As we enter the 2025 USL Championship preseason, how is the theoretical temperature of your club looking?
We think we have the answer.
Based on a brilliant idea by ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle, we’re going to use a little math to determine which teams are approaching boiling point, and which are cooling off after their absence from the postseason over the last couple of years.
Here’s how it works: The starting temperature for each club at the inception of its tenure in the USL Championship – see 2011 for the Charleston Battery, Orange County SC and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, or 2015 for Louisville City FC and 2024 for Rhode Island FC – is 72 degrees Fahrenheit, or room temperature.
From there, each club gains heat from its on-field achievements each season.
- Finish above .500: +5 degrees
- Earn 59 percent of available regular season points: +3 degrees
- Reach the Playoffs: +2 degrees
- Each Playoff Win: +2 degrees
- USL Championship Final Runner-Up: +15 degrees
- USL Championship Final Winner: +25 degrees
After that’s been calculated, the next season's beginning temperature is 90.85% of the previous season's total, and teams continue to accumulate – or not – based on their success.
Got it? Good.
Here we go.
Louisville City FC's first USL Championship Players' Shield added to a trophy case that also features two USL Championship titles and four Eastern Conference titles. | Photo courtesy Em-Dash Photography / Louisville City FC
Franchise Peak: 179.4° in 2022
Franchise Low: 81° in 2015
Year-on-Year Change: -3.9°
It should be no surprise that Louisville City FC tops the list given the club’s consistency year-in and year-out over its first 10 seasons. When you’ve played in a league-high four USL Championship Finals and won two of them, it’s going to give you a big lead over the rest of the pack in these rankings.
Missing out on postseason success has seen Louisville slide a fraction from its peak at the end of the 2022 season when it not only earned one of the two biggest bonuses for reaching the USL Championship Final but also maxed out its available points in the regular season. It’s not unthinkable the side could be the first to top 200 degrees by the end of this year.
Franchise Peak: 134.8° in 2023
Franchise Low: 59.4° in 2016
Year-on-Year Change: -10.4°
Despite the general disappointment of a season ago, Rising is still feeling the aftereffects of its remarkable run to the 2023 Championship title as new Head Coach Pa-Modou Kah takes the reins at Phoenix Rising Stadium.
Phoenix’s consistency in the years prior to its last playoff absence in 2022 set a strong foundation for this position as well. Between 2017 and 2021 the side reached two USL Championship Finals and led the league in regular season wins with a 90-29-28 record. It’ll take something special to close the gap to LouCity in first, but this is why the expectations around Rising are so high every preseason.
Franchise Peak: 121.8° in 2012
Franchise Low: 89.1° in 2022
Year-on-Year Change: +3.3°
After the low-point of a second consecutive postseason miss in 2022, the Battery’s past two campaigns have put them on the brink of surpassing their all-time peak in the USL Championship era when they claimed the title in 2012. The progression in regular season points from 2023 to 2024 also suggests a club that could be a Players’ Shield contender this season despite the loss of Player of the Year Nick Markanich to CD Castellon of LaLiga 2.
What kept the Battery above 100 degrees for so long aside from its title, though, was its consistency year-in and year-out. The side reached 10 consecutive postseasons to start the USL Championship era, including a stellar 2017 that saw the side finish second in the East. With Head Coach Ben Pirmann remaining at the helm there’s a good chance a new peak could be reached this season.
Franchise Peak: 123.1° in 2022
Franchise Low: 73.6° in 2018
Year-on-Year Change: -2.1°
It might seem counterintuitive that the Tampa Bay Rowdies’ peak came the year after its most recent advancement to the USL Championship Final, but in 2022 the side was among the most dominant in the league as it maximized its regular season points and then advanced to another Eastern Conference Final before falling to Louisville City FC.
The 2018 season aside, the Rowdies have been among the most consistent clubs in the league, accumulating the second-most regular season wins and a 1.74 points-per-game average in the regular season since their arrival in the Championship in 2017. That puts them in position to ascend to the No. 2 slot this season.
Franchise Peak: 100° in 2024
Franchise Low: N/A
Year-on-Year Change: +28°
The USL Championship Final aside, you couldn’t have hoped for a better inaugural season than the one Rhode Island FC put together last year. The side built up a massive point total based on its above-.500 record, postseason berth and Eastern Conference title.
It’s going to be fascinating to see what Year 2 holds for Head Coach Khano Smith and his side as they move into their new venue at Tidewater Landing, but it shouldn’t be a surprise if RIFC is pushing higher up these standings at the end of this season.
Franchise Peak: 98.1° in 2024
Franchise Low: 54.9° in 2020
Year-on-Year Change: +34.1°
Colorado Springs has gone from a club-low at the end of 2020 to four consecutive postseason appearances and its first league title to rise up the rankings. | Photo courtesy Isaiah J. Downing / Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Yes, last year’s USL Championship title winner is narrowly below the side it defeated in the final in these rankings, but it speaks to how far the Switchbacks have come in the past four seasons under the club’s current leadership that they’re this high overall. At the end of 2020, the Switchbacks were coming off four consecutive years without a postseason appearance or a season above .500 to drop the side to the lowest point in its history.
Four consecutive postseason trips later and a first league title last November have turned things in the right direction and set a platform for more. The Switchbacks are continuing to build around a culture they trust and that should keep the side trending up this year.
Franchise Peak: 107.1° in 2022
Franchise Low: 63.9° in 2019
Year-on-Year Change: -9.7°
Very little went right for San Antonio FC during the past campaign, marking the first time the side had missed the postseason since 2019, which also marked the club’s low-point after missing the playoffs in three of its first four years. After a resurgence led by former Head Coach Alen Marcina resulted in a title in 2022 before last year’s drop-off, new Head Coach Carlos Llamosa is now going to try and turn things back in the right direction.
SAFC has been busy adding pieces including a top center back in Alex Crognale that should match well with returning stalwart Mitchell Taintor. The retention of Jorge Hernandez was also an important piece of work by Sporting Director Marco Ferruzzi. After last year’s downturn, San Antonio is going to be aiming to be back in the playoffs and getting back on the boil again.
Franchise Peak: 113° in 2014
Franchise Low: 92° in 2021
Year-on-Year Change: -2°
For a club of Sacramento Republic FC’s history, it’s probably surprising how little separation there is between its all-time high so far after its victory in the USL Championship Final in its inaugural season and its low-point in 2021, which marks the only year the side has failed to reach the playoffs.
That’s in part because as consistently as Republic FC has made the postseason, its playoff record hasn’t been terrific over the years. The side has yet to return to the USL Championship Final since its inaugural year – 2023’s defeat at home to Phoenix Rising in the Western Conference Final was a missed opportunity to add some heat to this ranking – and that’s where Sacramento is going to have to rise under new Head Coach Neill Collins to push to new heights this year.
Franchise Peak: 88.1° in 2023
Franchise Low: 54.1° in 2022
Year-on-Year Change: -1.1°
How do you deal with the conundrum that is North Carolina FC’s tenure in the USL Championship and League One? We’ve decided to play by the same rules for all of NCFC’s seasons since it joined the USL in 2018, which means its two seasons in League One in which it finished well off the pace for the playoffs is counterbalanced by its title in 2023, which is essentially the high-point of its history overall as its lone league title.
Not that NCFC didn’t impress in its return to the Championship last year. It finished above .500 and earned a playoff berth, which allowed it to effectively tread water without losing too much steam. With a strong contingent of players coming back for the new season, they’ll try to push on from here and earn a first postseason win in the Championship.
Franchise Peak: 99.1° in 2021
Franchise Low: 56.8 in 2017
Year-on-Year Change: -4.3°
Orange County SC has one of the more fluctuating histories of any club in the USL Championship. Its high point was, of course, winning the league title in 2021, which was immediately followed by a season in which it missed the playoffs while having the league’s Golden Boot winner in Milan Iloski in its squad. Go figure.
Despite having some spectacular seasons – the 2018 campaign in which it finished top of the Western Conference comes to mind – there’s been an inconsistency to OCSC over the years that’s meant it hasn’t been able to sustain success year after year. As Head Coach Danny Stone takes the helm permanently after last year’s success late in the season, they’ll be aiming to trend up this year.
Franchise Peak: 81.8° in 2023
Franchise Low: 56.9° in 2017
Year-on-Year Change: -0.5°
The upward trajectory of Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC since current Head Coach Bob Lilley’s arrival before 2018 might be best indicated in the fact that this past season was the first in which the club had seen its temperature drop over the past seven seasons, and then only by half-a-degree. The challenge, of course, has been the incremental nature of the rise as the Hounds missed out on deep playoff runs in both 2019 and 2023 when they finished top of the Eastern Conference.
After securing a seventh consecutive postseason berth last year, though, there’s a strong core group coming back to Highmark Stadium again this season that has a chance to push the side to a new high and into the top 10 of the rankings.
Detroit City FC has quickly become a perennial playoff contender since joining the USL Championship and is now looking to push higher and make a postseason run. | Photo courtesy Jon DeBoer / Detroit City FC
Franchise Peak: 79° in 2022
Franchise Low: 75.8° in 2023
Year-on-Year Change: +0.1°
Detroit City’s acclimation has been impressive, and after the best regular season in the club’s three seasons in the league Le Rouge could have gone higher if not for being upset in the opening round of the playoffs last year. There’s the promise of the club’s new stadium in the Corktown District on the horizon, and while there are some big changes including the departure of legendary goalkeeper Nate Steinwascher as he retires from the professional game, Head Coach Danny Dichio should be aiming to keep the side on the rise this season.
Franchise Peak: 80.8° in 2020
Franchise Low: 73° in 2023
Year-on-Year Change: +2.3°
As consistent as New Mexico United has been in reaching the postseason, doing so in five out of its six seasons, it sits in the middle of the pack for a couple of reasons. The first is where it’s finished in the standings to earn those postseason berths – United has never hit the bonus for finishing with at least 59 percent of the available points in a regular season, missing out by two points as it finished top of the Western Conference for the first time last year – and it has only won two playoff games in its history after its Western Conference Semifinals exit to Las Vegas Lights last November.
That makes its remarkable 2020 campaign in which it finished above .500 and knocked out San Antonio FC in the Western Conference Quarterfinals while playing every game of the abbreviated campaign outside New Mexico’s borders its current peak. If Head Coach Dennis Sanchez pushes the side beyond that mark this year, it will have been a very successful campaign.
Franchise Peak: 91.2° in 2021
Franchise Low: 70.2° in 2024
Year-on-Year Change: -6.9°
Unlike its Derby del Camino Real rival, El Paso Locomotive FC has achieved higher highs than New Mexico United with consecutive appearances in the Western Conference Final in its first two seasons and then a club-best regular season in 2021 that brought it past 90 degrees for the first time.
Since its upset against Oakland Roots SC to start that postseason, however, it’s been a pretty rapid descent for Locomotive. The side has missed the playoffs in two of the past three seasons to drop it to a low point in its history going into 2025 as Head Coach Wilmer Cabrera attempts to right the ship.
Franchise Peak: 81° in 2021
Franchise Low: 70.1° in 2024
Year-on-Year Change: -7.1°
Having missed the postseason for the first time in its history in 2024, there should be no surprise that Legion is at its lowest temperature in club history going into the new season. What might be surprising is for a team that’s been a consistent playoff presence each year it didn’t have further to fall from.
Part of that is because of missed bonuses and expanded playoffs. In two of the seasons in which Legion reached the postseason (2019, 2023) it finished with a record below .500 in terms of wins and losses, missing out on the biggest available boost in the regular season. Add in the side has yet to reach an Eastern Conference Final and the bonuses for playoff wins aren’t there either. With a retooled roster, Head Coach Tom Soehn is going to try and lift the team back this year.
Franchise Peak: 85.8° in 2019
Franchise Low: 64.4° in 2022
Year-on-Year Change: +1°
Yes, this really is where Indy Eleven lands in the first edition of these rankings. The past two seasons and the playoff berths that have come with them have eked the side forward since the club’s third consecutive playoff miss in 2022 but the Boys in Blue have yet to recapture the magic of the 2019 campaign that saw the side finish in the top three in the Eastern Conference and advance to the Eastern Conference Final before its heartbreaking elimination by LIPAFC rival Louisville City.
Last year’s run to the Semifinals of the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup offers some hope despite a second consecutive one-and-done in the playoffs. After recording the second-most wins in a regular season in the Championship since it joined in 2018, it’s onward and upward for Head Coach Sean McAuley’s squad this year.
Oakland Roots SC has built a loyal following over the first half of the decade that is set to join them at the Oakland Coliseum this year. | Photo courtesy Mario Cendejas / Oakland Roots SC
Franchise Peak: 78° in 2022
Franchise Low: 66.4° in 2024
Year-on-Year Change: -3.5°
The key reason why Oakland Roots SC returned to the postseason last year but still saw its temperature drop year-on-year was the inconsistency the side showed in the regular season. Getting into the playoffs is fine, but Roots did so while losing almost half of its regular season games before pulling out of its tailspin just in time.
Finding consistency, especially in the attacking third, is key for Head Coach Gavin Glinton to handle this year having been appointed as permanent Head Coach after his interim stint last year. Oakland scored only 37 goals in 34 games, so hopefully Panos Armenakas brought some lighter fluid and kindling to get the temperature up at the Coliseum.
Franchise Peak: 72° in 2023
Franchise Low: 65.4° in 2024
Year-on-Year Change: -6.6°
Similarly to North Carolina FC, we’re going to factor Lexington SC’s first two seasons in USL League One into their rating. Having missed the postseason in both years, there’s nowhere to go but up for new Head Coach Terry Boss, but there is a large contingent of experienced USL Championship-level talent at his disposal such as 2024 holdover Cameron Lancaster and new arrivals Speedy Williams, Kendall Burks and Logan Ketterer that should offer some optimism the side can find a new gear.
Franchise Peak: 72.8° in 2022
Franchise Low: 60° in 2024
Year-on-Year Change: -6.1°
Yes, Miami FC is coming off a historically bad 2024 season, but the scale only asks what you did or did not accomplish, not the manner in which you accomplished it. Miami’s consecutive postseason berths in 2021 and 2022 at least gave it a little bit of cushion as it refocuses for the 2025 season where changes led by new board members Sebastian Veron and Dario Sala are on the way.
Franchise Peak: 72° in 2022
Franchise Low: 59.4° in 2024
Year-on-Year Change: -6°
Three seasons have yielded some notable results for Monterey Bay FC but not the consistency to reach the playoffs or get close to .500 in a regular season campaign. That’s the task for Head Coach Jordan Stewart in a year where the club is offering a 20% refund on season tickets if the side doesn’t make the postseason.
Las Vegas Lights FC achieved its best season in club history in 2024, advancing to the postseason and the Western Conference Final, giving it a platform to build on as it enters the new campaign. | Photo courtesy Lucas Peltier / Las Vegas Lights FC
Franchise Peak: 72° in 2018
Franchise Low: 44.6° in 2023
Year-on-Year Change: +6.9°
Last year was transformative for Las Vegas Lights FC as the side reached the playoffs for the first time, hosted its first playoff game and advanced to the Western Conference Final in the postseason, providing the first uptick in temperature the club has experienced. A healthy rating can’t be rebuilt in one season, but the Lights have retained a large contingent of the players that brought them success as they try to build on last year under new Head Coach Antonio Nocerino.
Franchise Peak: 75.4° in 2020
Franchise Low: 51.3° in 2024
Year-on-Year Change: -5.2°
In isolation, this doesn’t look good for Hartford – and our graphic up top probably isn’t helping much either. But last year was actually a very good one in terms of Athletic’s progression toward a second postseason berth in club history. The club more than doubled its point total from 2023 to finish four points out of a playoff spot and has added two young attacking pieces already in Jonathan Jimenez and Samuel Careaga. There should be optimism for what’s ahead here.
Franchise Peak: 72° in 2019
Franchise Low: 44.6° in 2024
Year-on-Year Change: -4.5°
Along similar lines to Hartford Athletic, last year wasn’t a bad one for Loudoun United as it moved more fully into its independent era. The formula doesn’t factor in the side set a club record for the most points in a campaign or how close it was to reaching the playoffs before fading in the last four games to miss out.
At the same time, United is the only club that played its first game in the 2010s that has yet to reach the postseason. That’s going to have to change.
Franchise Peak: 72° in 2015
Franchise Low: 41.3° in 2024
Year-on-Year Change: -4.2°
Having completed its first 10 seasons, FC Tulsa comes in at the bottom of these initial rankings due to its current three-season absence from the USL Championship Playoffs and two winning seasons overall. This ranking is as much about the club’s longevity as anything – it has been to the postseason three times, including once when it had a losing record in 2017 – but with a new leadership team in place with Head Coach Luke Spencer, Sporting Director Caleb Sewell and Technical Director Mario Sanchez, the vibes are right for a resurgence.
Tag(s): Features San Antonio FC CO Spring Switchbacks Orange County SC Phoenix Rising FC Sacramento Republic FC FC Tulsa Charleston Battery Louisville City FC Pittsburgh Riverhounds Tampa Bay Rowdies Las Vegas Lights FC Birmingham Legion FC North Carolina FC Indy Eleven El Paso Locomotive FC New Mexico United Loudoun United FC Hartford Athletic Miami FC Oakland Roots SC Detroit City FC Monterey Bay FC Rhode Island FC Lexington SC