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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – October 8-13

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 10/10/24, 11:45AM EDT

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Crucial midweek games around playoff line set up potential for multiple clubs to clinch over weekend


North Carolina FC and Hartford Athletic will square off on Saturday night in the pivotal game around the playoff line in the Eastern Conference this weekend. | Photo courtesy Lewis Gettier / North Carolina FC

Welcome to the latest edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs presented by Terminix, where we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2024 USL Championship Playoffs in October.

The midweek set of games saw Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC earn its place in the postseason, and there could be as many as seven other teams that clinch a playoff berth this week as others such as Sacramento Republic FC vie for a chance to ensure a top-four finish in the Western Conference.

This season, we’re grateful to our friend John Morrissey at USL Tactics for providing the data for playoff projections. Now, here are some games to watch this weekend and an overview of where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Saturday, October 12
Detroit City FC
Indy Eleven
4:00 PM
Stadium IconKeyworth Stadium
Match Center
Tickets

Detroit City FC simply needs a win or a draw to clinch its playoff berth on Saturday night, while Indy can also book its postseason ticket, but this top-four clash is going to be key in the race for third place in the Eastern Conference and the chance to avoid Players’ Shield winner Louisville City FC on its home turf until a potential Eastern Conference Final. Le Rouge pulled out a dramatic late win in the regular season opener before Indy Eleven got revenge in the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup in May. The winner here gets the inside track to a top-three finish with two games to play.

Saturday, October 12
Hartford Athletic
North Carolina FC
7:30 PM
Stadium IconTrinity Health Stadium
Match Center
Tickets

In terms of the playoff race, this is the game that everything else in the Eastern Conference will pivot around this weekend. North Carolina FC moved into control of its playoff path on Wednesday night with its win against FC Tulsa, which moved the side into seventh place in the standings. While Hartford Athletic holds a game in hand on its rivals battling for the final two postseason spots, a defeat here would likely push the side to the brink of elimination, especially if Loudoun United FC or Birmingham Legion FC come through with a victory on Sunday evening. That’s high stakes for the hosts, who don’t want to see their season end early.

Saturday, October 12
Memphis 901 FC
Sacramento Republic FC
8:00 PM
Stadium IconAutoZone Park
Match Center
Tickets

Memphis 901 FC can book its place in the postseason with a draw against Sacramento Republic FC, but Republic FC dropping points on Wednesday night against Monterey Bay F.C. – and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC’s defeat – kept 901 FC’s prospects of a top-four finish very much alive. If the hosts pick up all three points here, it’s going to be a battle to the end as to which team takes which seed and gets homefield advantage for potentially two rounds.

Sunday, October 13
Rhode Island FC
Loudoun United FC
4:00 PM
Stadium IconBeirne Stadium
Match Center
Tickets

Rhode Island FC will clinch a playoff berth in its inaugural season with a victory against Loudoun United FC, but this game has bigger stakes for both clubs as RIFC looks to chase down a top-four finish while Loudoun tries to rebound from a midweek defeat that sent it below the playoff line. For United, seeing its rivals around the playoff line drop points on Saturday night will be the pregame buildup, but the visitors may need all three points to reestablish themselves in the race and regain control of their path ahead of another crucial clash against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC next weekend.

Western Conference

1. New Mexico United
Record: 18-10-3, 57pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 1st (60.5 points)
Max Points Available: 66pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at TUL (10/12)
+
Outlook: New Mexico still hasn’t technically clinched the No. 1 seed after its defeat against Phoenix Rising FC on Wednesday night. It gets its third shot at closing it out on Saturday night against FC Tulsa, where it could also do the teams above the playoff line in the West a favor as they look to clinch their postseason berths.
New Mexico United clinches No. 1 seed in West If:
1. New Mexico United wins vs. FC Tulsa, moves to 60pts

2. New Mexico United draws vs. FC Tulsa, moves to 58pts

3. New Mexico United loses vs. FC Tulsa, remains on 57pts
- AND Sacramento Republic FC fails to take victory at Memphis 901 FC, maximum drops to 55pts
2. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 13-9-9, 48pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 2nd (54.4 points)
Max Points Available: 57pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at MEM (10/12)
+
Outlook: In what’s been a recurring theme this season, Republic FC was unable to hold onto its lead against Monterey Bay F.C. late and missed out on the chance to solidify its place in second. That makes this Saturday’s visit to Memphis 901 FC that much more important, but Sacramento would clinch a home playoff game with a victory against Memphis.
Sacramento Republic FC Clinches Top-Four finish if:
1. Sacramento Republic FC wins vs. Memphis 901 FC, moves to 51pts;
- Memphis’ maximum available drops to 50pts
3. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 12-8-11, 47pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 3rd (51.3 points)
Max Points Available: 56pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at BHM (10/13)
+
Outlook: The Lights could hardly have had the midweek results in the Western Conference turn out better for their bid for a home game to kick off their first postseason trip. Las Vegas can’t quite get there this weekend thanks to Memphis 901 FC holding the head-to-head tiebreaker via the regular season series, but with a win at Birmingham Legion FC it would take another big step forward toward that goal.
4. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 13-11-7, 46pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 4th (51.1 points)
Max Points Available: 55ts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. SA (10/12)
+
Outlook: The Switchbacks continued to struggle on the road against Orange County on Wednesday night, but still clinched their postseason berth thanks to San Antonio FC dropping points earlier in the night. Now the Switchbacks host San Antonio on Saturday with a serious fight on their hands to earn a home playoff spot. If Colorado Springs picks up all three points, it can’t quite clinch a home playoff game, but it might be fatal for SAFC’s chances of being in the postseason.
5. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 12-11-8, 44pts

Playoffs Odds: 91%

Projected Finish: 5th (50.3 points)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: 1

Up Next: vs. SAC (10/12)
+
Outlook: Memphis is poised for its fourth consecutive trip to the postseason this weekend, a feat it will achieve with either a win or a draw against Sacramento Republic FC or should San Antonio FC fail to take victory against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC if 901 FC loses at home. The hosts will be pushing for all three points, however, as they need to make up a four-point gap to Republic FC in second place as 901 FC takes aim at a home game to start the playoffs.
Memphis 901 FC clinches a Playoffs Berth if:
1. Memphis 901 FC wins vs. Sacramento Republic FC, moves to 47pts

2. Memphis 901 FC draws vs. Sacramento Republic FC, moves to 45pts

3. Memphis 901 FC loses vs. Sacramento Republic FC, remains on 44pts
- AND San Antonio FC drops points at Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, maximum drops to 42pts
6. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 12-14-5, 41pts

Playoffs Odds: 84%

Projected Finish: 6th (45.3 points)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: 4

Up Next: vs. PHX (10/12)
+
Outlook: Roots moved into position to clinch a playoff spot this weekend thanks to results in midweek but would need San Antonio FC and FC Tulsa’s result to go their way if they win or draw against Phoenix Rising FC on Saturday.
Oakland Roots SC Clinches a Playoff Berth if:
1. Oakland Roots SC wins vs. Phoenix Rising FC, moves to 44pts
- AND San Antonio FC fails to take victory at Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, maximum drops to 42pts

2. Oakland Roots SC draws vs. Phoenix Rising FC, moves to 42pts
- AND San Antonio FC loses at Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, maximum drops to 41
- AND FC Tulsa fails to take victory vs. New Mexico United, maximum drops to 41
7. Orange County SC
Record: 11-14-6, 39pts

Playoffs Odds: 74%

Projected Finish: 8th (40.5 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: 6

Up Next: at ELP (10/16)
+
Outlook: Orange County is looking well set for the postseason with three games to play after Wednesday night’s victory against Colorado Springs. The 2021 title winners are off this weekend, meaning they can’t quite clinch tonight, but they should be in line next to earn that spot in the squad next Wednesday night when the side faces El Paso Locomotive FC.
8. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 10-12-9, 39pts

Playoffs Odds: 79%

Projected Finish: 7th (40.9 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: 6

Up Next: at OAK (10/12)
+
Outlook: Rising couldn’t have picked a better time to record its first victory this season after conceding the opening goal than against New Mexico United. The result puts Phoenix in position to clinch its postseason berth this weekend if it takes victory against Oakland Roots SC and sees other elements fall into place in the Western Conference standings.
Phoenix Rising FC Clinches a Playoff Berth if:
1. Phoenix Rising FC wins at Oakland Roots SC, moves to 42pts
- AND FC Tulsa fails to take victory vs. New Mexico United, maximum drops to 41pts
- AND San Antonio FC fails to take victory at Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, maximum drops to 42pts; Phoenix holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1, +3GD)
9. San Antonio FC
Record: 9-14-8, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 27%

Projected Finish: 10th (37.9 points)
Max Points Available: 44pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at COS (10/12)
+
Outlook: San Antonio’s season of ups and downs continued in El Paso on Wednesday night and this one might have proven another serious blow to the club’s playoff chances. Combined with Orange County SC and Phoenix Rising FC also taking victory, there’s a four-point gap between San Antonio and the last playoff spot with three games to go. It certainly feels like San Antonio must win in Colorado Springs, or else see its postseason chances start to fade.
10. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 8-14-10, 34pts

Playoffs Odds: 23%

Projected Finish: 11th (37.0 points)
Max Points Available: 40pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. COS (10/19)
+
Outlook: Monterey Bay pulled a point out of the fire against Sacramento Republic FC through Morey Doner, but the draw probably brought the club’s playoff chances to an end. MBFC can’t be mathematically eliminated this weekend as it prepares for the final two games of the season, but could be before it next sees action if both Orange County SC and Phoenix Rising FC have taken victories against El Paso Locomotive and Oakland Roots SC respectively in their upcoming games
11. FC Tulsa
Record: 8-13-10, 34pts

Playoffs Odds: 30%

Projected Finish:9th (38.1 points)
Max Points Available: 43pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. NM (10/12)
+
Outlook: Tulsa’s playoff odds continue to tumble after the side’s defeat against North Carolina FC on Wednesday night. Now Tulsa needs a victory at home to first-placed New Mexico United an ONEOK Field and some help from Oakland Roots SC this weekend to keep Phoenix from heading out in the distance with only three games to play.

Mathematically Eliminated: El Paso Locomotive FC

Eastern Conference

1. Louisville City FC
Record: 22-6-3, 69pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 1st (75.0 points)
Max Points Available: 78pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. TBR (10/12)
+
Outlook: LouCity claimed its first Players’ Shield with three games to play thanks to Jake Morris’ late equalizer against Indy Eleven. Louisville would set a league record for total wins and equal the record for most points in a season alongside Phoenix Rising FC in 2019 if it wins its last three outings, starting at home to Tampa Bay on Saturday night, so we’ll see how Head Coach Danny Cruz chooses to play it with homefield advantage in the postseason secured.
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 17-5-9, 60pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 2nd (66.2 points)
Max Points Available: 69pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at PIT (10/12)
+
Outlook: The Battery locked in a top-two finish in the Eastern Conference thanks to Rhode Island’s victory against Tampa Bay, even if it will have been disappointed to drop points at the death to Detroit City FC. With three games to play, it’s now up to Head Coach Ben Pirmann how he wants to see out the regular season with Louisville City out of reach in first. Given their last teams are all against teams with something at stake, starting on the road against playoff-chasing Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC this Saturday, it’s going to have an impact.
3. Detroit City FC
Record: 13-8-10, 49pts

Playoffs Odds: 95%

Projected Finish: 3rd (52.1 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number: 2

Up Next: vs. IND (10/12)
+
Outlook: Detroit City FC will clinch a playoff berth this weekend by virtue of Hartford Athletic playing host to North Carolina FC – regardless of the outcome of that contest, Le Rouge will be clear of one to seal its spot – but DCFC has the bigger picture to think about as it hosts fourth-place Indy Eleven. Take victory and the side could clinch a top-four finish next weekend, guaranteeing a home playoff game to kick off. A draw, meanwhile, would keep a two-point margin to Indy, but could let Rhode Island and Tampa Bay move closer.
Detroit City FC Clinches a Playoff Berth if:
1. Detroit City FC wins vs. Indy Eleven, moves to 52pts

2. Detroit City FC draws vs. Indy Eleven, moves to 50pts; Detroit moves clear of Loudoun United FC on maximum of 50pts via head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)

3. Detroit City FC loses vs. Indy Eleven, remains on 49pts
- AND Hartford Athletic fails to take victory vs. North Carolina FC, maximum drops to 47pts
- OR Loudoun United FC fails to take victory vs. Rhode Island FC, maximum drops to 48pts
- OR North Carolina FC fails to take victory vs. Hartford Athletic, maximum drops to 49pts; Detroit holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
- OR Birmingham Legion FC loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum drops to 48pts
4. Indy Eleven
Record: 13-10-8, 47pts

Playoffs Odds: 84%

Projected Finish: 5th (50.1 points)
Max Points Available: 56pts

Magic Number: 4

Up Next: at DET (10/12)
+
Outlook: Indy Eleven’s victory against Loudoun United FC on Tuesday night was massive for multiple reasons, one of which was earning the head-to-head tiebreaker over Loudoun in the season series. That leaves multiple paths open for Indy to clinch this weekend. A victory against Detroit City sends the Boys in Blue in due to their head-to-head tiebreaker over Loudoun and would also move the side into third place in the standings ahead of Le Rouge. A draw or a loss would require other results to go Indy’s way, but they could still be in by the end of the Sunday’s action.
Indy Eleven Clinches a Playoff Berth if:
1. Indy Eleven wins at Detroit City FC, moves to 50pts; Indy moves clear of Loudoun United FC on maximum of 50pts via head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)

2. Indy Eleven draws at Detroit City FC, moves to 48pts; Indy moves clear of Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC on maximum of 48pts via head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
- AND Hartford Athletic fails to take victory vs. North Carolina FC, maximum drops to 47pts
- AND Loudoun United FC fails to take victory at Rhode Island FC, maximum drops to 48pts; Indy holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)

3. Indy Eleven loses at Detroit City FC, remains on 47pts
- AND Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC fails to take victory vs. Charleston Battery, maximum drops to 46pts
- AND Hartford Athletic fails to take victory vs. North Carolina FC, maximum drops to 47pts; Indy holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
- AND Loudoun United FC loses vs. Rhode Island FC, maximum drops to 47pts; Indy holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
5. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 13-10-7, 46pts

Playoffs Odds: 87%

Projected Finish: 6th (49.8 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number: 5

Up Next: at LOU (10/12)
+
Outlook: The Tampa Bay Rowdies are in position to clinch a playoff berth this weekend on the road at Louisville City FC with a victory, but due to head-to-head tiebreakers that go against them vs. Birmingham Legion FC and Loudoun United FC or incomplete season series vs. Hartford Athletic and North Carolina FC, that’s the only means by which they can clinch this weekend. Due to Hartford hosting North Carolina, one is guaranteed to come through, which means Rowdies fans could be cheering for Rhode Island FC and Las Vegas Lights FC on Sunday to send them in if things have gone well in Louisville.
Tampa Bay Rowdies Clinch a Playoff Berth if:
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies win at Louisville City FC, move to 49pts, and two of four additional scenarios
- Hartford Athletic fails to take victory vs. North Carolina FC, maximum drops to 47pts
- Loudoun United FC fails to take victory at Rhode Island FC, maximum drops to 48pts
- North Carolina FC loses at Hartford Athletic, maximum drops to 48pts
- Birmingham Legion FC loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum drops to 48pt
6. Rhode Island FC
Record: 11-7-13, 46pts

Playoffs Odds: 89%

Projected Finish:4th (51.4 points)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: 5

Up Next: vs. LDN (10/13)
+
Outlook: Rhode Island is in a win and you’re in scenario on Sunday afternoon when it hosts Loudoun United FC as victory to move to 49pts would drop Loudoun’s maximum to 47pts, while the contest between Hartford Athletic and North Carolina FC on Saturday night guarantees one of the sides will drop below a maximum of 48pts regardless of the result. A draw would not quite be enough for RIFC, as it would move to 47pts while Loudoun would sit on a maximum of 48pts, keeping it from clinching this weekend with one of Hartford and North Carolina guaranteed to be at least at a maximum of 49pts after their clash.
Rhode Island FC Clinches a Playoff Berth if:
1. Rhode Island FC wins vs. Loudoun United FC, moves to 49pts; Loudoun’s maximum drops to 47pts
- AND Hartford Athletic fails to take victory vs. North Carolina FC, maximum drops to 47pts
- OR North Carolina FC fails to take victory at Hartford Athletic, maximum drops to 49pts; Rhode Island holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
7. North Carolina FC
Record: 11-11-9, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: 66%

Projected Finish: 7th (46.2 points)
Max Points Available: 51pts

Magic Number: 9

Up Next: at HFD (10/12)
+
Outlook: North Carolina’s victory against FC Tulsa on Wednesday night put it in control of its playoff path and it could strengthen that position this Saturday night when it visits Hartford Athletic in one of this weekend’s crucial games. A win for North Carolina would push Hartford to the brink of elimination and create potential separation on Loudoun United FC and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC as it makes a late push to make the postseason.
8. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 12-13-6, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: 61%

Projected Finish: 8th (45.9 points)
Max Points Available: 51pts

Magic Number: 9

Up Next:vs. LV (10/13)
+
Outlook: Legion will know where it stands by kickoff on Sunday night against Las Vegas Lights FC but could be under strong pressure to deliver a result depending on how games elsewhere play out. Birmingham’s fans should be rooting for the Charleston Battery to down Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, Rhode Island FC to defeat Loudoun United FC, and for Hartford Athletic and North Carolina FC to play to a draw, which would see all four of Legion’s rivals drop points over the weekend.
9. Loudoun United FC
Record: 11-12-8, 41pts

Playoffs Odds:44%

Projected Finish: 9th (44.4 points)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at RI (10/13)
+
Outlook: This is how quickly things can change in this close of a playoff race. Loudoun United was in control of its path to the playoffs until it conceded late against Indy Eleven on Tuesday night before North Carolina FC took victory on Wednesday. Now Loudoun needs to earn a result against Rhode Island FC on Sunday afternoon while hoping North Carolina and Hartford Athletic end up all square and both Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and Birmingham Legion FC drop their respective outings.
10. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 9-10-12, 39pts

Playoffs Odds: 33%

Projected Finish: 10th (42.5 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. CHS (10/12)
+
Outlook: The Hounds are in must-win territory with three games to go, and as good as the Charleston Battery are, the visitors don’t have a ton to play for since they’re locked into the No. 2 seed in the East. A win here coupled with a draw between North Carolina FC and Hartford Athletic and defeats for Birmingham Legion FC and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC would be the ideal circumstances elsewhere for Pittsburgh.
11. Hartford Athletic
Record: 10-13-7, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 30%

Projected Finish: 11th (39.6 points)
Max Points Available: 49pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. NC (10/12)
+
Outlook: Hartford is in must-win territory at home to North Carolina FC. If it takes victory, it would stay in the playoff race due to its game in hand. If it loses, however, its maximum available points would drop to 46pts, making its path to the postseason extremely unlikely.

Mathematically Eliminated: Miami FC

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Tag(s): Features  San Antonio FC  CO Spring Switchbacks  Orange County SC  Phoenix Rising FC  Sacramento Republic FC  FC Tulsa  Charleston Battery  Louisville City FC  Pittsburgh Riverhounds  Tampa Bay Rowdies  Las Vegas Lights FC  Birmingham Legion FC  North Carolina FC  Indy Eleven  Memphis 901 FC  El Paso Locomotive FC  New Mexico United  Loudoun United FC  Hartford Athletic  Miami FC  Oakland Roots SC  Race to the Playoffs  Detroit City FC  Monterey Bay F.C.  Rhode Island FC 

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