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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – Week 29

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 09/18/25, 10:00AM EDT

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FC Tulsa clinches a playoff berth with a win, while the schedule delivers some crucial games in either conference

Welcome to the latest edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs presented by Terminix, where we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2025 USL Championship Playoffs.

This weekend could see FC Tulsa claim its first trip to the USL Championship Playoffs since the 2021 season with victory on the road, and some key games in the middle of the Eastern and Western Conferences as teams look to either improve their current seed or move closer to clinching their spot November’s field.

Once again, we’re grateful to our friend John Morrissey at USL Tactics for providing the data for playoff projections. Now, here are four games to watch this weekend and an overview of where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Hartford Athletic vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET | ESPN+ | Trinity Health Stadium

Both Hartford Athletic and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC should be postseason bound, but the seed they take into the playoffs is still up for grabs. Sitting a point out of a top-four position in the East, this applies primarily to Hartford as it looks to host its first postseason game since its lone prior trip to the playoffs in 2020. The Hounds still have a five-point cushion to Indy Eleven in ninth place, but if they’re going to close the gap and keep the potential to host a playoff game at hand, picking up a sixth win in the past seven meetings between the teams is essential.

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs. North Carolina FC
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN+ | Al Lang Stadium

Wednesday’s matinée between the Tampa Bay Rowdies and Birmingham Legion FC was a must-win for both, and with the Rowdies having emerged with a 4-1 victory there’s a chance for them to make this the turning point in their playoff chase. Sitting two points behind eighth-placed Rhode Island FC going into the weekend, Tampa Bay could be in the playoff positions pending the results of RIFC (at Miami, Friday) and Indy Eleven (vs. Birmingham, Sunday) by the end of the weekend. Of the three, though, they’ve got the toughest test with North Carolina FC having gone 2-0-1 against Tampa Bay since returning to the Championship and in need of a win to ensure it maintains its top-four position.

Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC vs. Sacramento Republic FC
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | ESPN+ | Weidner Field

There’s a chance we could see this matchup in the Western Conference Quarterfinals – Sacramento Republic FC currently sits in second place, while Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC are in eighth – but both teams need a win to reach their current aspirations. For the Switchbacks the result is much more crucial. With seven games to play, they control their path to defending their 2024 crown. At the same time, the margins around the Western Conference line remain remarkably thin. We can confidently say Sacramento’s going to be in the playoffs, but after last week’s draw at home to Phoenix Rising it has a massive task to reel in FC Tulsa over its final seven games. Anything but a win here and that chase could be over before it begins.

San Antonio FC vs. Orange County SC
Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN+ | Heart Health Park

There are five positions and four point separating fourth-place San Antonio FC and ninth-place Orange County SC as they meet on Saturday night, but with OCSC holding at least one game in hand on all of the teams above the playoff line there’s a chance for the visitors to make the same sort of move San Antonio did a week ago. The concern for OCSC is its current form – the side is winless in its last four and was slightly fortunate to avoid defeat last weekend against Lexington SC – which is going to need to improve if it’s to make the most of its theoretical advantage of having eight games to play. With San Antonio looking to build on its outstanding second-half display at Loudoun United and claim its first consecutive wins in league play since July, this feels like a pivotal game for both.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. FC Tulsa
Record: 13-4-7, 46pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish:1st (62.2 points)
Max Points Available: 64pts

Magic Number: 4

Up Next: @ OAK (9/20)
+
Outlook: Thanks to its late victory in New Mexico, Tulsa’s Magic Number is officially four, but thanks to it holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Phoenix Rising FC with a 1-0-1 record, the Scissortails would be in with a win away at Oakland on Saturday night. Tulsa could also clinch a playoff spot with a draw should Rising drop points at home to Loudoun United.

FC Tulsa Clinches Playoff Berth IF…
1. FC Tulsa takes victory at Oakland Roots SC, moves to 49pts
Tulsa holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Phoenix Rising FC (1-0-1) on maximum of 49pts
2. FC Tulsa draws at Oakland Roots SC, moves to 47pts
AND Phoenix Rising FC draws/loses vs. Loudoun United FC, maximum available drops to 47/46pts; Tulsa holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Phoenix Rising FC (1-0-1)
2. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 10-5-8, 38pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 2nd (57.1 points)
Max Points Available: 59pts

Magic Number: 12

Up Next: @ COS (9/20)
+
Outlook: Republic FC couldn’t hold its two-goal lead against Phoenix and dropped eight points behind FC Tulsa for first place with seven games remaining. Even with a game in hand, that’s a large margin to bridge, but a victory against Colorado Springs on Saturday night would certainly solidify the side’s hold on the No. 2 seed and leave the door open if Oakland Roots can do them a favor against Tulsa.
3. New Mexico United
Record: 10-10-3, 33pts

Playoffs Odds: 84%

Projected Finish: 4th (47.5 points)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: 17

Up Next: @ MB (9/20)
+
Outlook: United’s defeat to FC Tulsa – especially the fact it came on an own goal by Sergio Rivas on a landmark night – felt cruel. On the bright side, they did remain in third place thanks to holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over San Antonio FC as everyone else below them failed to gain maximum points. Taking victory in Monterey Bay FC won’t be easy – MBFC is in must-win territory with five games to go – but it would help the club’s bid for a top-four finish.
4. San Antonio FC
Record: 9-8-6, 33pts

Playoffs Odds: 73%

Projected Finish: 6th (44.2 points)
Max Points Available: 54pts

Magic Number: 17

Up Next: v. OC (9/20)
+
Outlook: Aside from maybe FC Tulsa, no-one had a better Week 28 than San Antonio FC in the Western Conference. Not only did SAFC romp past a 10-player Loudoun United to break its winless run, but it jumped four points in the standings as one of only two teams alongside the Scissortails to pick up all three points over the weekend. If San Antonio builds on that with a home win against Orange County SC on Saturday night, it would not only provide an even bigger boost to its playoff chances, but be very helpful to everyone else above the line right now.
5. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 8-7-8, 32pts

Playoffs Odds: 81%

Projected Finish: 5th (46.8 points)
Max Points Available: 53pts

Magic Number: 18

Up Next: v. CHS (9/20)
+
Outlook: Locomotive’s defeat at North Carolina FC shifted its projection to out of the top four. Now on a three-game winless streak, El Paso needs to try and get things moving back in the right direction, but Saturday’s visit from the Charleston Battery isn’t going to be easy.
6. Lexington SC
Record: 8-8-8, 32pts

Playoffs Odds: 84%

Projected Finish: 3rd (47.7 points)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: 18

Up Next: @ DET (9/20)
+
Outlook: The end-of-game numbers said Lexington should have got more out of its clash with Orange County SC last Friday night, and now they’re in the cut-off for the No. 8 slot based on maximum points available. The projections are rosier – anticipating that LSC could come good if it keeps playing the way it has recently – but Saturday’s trip to Detroit City should be a test.
7. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 7-7-10, 31pts

Playoffs Odds: 58%

Projected Finish: 9th (40.0 points)
Max Points Available: 49pts

Magic Number:N/A

Up Next: v. LDN (9/20)
+
Outlook: Phoenix’s comeback to earn a 2-2 draw at Sacramento Republic FC was impressive, but it still wasn’t a win. With almost everyone else in the West dropping points as well, it didn’t hurt Rising too much, but they need to take care of business at home to Loudoun United and hope that Colorado Springs and Orange County drop points in their respective contests.
8. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 8-8-7, 31pts

Playoffs Odds: 61%

Projected Finish: 8th (40.8 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: 19

Up Next: v. SAC (9/20)
+
Outlook: The Switchbacks’ comeback against the Rowdies earned a valuable point but still left their playoff chances hanging in the balance. A return home – where they’ve won two in a row – is a big opportunity against a Sacramento Republic FC side that’s also in need of all three points.
9. Orange County SC
Record: 8-9-5, 29pts

Playoffs Odds: 64%

Projected Finish: 7th (41.8 points)
Max Points Available: 53pts

Magic Number: 21

Up Next: @ SA (9/20)
+
Outlook: OCSC held on for a point in Lexington and was reprieved as the gap to the postseason places only stretched to two points as most of the teams higher up the standings also dropped points. Orange County is still in control of its path to the playoffs with eight games to go, but it needs to break its current four-game winless streak. There’d be no better time than on Saturday against San Antonio.
10. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 7-12-4, 25pts

Playoffs Odds: 41%

Projected Finish: 10th (35.7 points)
Max Points Available: 46pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: v. TUL (9/20)
+
Outlook: We did not have Oakland earning a result in Charleston on our card, so tip of the hat to Peter Wilson there, but Roots still needs to pick up the pace if it’s going to contend. Saturday’s home game against FC Tulsa is a chance to deliver another big performance while hoping the teams directly above them all head to the loss column.
11. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 6-11-7, 25pts

Playoffs Odds: 27%

Projected Finish: 11th (32.4 points)
Max Points Available: 43pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ LOU (9/20)
+
Outlook: Las Vegas’ draw with Miami was something, but not enough to make the postseason likely. This weekend’s attempt to become the first club to beat Louisville City at home in the USL Championship regular season in more than a year is up next.
12. Monterey Bay FC
Record: 6-13-6, 24pts

Playoffs Odds: 26%

Projected Finish: 12th (32.2 points)
Max Points Available: 39pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next:vs. NM (9/20)
+
Outlook: It’s not mathematically over yet, but seven points to make up and five games to go says this probably isn’t happening. The only way to change that equation is with a win against New Mexico United.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Louisville City FC
Record: 17-1-6, 57pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 1st (75.0 points)
Max Points Available: 75pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. LV (9/20)
+
Louisville City is guaranteed a top-two finish after its win against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC last Saturday night and now all that’s left is to chase down the Players’ Shield, an undefeated home record and potentially the best points-per-game average in a single season. With a six-point lead on the Charleston Battery and six games to go, there’s still work to be done for the Players’ Shield that continues Saturday at home to Las Vegas.
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 16-5-3, 51pts

Playoffs Odds: IN

Projected Finish: 2nd (68.5 points)
Max Points Available: 69pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ ELP (9/20)
+
Outlook: The Battery’s chances at the Players’ Shield seemed to take a severe blow with their draw at home to Oakland Roots SC, leaving the side with a six-point deficit to make up to Louisville City with six games to go. Charleston gets a second chance to lock up a top-four finish this weekend as it visits El Paso Locomotive where a win would see it clear of the teams in fifth place and below.

Charleston Battery Clinch Top-Four Finish IF
1. Charleston Battery win at El Paso Locomotive FC, move to 54pts
2. Charleston Battery draw at El Paso Locomotive FC, move to 52pts
AND Hartford Athletic draws/loses vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, maximum available drops to 51/50pts
OR Loudoun United FC loses at Phoenix Rising FC, maximum available drops to 52pts – Charleston holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Loudoun (1-0-1)
3. Charleston Battery loses at El Paso Locomotive FC, remains on 51pts AND Hartford Athletic draws/loses vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, maximum available drops to 51/50pts – Charleston holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Hartford (2-0-0)
3. Loudoun United FC
Record: 11-9-4, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 99%

Projected Finish: 4th (49.4 points)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: 8

Up Next: @ PHX (9/20)
+
Outlook: Saturday’s defeat wasn’t what Loudoun was looking for, but it’s still in good shape to reach the postseason and potentially the top four as it heads to face Phoenix Rising FC this weekend. A win and the right combination of results elsewhere could line up United to clinch a playoff berth next week.
4. North Carolina FC
Record: 11-9-3, 36pts

Playoffs Odds: 86%

Projected Finish: 5th (45.9 points)
Max Points Available: 57pts

Magic Number: 9

Up Next: @ TBR (9/20)
+
Outlook: It wasn’t thrilling, but North Carolina got the victory it needed against El Paso Locomotive FC last Friday night. Now it’s within a point of third place with a potentially tricky road trip against a Tampa Bay Rowdies side that is in must-win most. Victory here would potentially put NCFC in position to clinch a playoff spot next week if other results go their way.
5. Hartford Athletic
Record: 10-9-5, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 3rd (51.3 points)
Max Points Available: 53pts

Magic Number: 10

Up Next: vs. PIT (9/20)
+
Outlook: Hartford maintained its momentum with victory against Monterey Bay FC and is now projected to be a top-three side in the final standings. It’s going to get a test this weekend at home to Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC – a side historically Athletic has struggled against – making it no better time to make another statement that the page has been turned on what came before.
6. Detroit City FC
Record: 8-8-8, 32pts

Playoffs Odds: 65%

Projected Finish: 7th (40.1 points)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: 13

Up Next: vs. LEX (9/20)
+
Outlook: Detroit City has had a week to get over its loss last week to New Mexico United and can solidify its place in the playoff picture with a bounce-back performance at home. Le Rouge will certainly have plenty of teams around the Western Conference line hoping they can take all three points from Lexington SC on Saturday.
7. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 8-9-7, 31pts

Playoffs Odds: 85%

Projected Finish: 6th (45.5 points)
Max Points Available: 49pts

Magic Number: 14

Up Next: @ HFD (9/20)
+
Outlook: The Hounds are still in solid shape even despite remaining winless at home to Louisville City in their history. This weekend doesn’t get easier with a trip to scorching-hot Hartford Athletic, though, and that could be where we start to see the potential for a top-five finish start to diminish if Pittsburgh can’t get a result.
8. Rhode Island FC
Record: 7-11-6, 27pts

Playoffs Odds: 48%

Projected Finish: 9th (36.2 points)
Max Points Available: 45pts

Magic Number: 18

Up Next: @ MIA (9/19)
+
Outlook: Rhode Island took the win it had to have to move ahead of Indy with six games to play, now it’s got to press on and keep the pressure on the Boys in Blue. Victory away at last-place Miami FC is a must, which would force Indy to match that result on Sunday evening against Birmingham Legion.
9. Indy Eleven
Record: 7-12-5, 26pts

Playoffs Odds: 54%

Projected Finish: 8th (37.6 points)
Max Points Available: 44pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. BHM (9/21)
+
Outlook: The projections still favor the Boys in Blue to make it into the postseason, but last Saturday’s defeat to Rhode Island made it much more of a coin-flip. Indy will know how Rhode Island has fared well before it kicks off against Birmingham Legion FC, but it really needs to take three points at home whatever the position it’s in.
10. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 7-13-4, 25pts

Playoffs Odds: 33%

Projected Finish: 10th (33.0 points)
Max Points Available: 45pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. NC (9/20)
+
Outlook: The Rowdies got the must-win they needed against Birmingham Legion FC on Wednesday and are now within two points of eighth place. We’ve seen this before, though, and the reality is Tampa Bay has only won consecutive games in league play once this season. They need to find a way to get all three points at home to North Carolina FC on Saturday to continue their push.
11. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 4-10-10, 22pts

Playoffs Odds: 10%

Projected Finish: 12th (28.6 points)
Max Points Available: 40pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ IND (9/20)
+
Outlook: Birmingham’s bad habit of dropping points from winning positions – now 19 points dropped in the 2025 regular season – put a serious dent in its playoff chances. It’s going to need to take all three points on the road at Indy. If it loses, that may be all she wrote for this season.
12. Miami FC
Record: 5-13-6, 21pts

Playoffs Odds: 20%

Projected Finish: 11th (30.5 points)
Max Points Available: 39pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: v. RI (9/19)
+
Outlook: Technically, Miami isn’t out of it yet. If it loses at home to Rhode Island FC on Friday night – and fails to do a favor for Indy and Tampa Bay – then it’ll be a nine-point gap to make up in five games, which seems well out of reach.

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Tag(s): News  Features  San Antonio FC  CO Spring Switchbacks  Orange County SC  Phoenix Rising FC  Sacramento Republic FC  FC Tulsa  Charleston Battery  Louisville City FC  Pittsburgh Riverhounds  Tampa Bay Rowdies  Las Vegas Lights FC  Birmingham Legion FC  North Carolina FC  Indy Eleven  El Paso Locomotive FC  New Mexico United  Loudoun United FC  Hartford Athletic  Miami FC  Oakland Roots SC  Race to the Playoffs  Detroit City FC  Monterey Bay FC  Rhode Island FC  Lexington SC 

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