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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – September 25-29

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 09/26/24, 9:55AM EDT

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New Mexico could lock up No. 1 seed out west, Switchbacks, Republic FC take aim at clinching berths


Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC hosts Birmingham Legion FC on Saturday night in a crucial game around the playoff line in the Eastern Conference. | Photo courtesy Birmingham Legion FC

Welcome to the latest edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs presented by Terminix, where we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2024 USL Championship Playoffs in October.

This week, New Mexico United can take aim at clinching the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference when they square off with Sacramento Republic FC on ESPN2 this Sunday, Republic FC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC could book their postseason places, and we’ve got some critical games in both conferences around the playoff line.

This season, we’re grateful to our friend John Morrissey at USL Tactics for providing the data for playoff projections. Now, here are some games to watch this week and an overview of where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Saturday, September 28
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Birmingham Legion FC
7:00 PM
Stadium IconHighmark Stadium
Match Center
Tickets

With only five games to play, the margin of error for Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC is the thinnest of any team vying for a playoff berth in the lower half of the Eastern Conference. The Hounds dropped to 11th place after victories by Hartford Athletic and North Carolina FC on Saturday night and saw their playoff odds drop to 32 percent from a better than 50-50 chance this time last week. That makes winning at home against Legion essential to their chances, while for Birmingham this is a chance to solidify its position above the line and potentially take out a threat for everyone else.

Sunday, September 29
Oakland Roots SC
FC Tulsa
6:00 PM
Stadium IconPioneer Stadium
Match Center
Tickets

Despite its three-game losing streak, Oakland Roots SC is still in a solid position to make the playoffs with a nine-point cushion to ninth-placed FC Tulsa entering the week. At the same time, this is a game that could go a long way to Tulsa’s playoff drive as they seek to rebound from a late disappointment against Rhode Island FC. If the margin becomes six points between the sides – with Tulsa holding a game in hand – it could turn up a bit of pressure on Roots.

Sunday, September 29
Sacramento Republic FC
New Mexico United
8:30 PM
Stadium IconHeart Health Park
Match Center
Tickets

This past weekend’s action has put New Mexico United in position to not only earn the first home playoff game in club history but clinch the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference when it visits Sacramento Republic FC for their second meeting in 11 days. With a win, United would move to 60 points, putting it clear of Sacramento – which would see its maximum available drop to 59 points – and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, where New Mexico holds the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Switchbacks sitting on a maximum available total of 60 points. Republic FC, meanwhile, will be aiming to get its season back on track after losing three of its last four games, a run that has put its bid for second place in jeopardy. There’s also the incentive for the hosts that they could seal a postseason berth with a win, pending Saturday’s results.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. New Mexico United
Record: 18-8-3, 57pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 1st (64.5 points)
Max Points Available: 72pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at SAC (9/29)
+
Outlook: New Mexico’s six-point week has put it in position to clinch the No. 1 seed with victory against Sacramento Republic FC on Sunday evening. By the time kickoff arrives, it could already have earned at least a top-four position and the first home playoff game in club history with a month to go in the season.

New Mexico United Clinches a Top-Four Finish if:
1. New Mexico wins vs. Sacramento Republic FC, moves to 60pts; moves clear of Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC on maximum of 60pts via head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0-0), Sacramento's maximum drops to 59pts

2.New Mexico United draws vs. Sacramento Republic FC, moves to 58pts
AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory at Louisville City FC, maximum drops to 56pts
OR Las Vegas Lights FC fails to take victory at Phoenix Rising FC, maximum drops to 56pts

3. New Mexico United loses vs. Sacramento Republic FC, remains at 57pts
AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory at Louisville City FC, maximum drops to 56pts
AND Las Vegas Lights FC and Phoenix Rising FC play to a draw, Las Vegas’ maximum drops to 56pts, Phoenix’s maximum drops to 55pts

New Mexico United Clinches the West’s No. 1 seed if:
1. New Mexico United wins vs. Sacramento Republic FC, moves to 60pts; moves clear of Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC on maximum of 60pts via head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0-0), Sacramento's maximum drops to 59pts
2. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 13-10-6, 45pts

Playoffs Odds: 98%

Projected Finish: 3rd (54.5 points)
Max Points Available: 60pts

Magic Number: 5

Up Next: vs. LDN (9/28)
+
Outlook: The Switchbacks’ path to clinching a postseason berth this weekend became a little narrower thanks to Orange County’s victory on Wednesday night, but they can still close out a fourth consecutive postseason berth this weekend with a win at home against Loudoun United FC this Saturday should both FC Tulsa and San Antonio FC drop points in their respective contests.

Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC clinches a Playoffs berth if:
1. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC wins vs. Loudoun United FC, moves to 48pts
AND - FC Tulsa fails to take victory vs. Oakland Roots SC, maximum drops to 47pts
AND - San Antonio FC fails to take victory vs. Rhode Island FC, maximum drops to 47pts
3. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 12-8-8, 44pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 2nd (56.6 points)
Max Points Available: 62pts

Magic Number: 6

Up Next: vs. NM (9/29)
+
Outlook: Republic FC needs to get back in the win column as it bids to take second in the West, but Orange County’s victory on Wednesday night meant the side’s path to clinching a playoff berth this weekend narrowed a little. Sacramento would need both San Antonio FC (vs. RI, 9/28) and FC Tulsa (at OAK, 9/29) to lose this weekend to open the door for Sacramento to seal its place.

Sacramento Republic FC Clinches a Playoff Berth if:
1. Sacramento Republic FC wins vs. New Mexico United, moves to 47pts
AND - FC Tulsa loses vs. Oakland Roots SC, maximum drops to 46pts
AND - San Antonio FC loses vs. Rhode Island FC, maximum drops to 46pts
4. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 12-10-7, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: 95%

Projected Finish: 4th (54.1 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number: 7

Up Next: at LOU (9/28)
+
Outlook: Memphis got a lot out of this weekend without playing thanks to both Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC and Sacramento Republic FC dropping points. It can’t quite clinch this weekend with a win against Louisville City FC – it doesn’t hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over San Antonio FC as the sides split their series and scored one goal apiece – but it’s in solid shape to be back in the postseason soon enough.
5. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 11-8-10, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: 92%

Projected Finish: 5th (50.4 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number: 7

Up Next: at PHX (9/28)
+
Outlook: The Lights took another big step toward their postseason with Saturday night’s win against Sacramento and find themselves in the same boat as Memphis. They can’t quite clinch this Saturday thanks to FC Tulsa holding the head-to-head tiebreaker between the teams but if the Lights were to win and both San Antonio and Tulsa to lose on Saturday, it’s looking like only a matter of time before that spot is wrapped up.
6. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 12-13-4, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 86%

Projected Finish: 6th (46.6 points)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: 10

Up Next: vs. TUL (9/29)
+
Outlook: Oakland has built up enough playoff currency that its first three-game scoreless streak since 2021 hasn’t affected its playoff odds too much. That was aided by both Tulsa and San Antonio dropping their contests over the weekend, but it also makes this weekend important. If Oakland wins against Tulsa on Sunday night, it opens the door for others above them to clinch, but it would also put Roots right where it needs to be to join them.
7. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 9-10-9, 36pts

Playoffs Odds: 74%

Projected Finish: 7th (40.7 points)
Max Points Available: 54pts

Magic Number: 14

Up Next: vs. LV (9/28)
+
Outlook: Rising’s defeat against Orange County was a setback, but the side is still in a solid position with six games remaining in the campaign and a five-point cushion to the teams below the playoff line as it returns home to face Las Vegas on Saturday. Phoenix is undefeated in its last nine outings on home turf (5-0-4) and will be banking on another good performance to keep its postseason pursuit moving in the right direction.
8. Orange County SC
Record: 10-14-5, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 61%

Projected Finish: 8th (38.4 points)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: 15

Up Next: at LV (10/5)
+
Outlook: How pivotal was Orange County’s victory against Phoenix Rising on Wednesday night? The 2-0 victory at Championship Soccer Stadium led by Ethan Zubak’s brace sent the side’s playoff odds from 26 percent to 61 percent overnight as the side began to build momentum and put pressure on the sides chasing it below the playoff line. OCSC will be scoreboard-watching this weekend hoping Oakland Roots, Rhode Island FC and Detroit City FC can take points off the three teams pursuing them below the playoff line.
9. FC Tulsa
Record: 7-11-10, 31pts

Playoffs Odds: 40%

Projected Finish:9th (38.2 points)
Max Points Available: 49pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at OAK (9/29)
+
Outlook: Orange County SC’s victory against Phoenix on Wednesday night moved OCSC ahead of Tulsa in the projected final standings, and in turn ratcheted up the pressure on Tulsa to respond this Sunday against Oakland Roots SC. With only one point from its past five outings, the Scissortails need to turn their form around fast if they’re going to sustain a playoff bid.
10. San Antonio FC
Record: 8-13-7, 31pts

Playoffs Odds: 27%

Projected Finish: 11th (36.6 points)
Max Points Available: 49pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. RI (9/28)
+
Outlook: San Antonio was already under the gun after its loss to Phoenix this past weekend, but Orange County SC’s victory on Wednesday night has made its home clash with Rhode Island FC that much more of a must-win. SAFC has four of its final six games at Toyota Field, but all of them come against teams currently above the playoff line, ramping up the pressure on the 2022 title-winners to keep their playoff streak alive.
11. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 7-13-9, 30pts

Playoffs Odds: 25%

Projected Finish: 10th (37.5 points)
Max Points Available: 45pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. DET (9/28)
+
Outlook: Following Orange County’s victory against Phoenix, Monterey Bay must make up a five-point margin with five games to play. That’s typically a tall ask – rule of thumb dictates when the number of points you need to make up is higher than your games remaining, that’s probably it – and that makes Saturday’s home game against Detroit City FC a must-win for Head Coach Jordan Stewart’s side.
12. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 5-16-7, 22pts

Playoffs Odds: <1%

Projected Finish: 12th (23.1 points)
Max Points Available: 40pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. NC (9/28)
+
Outlook: Once again, it’s not mathematically over for Locomotive, which did well to earn a point at home against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC on Saturday, but it’s unlikely we see the sort of form over the final six games that’s going to get El Paso back into the mix for eighth place.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Louisville City FC
Record: 20-6-2, 62pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 1st (73.6 points)
Max Points Available: 80pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. MEM (9/28)
+
Outlook: LouCity is locked into a top-two spot thanks to the Charleston Battery’s victory on Saturday night against the Tampa Bay Rowdies but still has work to do to seal the top seed in the East and the Players’ Shield after its loss in Detroit on Sunday. It’ll get back to it on Saturday at home to Memphis as it seeks to equal the Championship’s single-season record for home victories after a couple of weekends on the road.

Louisville City Clinches a Top-Two Finish if:
1. Louisville City FC wins vs. Detroit City FC, moves to 65pts, clear of the Tampa Bay Rowdies’ maximum available points total of 64pts

2. Louisville City FC draws vs. Detroit City FC, moves to 63pts
AND – Tampa Bay Rowdies fail to take victory vs. Charleston Battery, maximum available points drops to at least 62pts.

3. Louisville City FC loses vs. Detroit City FC, remains on 62pts
AND – Tampa Bay Rowdies lose vs. Charleston Battery, maximum available points drops to 61pts
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 17-5-8, 59pts

Playoffs Odds: 100%

Projected Finish: 2nd (69.6 points)
Max Points Available: 71pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. DET (10/5)
+
Outlook: The Battery are off this week, but with a top-four spot locked up they could go the next step and seal a top-two position with help from Hartford Athletic and Monterey Bay F.C.

Charleston Battery Clinch a Top-Two Position if:
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies lose vs. Hartford Athletic, drop to maximum of 58pts
AND – Detroit City FC fails to take victory vs. Monterey Bay F.C., drops to maximum of at least 58pts
3. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 13-9-7, 46pts

Playoffs Odds: 90%

Projected Finish: 3rd (53.3 points)
Max Points Available: 61pts

Magic Number: 9

Up Next: vs. HFD (9/28)
+
Outlook: The Rowdies have company in the race for third place thanks to their defeat in Charleston and Detroit City FC knocking off Louisville City FC on Sunday afternoon. They could take a big step toward assuring their place in the postseason overall this weekend, however. A win against Hartford Athletic and dropped points elsewhere in the lower half of the standings could get Tampa Bay in position to clinch a spot vs. Rhode Island FC on October 5.
4. Detroit City FC
Record: 12-8-9, 45pts

Playoffs Odds: 88%

Projected Finish: 4th (51.2 points)
Max Points Available: 60pts

Magic Number: 10

Up Next: at MB (9/28)
+
Outlook: Le Rouge are looking in great shape to take a top-four position with clear water between themselves and both Birmingham Legion and Indy Eleven after their win against Louisville City on Sunday. This weekend’s trip out West to face Monterey Bay F.C. is important to keep their momentum going and could put the side in position to clinch a playoff berth next week pending other results in the lower half of the standings.
5. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 12-12-5, 41pts

Playoffs Odds: 81%

Projected Finish: 6th (47.9 points)
Max Points Available: 56pts

Magic Number: 14

Up Next:at PIT (9/28)
+
Outlook: Legion had Darwin Matheus to thank as it avoided becoming the first team to be shut out at home this season by Miami FC on Sunday evening. In the big picture, it’s an important win as well given the victories for Hartford, North Carolina FC and Rhode Island this weekend, but Birmingham could get dragged back into a battle if it falls against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC in one of this weekend’s biggest games.
6. Indy Eleven
Record: 11-10-7, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 80%

Projected Finish: 7th (45.9 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number: 15

Up Next: vs. MIA (9/28)
+
Outlook: Indy dropped one of the most important games of the weekend to North Carolina FC, and probably shouldn’t look over its shoulder at the form of the teams that are currently below the playoff line. At least the Boys in Blue get what’s been the cure-all for most teams this season as Miami FC comes to town on Saturday. They can’t afford anything less than all three points.
7. Rhode Island FC
Record: 9-7-13, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 81%

Projected Finish:5th (49.1 points)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: 15

Up Next: at SA (9/28)
+
Outlook: Albert Dikwa, man of the moment. The 2023 USL Championship Player of the Year delivered a crucial goal for Rhode Island FC to keep their playoff drive on track on Saturday. The side will need another good performance as it heads to face San Antonio FC, which will be desperate for all three points. RIFC is in good position with five games to go, but it can’t let up.
8. Loudoun United FC
Record: 10-11-7, 37pts

Playoffs Odds:37%

Projected Finish: 10th (41.7 points)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: 18

Up Next: at COS (9/28)
+
Outlook: Loudoun’s loss in New Mexico stung a bit, especially given results elsewhere, and this is where United’s schedule really starts to bite. Another trip out west to second-place Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC is next before a crucial visit to Hartford Athletic the following weekend.
9. Hartford Athletic
Record: 10-12-7, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 44%

Projected Finish: 9th (43.0 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at TBR (9/28)
+
Outlook: Hartford still has a lot of work to do with only five games to play, but it couldn’t have picked a better time for its longest undefeated streak in club history. Saturday’s win at Oakland has the Athletic on a seven-game undefeated streak and level on points with Loudoun United FC for eighth place. If it can maintain that on the road at the Tampa Bay Rowdies – who have lost three of their last four – things could be moving in Hartford’s direction.
10. North Carolina FC
Record: 9-10-9, 36pts

Playoffs Odds: 67%

Projected Finish: 9th (43.9 points)
Max Points Available: 54pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at ELP (9/28)
+
Outlook: North Carolina did work on Saturday night against Indy Eleven to keep itself within range of the playoff places, and with a remaining schedule that includes three teams below the playoff line in its final six games it has jumped up to being the prospective No. 8 seed in the final standings. A win in Saturday’s matinee on the road at the Western Conference’s last-placed side El Paso Locomotive FC would put some extra pressure on the other sides vying for a postseason spot to match them.
11. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 8-10-11, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 58%

Projected Finish: 11th (40.9 points)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. BHM (9/28)
+
Outlook: This was not the weekend the Hounds needed with North Carolina, Hartford and Rhode Island all winning. That’s going to put even more pressure on the Hounds to take all three points at home to Birmingham Legion FC on Saturday night and hope other results go in their favor

Mathematically Eliminated: Miami FC

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Tag(s): Features  San Antonio FC  CO Spring Switchbacks  Orange County SC  Phoenix Rising FC  Sacramento Republic FC  FC Tulsa  Charleston Battery  Louisville City FC  Pittsburgh Riverhounds  Tampa Bay Rowdies  Las Vegas Lights FC  Birmingham Legion FC  North Carolina FC  Indy Eleven  Memphis 901 FC  El Paso Locomotive FC  New Mexico United  Loudoun United FC  Hartford Athletic  Miami FC  Oakland Roots SC  Race to the Playoffs  Detroit City FC  Monterey Bay F.C.  Rhode Island FC 

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