1. Louisville City FC
Record: 23-6-3, 72pts
Playoffs Odds: 100%
Projected Finish: 1st (76.2 points)
Max Points Available: 78pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: @ SA (10/19)
Outlook: Louisville City will continue its pursuit of history as it seeks to equal the single-season record for regular season wins on Saturday night, but the Players’ Shield winner will have the three teams who are yet to clinch their postseason berths above the playoff line in the Western Conference rooting for them as they visit San Antonio. A LouCity victory in the rematch of the 2022 USL Championship Final could bring San Antonio’s season to an end if other results go the wrong way for SAFC this week.
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 17-6-9, 60pts
Playoffs Odds: 100%
Projected Finish: 2nd (64.3 points)
Max Points Available: 66pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. RI (10/19)
Outlook: Charleston’s loss in Pittsburgh didn’t change anything for the defending Eastern Conference title holders, given they’re locked into the No. 2 seed. With two home games to close out the campaign starting with Rhode Island FC on Saturday, though, we’ll see if the side gives its home support something to cheer for as it continues to prep for the postseason.
3. Detroit City FC
Record: 13-8-11, 50pts
Playoffs Odds: 100%
Projected Finish: 3rd (52.2 points)
Max Points Available: 56pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. MIA (10/19)
Outlook: With no-one between third and sixth taking victory over the weekend, Detroit City remained in good position and could seal a top-four finish this weekend if it picks up victory at home to Miami FC should results elsewhere go Le Rouge’s way.
Detroit City FC Clinches a Top-Four Finish if:
1. Detroit City FC wins vs. Miami FC, moves to 53pts; moves clear of Rhode Island FC on maximum of 53pts via head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
- AND Indy Eleven fails to take victory vs. Birmingham Legion FC, maximum drops to 52pts
- OR Tampa Bay Rowdies fail to take victory vs. North Carolina FC, maximum drops to 53pts; Detroit holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
2. Detroit City FC draws vs. Miami FC, moves to 51pts
- AND Indy Eleven loses vs. Birmingham Legion FC, maximum drops to 51pts; Detroit holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
- AND Rhode Island FC fails to take victory at Charleston Battery, maximum drops to 51pts; Detroit holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
4. Indy Eleven
Record: 13-10-9, 48pts
Playoffs Odds: 88%
Projected Finish: 5th (50.2 points)
Max Points Available: 54pts
Magic Number: 1
Up Next: vs. BHM (10/19)
Outlook: Indy moved within a point of clinching a postseason berth with its draw against Detroit City FC, but it will be hoping to pick up all three points at home to Birmingham Legion on Saturday night to keep its drive for a top-four position on track. With a loss to Legion, Indy could still get in, but it would require a combination of results elsewhere to go in their favor with Legion’s maximum set to remain on 48pts with victory on the road.
Indy Eleven Clinches a Playoff Berth if:
1. Indy Eleven wins vs. Birmingham Legion FC, moves to 51pts
2. Indy Eleven draws vs. Birmingham Legion FC, moves to 49pts
3. Indy Eleven loses vs. Birmingham Legion FC, remains on 48pts
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and Loudoun United FC play to a draw, dropping each club’s maximum to 46pts
- AND North Carolina FC fails to take victory at Tampa Bay Rowdies, maximum drops to 46pts
- OR Hartford Athletic fails to take victory at FC Tulsa, maximum drops to 47pts
4. Indy Eleven loses vs. Birmingham Legion FC, remains on 48pts
- AND Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC loses at Loudoun United, maximum drops to 45pts
- AND North Carolina FC fails to take victory at Tampa Bay Rowdies, maximum drops to 46pts
- AND Hartford Athletic fails to take victory at FC Tulsa, maximum drops to 47pts
5. Indy Eleven loses vs. Birmingham Legion FC, remains on 48pts
- AND Loudoun United FC loses vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, maximum drops to 45pts
- AND North Carolina FC fails to take victory at Tampa Bay Rowdies, maximum drops to 46pts
- AND Hartford Athletic fails to take victory at FC Tulsa, maximum drops to 47pts
5. Rhode Island FC
Record: 11-7-14, 47pts
Playoffs Odds: 87%
Projected Finish:4th (50.7 points)
Max Points Available: 53pts
Magic Number: 2
Up Next: @ CHS (10/19)
Outlook: Rhode Island remains in control of its path to the playoffs and a win against the Charleston Battery would secure the first-year club’s berth. There are other routes available thanks to the logjam in the lower half of the standings should RIFC draw or lose at Patriots Point, but the visitors will be looking for all three points as it pursues a top-four finish
Rhode Island FC Clinches a Playoff Berth if:
1. Rhode Island FC wins at Charleston Battery, moves to 50pts
2. Rhode Island FC draws at Charleston Battery, moves to 48pts, and three of five additional scenarios
- Hartford Athletic fails to take victory at FC Tulsa, maximum drops to 47pts
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC fails to take victory at Loudoun United FC, maximum drops to 46pts
- Loudoun United FC fails to take victory vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, maximum drops to 46pts
- North Carolina FC fails to take victory at Tampa Bay Rowdies, maximum drops to 46pts
- Birmingham Legion FC fails to take victory at Indy Eleven, maximum drops to 46pts
3. Rhode Island FC loses at Charleston Battery, remains on 47pts, and three of four additional scenarios
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC fails to take victory at Loudoun United FC, maximum drops to 46pts
- Loudoun United FC fails to take victory vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, maximum drops to 46pts
- North Carolina FC fails to take victory at Tampa Bay Rowdies, maximum drops to 46pts
- Birmingham Legion FC fails to take victory at Indy Eleven, maximum drops to 46pts
6. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 13-11-7, 46pts
Playoffs Odds: 86%
Projected Finish: 6th (48.9 points)
Max Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: 3
Up Next: vs. NC (10/19)
Outlook: The Tampa Bay Rowdies have moved to a win and you’re in scenario this weekend against North Carolina FC, and still have a path to a top-four finish if they sweep victories in each of their final three games. There’s also a path to clinching a postseason berth for the Rowdies with a draw with the fact their matchup this weekend is against North Carolina – one of the teams they’d need to drop points in that scenario – playing into their hands.
Tampa Bay Rowdies Clinch a Playoff Berth if:
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies win vs. North Carolina FC, move to 49pts
2. Tampa Bay Rowdies draw vs. North Carolina FC, move to 47pts; North Carolina’s max drops to 46pts AND two of four additional scenarios
- Hartford Athletic loses at FC Tulsa, maximum drops to 46pts
- Loudoun United FC fails to take victory vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, maximum drops to 46pts
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC fails to take victory vs. Loudoun United FC, maximum drops to 46pts
- Birmingham Legion FC fails to take victory at Indy Eleven, maximum drops to 46pts
7. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 10-10-12, 42pts
Playoffs Odds: 66%
Projected Finish: 8th (44.6 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: @ LDN (10/19)
Outlook: The Hounds saw basically everything fall their way this weekend to get back above the playoff line with their win against Charleston. That sets up this Saturday’s six-pointer against Loudoun United, which also enters on 42 points with two games to play. The winner of this contest puts one foot in the playoffs and will be the game everyone else will be paying close attention to on Saturday evening.
10. Loudoun United FC
Record: 11-12-9, 42pts
Playoffs Odds: 49%
Projected Finish: 9th (44.4 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. PIT (10/19)
Outlook: The season is effectively on the line for Loudoun United on Saturday at home to Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC. A victory would keep United in control of its destiny going to the final game of the season, and potentially put it above the playoff line. A loss would leave Loudoun in a very tight spot and in need of a lot to go its way to get in. As such, it’s easily the biggest league game in club history.
8. North Carolina FC
Record: 11-12-9, 42pts
Playoffs Odds: 66%
Projected Finish: 7th (45.0 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: @ TBR (10/19)
Outlook: NNorth Carolina’s defeat at Hartford Athletic pulled it back into the pack battling for the final two positions in the playoffs, and it faces two tricky games to close the season against a Tampa Bay Rowdies side that while struggling for form knows it will be in with a win on Saturday, and a Las Vegas Lights side that is closing on second place in the West. NCFC will be looking for a win and keeping a close eye on the scoreboard like everyone else around the line in the East.
9. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 12-14-6, 42pts
Playoffs Odds: 36%
Projected Finish: 10th (44.3 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: @ IND (10/19)
Outlook: Legion is in a tight spot when it comes to continuing its playoff streak after Sunday’s loss to Las Vegas, and it’s going to need to turn its form around against Indy if it’s going to be above the playoff line going to the final game of the season. Birmingham has lost two in a row to the Boys in Blue – including a 1-0 loss at home in June – and has lost each of its last two visits to Michael A. Carroll Stadium as well.
11. Hartford Athletic
Record: 11-13-7, 40pts
Playoffs Odds: 34%
Projected Finish: 11th (42.0 points)
Max Points Available: 49pts
Magic Number: 9
Up Next: @ TUL (10/19)
Outlook: Yes, Hartford is in 11th place, but it’s got a Magic Number while the four teams above it do not. That’s because Athletic has a game in hand, and if it wins out, it gets into the playoffs. Adding another three points to last weekend’s win against North Carolina FC when the side visits Tulsa this Saturday night keeps things in Hartford’s control.