The 2024 USL Championship Playoffs presented by Terminix are almost here, but for some clubs it’s already time to look ahead to the offseason. In the Championship’s Western Conference, the field for the postseason is already set with a game to play, which means there are four clubs trying to figure out the road ahead.

Here’s our look at where things didn’t quite go right for the four teams that won’t be in the postseason in the West, and where there could be room for optimism moving forward.

San Antonio FC

Where it went wrong: San Antonio has suffered more than twice as many defeats as it did a season ago, going from six losses in 2023 to 14 so far this campaign. There have been issues in a few areas – the side’s underlying defensive numbers aren’t much different to a season ago at a 35.99 Expected Goals Against mark, only for the side to have conceded 45 times – but the attack has simply failed to produce consistently.

That’s not really on the incoming forwards like Juan Agudelo. Last year, San Antonio scored 63 goals on a 50.54 Expected Goals mark while notching 56 Big Chances Created. This season, it’s at 35 goals on a 33.72 Expected Goals mark with 37 Big Chances Created, illustrating the steep drop in chance creation the side has seen. Jorge Hernandez’s 80 individual chances created and nine assists have him in contention for a second consecutive Golden Playmaker award, but Luke Haakenson ranks second on the team with 23 chances created, as wide a margin as you’ll find at any club.

Why there’s room for optimism: San Antonio is a team that expects to contend, so it’s likely to be aggressive in the offseason in adding more creators that can complement Agudelo and Hernandez in the attacking third. The more possession-based style Head Coach Alen Marcina was aiming to play early in the season should have a better opportunity to take hold, and if Marcina and Sporting Director Marco Ferruzzi can go out and find players who offer a similar sensibility to Hernandez so he doesn’t have to carry the entire playmaking burden, this team should be back as a contender.

FC Tulsa

Where it went wrong: An answer to this is FC Tulsa’s season – which at time showed promise and identified good future pieces – might have simply been derailed by the change in direction the club took mid-offseason. At one point, the side had added a handful of potential key players like Jeremy Kelly, Justin Portillo, and Charlie Adams but the sudden departure of former Head Coach Blair Gavin from the sidelines and appointment of Mario Sanchez as his replacement in mid-January quickly saw the team change direction in roster construction to the point where Kelly and Adams never saw action for the side. As such, Tulsa began to rebuild on the fly. Young prospect Nate Worth was sent to Tampa Bay in May, Portillo was moved on to Sacramento in June, and Phillip Goodrum’s transfer clause was triggered by Louisville City FC in August, leaving the side looking much different than expected.

Add some injuries that kept potential impact makers like Arthur Rogers sidelined meant that while there was plenty of endeavor on the field, it never quite came together cohesively as well as it might have. Tulsa’s 32.7 Expected Goals mark is third-lowest in the league going to the final weekend of the season, while it Expected Goals on Target mark – based on post-shot data – is a league-lowest 15.6xGOT. While goalkeeper Johan Peñaranda dazzled at times, the side’s 54.4 Expected Goals Against mark was second highest in the league. That’s just not going to get a team into the postseason.

Why there’s room for optimism: The upheaval of last offseason isn’t going to happen again, and in Sanchez and assistant coach Luke Spencer they have a duo that knows what it takes to win in the USL Championship from their time at Louisville City FC. They’ve found a goalkeeper in Peñaranda and some other potential pieces that can be useful moving forward. Now they need to put in a plan in terms of a defined style and find players who can execute. That can be easier said than done as the league continues to trend up in terms of competition, but we’re expecting a more cohesive campaign from Tulsa next year. 

Monterey Bay F.C.

Where it went wrong: To put it bluntly, Monterey Bay’s attacking corps couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn. The side’s 41.9 percent shooting accuracy rate currently ranks second-lowest in the league, as does its shot conversion rate of 7.7 percent. That resulted in the side recording 28 goals on a 35.8 Expected Goals mark. Former Head Coach Frank Yallop’s desire was to play attacking soccer rather than try to grind out results, but a combination of injuries to key personnel – most notably offseason additions Luther Archimede and Tristan Trager – and underperformance elsewhere meant that wasn’t going to be a viable way forward.

The other side of the attacking ideas Monterey Bay wanted to employ was it meant there was a shooting gallery at the other end of the field. Monterey Bay has given up 178 shots on target this season – the most of any team in the Western Conference – as opponents have put 38.7 percent of their overall shots on target. As good as goalkeepers Antony Siaha and Carlos Herrera were in the face of that – Siaha has a -1.64 Goals Prevented mark and Herrera sits at -2.16 – the consistent pressure the side faced eventually told in its results.

Why there’s room for optimism: The positive for Monterey Bay has been since Jordan Stewart’s appointment as Head Coach on August 5, the defensive numbers have started to move in the right direction. MBFC is allowing fewer shots – 14.4 to 13.1 per game – fewer shots on target – 5.59 to 5 per game – and has lowered its goals-against average from 1.31 to 1.18. A good way to improve your chances of winning is making yourself more difficult to play against, and Monterey Bay can achieve that. If its forward group also finds a way to start putting chances on target more consistently, then this side can be in the playoff conversation.

El Paso Locomotive FC

Where it went wrong: Locomotive lost seven of its first 10 games to sit with only five points when it parted ways with Head Coach Brian Clarhaut on May 17 and until a late-season progression – which we’ll get to in a moment – it didn’t get all that much better. El Paso became the first team mathematically eliminated from playoff contention in the West and its minus-17 goal differential is currently the worst in the conference.

The biggest reason for that was Locomotive’s finishing was stuck in a rut for most of the season. Its overall numbers weren’t bad. El Paso is tied for fifth in shooting accuracy at 49.7 percent and sits seventh in shots on target with 149 going to the final game, but the quality of its finishing just wasn’t good enough. Locomotive’s Expected Goal mark of 37.8xG is below league average, but its Expected Goals on Target mark of 26.1 – based on post-shot data – is a decent explanation of why the side has scored only 27 goals this season.

Why there’s room for optimism: It took a while for things to come together under new Head Coach Wilmer Cabrera since his appointment three days following Clarhaut’s departure, but the last third of the season has seen Locomotive turn a corner. The side has earned 16 points from its last 10 games with four wins and four draws since August 17 while showing a good level of defensive solidity in allowing only seven goals in that span. Keep that pace up for a full season and Locomotive’s on 55 points, and in second place in this year’s Western Conference. With an offseason to add some more pieces, Locomotive feels like it’s already heading in the right direction for 2025.