1. Louisville City FC
Record: 22-6-3, 69pts
Playoffs Odds: 100%
Projected Finish: 1st (75.0 points)
Max Points Available: 78pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. TBR (10/12)
Outlook: LouCity claimed its first Players’ Shield with three games to play thanks to Jake Morris’ late equalizer against Indy Eleven. Louisville would set a league record for total wins and equal the record for most points in a season alongside Phoenix Rising FC in 2019 if it wins its last three outings, starting at home to Tampa Bay on Saturday night, so we’ll see how Head Coach Danny Cruz chooses to play it with homefield advantage in the postseason secured.
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 17-5-9, 60pts
Playoffs Odds: 100%
Projected Finish: 2nd (66.2 points)
Max Points Available: 69pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at PIT (10/12)
Outlook: The Battery locked in a top-two finish in the Eastern Conference thanks to Rhode Island’s victory against Tampa Bay, even if it will have been disappointed to drop points at the death to Detroit City FC. With three games to play, it’s now up to Head Coach Ben Pirmann how he wants to see out the regular season with Louisville City out of reach in first. Given their last teams are all against teams with something at stake, starting on the road against playoff-chasing Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC this Saturday, it’s going to have an impact.
3. Detroit City FC
Record: 13-8-10, 49pts
Playoffs Odds: 95%
Projected Finish: 3rd (52.1 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 2
Up Next: vs. IND (10/12)
Outlook: Detroit City FC will clinch a playoff berth this weekend by virtue of Hartford Athletic playing host to North Carolina FC – regardless of the outcome of that contest, Le Rouge will be clear of one to seal its spot – but DCFC has the bigger picture to think about as it hosts fourth-place Indy Eleven. Take victory and the side could clinch a top-four finish next weekend, guaranteeing a home playoff game to kick off. A draw, meanwhile, would keep a two-point margin to Indy, but could let Rhode Island and Tampa Bay move closer.
Detroit City FC Clinches a Playoff Berth if:
1. Detroit City FC wins vs. Indy Eleven, moves to 52pts
2. Detroit City FC draws vs. Indy Eleven, moves to 50pts; Detroit moves clear of Loudoun United FC on maximum of 50pts via head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
3. Detroit City FC loses vs. Indy Eleven, remains on 49pts
- AND Hartford Athletic fails to take victory vs. North Carolina FC, maximum drops to 47pts
- OR Loudoun United FC fails to take victory vs. Rhode Island FC, maximum drops to 48pts
- OR North Carolina FC fails to take victory vs. Hartford Athletic, maximum drops to 49pts; Detroit holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
- OR Birmingham Legion FC loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum drops to 48pts
4. Indy Eleven
Record: 13-10-8, 47pts
Playoffs Odds: 84%
Projected Finish: 5th (50.1 points)
Max Points Available: 56pts
Magic Number: 4
Up Next: at DET (10/12)
Outlook: Indy Eleven’s victory against Loudoun United FC on Tuesday night was massive for multiple reasons, one of which was earning the head-to-head tiebreaker over Loudoun in the season series. That leaves multiple paths open for Indy to clinch this weekend. A victory against Detroit City sends the Boys in Blue in due to their head-to-head tiebreaker over Loudoun and would also move the side into third place in the standings ahead of Le Rouge. A draw or a loss would require other results to go Indy’s way, but they could still be in by the end of the Sunday’s action.
Indy Eleven Clinches a Playoff Berth if:
1. Indy Eleven wins at Detroit City FC, moves to 50pts; Indy moves clear of Loudoun United FC on maximum of 50pts via head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
2. Indy Eleven draws at Detroit City FC, moves to 48pts; Indy moves clear of Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC on maximum of 48pts via head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
- AND Hartford Athletic fails to take victory vs. North Carolina FC, maximum drops to 47pts
- AND Loudoun United FC fails to take victory at Rhode Island FC, maximum drops to 48pts; Indy holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
3. Indy Eleven loses at Detroit City FC, remains on 47pts
- AND Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC fails to take victory vs. Charleston Battery, maximum drops to 46pts
- AND Hartford Athletic fails to take victory vs. North Carolina FC, maximum drops to 47pts; Indy holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
- AND Loudoun United FC loses vs. Rhode Island FC, maximum drops to 47pts; Indy holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
5. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 13-10-7, 46pts
Playoffs Odds: 87%
Projected Finish: 6th (49.8 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 5
Up Next: at LOU (10/12)
Outlook: The Tampa Bay Rowdies are in position to clinch a playoff berth this weekend on the road at Louisville City FC with a victory, but due to head-to-head tiebreakers that go against them vs. Birmingham Legion FC and Loudoun United FC or incomplete season series vs. Hartford Athletic and North Carolina FC, that’s the only means by which they can clinch this weekend. Due to Hartford hosting North Carolina, one is guaranteed to come through, which means Rowdies fans could be cheering for Rhode Island FC and Las Vegas Lights FC on Sunday to send them in if things have gone well in Louisville.
Tampa Bay Rowdies Clinch a Playoff Berth if:
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies win at Louisville City FC, move to 49pts, and two of four additional scenarios
- Hartford Athletic fails to take victory vs. North Carolina FC, maximum drops to 47pts
- Loudoun United FC fails to take victory at Rhode Island FC, maximum drops to 48pts
- North Carolina FC loses at Hartford Athletic, maximum drops to 48pts
- Birmingham Legion FC loses vs. Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum drops to 48pt
6. Rhode Island FC
Record: 11-7-13, 46pts
Playoffs Odds: 89%
Projected Finish:4th (51.4 points)
Max Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: 5
Up Next: vs. LDN (10/13)
Outlook: Rhode Island is in a win and you’re in scenario on Sunday afternoon when it hosts Loudoun United FC as victory to move to 49pts would drop Loudoun’s maximum to 47pts, while the contest between Hartford Athletic and North Carolina FC on Saturday night guarantees one of the sides will drop below a maximum of 48pts regardless of the result. A draw would not quite be enough for RIFC, as it would move to 47pts while Loudoun would sit on a maximum of 48pts, keeping it from clinching this weekend with one of Hartford and North Carolina guaranteed to be at least at a maximum of 49pts after their clash.
Rhode Island FC Clinches a Playoff Berth if:
1. Rhode Island FC wins vs. Loudoun United FC, moves to 49pts; Loudoun’s maximum drops to 47pts
- AND Hartford Athletic fails to take victory vs. North Carolina FC, maximum drops to 47pts
- OR North Carolina FC fails to take victory at Hartford Athletic, maximum drops to 49pts; Rhode Island holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
7. North Carolina FC
Record: 11-11-9, 42pts
Playoffs Odds: 66%
Projected Finish: 7th (46.2 points)
Max Points Available: 51pts
Magic Number: 9
Up Next: at HFD (10/12)
Outlook: North Carolina’s victory against FC Tulsa on Wednesday night put it in control of its playoff path and it could strengthen that position this Saturday night when it visits Hartford Athletic in one of this weekend’s crucial games. A win for North Carolina would push Hartford to the brink of elimination and create potential separation on Loudoun United FC and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC as it makes a late push to make the postseason.
8. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 12-13-6, 42pts
Playoffs Odds: 61%
Projected Finish: 8th (45.9 points)
Max Points Available: 51pts
Magic Number: 9
Up Next:vs. LV (10/13)
Outlook: Legion will know where it stands by kickoff on Sunday night against Las Vegas Lights FC but could be under strong pressure to deliver a result depending on how games elsewhere play out. Birmingham’s fans should be rooting for the Charleston Battery to down Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, Rhode Island FC to defeat Loudoun United FC, and for Hartford Athletic and North Carolina FC to play to a draw, which would see all four of Legion’s rivals drop points over the weekend.
9. Loudoun United FC
Record: 11-12-8, 41pts
Playoffs Odds:44%
Projected Finish: 9th (44.4 points)
Max Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at RI (10/13)
Outlook: This is how quickly things can change in this close of a playoff race. Loudoun United was in control of its path to the playoffs until it conceded late against Indy Eleven on Tuesday night before North Carolina FC took victory on Wednesday. Now Loudoun needs to earn a result against Rhode Island FC on Sunday afternoon while hoping North Carolina and Hartford Athletic end up all square and both Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and Birmingham Legion FC drop their respective outings.
10. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 9-10-12, 39pts
Playoffs Odds: 33%
Projected Finish: 10th (42.5 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. CHS (10/12)
Outlook: The Hounds are in must-win territory with three games to go, and as good as the Charleston Battery are, the visitors don’t have a ton to play for since they’re locked into the No. 2 seed in the East. A win here coupled with a draw between North Carolina FC and Hartford Athletic and defeats for Birmingham Legion FC and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC would be the ideal circumstances elsewhere for Pittsburgh.
11. Hartford Athletic
Record: 10-13-7, 37pts
Playoffs Odds: 30%
Projected Finish: 11th (39.6 points)
Max Points Available: 49pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. NC (10/12)
Outlook: Hartford is in must-win territory at home to North Carolina FC. If it takes victory, it would stay in the playoff race due to its game in hand. If it loses, however, its maximum available points would drop to 46pts, making its path to the postseason extremely unlikely.