Based on a lot of their big numbers this season, the Tampa Bay Rowdies are one of the best teams in the USL Championship.

They rank third in the league with 45 goals. They sit fourth in the Players’ Shield race with 43 points. They’re tied for fifth in shutouts with 10 and have two of the top five goalscorers in the league in Manuel Arteaga (14 goals) and Cal Jennings (13).

And yet, the club’s current run of form – over which it has lost four of its last five games after Wednesday night’s 2-0 defeat to Birmingham Legion FC – has left the side lacking confidence, unable to find a response when things go against them.

“The six goals we’ve given up in the last two games, it comes down to desire,” said Rowdies assistant coach Nicky Law after the loss to Legion. “It’s the basics of football. Yes, confidence is low, but that shouldn’t stop you from doing the basics of football. Compete and work harder than the guy you’re going up against. If we can get back to that, then things will turn quickly for us.”

That lack of confidence isn’t automatically tied to results, although obviously that hasn’t helped. Injuries to some key players have also been part of it, including the current banged-up state of the side’s defensive corps that saw winger Blake Bodily as part of a back three in recent outings.

But where it’s been most visible is the Rowdies’ underlying numbers this season. Per Opta, Tampa Bay has the highest Expected Goals mark in the Championship at 56.47xG. It’s also above league average in Expected Goals Against, where it sits at a 30.83xGA mark.

By those metrics, the Rowdies could expect to have a Goal Differential in the +25-27 range. Instead, they’re underperforming in both areas, with 45 goals and 33 goals against for a +12 mark.

What does that look like on the field? Take Wednesday for an example. The Rowdies outshot Legion 12-3 in the first half, had eight corners to none for the hosts, and had 11 of their shots inside the Birmingham penalty area. Some sharp saves by Legion’s Matt VanOekel and one defensive lapse, however, left Stefano Pinho with a chance inside the six-yard area and the Rowdies behind at the break.

This sort of outing hasn’t been an aberration. Whether it’s been a goalkeeper coming up with a game-winning performance or the side’s finishing going sideways, the Rowdies have had games where it’s unfathomable they’d come away with nothing. That’s illustrated in American Soccer Analysis’ Expected Points metric, which allocates points based on Expected Goals in each game of the season.

In that realm, the Rowdies lead the league with a 54.6xP mark, ahead of both the Charleston Battery (54.3xP) and Louisville City FC (47.3xP).

In reality, the Rowdies are 13 points behind the Battery and 16 points behind LouCity. If they hold onto third place in the Eastern Conference, they could need to win at Patriots Points and Lynn Family Stadium to get back to the USL Championship Final instead of potentially hosting two major rivals.

The thing is, Tampa Bay’s defeated both Louisville and Charleston at home this season. They’ve also won away at New Mexico United and Sacramento Republic FC, the current top two in the West, showing the side’s ability to compete with the league's best. It’ll get shots at the Battery (Sept. 21) and LouCity (Oct. 12) on the road in two games down the stretch that will be must-sees.

The question is, what sort of state will the Rowdies be in when they get there?

“We have seven games to put it right,” said Law on Wednesday. “We have as tough a game as we can this Saturday [against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC]. I think we’re actually looking forward to it, to see what kind of reaction we can get. Against Pittsburgh, you’re gonna have to fight. You’re gonna have to do the basics. If you don’t, they’ll run all over you and make it difficult.

“We have to come with the right attitude at the weekend.”

There’s no getting away from the fact the Rowdies have become the USL Championship’s biggest enigma.

And only they will be able to find a way out.