1. Louisville City FC
Record: 23-6-4, 73pts
Playoffs Odds: 100%
Projected Finish: 1st (74.7 points)
Max Points Available: 76pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. PHX (10/26)
Outlook: Louisville City can only equal the single-season wins record after its draw with San Antonio FC on Saturday that ended up eliminating the 2022 title winners from postseason contention, and that’s all it really has left to play for with the No. 1 seed and single-season home wins and goals marks already wrapped up.
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 17-6-10, 61pts
Playoffs Odds: 100%
Projected Finish: 2nd (62.9 points)
Max Points Available: 64pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. LDN (10/26)
Outlook: The Battery remain locked in the No. 2 spot, but they do have a potential role to play in which teams get into the playoffs through their contest with Loudoun United FC. The visitors are going to need a win plus a lot of help – see Loudoun’s section below – to get what they need to get above the playoff line, but the Battery would eliminate those hopes with a win or a draw to close their home slate.
3. Detroit City FC
Record: 14-8-11, 53pts
Playoffs Odds: 100%
Projected Finish: 3rd (54.3 points)
Max Points Available: 56pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: @ SA (10/26)
Outlook: Detroit City earned a top-four finish with its win against Miami FC and Rhode Island FC’s draw against the Charleston Battery, which means only Indy Eleven can usurp Le Rouge from third position onthe final day of the season. With Detroit holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indy (1-0-1) in their regular season series, the side would need only a draw against San Antonio FC to secure the No. 3 seed in the East.
4. Indy Eleven
Record: 14-10-9, 51pts
Playoffs Odds: 100%
Projected Finish: 4th (51.8 points)
Max Points Available: 54pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: @ TBR (10/26)
Outlook: Indy was one of the other beneficiaries from the Tampa Bay Rowdies’ draw against Hartford Athletic on Wednesday night as the result locked the side into a top-four finish ahead of the final game of the regular season due to holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Rhode Island FC, the only side that can now match it on 51 points. The Boys in Blue have a chance to earn third place, but would need to take victory against the Rowdies on Saturday night and hope Detroit City FC loses to San Antonio FC in its finale, with Le Rouge holding the regular season head-to-head over Indy (1-0-1).
5. Rhode Island FC
Record: 11-7-15, 48pts
Playoffs Odds: >99%
Projected Finish:5th (49.6 points)
Max Points Available: 51pts
Magic Number: 1
Up Next: vs. MIA (10/26)
Outlook: Rhode Island is officially in the postseason with Hartford Athletic’s draw against the Tampa Bay Rowdies on Wednesday night moving RIFC clear of its New England rival with a game to play. RIFC can’t go any higher than the No. 5 seed, but will still want to get a win on Saturday night at home to Miami FC to ensure it remains in that slot ahead of Tampa Bay, which would jump past Rhode Island if its defeats Indy and Rhode Island fails to take victory in its home finale. If Rhode Island loses, meanwhile, it runs the risk of dropping to the No. 7 seed should both Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and North Carolina FC take victory, with both holding tiebreakers – Pittsburgh via PPG vs. in-conference opposition, North Carolina via total wins – over Rhode Island should a three-way tie arise.
Under PPG vs. in-conference opposition, final order of three- or four-way tie on 48pts would be:
1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC – 1.5ppg
2. North Carolina FC – 1.27ppg / 13 wins
3. Rhode Island FC – 1.27ppg / 11 wins
4. Tampa Bay Rowdies – 1.18ppg
6. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 13-12-8, 47pts
Playoffs Odds: 100%
Projected Finish: 6th (47.9 points)
Max Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. IND (10/26)
Outlook: The Rowdies are officially into the postseason thanks to their 2-2 draw with Hartford Athletic, with Tampa Bay moving clear on the head-to-head tiebreaker of Hartford thanks to its win at Trinity Health Stadium earlier this season. The Rowdies could finish as high as fifth if they take victory andRhode Island fails to beat Miami FC at home, but Tampa Bay could also be under threat if they draw or lose against Indy Eleven on Saturday. The Rowdies hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Hounds, but North Carolina holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Tampa Bay, meaning a three- or four-way tie on 48pts – which could also involve Rhode Island FC should it lose to Miami – would put the Rowdies at the bottom of the pack with a 1.18ppg mark against in-conference opposition and in as the No. 8 seed.
Under PPG vs. in-conference opposition, final order of three- or four-way tie on 48pts would be:
1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC – 1.5ppg
2. North Carolina FC – 1.27ppg / 13 wins
3. Rhode Island FC – 1.27ppg / 11 wins
4. Tampa Bay Rowdies – 1.18ppg
7. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 11-10-12, 45pts
Playoffs Odds: 72%
Projected Finish: 8th (46.1 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. ELP (10/26)
Outlook: The Hounds’ victory against Loudoun United FC put them on the verge of a seventh consecutive postseason berth. A win on Saturday against El Paso Locomotive FC would assure the side of a postseason berth after Hartford Athletic’s draw on Wednesday night, and the Hounds could finish as high as fifth should it come via a head-to-head tiebreaker or via its points-per-game vs. in-conference opposition mark of 1.5ppg, which sits as the most among the four teams that could end the season on 48 points, ahead of Rhode Island, Tampa Bay and North Carolina FC under that scenario. A draw or a loss, however, would leave the Hounds needing help from elsewhere to secure their place.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC Clinches a Playoffs berth if:
1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC wins vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 48pts
2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC draws vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 46pts
- AND North Carolina FC FC fails to take victory vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, ends on 46pts; Pittsburgh holds tiebreaker via PPG vs. in-conference opposition
- OR Hartford Athletic fails to take victory at Orange County SC, ends on 45pts
3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 45pts
- AND North Carolina FC loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, ends on 45pts; Pittsburgh holds tiebreaker via PPG vs. in-conference opposition
- OR Hartford Athletic fails to take victory vs. Orange County SC, ends on 45pts; Pittsburgh holds tiebreaker via PPG vs. in-conference opposition
Under PPG vs. in-conference opposition, final order of three-, four- or five-way tie on 45pts would be:
1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC – 33pts/22 games = 1.5ppg
2. Loudoun United FC – 30pts/22 games = 1.36ppg
3. North Carolina FC – 28pts/22 games = 1.27ppg
4. Hartford Athletic – 27pts/22 games = 1.23ppg
5. Birmingham Legion FC – 21pts/22 games = 0.95ppg
8. North Carolina FC
Record: 12-12-9, 45pts
Playoffs Odds: 71%
Projected Finish: 7th (46.3 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts
Magic Number: 3
Up Next: vs. LV (10/26)
Outlook: North Carolina received a major boost from Tampa Bay’s draw against Hartford Athletic, moving the side into a win-and-you’re in scenario as it hosts Las Vegas Lights FC on Saturday night. Should NCFC draw, however, it runs the risk of being overtaken by Hartford Athletic, which sits a point back as it heads to face Orange County SC, and a defeat would also offer the threat of Loudoun United FC overtaking it on PPG vs. in-conference opposition after the sides ended the season with a win apiece and level on goal differential in their head-to-head meetings.
North Carolina FC Clinches a Playoffs berth if:
1. North Carolina FC wins vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, ends on 48pts
2. North Carolina FC draws vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, ends on 46pts
- AND Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 45pts
- OR Hartford Athletic fails to take victory at Orange County SC, ends on 45pts
3. North Carolina loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, ends on 45pts
- AND Hartford Athletic fails to take victory at Orange County SC, ends on 45pts; North Carolina holds tiebreaker PPG vs. in
-conference opposition
- AND Loudoun United FC fails to take victory at Charleston Battery, ends on 43pts
Under PPG vs. in-conference opposition, final order of three-, four- or five-way tie on 45pts would be
1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC – 33pts/22 games = 1.5ppg
2. Loudoun United FC – 30pts/22 games = 1.36ppg
3. North Carolina FC – 28pts/22 games = 1.27ppg
4. Hartford Athletic – 27pts/22 games = 1.23ppg
5. Birmingham Legion FC – 21pts/22 games = 0.95ppg
9. Hartford Athletic
Record: 12-13-8, 44pts
Playoffs Odds: 49%
Projected Finish: 9th (44.6 points)
Max Points Available: 47pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: @ OC (10/26)
Outlook: Hartford’s draw against Tampa Bay means the side is no longer in control of its path to the playoffs. Essentially, it will need either Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC or North Carolina FC to drop points in their final home games to create a chance for Hartford to win in its finale on the West Coast against Orange County SC to jump past one or both sides. The good news for Athletic? Barring lightning delays in Pittsburgh or North Carolina, they’ll know whether they have a chance or not. No matter what, however, it’s going to be win or in as the tiebreakers don’t go Hartford’s way if it comes down to PPG vs. in-conference opposition, where Hartford’s 1.23ppg mark ranks fourth among the teams that could potentially end on 45 points.
Hartford Athletic Clinches a Playoffs berth if:
1. Hartford Athletic wins vs. Orange County SC, ends on 47pts
- AND Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC fails to take victory vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 46pts
- OR North Carolina FC fails to take victory vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, ends on 46pts
Under PPG vs. in-conference opposition, final order of three-, four- or five-way tie on 45pts would be:
1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC – 33pts/22 games = 1.5ppg
2. Loudoun United FC – 30pts/22 games = 1.36ppg
3. North Carolina FC – 28pts/22 games = 1.27ppg
4. Hartford Athletic – 27pts/22 games = 1.23ppg
5. Birmingham Legion FC – 21pts/22 games = 0.95ppg
10. Loudoun United FC
Record: 11-13-9, 42pts
Playoffs Odds: 24%
Projected Finish: 10th (42.9 points)
Max Points Available: 45pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: @ CHS (10/26)
Outlook: Loudoun United FC saw the first leg of its scenario to reach the playoffs come through on Wednesday night as Hartford Athletic drew against the Tampa Bay Rowdies. That means there is the potential for Loudoun to get in with a win against the Charleston Battery should North Carolina FC lose at home to Las Vegas Lights FC and Hartford Athletic fail to take victory against Orange County SC. Should Hartford lose to Orange County, and it end up a straight head-to-head with North Carolina FC, Loudoun would earn the tiebreaker with a 1.36ppg, ahead of both North Carolina’s 1.27ppg after the teams split their regular season series and ended even on goal differential. If Hartford wins, it’s still United’s spot with Hartford’s in-conference points-per-game mark sitting at 1.23ppg.
Loudoun United FC Clinches a Playoff berth if:
1. Loudoun United FC wins vs. Charleston Battery, ends on 45pts
- AND North Carolina FC loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, ends on 45pts; Loudoun holds tiebreaker on PPG vs. in-conference opposition
- AND Hartford Athletic fails to take victory at Orange County SC, ends on 45pts; Loudoun holdstiebreaker on PPG vs. in-conference opposition
Under PPG vs. in-conference opposition, final order of three-, four- or five-way tie on 45pts would be:
1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC – 33pts/22 games = 1.5ppg
2. Loudoun United FC – 30pts/22 games = 1.36ppg
3. North Carolina FC – 28pts/22 games = 1.27ppg
4. Hartford Athletic – 27pts/22 games = 1.23ppg
5. Birmingham Legion FC – 21pts/22 games = 0.95ppg
11. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 12-15-6, 42pts
Playoffs Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 11th (42.9 points)
Max Points Available: 45pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: @ OAK (10/26)
Outlook: As you might have guessed from Legion’s message on social media last night, the math just ain’t mathin’ for them to get into the playoffs. Birmingham would be looking for the same scenario as Loudoun in terms of a win and results elsewhere ending up in a five-way tie on 45 points for the final two playoff berths, but Legion’s in-conference points-per-game mark of 0.95ppg would put it last in the collective, giving it no path to the postseason from here.
Under PPG vs. in-conference opposition, final order of three-, four- or five-way tie on 45pts would be:
1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC – 33pts/22 games = 1.5ppg
2. Loudoun United FC – 30pts/22 games = 1.36ppg
3. North Carolina FC – 28pts/22 games = 1.27ppg
4. Hartford Athletic – 27pts/22 games = 1.23ppg
5. Birmingham Legion FC – 21pts/22 games = 0.95ppg