As an old cliché goes, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

Look at the numbers that surrounded the Tampa Bay Rowdies during the tenure of Robbie Neilson – who on Friday was dismissed as the club’s Head Coach after 42 games at the helm across all competitions – and you have an indicator of a team that should be vying for silverware.

• Since the start of the 2024 regular season, the Rowdies ranked second to Louisville City FC in Expected Goals with a mark of 68.98xG per Opta.

• The side also ranked eighth in the league with an Expected Goals Against mark of 44.08xGA per Opta.

• Combine those two and you get a +22.9 Expected Goal Differential. Only LouCity (+28.31xGD) and the Charleston Battery (+25.12xGD) had better marks across the USL Championship.

• As a result, only Louisville (73.69xP) had a higher Expected Points mark than the Rowdies at 71.68 Expected Points, per American Soccer Analysis.

It’s an indicator of the company the Rowdies could – and maybe should – have been keeping. 

The reality, however, was very different. The Rowdies underperformed their metrics at both ends of the field. The side scored only 58 goals – fifth-most in the league, but almost 11 off its projected total – and conceded 51 times, including six goals that per Opta came via errors.

That resulted in the side gaining only 53 points during Neilson’s tenure in the Championship’s regular season. The Rowdies went .500 overall across all competitions with a 17-17-8 record. For a club that expects to be among the contenders in an increasingly competitive Eastern Conference in the USL Championship, it wasn’t going to be enough.

Add to that the fact that Neilson himself seemed to be increasingly frustrated by the manner his side was putting his game plan into action, and it made the situation likely untenable.

“You’ll make mistakes. That’s part of the game,” said Neilson following the Rowdies’ loss to the Charleston Battery, the final game of his tenure. “The worst thing in football is when you’re not playing positive. When you get the ball, your first thought has always got to be trying to go forward.

“There were moments in the game tonight where we were just always looking to go backward. That’s not football in my opinion. It’s certainly not the club we want to be.” 

Now the Rowdies will turn to Steve Coleman to try and right the ship as the side enters its home opener against current Eastern Conference leader Loudoun United FC. As the club returns to Al Lang Stadium on Saturday night, the atmosphere promises to be crackling when the Rowdies play their first game at their waterfront home in 210 days.

As the club’s underlying numbers suggest, there should be a good team in this squad for Coleman – who brings a sturdy resume to the table, including time with Loudoun last season – to try and piece together.

“We believe in this roster – its talent, resilience, and ability to compete at the highest level in the USL Championship,” said Rowdies Vice Chairman Brian Auld on Friday. “To our fans: your continued support means everything, and we remain focused on delivering a team that represents the pride and passion of Tampa Bay.” 

At the same time, it might be just as useful for the Rowdies to have some good fortune slide their way as well, given how short of it on the field the club has been over the past 13 months.