1. New Mexico United
Record: 18-9-3, 57pts
Playoffs Odds: 100%
Projected Finish: 1st (62.8 points)
Max Points Available: 69pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. PHX (10/9)
Outlook: New Mexico’s outside bid for the Players’ Shield came to an end with its loss in Sacramento on Sunday night, and now it gets a week off before a home game against Phoenix Rising FC that could be pivotal at the lower side of the playoff race. United has at least locked up a home playoff game for the first time in its history and could have another shot at clinching the No. 1 seed next week.
2. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 13-8-8, 47pts
Playoffs Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 2nd (58.0 points)
Max Points Available: 62pts
Magic Number: 3
Up Next: @ SA (10/5)
Outlook: Sacramento put itself back in a strong position to finish in the top two with its victory and can clinch its postseason berth this weekend. A victory against San Antonio FC earns Republic FC its spot. If the side draws it can also get in pending results from either FC Tulsa, Orange County SC or Phoenix Rising FC. If Republic FC falls to San Antonio, meanwhile, it will also clinch if either Tulsa or Orange County lose as well.
Sacramento Republic FC Clinches a Playoff Berth if:
1. Sacramento Republic FC wins at San Antonio FC, moves to 50pts
2. Sacramento Republic FC draws at San Antonio FC, moves to 48pts
AND - FC Tulsa fails to take victory vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, maximum drops to 47pts
OR – Orange County SC fails to take victory at Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum drops to 48pts; Sacramento holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
OR – Phoenix Rising FC loses vs. Monterey Bay F.C., maximum drops to 48pts; Sacramento holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
3. Sacramento Republic FC loses at San Antonio FC, remains on 47pts
AND - FC Tulsa loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, maximum drops to 46pts
OR – OR Orange County SC loses at Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum drops to 47pts; Sacramento holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 13-10-7, 46pts
Playoffs Odds: 97%
Projected Finish: 3rd (53.9 points)
Max Points Available: 58ts
Magic Number: 4
Up Next: @ OC (10/9)
Outlook: The Switchbacks wouldn’t quite have clinched a playoff berth if it had held on for victory against Loudoun United FC on Saturday night thanks to FC Tulsa’s victory, but having earned a season sweep of Tulsa earlier this season, the side can lock up its playoff spot this weekend without kicking a ball should Tulsa lose to El Paso Locomotive FC and San Antonio FC drop points at home against Sacramento Republic FC.
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC clinches a Playoffs berth if:
1. FC Tulsa loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, maximum available drops to 46pts; Switchbacks hold head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0-0)
- AND San Antonio FC fails to take victory vs. Sacramento Republic FC, maximum drops to 44pts
4. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 12-8-10, 46pts
Playoffs Odds: 95%
Projected Finish: 4th (52.0 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 4
Up Next: vs. OC (10/5)
Outlook: The Lights’ comeback against Phoenix Rising on Saturday night was stunning, and put the side in position to clinch its first postseason berth this Saturday night at home to Orange County SC. What’s more, it edged Las Vegas’ odds ahead of Memphis 901 FC to host a playoff game. Who’d have thought that entering stoppage time on Saturday?
Las Vegas Lights FC clinches a Playoffs berth if:
1. Las Vegas Lights FC wins vs. Orange County SC, moves to 49pts
- Orange County SC maximum available drops to 47pts, securing Las Vegas’ berth
2. Las Vegas Lights FC draws vs. Orange County SC, moves to 47pts
AND – FC Tulsa loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, maximum drops to 46pts
5. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 12-11-7, 43pts
Playoffs Odds: 92%
Projected Finish: 5th (51.8 points)
Max Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: 7
Up Next: vs. OAK (10/5)
Outlook: Memphis’ defeat in LouCity dropped their chances of a home playoff game thanks to Las Vegas’ miracle comeback in Phoenix, but they’re still in solid shape to earn a postseason berth as they host Oakland Roots SC this weekend. 901 FC could get there this weekend, in fact, thanks to holding the head-to-head goal differential tiebreaker over FC Tulsa, if it takes victory and has other results go its way.
Memphis 901 FC clinches a Playoffs Berth if:
1. Memphis 901 FC wins vs. Oakland Roots SC, moves to 46pts
AND – FC Tulsa loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, maximum available drops to 46pts; Memphis holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-1-0, +1GD)
AND – San Antonio FC fails to take victory vs. Sacramento Republic FC, maximum available drops to 44pts
6. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 12-14-4, 40pts
Playoffs Odds: 84%
Projected Finish: 6th (45.5 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: 10
Up Next: @ MEM (10/5)
Outlook: Roots’ four-game losing streak hasn’t diminished its playoff odds much yet, but the chasing pack is getting closer as it heads to face a Memphis 901 FC side that could clinch a playoff berth with a win on home turf. Oakland needs to find a result for its own confidence as much as anything at this point.
7. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 9-11-9, 36pts
Playoffs Odds: 71%
Projected Finish: 8th (39.8 points)
Max Points Available: 51pts
Magic Number: 14
Up Next: vs. MB (10/4)
Outlook: Phoenix went from putting a strong hold on seventh place – and the potential to threaten Oakland Roots for sixth – to getting dragged into a scrap for eighth place once again after its late capitulation to Las Vegas. The good news for Rising is Monterey Bay’s terrible form, which gives the side a good shot at a home win on Friday night. Another slip-up could be devastating.
8. Orange County SC
Record: 10-14-5, 35pts
Playoffs Odds: 36%
Projected Finish: 9th (37.1 points)
Max Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: 15
Up Next: @ LV (10/5)
Outlook: Orange County is under pressure again after FC Tulsa’s victory in Oakland on Sunday evening, holding a one-point lead in eighth place with five games to go. OCSC’s challenge is its remaining schedule which includes three games currently in the top four of the West starting with Saturday’s visit to Las Vegas, and a midweek trip to El Paso offering the only potential respite. Tulsa, meanwhile, features four teams currently sitting outside the playoff places in its final five.
9. FC Tulsa
Record: 8-11-10, 34pts
Playoffs Odds: 71%
Projected Finish: 7th (40.5 points)
Max Points Available: 49pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. ELP (10/5)
Outlook: Tulsa’s victory in Oakland wasn’t just timely in breaking a five-game winless run but pushed the side back into serious contention for a playoff berth. Now the Scissortails need to keep that momentum going at home to last-place El Paso Locomotive and hope for Orange County SC to drop points as it visits Las Vegas Lights FC on Saturday night.
10. San Antonio FC
Record: 8-14-7, 31pts
Playoffs Odds: 24%
Projected Finish: 11th (35.5 points)
Max Points Available: 46pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SAC (10/5)
Outlook: San Antonio couldn’t have had much of a worse week. Between its defeat at home to Rhode Island FC and both Orange County SC and FC Tulsa taking victory, the 2022 title winner is under massive pressure as Sacramento Republic FC visits Toyota Field on Saturday. More dropped points – even a draw isn’t helpful here – and a victory for either Tulsa or Orange County would tilt SAFC to having more points to make up than it has games remaining. That’s never a spot a team wants to be in.
11. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 7-14-9, 30pts
Playoffs Odds: 22%
Projected Finish: 10th (35.8 points)
Max Points Available: 42pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: @ PHX (10/4)
Outlook: Monterey Bay has hit the likely point of no return after its loss to Detroit City. With five points to make up to eighth-place Orange County SC with four games to play, the playoffs are not looking on the cards. The only way to change that? Win at Phoenix on Friday night and get within three points of Rising with three games to play.
12. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 6-16-7, 25pts
Playoffs Odds: 3%
Projected Finish: 12th (26.0 points)
Max Points Available: 40pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: @ TUL (10/5)
Outlook: For the first time since we began the Race to the Playoffs series, El Paso’s playoff odds are above one percent. Does that make it likely they’ll be in the postseason? No, but it could help out everyone else around the playoff line if it takes victory against FC Tulsa on the road this Saturday.