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How San Antonio FC went from perennial contender to potential outsider

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 10/01/24, 6:00PM EDT

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2022 title winner has lost its winning aura and faces uphill battle to get into the postseason this campaign


San Antonio FC has gone from the winningest side in the Western Conference over the past four seasons to potentially out of the playoffs with a month to go in the regular season. | Photo courtesy Darren Abate / San Antonio FC

This season has delivered some incredible storylines in the USL Championship.

Usually this is a good thing – see Nick Markanich’s successful pursuit of history for the Charleston Battery, for example.

In the case of San Antonio FC, it’s among the most unthinkable declines we’ve seen in league history.

  • WESTERN POWER: Since Head Coach Alen Marcina took the helm in 2020, San Antonio built itself into a powerhouse. It reached the Western Conference Final of the playoffs in 2021, won the league title in 2022, and over the past four seasons had won more games than any team in the West over the regular season and playoffs.

  • LONG-TERM BUILD: Between the 2020 and 2023 seasons, only two teams ranked in the top four in the Championship in total wins, goals, and goals conceded. San Antonio was one of them, the Tampa Bay Rowdies the other. The side also built a streak of more than 50 games without defeat when it scored first, a ridiculous achievement.

  • DUST IN THE WIND: This season, that’s all been for naught. After a 3-1 defeat against Rhode Island FC this past Saturday at Toyota Field, San Antonio sat in 10th place in the West, four points out of a playoff berth with five games to play. Four of those games? They’re against current top-three squads in either conference.

So, what gives? First, the aura of invincibility San Antonio built has been stripped away. When SAFC lost for the first time in more than three years after scoring first against Miami FC, it was one thing. When it happened again four games later against New Mexico United in late May, I wondered if it was time to be concerned.

Turns out, it was.

  • DOWN IN THE DUMPS: In June, San Antonio suffered its first five-game losing streak in club history, part of a run of eight defeats in nine games that sunk the side below the playoff line.

  • ATTACKING WOES: The attacking overperformance we were concerned about in May? The regression we said could happen came to pass. San Antonio’s attack has been its biggest weakness, with its Expected Goals mark sitting third-lowest in the league at 27.84xG for 28 goals.

  • LETTING POINTS GO: That’s resulted in the late-game magic that saw SAFC escape from numerous scrapes elude them. San Antonio has dropped 20 points from winning positions this season, second-most in the league, more than in its last two seasons combined, and the highest season total in club history.

San Antonio’s playoff odds currently sit at 24 percent, per our friend John Morrissey’s projections, which clearly means they’re not completely out of it yet.

Hosting a Sacramento Republic FC side that has won the last three meetings between the teams – including last year’s Western Conference Semifinal clash – this Saturday looks like the pivotal game of SAFC’s season.

Win, and you might still have a chance.

Fail to do so, chances are you’re going to have to make up more points than you have games left, an equation which never seems to add up for the teams trying to solve it.

In short, San Antonio’s season is on the line this weekend, in a way we never saw coming in March.

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