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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – October 2-6

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 09/30/24, 2:40PM EDT

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LouCity aims for six-point week and Players’ Shield, five clubs could clinch postseason berths this weekend


The LIPAFC Trophy will be on the line this weekend, but Louisville City FC would also clinch its first Players' Shield in club history with a victory against Indy Eleven. | Photo courtesy Club Eleven / United Soccer League

Welcome to the latest edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs presented by Terminix, where we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2024 USL Championship Playoffs in October.

This past weekend didn’t see any teams clinch a place in the postseason thanks to FC Tulsa’s road victory in Oakland – which boosted its playoff chances significantly – but this week there are five teams in with a chance of earning their place in the playoffs, while Louisville City FC can earn the Players’ Shield for the first time in its history.

This season, we’re grateful to our friend John Morrissey at USL Tactics for providing the data for playoff projections. Now, here are some games to watch this weekend and an overview of where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Saturday, October 5
Hartford Athletic
Loudoun United FC
7:00 PM
Stadium IconTrinity Health Stadium
Match Center
Tickets

It doesn’t get much more crucial than this. Eighth-place Loudoun United FC’s dramatic equalizer against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC left it a point ahead of Hartford Athletic in ninth with each team having five games to play in the regular season. If there’s a decisive result, it will almost certainly be pivotal in the race for the final playoff berth. If the game ends all square, it keeps the door open for Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC – which hosts Miami – and North Carolina FC – more on them below – to take advantage.

Saturday, October 5
Indy Eleven
Louisville City FC
7:00 PM
Stadium IconMichael A. Carroll Stadium
Match Center
Tickets

With victory against Miami FC secured – and with it the Championship’s single-season records for home wins and goals – the Boys in Purple could clinch the Players’ Shield for the first time on the home turf of their closest rival. With a win, LouCity would move to 71 points, clear of the Charleston Battery on head-to-head goal differential regardless of the Battery’s result against Detroit City FC. If the Battery drop points against Detroit City FC in the early evening, Louisville would need only a point as it already holds head-to-head tiebreakers over both the Battery and New Mexico United, which saw its maximum available total drop to 69 points after its loss to Sacramento. For Indy, however, this is also a huge game as it pursues a top-four finish. If the hosts split the series and break a three-game losing streak to LouCity, it keeps things very interesting.

Saturday, October 5
San Antonio FC
Sacramento Republic FC
8:30 PM
Stadium IconToyota Field
Match Center
Tickets

This might be the last-chance saloon for San Antonio FC as it stares at a four-point deficit with five games to play when it hosts Sacramento Republic FC. If SAFC suffers another defeat and sees either Orange County SC or FC Tulsa take results this weekend, it’s going to be a difficult gap to bridge. For Republic FC, meanwhile, it will look to carry the momentum of its big win against New Mexico United forward and clinch its playoff place, which would happen with a win regardless of results elsewhere.

Sunday, October 6
Birmingham Legion FC
North Carolina FC
6:00 PM
Stadium IconProtective Stadium
Match Center
Tickets

Birmingham Legion’s first point at Highmark Stadium in club history solidified its position in the top eight, even if a top-four finish is looking like a long-shot at this point. The hosts will want to maintain that push, but North Carolina should offer a serious challenge with this game looking like a must-win after this past weekend’s flop in El Paso. NCFC will know where it stands going in after Loudoun, Hartford and Pittsburgh play on Saturday night. Depending on those results, the urgency could ratchet up even higher for the visitors.

western conference

1. New Mexico United
Record: 18-9-3, 57pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 1st (62.8 points)
Max Points Available: 69pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. PHX (10/9)
+
Outlook: New Mexico’s outside bid for the Players’ Shield came to an end with its loss in Sacramento on Sunday night, and now it gets a week off before a home game against Phoenix Rising FC that could be pivotal at the lower side of the playoff race. United has at least locked up a home playoff game for the first time in its history and could have another shot at clinching the No. 1 seed next week.
2. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 13-8-8, 47pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 2nd (58.0 points)
Max Points Available: 62pts

Magic Number: 3

Up Next: @ SA (10/5)
+
Outlook: Sacramento put itself back in a strong position to finish in the top two with its victory and can clinch its postseason berth this weekend. A victory against San Antonio FC earns Republic FC its spot. If the side draws it can also get in pending results from either FC Tulsa, Orange County SC or Phoenix Rising FC. If Republic FC falls to San Antonio, meanwhile, it will also clinch if either Tulsa or Orange County lose as well.

Sacramento Republic FC Clinches a Playoff Berth if:
1. Sacramento Republic FC wins at San Antonio FC, moves to 50pts

2. Sacramento Republic FC draws at San Antonio FC, moves to 48pts
AND - FC Tulsa fails to take victory vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, maximum drops to 47pts
OR – Orange County SC fails to take victory at Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum drops to 48pts; Sacramento holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
OR – Phoenix Rising FC loses vs. Monterey Bay F.C., maximum drops to 48pts; Sacramento holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)

3. Sacramento Republic FC loses at San Antonio FC, remains on 47pts
AND - FC Tulsa loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, maximum drops to 46pts
OR – OR Orange County SC loses at Las Vegas Lights FC, maximum drops to 47pts; Sacramento holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 13-10-7, 46pts

Playoffs Odds: 97%

Projected Finish: 3rd (53.9 points)
Max Points Available: 58ts

Magic Number: 4

Up Next: @ OC (10/9)
+
Outlook: The Switchbacks wouldn’t quite have clinched a playoff berth if it had held on for victory against Loudoun United FC on Saturday night thanks to FC Tulsa’s victory, but having earned a season sweep of Tulsa earlier this season, the side can lock up its playoff spot this weekend without kicking a ball should Tulsa lose to El Paso Locomotive FC and San Antonio FC drop points at home against Sacramento Republic FC.

Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC clinches a Playoffs berth if:
1. FC Tulsa loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, maximum available drops to 46pts; Switchbacks hold head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0-0)
- AND San Antonio FC fails to take victory vs. Sacramento Republic FC, maximum drops to 44pts
4. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 12-8-10, 46pts

Playoffs Odds: 95%

Projected Finish: 4th (52.0 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number: 4

Up Next: vs. OC (10/5)
+
Outlook: The Lights’ comeback against Phoenix Rising on Saturday night was stunning, and put the side in position to clinch its first postseason berth this Saturday night at home to Orange County SC. What’s more, it edged Las Vegas’ odds ahead of Memphis 901 FC to host a playoff game. Who’d have thought that entering stoppage time on Saturday?

Las Vegas Lights FC clinches a Playoffs berth if:
1. Las Vegas Lights FC wins vs. Orange County SC, moves to 49pts
- Orange County SC maximum available drops to 47pts, securing Las Vegas’ berth

2. Las Vegas Lights FC draws vs. Orange County SC, moves to 47pts
AND – FC Tulsa loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, maximum drops to 46pts
5. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 12-11-7, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: 92%

Projected Finish: 5th (51.8 points)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: 7

Up Next: vs. OAK (10/5)
+
Outlook: Memphis’ defeat in LouCity dropped their chances of a home playoff game thanks to Las Vegas’ miracle comeback in Phoenix, but they’re still in solid shape to earn a postseason berth as they host Oakland Roots SC this weekend. 901 FC could get there this weekend, in fact, thanks to holding the head-to-head goal differential tiebreaker over FC Tulsa, if it takes victory and has other results go its way.

Memphis 901 FC clinches a Playoffs Berth if:
1. Memphis 901 FC wins vs. Oakland Roots SC, moves to 46pts
AND – FC Tulsa loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, maximum available drops to 46pts; Memphis holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-1-0, +1GD)
AND – San Antonio FC fails to take victory vs. Sacramento Republic FC, maximum available drops to 44pts
6. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 12-14-4, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 84%

Projected Finish: 6th (45.5 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: 10

Up Next: @ MEM (10/5)
+
Outlook: Roots’ four-game losing streak hasn’t diminished its playoff odds much yet, but the chasing pack is getting closer as it heads to face a Memphis 901 FC side that could clinch a playoff berth with a win on home turf. Oakland needs to find a result for its own confidence as much as anything at this point.
7. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 9-11-9, 36pts

Playoffs Odds: 71%

Projected Finish: 8th (39.8 points)
Max Points Available: 51pts

Magic Number: 14

Up Next: vs. MB (10/4)
+
Outlook: Phoenix went from putting a strong hold on seventh place – and the potential to threaten Oakland Roots for sixth – to getting dragged into a scrap for eighth place once again after its late capitulation to Las Vegas. The good news for Rising is Monterey Bay’s terrible form, which gives the side a good shot at a home win on Friday night. Another slip-up could be devastating.
8. Orange County SC
Record: 10-14-5, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 36%

Projected Finish: 9th (37.1 points)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: 15

Up Next: @ LV (10/5)
+
Outlook: Orange County is under pressure again after FC Tulsa’s victory in Oakland on Sunday evening, holding a one-point lead in eighth place with five games to go. OCSC’s challenge is its remaining schedule which includes three games currently in the top four of the West starting with Saturday’s visit to Las Vegas, and a midweek trip to El Paso offering the only potential respite. Tulsa, meanwhile, features four teams currently sitting outside the playoff places in its final five.
9. FC Tulsa
Record: 8-11-10, 34pts

Playoffs Odds: 71%

Projected Finish: 7th (40.5 points)
Max Points Available: 49pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. ELP (10/5)
+
Outlook: Tulsa’s victory in Oakland wasn’t just timely in breaking a five-game winless run but pushed the side back into serious contention for a playoff berth. Now the Scissortails need to keep that momentum going at home to last-place El Paso Locomotive and hope for Orange County SC to drop points as it visits Las Vegas Lights FC on Saturday night.
10. San Antonio FC
Record: 8-14-7, 31pts

Playoffs Odds: 24%

Projected Finish: 11th (35.5 points)
Max Points Available: 46pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. SAC (10/5)
+
Outlook: San Antonio couldn’t have had much of a worse week. Between its defeat at home to Rhode Island FC and both Orange County SC and FC Tulsa taking victory, the 2022 title winner is under massive pressure as Sacramento Republic FC visits Toyota Field on Saturday. More dropped points – even a draw isn’t helpful here – and a victory for either Tulsa or Orange County would tilt SAFC to having more points to make up than it has games remaining. That’s never a spot a team wants to be in.
11. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 7-14-9, 30pts

Playoffs Odds: 22%

Projected Finish: 10th (35.8 points)
Max Points Available: 42pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ PHX (10/4)
+
Outlook: Monterey Bay has hit the likely point of no return after its loss to Detroit City. With five points to make up to eighth-place Orange County SC with four games to play, the playoffs are not looking on the cards. The only way to change that? Win at Phoenix on Friday night and get within three points of Rising with three games to play.
12. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 6-16-7, 25pts

Playoffs Odds: 3%

Projected Finish: 12th (26.0 points)
Max Points Available: 40pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ TUL (10/5)
+
Outlook: For the first time since we began the Race to the Playoffs series, El Paso’s playoff odds are above one percent. Does that make it likely they’ll be in the postseason? No, but it could help out everyone else around the playoff line if it takes victory against FC Tulsa on the road this Saturday.

Eastern Conference

1. Louisville City FC
Record: 22-6-2, 68pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 1st (76.4 points)
Max Points Available: 80pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ IND (10/5)
+
Outlook: The first Players’ Shield in LouCity’s history is within reach on Saturday night after its comfortable victory against Miami FC. With a victory against LIPAFC rival Indy Eleven, Louisville will be out of reach of the Charleston Battery on 71 points thanks to claiming the head-to-head goal differential tiebreaker regardless of how the Battery fare against Detroit City FC. If the Battery drop points, meanwhile, LouCity would need only a draw to move to 69 points and also clear of New Mexico United thanks to its win at Isotopes Park earlier this season which secured the head-to-head tiebreaker between the sides.

Louisville City FC wins the 2024 USL Championship Players’ Shield if::
1. Louisville City FC wins at Indy Eleven, moves to 71pts
- Win moves LouCity clear of Charleston Battery on maximum of 71pts through head-to-head goal differential tiebreaker (1-1-0, +1GD)

2. Louisville City FC draws at Indy Eleven, moves to 69pts; moves LouCity clear of New Mexico United on maximum of 69pts under head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-0)
AND – Charleston Battery fails to take victory vs. Detroit City FC, maximum drops to at least 69pts; LouCity holds head-to-head goal differential tiebreaker over Battery (1-1-0, +1GD)
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 17-5-8, 59pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 2nd (68.1 points)
Max Points Available: 71pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. DET (10/5)
+
Outlook: The Battery return to action this weekend knowing either a win would clinch a top-two finish and a draw might, depending on how the Tampa Bay Rowdies fare against Rhode Island FC. LouCity is looking to be too far away to catch with only four games to play, however.

Charleston Battery Clinch a Top-Two Position if:
1. Charleston Battery win vs. Detroit City FC, move to 62pts

2. Charleston Battery draw vs. Detroit City FC, move to 60pts; Detroit’s maximum drops to 58pts
AND – Tampa Bay Rowdies fails to take victory at Rhode Island FC, maximum drops to 59pts
3. Detroit City FC
Record: 13-8-9, 48pts

Playoffs Odds: 90%

Projected Finish: 3rd (52.9 points)
Max Points Available: 60pts

Magic Number: 5

Up Next: @ CHS (10/5)
+
Outlook: Detroit City put itself in position to clinch its third consecutive postseason berth since joining the USL Championship with its win against Monterey Bay F.C. as it heads for a top-three clash with the Charleston Battery on Saturday evening. Only one team has won at Patriots Point this season, but if Le Rouge join El Paso Locomotive FC, it’s assured a playoff berth due to the clash between Hartford Athletic and Loudoun United later in the evening.

Detroit City FC clinches a Playoffs berth if:
1. Detroit City FC wins at Charleston Battery, moves to 51pts; Detroit moves clear of North Carolina FC on maximum of 51pts via head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
AND – Hartford Athletic fails to take victory vs. Loudoun United FC, maximum drops to 50pts
OR – Loudoun United FC fails to take victory vs. Hartford Athletic, maximum drops to 51pts; Detroit holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
4. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 13-9-7, 46pts

Playoffs Odds: 89%

Projected Finish: 4th (51.7 points)
Max Points Available: 61pts

Magic Number: 7

Up Next: @ RI (10/5)
+
Outlook: After this past weekend’s postponement against Hartford Athletic, the Rowdies can’t quite clinch a playoff berth this Saturday as they head to face Rhode Island FC with the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Athletic remaining unresolved. Tampa Bay will hope to pick up all three points against a good RIFC side and get a favor from the Charleston Battery against Detroit City FC to move back into third place ahead of a busy final stretch of the campaign.
5. Indy Eleven
Record: 12-10-7, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: 83%

Projected Finish: 6th (48.0 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number: 10

Up Next: vs. LOU (10/5)
+
Outlook: Indy got an emphatic victory at home to Miami FC as it had hoped for and now gears up for one of its biggest games of the season. If it can take victory at home to Louisville City FC in the LIPAFC on Saturday, it should close in on a postseason return. If it fails to take victory, it won’t be disastrous thanks to Hartford hosting Loudoun and Birmingham facing North Carolina this weekend, but it will leave more work to be done against a pretty sturdy run of opponents.
6. Rhode Island FC
Record: 10-7-13, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: 84%

Projected Finish:5th (50.8 points)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: 10

Up Next: vs. TBR (10/5)
+
Outlook: Rhode Island is rolling toward the postseason after consecutive wins to rebound from its downturn early in the month. It can’t quite cross the finish line this weekend as it hosts the Tampa Bay Rowdies, but it would potentially move within range to clinch with a win thanks to the matchups elsewhere ensuring points will be dropped around the playoff line.
7. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 12-12-6, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: 81%

Projected Finish: 7th (47.7 points)
Max Points Available: 54pts

Magic Number: 11

Up Next: vs. NC (10/6)
+
Outlook: Stefano Pinho’s superb finish against Pittsburgh was massive for Legion, which can take a strong grip on its sixth consecutive playoff berth when it hosts North Carolina FC on Sunday night. A victory would give Legion a 10-point advantage over NCFC and keep the rest of the pack at arm’s length.
8. Loudoun United FC
Record: 10-11-8, 38pts

Playoffs Odds:48%

Projected Finish: 9th (42.0 points)
Max Points Available: 53pts

Magic Number: 15

Up Next: @ HFD (10/5)
+
Outlook: There haven’t been many teams earn results at Weidner Field this season, so Kalil ElMedkhar’s late equalizer was huge for Loudoun’s playoff chances. This Saturday’s game at Hartford Athletic, however, is absolutely crucial. If United earns a win on the road, it sets up a big two-game week. If it falls, it might not get back above the playoff line again.
9. Hartford Athletic
Record: 10-12-7, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 35%

Projected Finish: 10th (41.4 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. LDN (10/5)
+
Outlook: Hartford’s postponed contest didn’t lose it a position in the standings and thanks to Saturday’s visit to Loudoun United and five games to play, Athletic is in control of its path to the playoffs. Win at home and Hartford will be above the playoff line at the end of the week, but if Birmingham Legion can take a result against North Carolina FC, that would be very useful as well.
10. North Carolina FC
Record: 9-11-9, 36pts

Playoffs Odds: 60%

Projected Finish: 8th (42.2 points)
Max Points Available: 51pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ BHM (10/6)
+
Outlook: North Carolina undid the good work it did in falling to El Paso Locomotive FC on Saturday afternoon and now must get back on the horse this Sunday evening against Birmingham Legion. NCFC has five games to go, and only two points to make up, but it will have a close eye on Hartford Athletic vs. Loudoun United FC on Saturday night where a draw would be the best possible result for them.
11. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 8-10-12, 36pts

Playoffs Odds: 33%

Projected Finish: 11th (41.4 points)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: @ MIA (10/5)
+
Outlook: The eight points Pittsburgh has dropped from winning positions this season at Highmark Stadium are starting to loom large. The Hounds must take victory this Saturday away at Miami FC and hope for a draw between Hartford Athletic and Loudoun United and a defeat for North Carolina FC against Birmingham Legion FC to keep them in the picture with only four games to go.

Mathematically Eliminated: Miami FC

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Tag(s): Features  San Antonio FC  CO Spring Switchbacks  Orange County SC  Phoenix Rising FC  Sacramento Republic FC  FC Tulsa  Charleston Battery  Louisville City FC  Pittsburgh Riverhounds  Tampa Bay Rowdies  Las Vegas Lights FC  Birmingham Legion FC  North Carolina FC  Indy Eleven  Memphis 901 FC  El Paso Locomotive FC  New Mexico United  Loudoun United FC  Hartford Athletic  Oakland Roots SC  Race to the Playoffs  Detroit City FC  Monterey Bay F.C.  Rhode Island FC 

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