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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – October 23-26

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 10/21/24, 4:25PM EDT

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The final spots in the Eastern Conference are up for grabs, while out West three of the top four slots will be claimed on the final day of the season


A top-four finish in the Western Conference is within reach of Sacramento Republic FC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC as they square off on Saturday night at Heart Health Park. | Photo courtesy Isaiah J. Downing / Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC

Welcome to the latest edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs presented by Terminix, where we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2024 USL Championship Playoffs in October.

Going into the final week, all the slots in the West are secured, and there are two slots up for grabs in the Eastern Conference after the Tampa Bay Rowdies’ draw on Wednesday night against Hartford Athletic secured both their and Rhode Island FC’s berths in the postseason. There remains the potential for a four-way tie for those two spots, however, with Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and North Carolina FC controlling their paths into the playoffs.

This season, we’re grateful to our friend John Morrissey at USL Tactics for providing the data for playoff projections. Now, here are some games to watch this weekend and an overview of where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Saturday, October 26
North Carolina FC
Las Vegas Lights FC
7:00 PM
Stadium IconWakeMed Soccer Park
Match Center
Tickets

There’s plenty on the line for both North Carolina FC and Las Vegas Lights FC when they meet to close the season, with NCFC’s playoff chances at stake as well as which seed the Lights will take in the top four of the West. Thanks to Hartford Athletic dropping points on Wednesday night against the Tampa Bay Rowdies, North Carolina is guaranteed a postseason berth with a victory on home turf. Las Vegas, meanwhile, is set to finish in the top four due to the contest between Sacramento Republic FC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, but if they earn all three points it would guarantee the No. 2 seed ahead of any other rival before the late kickoffs.

Saturday, October 26
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
El Paso Locomotive FC
7:00 PM
Stadium IconHighmark Stadium
Match Center
Tickets

The one thing we think we can confidently say is if Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC wins against El Paso Locomotive FC, it will be in the playoffs. In the case of a three-way tie alongside Rhode Island FC and North Carolina FC, the Hounds don’t have the head-to-head tiebreakers over both of its rivals, Pittsburgh and North Carolina drew twice, but they have the best points-per-game mark against in-conference opponents of the three – 1.5 ppg, compared to Rhode Island’s 1.41ppg and North Carolina’s 1.27ppg – which would put them on top of the trio in any three-way scenario. But El Paso has already proven it’s ready to be a spoiler during this run-in despite being mathematically eliminated and is likely to want to go through the final game of their campaign in a positive manner, which means the Hounds are going to need to be sharp to get the result they need.

Saturday, October 26
New Mexico United
Memphis 901 FC
9:00 PM
Stadium IconRio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park
Match Center
Tickets

New Mexico United has been guaranteed the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference for a few weeks, but its home regular season finale is huge for visiting Memphis 901 FC, which could jump as high as the No. 2 seed by the end of the night. To get there, however, 901 FC will have to take victory – a draw does it no good as it doesn’t hold the tiebreaker over either Sacramento Republic FC or Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC. With United looking to end a four-game winless streak and build momentum before the playoffs, that could result in an attacking contest in which both sides will be eager for all three points.

Saturday, October 26
Sacramento Republic FC
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
10:00 PM
Stadium IconHeart Health Park
Match Center
Tickets

Sacramento Republic FC’s clash with Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC could end up as a playoff for which side starts the postseason at home, and which starts on the road. The X-factor in that is how Memphis 901 FC fares on the road against New Mexico United. Should 901 FC fail to take victory then both Sacramento and Colorado Springs will be playing for seeding knowing they’ll both be at home to start the playoffs. If 901 FC wins, however – which theoretically would be confirmed around halftime of this contest – then it could make for a very interesting second half. Republic FC holds the head-to-head tiebreaker after winning in Colorado Springs earlier this season, which is the other subplot, meaning the impetus to win could swing toward the Switchbacks with Sacramento potentially taking aim at a top-two finish.

Western Conference

1. New Mexico United
Record: 18-10-5, 59pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 1st (59.9 points)
Max Points Available: 62pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. MEM (10/26)
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Outlook: New Mexico is locked into the No. 1 seed, but it has a big role to play in how the rest of the top four seeds shake out this weekend hosting Memphis 901 FC. If New Mexico wins or draws against Memphis, it locks 901 FC into the No. 5 seed as Memphis doesn’t hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over either Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC or Sacramento Republic FC. A win for Memphis, however, could push 901 FC as high as the No. 2 seed pending results elsewhere.
2. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 13-9-11, 50pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 2nd (51.2 points)
Max Points Available: 53pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at NC (10/26)
+
Outlook: The Lights missed out on the chance to clinch a top-two finish as their 11-game home undefeated streak came to an end against Oakland Roots, but thanks to results elsewhere, they’re set to host a playoff game and would still claim the No. 2 seed with a win against North Carolina FC. The Lights would also clinch a top-four position with a draw in North Carolina, given only one of Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC or Sacramento Republic FC would be able to pass them due to their head-to-head matchup, and if the Lights fall and Sacramento Republic FC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC play to a draw, Las Vegas’ points-per-game mark of 1.59ppg would hold it inside the top four.

Las Vegas Lights FC Clinches a Top-Two Finish if:

1. Las Vegas Lights FC wins vs. North Carolina FC, ends on 53pts

2. Las Vegas Lights FC draws vs. North Carolina FC, ends on 51pts
- AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory against New Mexico United, ends on 49pts
- AND Sacramento Republic FC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC play to a draw, each end on 50pts

Las Vegas Lights FC Clinches a Top-Four Finish if:

1. Las Vegas Lights FC draws at North Carolina FC, ends on 51pts
- AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory at New Mexico United, ends on 49pts
- OR Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC fails to take victory at Sacramento Republic FC, ends on 50pts
- OR Sacramento Republic FC fails to take victory vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, ends on 50pts

2. Las Vegas Lights FC loses vs. Oakland Roots SC, remains on 50pts
- AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory at Phoenix Rising FC, ends on 49pts
- OR Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC wins at Sacramento Republic FC, Republic FC ends on 49pts
- OR Sacramento Republic FC wins vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, Switchbacks end on 49pts
- OR Sacramento Republic FC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC play to a draw, each end on 50pts

Under PPG vs. in-conference opposition, final order of three-way tie would be:

1. Colorado Springs – 1.59ppg / 14 wins
2. Las Vegas – 1.59ppg / 13 wins
3. Sacramento – 1.55ppg
3. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 13-10-10, 49pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 3rd (50.9 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. COS (10/26)
+
Outlook: Republic FC missed out on the chance to move back into second place with its defeat in El Paso, and now needs a win against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC to be certain of a top-four finish as a draw or a loss could drop it into fifth place to close the regular season in the case of a three-way tie alongside Colorado Springs and Las Vegas Lights FC, with Republic FC’s points-per-game mark set to finish third out of the trio in that scenario. At the same time, a win could move Republic FC into the No. 2 seed should Las Vegas come up short in its east-coast trip to North Carolina FC.

Sacramento Republic FC Clinches a Top-Two finish if:

1. Sacramento Republic FC wins vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, ends on 52pts
- AND Las Vegas Lights FC fails to take victory at North Carolina FC, ends on 51pts

Sacramento Republic FC Clinches Top-Four finish if:

1. Sacramento Republic FC wins vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, ends on 52pts

2. Sacramento Republic FC draws vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, ends on 50pts; Colorado Springsends on 50pts
- AND Las Vegas Lights FC earns result at North Carolina FC, ends on 53/51pts
- AND Any result for Memphis 901 FC at New Mexico United, Memphis ends on 51/49/48pts
- Sacramento holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1) vs. Colorado Springs

3. Sacramento Republic FC loses vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, ends on 49pts
- AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory at New Mexico United, ends on 49pts
- Sacramento holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1) over Memphis
4. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 14-11-7, 49pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 4th (50.5 points)
Max Points Available: 52ts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at SAC (10/26)
+
Outlook: The Switchbacks had the best weekend of any team in the top four in the Western Conference with their fourth road win of the season, which put the side in with a chance of a top-two finish as it faces Sacramento Republic FC to close the season. A victory for Colorado Springs and dropped points by Las Vegas Lights FC at North Carolina FC would push the Switchbacks into second, while they’d also have a chance at a top-four finish if they end in a draw, pending the results of Las Vegas and Memphis 901 FC at New Mexico United. A defeat might not be disastrous, either, with the Switchbacks holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Memphis, meaning 901 FC would need to beat New Mexico to jump past Colorado Springs in the final standings.

Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC Clinches a Top-Two finish if:

1. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC wins vs. Sacramento Republic FC, ends on 52pts
- AND Las Vegas Lights FC fails to take victory at North Carolina FC, ends on 51pts

Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC Clinches a Top-Four finish if:

1. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC wins at Sacramento Republic FC, ends on 52pts

2. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC draws at Sacramento Republic FC, ends on 50pts
- AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory at New Mexico United, ends on 49pts

3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC loses at Sacramento Republic FC, ends on 49pts
- AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory at New Mexico United, ends on 49pts
- Colorado Springs holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1) against Memphis
5. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 13-11-9, 48pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 5th (49.9 points)
Max Points Available: 51pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at NM (10/26)
+
Outlook: Memphis gave itself a chance at a home playoff game to open the playoffs with its victory against Phoenix Rising FC. 901 FC could even move into the top-two in the standings should both Las Vegas Lights FC fail to take victory at North Carolina FC and Sacramento Republic FC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC play to a draw on Saturday night. Memphis holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Las Vegas (1-0-1) but would come out on the short end of a head-to-head against either Republic FC or the Switchbacks, which means a win is their only path to opening the season at AutoZone Park.

Memphis 901 FC clinches a Top-Two Finish if:

Memphis 901 FC takes victory at New Mexico United, ends on 51pts
- Las Vegas Lights FC fail to take victory at North Carolina FC, ends on 51pts; Memphis holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
- AND Sacramento Republic FC and Colorado Springs play to a draw, each side ends on 50pts

Memphis 901 FC clinches a Top-Four Finish if:

Memphis 901 FC takes victory at New Mexico United, ends on 51pts
- AND Las Vegas Lights FC fail to take victory at North Carolina FC, ends on 51pts; Memphis holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
- OR Sacramento Republic FC fails to take victory vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, ends on 50pts
- OR Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC fails to take victory at Sacramento Republic FC, ends on 50pts
6. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 13-15-5, 44pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 6th (45.1 points)
Max Points Available: 47pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. BHM (10/26)
+
Outlook: Oakland delivered one of its best all-around performances of the seasons when it mattered most, earning a 3-2 victory against Las Vegas Lights FC that not only secured its place in the postseason, but closed the door on San Antonio’s chances of getting in. Roots end the season against a Birmingham Legion FC side that while mathematically alive basically isn’t, giving it a chance to solidify its place as the No. 6 seed.
7. Orange County SC
Record: 12-14-7, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 7th (43.8 points)
Max Points Available: 46pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. HFD (10/26)
+
Outlook: Orange County earned its playoff spot on Saturday night thanks to its scoreless draw with New Mexico United alongside San Antonio FC’s draw with Louisville City FC. The 2021 title winners can’t get into the top four from here, but they could have a decisive role to play in the Eastern Conference playoff race as they host a Hartford Athletic side that would clinch a playoff berth if its wins each of its final two games this week.
8. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 11-13-9, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 8th (42.9 points)
Max Points Available: 45pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at LOU (10/26)
+
Outlook: PPhoenix can send a gift of gratitude to Oakland Roots SC for securing its berth in the postseason, with Roots’ victory leaving Rising out of reach of San Antonio FC with a three-point margin between the clubs due to Phoenix holding the head-to-head goal differential tiebreaker over San Antonio (1-1-0, +3GD). Rising heads to Louisville this weekend to close the season with sixth the highest it could finish with a victory should both Oakland and Orange County SC drop points in their finales.

Mathematically Eliminated: San Antonio FC, FC Tulsa, Monterey Bay F.C., El Paso Locomotive FC

Eastern Conference

1. Louisville City FC
Record: 23-6-4, 73pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 1st (74.7 points)
Max Points Available: 76pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. PHX (10/26)
+
Outlook: Louisville City can only equal the single-season wins record after its draw with San Antonio FC on Saturday that ended up eliminating the 2022 title winners from postseason contention, and that’s all it really has left to play for with the No. 1 seed and single-season home wins and goals marks already wrapped up.
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 17-6-10, 61pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 2nd (62.9 points)
Max Points Available: 64pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. LDN (10/26)
+
Outlook: The Battery remain locked in the No. 2 spot, but they do have a potential role to play in which teams get into the playoffs through their contest with Loudoun United FC. The visitors are going to need a win plus a lot of help – see Loudoun’s section below – to get what they need to get above the playoff line, but the Battery would eliminate those hopes with a win or a draw to close their home slate.
3. Detroit City FC
Record: 14-8-11, 53pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 3rd (54.3 points)
Max Points Available: 56pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ SA (10/26)
+
Outlook: Detroit City earned a top-four finish with its win against Miami FC and Rhode Island FC’s draw against the Charleston Battery, which means only Indy Eleven can usurp Le Rouge from third position onthe final day of the season. With Detroit holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indy (1-0-1) in their regular season series, the side would need only a draw against San Antonio FC to secure the No. 3 seed in the East.
4. Indy Eleven
Record: 14-10-9, 51pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 4th (51.8 points)
Max Points Available: 54pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ TBR (10/26)
+
Outlook: Indy was one of the other beneficiaries from the Tampa Bay Rowdies’ draw against Hartford Athletic on Wednesday night as the result locked the side into a top-four finish ahead of the final game of the regular season due to holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Rhode Island FC, the only side that can now match it on 51 points. The Boys in Blue have a chance to earn third place, but would need to take victory against the Rowdies on Saturday night and hope Detroit City FC loses to San Antonio FC in its finale, with Le Rouge holding the regular season head-to-head over Indy (1-0-1).
5. Rhode Island FC
Record: 11-7-15, 48pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish:5th (49.6 points)
Max Points Available: 51pts

Magic Number: 1

Up Next: vs. MIA (10/26)
+
Outlook: Rhode Island is officially in the postseason with Hartford Athletic’s draw against the Tampa Bay Rowdies on Wednesday night moving RIFC clear of its New England rival with a game to play. RIFC can’t go any higher than the No. 5 seed, but will still want to get a win on Saturday night at home to Miami FC to ensure it remains in that slot ahead of Tampa Bay, which would jump past Rhode Island if its defeats Indy and Rhode Island fails to take victory in its home finale. If Rhode Island loses, meanwhile, it runs the risk of dropping to the No. 7 seed should both Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and North Carolina FC take victory, with both holding tiebreakers – Pittsburgh via PPG vs. in-conference opposition, North Carolina via total wins – over Rhode Island should a three-way tie arise.

Under PPG vs. in-conference opposition, final order of three- or four-way tie on 48pts would be:
1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC – 1.5ppg
2. North Carolina FC – 1.27ppg / 13 wins
3. Rhode Island FC – 1.27ppg / 11 wins
4. Tampa Bay Rowdies – 1.18ppg
6. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 13-12-8, 47pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 6th (47.9 points)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. IND (10/26)
+
Outlook: The Rowdies are officially into the postseason thanks to their 2-2 draw with Hartford Athletic, with Tampa Bay moving clear on the head-to-head tiebreaker of Hartford thanks to its win at Trinity Health Stadium earlier this season. The Rowdies could finish as high as fifth if they take victory andRhode Island fails to beat Miami FC at home, but Tampa Bay could also be under threat if they draw or lose against Indy Eleven on Saturday. The Rowdies hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Hounds, but North Carolina holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Tampa Bay, meaning a three- or four-way tie on 48pts – which could also involve Rhode Island FC should it lose to Miami – would put the Rowdies at the bottom of the pack with a 1.18ppg mark against in-conference opposition and in as the No. 8 seed.

Under PPG vs. in-conference opposition, final order of three- or four-way tie on 48pts would be:
1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC – 1.5ppg
2. North Carolina FC – 1.27ppg / 13 wins
3. Rhode Island FC – 1.27ppg / 11 wins
4. Tampa Bay Rowdies – 1.18ppg
7. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 11-10-12, 45pts

Playoffs Odds: 72%

Projected Finish: 8th (46.1 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. ELP (10/26)
+
Outlook: The Hounds’ victory against Loudoun United FC put them on the verge of a seventh consecutive postseason berth. A win on Saturday against El Paso Locomotive FC would assure the side of a postseason berth after Hartford Athletic’s draw on Wednesday night, and the Hounds could finish as high as fifth should it come via a head-to-head tiebreaker or via its points-per-game vs. in-conference opposition mark of 1.5ppg, which sits as the most among the four teams that could end the season on 48 points, ahead of Rhode Island, Tampa Bay and North Carolina FC under that scenario. A draw or a loss, however, would leave the Hounds needing help from elsewhere to secure their place.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC Clinches a Playoffs berth if:

1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC wins vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 48pts

2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC draws vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 46pts
- AND North Carolina FC FC fails to take victory vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, ends on 46pts; Pittsburgh holds tiebreaker via PPG vs. in-conference opposition
- OR Hartford Athletic fails to take victory at Orange County SC, ends on 45pts

3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 45pts
- AND North Carolina FC loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, ends on 45pts; Pittsburgh holds tiebreaker via PPG vs. in-conference opposition
- OR Hartford Athletic fails to take victory vs. Orange County SC, ends on 45pts; Pittsburgh holds tiebreaker via PPG vs. in-conference opposition

Under PPG vs. in-conference opposition, final order of three-, four- or five-way tie on 45pts would be:
1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC – 33pts/22 games = 1.5ppg
2. Loudoun United FC – 30pts/22 games = 1.36ppg
3. North Carolina FC – 28pts/22 games = 1.27ppg
4. Hartford Athletic – 27pts/22 games = 1.23ppg
5. Birmingham Legion FC – 21pts/22 games = 0.95ppg
8. North Carolina FC
Record: 12-12-9, 45pts

Playoffs Odds: 71%

Projected Finish: 7th (46.3 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: 3

Up Next: vs. LV (10/26)
+
Outlook: North Carolina received a major boost from Tampa Bay’s draw against Hartford Athletic, moving the side into a win-and-you’re in scenario as it hosts Las Vegas Lights FC on Saturday night. Should NCFC draw, however, it runs the risk of being overtaken by Hartford Athletic, which sits a point back as it heads to face Orange County SC, and a defeat would also offer the threat of Loudoun United FC overtaking it on PPG vs. in-conference opposition after the sides ended the season with a win apiece and level on goal differential in their head-to-head meetings.

North Carolina FC Clinches a Playoffs berth if:

1. North Carolina FC wins vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, ends on 48pts
2. North Carolina FC draws vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, ends on 46pts
- AND Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 45pts
- OR Hartford Athletic fails to take victory at Orange County SC, ends on 45pts

3. North Carolina loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, ends on 45pts
- AND Hartford Athletic fails to take victory at Orange County SC, ends on 45pts; North Carolina holds tiebreaker PPG vs. in -conference opposition
- AND Loudoun United FC fails to take victory at Charleston Battery, ends on 43pts

Under PPG vs. in-conference opposition, final order of three-, four- or five-way tie on 45pts would be
1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC – 33pts/22 games = 1.5ppg
2. Loudoun United FC – 30pts/22 games = 1.36ppg
3. North Carolina FC – 28pts/22 games = 1.27ppg
4. Hartford Athletic – 27pts/22 games = 1.23ppg
5. Birmingham Legion FC – 21pts/22 games = 0.95ppg
9. Hartford Athletic
Record: 12-13-8, 44pts

Playoffs Odds: 49%

Projected Finish: 9th (44.6 points)
Max Points Available: 47pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ OC (10/26)
+
Outlook: Hartford’s draw against Tampa Bay means the side is no longer in control of its path to the playoffs. Essentially, it will need either Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC or North Carolina FC to drop points in their final home games to create a chance for Hartford to win in its finale on the West Coast against Orange County SC to jump past one or both sides. The good news for Athletic? Barring lightning delays in Pittsburgh or North Carolina, they’ll know whether they have a chance or not. No matter what, however, it’s going to be win or in as the tiebreakers don’t go Hartford’s way if it comes down to PPG vs. in-conference opposition, where Hartford’s 1.23ppg mark ranks fourth among the teams that could potentially end on 45 points.

Hartford Athletic Clinches a Playoffs berth if:

1. Hartford Athletic wins vs. Orange County SC, ends on 47pts
- AND Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC fails to take victory vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 46pts
- OR North Carolina FC fails to take victory vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, ends on 46pts

Under PPG vs. in-conference opposition, final order of three-, four- or five-way tie on 45pts would be:
1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC – 33pts/22 games = 1.5ppg
2. Loudoun United FC – 30pts/22 games = 1.36ppg
3. North Carolina FC – 28pts/22 games = 1.27ppg
4. Hartford Athletic – 27pts/22 games = 1.23ppg
5. Birmingham Legion FC – 21pts/22 games = 0.95ppg
10. Loudoun United FC
Record: 11-13-9, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: 24%

Projected Finish: 10th (42.9 points)
Max Points Available: 45pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ CHS (10/26)
+
Outlook: Loudoun United FC saw the first leg of its scenario to reach the playoffs come through on Wednesday night as Hartford Athletic drew against the Tampa Bay Rowdies. That means there is the potential for Loudoun to get in with a win against the Charleston Battery should North Carolina FC lose at home to Las Vegas Lights FC and Hartford Athletic fail to take victory against Orange County SC. Should Hartford lose to Orange County, and it end up a straight head-to-head with North Carolina FC, Loudoun would earn the tiebreaker with a 1.36ppg, ahead of both North Carolina’s 1.27ppg after the teams split their regular season series and ended even on goal differential. If Hartford wins, it’s still United’s spot with Hartford’s in-conference points-per-game mark sitting at 1.23ppg.

Loudoun United FC Clinches a Playoff berth if:

1. Loudoun United FC wins vs. Charleston Battery, ends on 45pts
- AND North Carolina FC loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, ends on 45pts; Loudoun holds tiebreaker on PPG vs. in-conference opposition
- AND Hartford Athletic fails to take victory at Orange County SC, ends on 45pts; Loudoun holdstiebreaker on PPG vs. in-conference opposition

Under PPG vs. in-conference opposition, final order of three-, four- or five-way tie on 45pts would be:

1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC – 33pts/22 games = 1.5ppg
2. Loudoun United FC – 30pts/22 games = 1.36ppg
3. North Carolina FC – 28pts/22 games = 1.27ppg
4. Hartford Athletic – 27pts/22 games = 1.23ppg
5. Birmingham Legion FC – 21pts/22 games = 0.95ppg
11. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 12-15-6, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: <1%

Projected Finish: 11th (42.9 points)
Max Points Available: 45pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ OAK (10/26)
+
Outlook: As you might have guessed from Legion’s message on social media last night, the math just ain’t mathin’ for them to get into the playoffs. Birmingham would be looking for the same scenario as Loudoun in terms of a win and results elsewhere ending up in a five-way tie on 45 points for the final two playoff berths, but Legion’s in-conference points-per-game mark of 0.95ppg would put it last in the collective, giving it no path to the postseason from here.

Under PPG vs. in-conference opposition, final order of three-, four- or five-way tie on 45pts would be:

1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC – 33pts/22 games = 1.5ppg
2. Loudoun United FC – 30pts/22 games = 1.36ppg
3. North Carolina FC – 28pts/22 games = 1.27ppg
4. Hartford Athletic – 27pts/22 games = 1.23ppg
5. Birmingham Legion FC – 21pts/22 games = 0.95ppg

Mathematically Eliminated: Miami FC

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Tag(s): Features  San Antonio FC  CO Spring Switchbacks  Orange County SC  Phoenix Rising FC  Sacramento Republic FC  FC Tulsa  Charleston Battery  Louisville City FC  Pittsburgh Riverhounds  Tampa Bay Rowdies  Las Vegas Lights FC  Birmingham Legion FC  North Carolina FC  Indy Eleven  Memphis 901 FC  El Paso Locomotive FC  New Mexico United  Loudoun United FC  Hartford Athletic  San Diego Loyal SC  Miami FC  Oakland Roots SC  Race to the Playoffs  Detroit City FC  Monterey Bay F.C.  Rhode Island FC 

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