1. New Mexico United
Record: 18-8-3, 57pts
Playoffs Odds: 100%
Projected Finish: 1st (64.5 points)
Max Points Available: 72pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at SAC (9/29)
Outlook: New Mexico’s six-point week has put it in position to clinch the No. 1 seed with victory against Sacramento Republic FC on Sunday evening. By the time kickoff arrives, it could already have earned at least a top-four position and the first home playoff game in club history with a month to go in the season.
New Mexico United Clinches a Top-Four Finish if:
1. New Mexico wins vs. Sacramento Republic FC, moves to 60pts; moves clear of Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC on maximum of 60pts via head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0-0), Sacramento's maximum drops to 59pts
2.New Mexico United draws vs. Sacramento Republic FC, moves to 58pts
AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory at Louisville City FC, maximum drops to 56pts
OR Las Vegas Lights FC fails to take victory at Phoenix Rising FC, maximum drops to 56pts
3. New Mexico United loses vs. Sacramento Republic FC, remains at 57pts
AND Memphis 901 FC fails to take victory at Louisville City FC, maximum drops to 56pts
AND Las Vegas Lights FC and Phoenix Rising FC play to a draw, Las Vegas’ maximum drops to 56pts, Phoenix’s maximum drops to 55pts
New Mexico United Clinches the West’s No. 1 seed if:
1. New Mexico United wins vs. Sacramento Republic FC, moves to 60pts; moves clear of Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC on maximum of 60pts via head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0-0), Sacramento's maximum drops to 59pts
2. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 13-10-6, 45pts
Playoffs Odds: 98%
Projected Finish: 3rd (54.5 points)
Max Points Available: 60pts
Magic Number: 5
Up Next: vs. LDN (9/28)
Outlook: The Switchbacks’ path to clinching a postseason berth this weekend became a little narrower thanks to Orange County’s victory on Wednesday night, but they can still close out a fourth consecutive postseason berth this weekend with a win at home against Loudoun United FC this Saturday should both FC Tulsa and San Antonio FC drop points in their respective contests.
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC clinches a Playoffs berth if:
1. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC wins vs. Loudoun United FC, moves to 48pts
AND - FC Tulsa fails to take victory vs. Oakland Roots SC, maximum drops to 47pts
AND - San Antonio FC fails to take victory vs. Rhode Island FC, maximum drops to 47pts
3. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 12-8-8, 44pts
Playoffs Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 2nd (56.6 points)
Max Points Available: 62pts
Magic Number: 6
Up Next: vs. NM (9/29)
Outlook: Republic FC needs to get back in the win column as it bids to take second in the West, but Orange County’s victory on Wednesday night meant the side’s path to clinching a playoff berth this weekend narrowed a little. Sacramento would need both San Antonio FC (vs. RI, 9/28) and FC Tulsa (at OAK, 9/29) to lose this weekend to open the door for Sacramento to seal its place.
Sacramento Republic FC Clinches a Playoff Berth if:
1. Sacramento Republic FC wins vs. New Mexico United, moves to 47pts
AND - FC Tulsa loses vs. Oakland Roots SC, maximum drops to 46pts
AND - San Antonio FC loses vs. Rhode Island FC, maximum drops to 46pts
4. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 12-10-7, 43pts
Playoffs Odds: 95%
Projected Finish: 4th (54.1 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 7
Up Next: at LOU (9/28)
Outlook: Memphis got a lot out of this weekend without playing thanks to both Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC and Sacramento Republic FC dropping points. It can’t quite clinch this weekend with a win against Louisville City FC – it doesn’t hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over San Antonio FC as the sides split their series and scored one goal apiece – but it’s in solid shape to be back in the postseason soon enough.
5. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 11-8-10, 43pts
Playoffs Odds: 92%
Projected Finish: 5th (50.4 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 7
Up Next: at PHX (9/28)
Outlook: The Lights took another big step toward their postseason with Saturday night’s win against Sacramento and find themselves in the same boat as Memphis. They can’t quite clinch this Saturday thanks to FC Tulsa holding the head-to-head tiebreaker between the teams but if the Lights were to win and both San Antonio and Tulsa to lose on Saturday, it’s looking like only a matter of time before that spot is wrapped up.
6. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 12-13-4, 40pts
Playoffs Odds: 86%
Projected Finish: 6th (46.6 points)
Max Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: 10
Up Next: vs. TUL (9/29)
Outlook: Oakland has built up enough playoff currency that its first three-game scoreless streak since 2021 hasn’t affected its playoff odds too much. That was aided by both Tulsa and San Antonio dropping their contests over the weekend, but it also makes this weekend important. If Oakland wins against Tulsa on Sunday night, it opens the door for others above them to clinch, but it would also put Roots right where it needs to be to join them.
7. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 9-10-9, 36pts
Playoffs Odds: 74%
Projected Finish: 7th (40.7 points)
Max Points Available: 54pts
Magic Number: 14
Up Next: vs. LV (9/28)
Outlook: Rising’s defeat against Orange County was a setback, but the side is still in a solid position with six games remaining in the campaign and a five-point cushion to the teams below the playoff line as it returns home to face Las Vegas on Saturday. Phoenix is undefeated in its last nine outings on home turf (5-0-4) and will be banking on another good performance to keep its postseason pursuit moving in the right direction.
8. Orange County SC
Record: 10-14-5, 35pts
Playoffs Odds: 61%
Projected Finish: 8th (38.4 points)
Max Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: 15
Up Next: at LV (10/5)
Outlook: How pivotal was Orange County’s victory against Phoenix Rising on Wednesday night? The 2-0 victory at Championship Soccer Stadium led by Ethan Zubak’s brace sent the side’s playoff odds from 26 percent to 61 percent overnight as the side began to build momentum and put pressure on the sides chasing it below the playoff line. OCSC will be scoreboard-watching this weekend hoping Oakland Roots, Rhode Island FC and Detroit City FC can take points off the three teams pursuing them below the playoff line.
9. FC Tulsa
Record: 7-11-10, 31pts
Playoffs Odds: 40%
Projected Finish:9th (38.2 points)
Max Points Available: 49pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at OAK (9/29)
Outlook: Orange County SC’s victory against Phoenix on Wednesday night moved OCSC ahead of Tulsa in the projected final standings, and in turn ratcheted up the pressure on Tulsa to respond this Sunday against Oakland Roots SC. With only one point from its past five outings, the Scissortails need to turn their form around fast if they’re going to sustain a playoff bid.
10. San Antonio FC
Record: 8-13-7, 31pts
Playoffs Odds: 27%
Projected Finish: 11th (36.6 points)
Max Points Available: 49pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. RI (9/28)
Outlook: San Antonio was already under the gun after its loss to Phoenix this past weekend, but Orange County SC’s victory on Wednesday night has made its home clash with Rhode Island FC that much more of a must-win. SAFC has four of its final six games at Toyota Field, but all of them come against teams currently above the playoff line, ramping up the pressure on the 2022 title-winners to keep their playoff streak alive.
11. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 7-13-9, 30pts
Playoffs Odds: 25%
Projected Finish: 10th (37.5 points)
Max Points Available: 45pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. DET (9/28)
Outlook: Following Orange County’s victory against Phoenix, Monterey Bay must make up a five-point margin with five games to play. That’s typically a tall ask – rule of thumb dictates when the number of points you need to make up is higher than your games remaining, that’s probably it – and that makes Saturday’s home game against Detroit City FC a must-win for Head Coach Jordan Stewart’s side.
12. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 5-16-7, 22pts
Playoffs Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 12th (23.1 points)
Max Points Available: 40pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. NC (9/28)
Outlook: Once again, it’s not mathematically over for Locomotive, which did well to earn a point at home against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC on Saturday, but it’s unlikely we see the sort of form over the final six games that’s going to get El Paso back into the mix for eighth place.