If you’d watched Miami FC over the first month of this USL Championship season, the results would have felt familiar.

Having suffered the worst full regular season in a decade in 2024, the reconfigured side lost its first four games of the new campaign and sat with a minus-6 goal differential as its offseason reboot failed to pay immediate dividends.

Four games on? Head Coach Gastón Maddoni’s squad is forcing us to reevaluate how far it might be able to go this season.

This past Saturday, goals by Francisco Bonfiglio and Lucas Melano earned Miami a 2-1 victory against Eastern Conference leaders Loudoun United FC and the club’s first four-game undefeated streak since the 2023 season. The result moved Miami into seventh place in the Eastern Conference and equaled its win total from the 2024 regular season just eight games into the current campaign.

So, what’s going on?

• STUTTERING START: As poor as Miami looked in its opening two defeats of the season, things have improved notably since. The side missed out on earning a result due to a missed penalty kick against the Tampa Bay Rowdies on March 22, and has delivered in key moments to earn three wins out of four in closely-fought games since that setback.

• MOVING AHEAD: Starting with a 2-1 victory against San Antonio FC on April 12, Miami is in a narrow deficit in Expected Goals (5.22xG vs. 5.96xGA) but the likes of Bonfiglio have made the most of their opportunities to send Miami to three wins out of four. One of a large contingent of Argentine imports to the squad, Bonfiglio has scored in every game of the club’s four-game undefeated streak in league play.

• MEETING THE MOMENT: Saturday night’s win against Loudoun United might have been Miami’s best performance to this point. The hosts held Loudoun to a season-low six shots – the lone effort to find the net for the visitors came off a penalty kick by young star Abdellatif Aboukoura – while Miami had chances to extend its lead as it missed a penalty and hit the crossbar.

“We were a very competitive team tonight,” said Maddoni. “We played a great opponent and were able to dominate the game at many times. I feel that we deserved to win. We are in a good place. We are confident. But we must go game by game.”

The final sentiment from Maddoni might be the most important. As it stands, the question for Miami is whether its recent results are sustainable, or susceptible to regression. Over the course of its four-game undefeated run, the side has earned 10 points on a 5.28 Expected Points mark. While that’s balanced out its early-season deficit, the side’s 10.48xP mark still ranks fifth-lowest in the league overall. It also sits with a negative Expected Goal Differential of -1.23xGD for the season.

As positive as the past month has been – in addition to Miami’s regular season success, there was also a statement comeback and penalty shootout victory against the Rowdies at Al Lang Stadium in the USL Jägermeister Cup – it still feels as though there is work to be done to sustain the side’s momentum.

After the extended winless run the side experienced before its offseason overhaul, though, things are looking much brighter at Pitbull Stadium than they did at the end of last year.

Most of all, it's not the shoo-in candidate for the Eastern Conference basement we had it pegged for at the start of the season.