – but it’ll get this week off due to the rescheduling of what should be one of the most interesting games of October when it heads to face Sacramento Republic FC in the final week.
3. North Carolina FC
Record: 12-9-5, 41pts

Playoffs Odds: 90%

Projected Finish: 6th (45.1 points)
Max Points Available: 53pts

Magic Number: 3

Up Next: @ DET (10/4)
+
Outlook: North Carolina FC’s draw on Wednesday night against Birmingham Legion FC will feel like a missed opportunity after Legion’s late equalizer, but a win at Detroit City FC would book the side’s place in the postseason, while a draw or a loss could also secure a spot pending results elsewhere. NCFC wouldn’t be clear of Le Rouge – in the case of a draw, they’d finish the season having drawn both games, eliminating the head-to-head tiebreaker – but an Indy Eleven draw or loss to Louisville City on Saturday night or Rhode Island FC draw or loss against Las Vegas Lights FC on Sunday would be enough under the different circumstances.

North Carolina FC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF:

1. North Carolina FC wins at Detroit City FC, moves to 44 points
Detroit City maximum available drops to 41pts

2. North Carolina FC draws at Detroit City FC, moves to 42 points
AND Indy Eleven draws/loses at Louisville City FC, maximum available drops to 42/41pts – North Carolina holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
OR Rhode Island FC draws/loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum available drops to 41/40pts

3. North Carolina loses at Detroit City FC, remains on 41 points
AND Indy Eleven loses at Louisville City FC, maximum available drops to 41pts – North Carolina holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
OR Rhode Island FC loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum available drops to 40pts
4. Loudoun United FC
Record: 11-9-6, 39pts

Playoffs Odds: 94%

Projected Finish: 4th (46.1 points)
Max Points Available: 51pts

Magic Number: 5

Up Next: vs. BHM (10/4)
+
Outlook: United slipped a position in the standings after its draw with Tampa Bay on Sunday evening, but it can secure a first trip to the playoffs this weekend when it hosts Birmingham Legion FC. A win combined with either a defeat for Indy Eleven at Louisville City, a defeat for Detroit City against North Carolina FC, or a draw for Rhode Island FC against Las Vegas Lights FC would be enough to carry Loudoun into the postseason, while a draw and a Rhode Island loss would also get United in.

Loudoun United Clinches a Playoff Berth IF…

1. Loudoun United FC wins vs. Birmingham Legion FC, moves to 42 points
AND Indy Eleven loses at Louisville City FC, maximum available drops to 41pts
OR Detroit City FC loses vs. North Carolina FC, maximum available drops to 41pts
OR Rhode Island FC draws/loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum available drops to 41/40pts

2. Loudoun United FC draws vs. Birmingham Legion FC, moves to 40 points
AND Rhode Island FC loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum available drops to 40pts
Loudoun United holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Rhode Island (1-0-1)
5. Hartford Athletic
Record: 11-10-5, 38pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 3rd (47.4 points)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: 6

Up Next: @ OAK (10/7)
+
Outlook: With Athletic playing in the USL Jägermeister Cup Final on Saturday, it’s the only team in the current top six in the East that can’t quite clinch a playoff spot this weekend. That chance may come next Tuesday night as it completes its west coast trip with a visit to Oakland Roots SC.
6. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 10-9-7, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 93%

Projected Finish: 5th (45.7 points)
Max Points Available: 49pts

Magic Number: 7

Up Next:@ MIA (10/4)
+
Outlook: The Hounds’ Magic Number is officially seven after its win against Las Vegas Lights FC, but thanks to its season sweep of Rhode Island FC it could earn an eighth consecutive postseason trip this weekend. Victory on the road against Miami and a Rhode Island defeat at home against Las Vegas on Sunday would put Pittsburgh in on 40 points.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC Clinches a Playoff Berth IF…

1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC wins at Miami FC, moves to 40 points
AND Rhode Island FC loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum available drops to 40pts
Pittsburgh holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Rhode Island (2-0-0)
7. Detroit City FC
Record: 8-10-8, 32pts

Playoffs Odds: 55%

Projected Finish: 9th (36.0 points)
Max Points Available: 44pts

Magic Number: 12

Up Next: vs. NC (10/4)
+
Outlook: Le Rouge are under pressure with four games to go and need to halt their current three-game losing streak as they host North Carolina FC. Victory there and dropped points over the weekend for Indy Eleven and Rhode Island FC would lessen the pressure greatly, but the upcoming difficulty of the schedule has Detroit as the side to miss out as of now.
8. Indy Eleven
Record: 9-12-5, 32pts

Playoffs Odds: 67%

Projected Finish: 7th (38.9 points)
Max Points Available: 44pts

Magic Number: 12

Up Next: @ LOU (10/4)
+
Outlook: Consecutive wins for the Boys in Blue have them back above the playoff line with the projections looking better than ever. This Saturday’s trip to Louisville City is going to be a major test, though. Getting any kind of result would be big for the visitors.
9. Rhode Island FC
Record: 8-11-7, 31pts

Playoffs Odds: 57%

Projected Finish: 8th (36.4 points)
Max Points Available: 43pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. LV (10/5)
+
Outlook: Rhode Island’s point on the road against El Paso was useful but saw the side slip below the playoff line after Indy’s win. The defending Eastern Conference title-holders will know where it stands ahead of Sunday’s visit from Las Vegas, which is a must-win regardless of how Detroit and Indy fare on Saturday night.
10. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 7-13-6, 27pts

Playoffs Odds: 33%

Projected Finish: 10th (31.4 points)
Max Points Available: 39pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. MB (10/4)
+
Outlook: Once again for Tampa Bay, it was close but not the win the Rowdies needed. They’re not out of it yet, but victory at home to Monterey Bay FC is going to be essential while hoping results go their way elsewhere to close the gap to eighth place.
11. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 4-11-12, 24pts

Playoffs Odds: 6%

Projected Finish: 11th (26.5 points)
Max Points Available: 35pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ LDN (10/4)
+
Outlook: Legion battled back to earn a point on Wednesday night but still face mathematical elimination with three games to play in the regular season this weekend. A draw or defeat would put the top eight out of reach, and even with a win the side could still be eliminated pending result elsewhere.
12. Miami FC
Record: 5-15-6, 21pts

Playoffs Odds: 6%

Projected Finish: 12th (26.4 points)
Max Points Available: 33pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. PIT (10/4)
+
Outlook: Miami finds itself in the same situation as it did last week with clubs higher up the standings hoping it can take points off Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC. This time, though, the side would get mathematically eliminated with anything but a win, and might still anyway depending on how other results go.

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Tag(s): News  Features  San Antonio FC  CO Spring Switchbacks  Orange County SC  Phoenix Rising FC  Sacramento Republic FC  FC Tulsa  Charleston Battery  Louisville City FC  Pittsburgh Riverhounds  Tampa Bay Rowdies  Las Vegas Lights FC  Birmingham Legion FC  North Carolina FC  Indy Eleven  El Paso Locomotive FC  New Mexico United  Loudoun United FC  Hartford Athletic  Miami FC  Oakland Roots SC  Race to the Playoffs  Detroit City FC  Monterey Bay FC  Rhode Island FC  Lexington SC 

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