Aside from the scorching hot Charleston Battery at the top of the race for the USL Championship Players’ Shield, the current form side in the Eastern Conference is its Southern Derby rival North Carolina FC.

The squad completed a perfect month of May in USL-sanctioned competitions with Saturday’s 1-0 victory against the Richmond Kickers in the USL Jägermeister Cup, giving it four consecutive wins overall across the in-season tournament and the Championship.

NCFC’s push forward from making the postseason in its return to the Championship a season ago has been a good story. The likes of Mikey Maldonado and Rafael Mentzingen have each taken a step forward, with Maldonado tied for the league-lead with five assists.

But the numbers say there’s reason to be a little worried about NCFC’s overall prospects.

Across three USL Championship games in May, North Carolina outscored its opponents 7-2 but held only a slim advantage in Expected Goals - 3.43xG against 3.34xG for its opponents. What’s more, North Carolina’s opponents outshot them 41 to 31 in three outings, and while Jake McGuire proved up to the task with a save percentage of 81.8 percent, it’s equally down to profligate finishing as anything that NCFC has been able to deliver defensive success.

This has been the challenge for North Carolina FC for most of the campaign. In both Opta and American Soccer Analysis’ models, it currently has a negative Expected Goal Differential, sitting at a -2.26xGD per Opta.

While everything is going smoothly for now, it’s likely NCFC is going to need to find another level to be a serious contender at the end of the campaign.

Here are this week’s rankings.