Early in the 2023 season, Monterey Bay FC was a team you wanted to tune into, just to see what would happen.
The side scored 15 goals in its first seven games, including a five-spot against Hartford Athletic to start the season, a four-goal game in a track meet against New Mexico United, and three on the road against Indy Eleven.
The problem? All the club’s underlying numbers were flashing bright red warning lights. Monterey Bay’s shot conversion rate sat at 35.7 percent, its shooting accuracy rate at 57.1 percent, and its Expected Goals mark was 8.35.
As expected, it ended up being a mirage. Monterey Bay scored only 27 goals in its remaining 27 games and finished in 11th place in the Western Conference.
With the side having put up 10 goals across three games in the past eight days, including an Open Cup blowout, you could get a sense of déjà vu, but it certainly looks like there’s much more substance to what Head Coach Jordan Stewart has cooking at Cardinale Stadium than what came before.
Saturday’s dominant 3-0 victory against Orange County SC, in fact, was comfortably the best league performance the side has delivered since Stewart was appointed last August, ending OCSC’s 10-game regular season undefeated streak as the newcomers MBFC brought in this offseason showed positive chemistry.
Led by Ilijah Paul’s two-goal, one-assist performance, Monterey Bay peeled off big chances against its hosts, pulling away for a convincing win. It’s still early, but the side is now tied for the league-lead with six goals that have come on 3.88xG – a far better ratio than two years ago – while also sitting at a 50 percent shooting accuracy rate and 27.3 shot conversion rate.
There’s a long way to go for Monterey Bay – including a fascinating clash on CBS Sports Golazo Network this Saturday against Phoenix Rising – but the offseason promotion the club put out offering a rebate on season tickets if the club missed the postseason for a fourth consecutive campaign isn’t looking as far-fetched as we thought in preseason.
Here are the rest of this week’s rankings.
Rank |
Team |
Change |
Summary |
|
1 | ![]() |
Louisville City FC (2-0-1) Week 4: vs. DET |
![]() Last Week: 1 |
When LouCity’s in that sort of form, it’s hard to resist. The club’s nine instances of possession won in the final third against Loudoun matched the season high in the league through three weeks. |
2 | ![]() |
San Antonio FC (3-0-0) Week 4: @ LEX |
![]() Last Week: 9 |
They might have conceded for the first time this season, but San Antonio’s the last perfect team standing this season. Things are moving very nicely under Head Coach Carlos Llamosa. |
3 | ![]() |
Sacramento Republic FC (1-0-1) Week 4: @ TUL |
![]() Last Week: 2 |
Saturday was a bad flashback to last season, when Republic FC tied for the most points dropped from winning positions in the regular season, and it was mostly self-inflicted. |
4 | ![]() |
Charleston Battery (1-1-0) Week 4: @ NC |
![]() Last Week: 3 |
The Battery had the weekend off before the Southern Derby this weekend at North Carolina FC. Should be a good one at First Horizon Stadium. |
5 | ![]() |
New Mexico United (2-1-0) Week 4: @ MIA |
![]() Last Week: 5 |
United had to be patient in trying to pick apart the Locomotive back line, but the duo of Mukwelle Akale and Greg Hurst delivered beautifully late. Really solid performance overall. |
6 | ![]() |
Detroit City FC (2-0-1) Week 4: @ LOU |
![]() Last Week: 4 |
Head Coach Danny Dichio called Saturday’s draw with Birmingham Legion one the side let get away from them. The good news? Darren Smith’s looking like a very good addition. |
7 | ![]() |
Monterey Bay FC (2-1-0) Week 4: vs. PHX |
![]() Last Week: 21 |
Monterey Bay has scored three goals in consecutive games, and unlike a couple of years ago this looks much more sustainable. MBFC is above average in Expected Goals, shooting accuracy and conversion rate. |
8 | ![]() |
Indy Eleven (1-0-1) Week 4: vs. COS |
![]() Last Week: 6 |
Indy should be happy enough with a point on the road in Lexington. Didn’t create a ton of chances, but Bruno Rendón took his opportunity beautifully. |
9 | ![]() |
Rhode Island FC (0-1-1) Week 4: @ LDN |
![]() Last Week: 7 |
When JJ Williams is at his best, he’s an absolute handful for opposing defenses. Between his finishing and creative instincts and ability to win balls in the air, phenomenal centerpiece. |
10 | ![]() |
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC (0-1-2) Week 4: @ IND |
![]() Last Week: 10 |
After letting leads get away in each of the first two weeks, the Switchbacks persisted long enough to mount a rally of their own in Sacramento. Still need that first win, though. |
11 | ![]() |
Lexington SC (1-0-2) Week 4: vs. SA |
![]() Last Week: 13 |
Putting together as strong a performance against Indy Eleven as that is commendable stuff from LSC, and Marcus Epps looks like the player who starred for FC Tulsa in 2023 again. |
12 | ![]() |
North Carolina FC (1-1-1) Week 4: vs. CHS |
![]() Last Week: 14 |
Yes, there was an element of good fortune about Pedro Dolabella’s first goal in the USL Championship, but he alongside NCFC’s substitutes had a game-changing effect in Tulsa. Important win. |
13 | ![]() |
Orange County SC (1-1-1) Week 4: --- |
![]() Last Week: 8 |
That was a major bump in the road for OCSC, which registered its lowest single-game Expected Goals mark (0.18) since Danny Stone was appointed last August in its loss to Monterey Bay, taking only three shots. |
14 | ![]() |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC (1-1-1) Week 4: vs. BHM |
![]() Last Week: 15 |
The Hounds didn’t create a ton offensively against Hartford on Saturday, but that which they did was decent quality. Nice win on the night they celebrated Kenardo Forbes’ career. |
15 | ![]() |
FC Tulsa (2-1-0) Week 4: @ SAC |
![]() Last Week: 12 |
A small step backward for FC Tulsa, which needed to take advantage of the upper hand it held in the first half against North Carolina before the visitors’ substitutes changed the game. |
16 | ![]() |
Loudoun United FC (2-1-0) Week 4: VS. RI |
![]() Last Week: 11 |
A bit of a reality check for Loudoun in Louisville. There just wasn’t quite enough incisiveness to go along with the possession. We’re not too down on this team’s potential, though. |
17 | ![]() |
Phoenix Rising FC (0-1-2) Week 4: @ MB |
![]() Last Week: 17 |
As Head Coach Pa-Modou Kah noted after the game, the slow starts Phoenix is making can’t continue. Rising is the only team to have already conceded twice in the opening 15 minutes this season. |
18 | ![]() |
Birmingham Legion FC (0-1-2) Week 4: @ PIT |
![]() Last Week: 19 |
On one hand, Legion’s comeback against Detroit was impressive. On the other, they’ve also led for only three minutes across four games in all competitions. |
19 | ![]() |
Las Vegas Lights FC (1-1-0) Week 4: @ OAK |
![]() Last Week: 18 |
The Lights head to Oakland on Saturday night after a week off. We’re curious to see if they can build on the second-half success they had against New Mexico. |
20 | ![]() |
Tampa Bay Rowdies (1-2-0) Week 4: --- |
![]() Last Week: 20 |
The Rowdies came through for a seventh consecutive victory against Miami FC on Saturday night, but we’re still not completely sold as they head into a bye week. |
21 | ![]() |
El Paso Locomotive FC (0-1-2) Week 4: @ HFD |
![]() Last Week: 16 |
Locomotive got the game they were looking for but couldn’t execute cleanly enough on the limited chances they created. When that happens, you’re leaving it open for one mistake to be costly. |
22 | ![]() |
Hartford Athletic (0-2-0) Week 4: vs. ELP |
![]() Last Week: 22 |
Hartford’s midweek performance in the Open Cup looked like the attacking prowess we were expecting, but it took another step back in Pittsburgh. In two games, Athletic are the only goalless club. |
23 | ![]() |
Oakland Roots SC (0-3-0) Week 4: vs. LV |
![]() Last Week: 23 |
The scene on Saturday night was one of the most remarkable in Championship history. The performances are going to have to get better, though. |
24 | ![]() |
Miami FC (0-3-0) Week 4: vs. NM |
![]() Last Week: 24 |
After Francisco Bonfiglio’s penalty miss, Miami has lost seven in a row to the Rowdies and 11 in a row in the league going back to last season. At least the Open Cup performance showed promise. |
Tag(s): Power Rankings San Antonio FC CO Spring Switchbacks Orange County SC Phoenix Rising FC Sacramento Republic FC FC Tulsa Charleston Battery Louisville City FC Pittsburgh Riverhounds Tampa Bay Rowdies Las Vegas Lights FC Birmingham Legion FC North Carolina FC Indy Eleven El Paso Locomotive FC New Mexico United Loudoun United FC Hartford Athletic Miami FC Oakland Roots SC Detroit City FC Monterey Bay FC Rhode Island FC Lexington SC