1. Louisville City FC
Record: 19-5-2, 59pts
Playoffs Odds: 100%
Projected Finish: 1st (75.7 points)
Max Points Available: 83pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at TUL (9/14)
Outlook: LouCity is officially into the playoffs for a 10th consecutive season and its next goal isn’t far away. With a win against FC Tulsa on Saturday night it would be guaranteed a top-three spot and at least one home game in the playoffs. as it moves toward the goal of its first Players’ Shield.
Louisville City Clinches a Top-Four spot if
1. LouCity wins vs. FC Tulsa, moves to 62 points.
2. LouCity draws vs. FC Tulsa, moves to 60 points
AND Indy Eleven fails to take victory against El Paso Locomotive FC, maximum drops to at least 59pts
OR Detroit City FC fails to take victory against New Mexico United, maximum drops to at least 58pts
3. LouCity loses vs. FC Tulsa, remains on 59pts, plus two of the three following results
a. Indy Eleven loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, maximum drops to 58pt
b. Detroit City FC fails to take victory against New Mexico United, maximum drops to at least 58pts
c. Birmingham Legion FC fails to take victory against the Tampa Bay Rowdies or Loudoun United FC, maximum drops to at least 57pts
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 16-4-8, 56pts
Playoffs Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 2nd (71.1 points)
Max Points Available: 74pts
Magic Number: 2
Up Next: at COS (9/14)
Outlook: The Battery were denied clinching a playoff berth by Southern Derby rival North Carolina FC’s romp past Oakland, but they’re now within range to get over the line this weekend against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC. It could also clinch a top-four spot if other results go their way over the week as well.
Charleston Battery Clinches a Playoff Place if:
1. Charleston takes victory vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC to move to 59pts
2. Charleston draws vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks to move to 57pts; Battery move clear of NCFC on maximum of 57pts via head-to-head tiebreakers
3. Charleston loses vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC to remain on 56pts
AND – North Carolina FC fails to take victory against Memphis 901 FC on Saturday, dropping NCFC’s maximum to at least 55pts
OR – Loudoun United FC loses vs. Birmingham Legion FC, dropping Loudoun’s maximum to 55pts
OR – Rhode Island FC loses vs. Orange County SC, dropping Rhode Island’s maximum to 55pts
Charleston Battery Clinch a Top-Four Position if:
1. Charleston Battery wins vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC to move to 59pts and clear of Birmingham Legion FC on a maximum of 59pts via the head-to-head tiebreaker.
AND - Indy Eleven fails to take victory vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, maximum drops to at least 59pts; Battery hold head-to-head tiebreaker
OR – Detroit City FC fails to take victory against New Mexico United, maximum drops to at least 58pts
3. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 12-8-7, 43pts
Playoffs Odds: 87%
Projected Finish: 3rd (53.9 points)
Max Points Available: 64pts
Magic Number: 15
Up Next: vs. PIT (9/14)
Outlook: The Rowdies are struggling for results right now, although their performance against Birmingham Legion on Wednesday night probably deserved better, and that’s likely left a top-two finish out of reach. Now they need to make sure they hold onto third place, but this Saturday’s game against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC is going to be a big test.
4. Detroit City FC
Record: 10-8-9, 39pts
Playoffs Odds: 76%
Projected Finish: 5th (46.9 points)
Max Points Available: 60pts
Magic Number: 19
Up Next: vs. NM (9/14)
Outlook: Le Rouge continued to edge toward a place in the playoffs with their scoreless draw in El Paso. They’ve got a five-point cushion to the teams below the playoff line, but it could get a lot more nerve-wracking if they can’t break their home winless run when New Mexico visits this Saturday.
5. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 11-11-5, 38pts
Playoffs Odds: 74%
Projected Finish: 6th (46.5 points)
Max Points Available: 59pts
Magic Number: 20
Up Next:at LDN (9/14)
Outlook: Legion gave their playoff chances a massive boost with victory on Wednesday night against Tampa Bay but faces another key game against Loudoun United on the road this weekend. If it can pick up a six-point week, however, they could be in the top four and sitting with as much as a seven-point advantage over the teams below the playoff line.
6. Indy Eleven
Record: 10-9-7, 37pts
Playoffs Odds: 65%
Projected Finish: 8th (43.3 points)
Max Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: 21
Up Next: vs. ELP (9/14)
Outlook: Indy is still projected to be the last team into the playoffs, but the Boys in Blue could just as easily finish in the top four if it can find a run of form. Getting all three points at home against El Paso Locomotive FC on Saturday is essential, and it would also be useful if Tampa Bay, Memphis, New Mexico and Birmingham earned results as well.
7. Rhode Island FC
Record: 8-6-13, 37pts
Playoffs Odds: 76%
Projected Finish: 4th (49.8 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 21
Up Next: at OC (9/14)
Outlook: The projections still like Rhode Island’s chances a lot, but it also has a narrower road with only seven games left to play. Earning victory on the road at Orange County SC to rebound from its loss in Pittsburgh would be a good step forward, but OCSC is going to be battling hard as its playoff chances hang in the balance.
8. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 8-9-11, 35pts
Playoffs Odds: 68%
Projected Finish: 6th (46.1 points)
Max Points Available: 53pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at TBR (9/14)
Outlook: The Hounds’ 10-game undefeated streak has given them momentum as well as moving the side above the playoff line. There can’t be any letdown, though, with only six games to go. This Saturday’s game against a Tampa Bay Rowdies side that needs to find a boost could be a big test, while the Hounds would definitely benefit if Birmingham Legion and Memphis 901 FC can get results against Loudoun United and North Carolina FC respectively.
9. Loudoun United FC
Record: 9-10-7, 34pts
Playoffs Odds: 43%
Projected Finish: 10th (41.1 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 24
Up Next: vs. BHM (9/14)
Outlook: Loudoun United still controls its destiny with eight games to go but needs to earn a result at home against Birmingham Legion this Saturday on home turf. With Legion coming in after a midweek victory that boosted their postseason chances, United requires exactly the same sort of result here.
10. North Carolina FC
Record: 8-9-9, 30pts
Playoffs Odds: 50%
Projected Finish: 9th (42.7 points)
Max Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at MEM (9/14)
North Carolina revived its playoff chances with a thumping of Oakland on Saturday night and will be hoping for more of the same as it heads to Memphis 901 FC this weekend. It would also find Rhode Island dropping points to Orange County SC and the Tampa Bay Rowdies taking points off Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC very useful to its chances.
11. Hartford Athletic
Record: 8-12-7, 31pts
Playoffs Odds: 34%
Projected Finish: 11th (38.9 points)
Max Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at MIA (9/14)
Outlook: Hartford has Renan Ribeiro to thank for its point against Memphis 901 FC on Wednesday night, but that result essentially made Saturday’s visit to Miami FC a must-win. The Athletic might be undefeated in their last five outings, but they’re not going to be able to draw their way into the playoffs as their number of games remaining continues to dwindle.