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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – Aug. 31-Sept. 1

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 08/29/24, 2:30PM EDT

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Louisville City, Charleston Battery, New Mexico United moving close to postseason berths


Indy Eleven and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC square off on Saturday night in one of this weekend's key games in the playoff race. | Photo courtesy Chris Cowger / Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC

Welcome to the first edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs presented by Terminix this campaign, where we’ll provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2024 USL Championship Playoffs in November.

This weekend won’t see any teams officially clinch a postseason berth, but Louisville City FC, the Charleston Battery and New Mexico United could move to the doorstep of returning to the postseason and Miami FC could be officially eliminated from contention.

This season, we’re grateful to our friend John Morrissey at USL Tactics for providing the data for playoff projections. Now, here are some games to watch and an overview of where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Saturday, August 31
Oakland Roots SC
New Mexico United
6:00 PM
Stadium IconPioneer Stadium
Match Center

Oakland Roots SC vs. New Mexico United
Saturday, 6 p.m. ET | Pioneer Stadium

New Mexico United heads to face Oakland Roots potentially two wins away from clinching a postseason berth if things fall right elsewhere. Roots will have the chance to jump past Memphis 901 FC into third place with a victory at home, but if New Mexico picks up all three points it would be hard to envision the visitors dropping out of the top two by the end of the season.

Saturday, August 31
Indy Eleven
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
7:00 PM
Stadium IconMichael A. Carroll Stadium
Match Center

Indy Eleven vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET | Michael A. Carroll Stadium

We’ve got two six-pointers in the Eastern Conference this weekend, starting with Indy hosting the Hounds. These teams are separated by four positions and four points in the standings with the Hounds coming in off a big win and in possession of an eight-game undefeated streak. The Boys in Blue need a win to boost their top-four chances. If Pittsburgh comes away with victory, it makes the East’s playoff race even harder to call.

Saturday, August 31
Rhode Island FC
Birmingham Legion FC
7:30 PM
Stadium IconBeirne Stadium
Match Center

Rhode Island FC vs. Birmingham Legion FC
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET | Beirne Stadium

Rhode Island took victory in the first meeting as Head Coach Khano Smith got one over mentor and Legion Head Coach Tommy Soehn. With these teams separated by a point in the standings with nine games to go, if there’s a decisive result it would go a long way toward carrying the winner toward a playoff berth and a potential top-four finish.

Sunday, September 1
FC Tulsa
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
6:00 PM
Stadium IconONEOK Field
Match Center

FC Tulsa vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Sunday, 6 p.m. ET | ONEOK Field

What if we told you that based on their maximum available points, Tulsa and Colorado Springs both had a legitimate chance for a top-four finish? You can see it with the Switchbacks, especially after their midweek win against Memphis 901 FC moved them within four points of third place with two games in hand, but Tulsa’s still got 11 games to play in the remainder of the season. If someone comes out on top here, it’ll be big for their chances of a home playoff game.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. New Mexico United
Record: 15-6-3, 48pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 2nd (61.9 points)
Max Points Available: 78pts

Magic Number: 8

Up Next: at OAK (8/31)
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Outlook: New Mexico is currently projected to finish second with its two games against Sacramento Republic FC in September looming large. If it takes a win against Oakland on Saturday night, it could be in position to clinch a playoff berth when it hosts Miami FC on Sept. 6.
2. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 11-5-8, 41pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 1st (62.4 points)
Max Points Available: 71pts

Magic Number: 15

Up Next: at CHS (9/7)
+
Outlook: Republic FC is basically a lock to be back in the postseason as it goes through its bye week. Next week’s clash with the Charleston Battery should be on everyone’s calendar.
3. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 11-9-6, 39pts

Playoffs Odds: 93%

Projected Finish: 3rd (56.6 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number: 17

Up Next: vs. HFD (9/11)
+
Outlook: Memphis stumbled on Wednesday night in Colorado Springs, but things are still generally rosy for Head Coach Stephen Glass’ side. They’ll get a break next week before returning to action with home games against Hartford Athletic and North Carolina FC in Week 28.
4. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 11-10-4, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 83%

Projected Finish: 4th (48.3 points)
Max Points Available: 64pts

Magic Number: 19

Up Next: vs. NM (8/31)
+
Outlook: Oakland has two games in hand on Memphis 901 FC in third place but also has Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC and Las Vegas Lights FC queuing up behind them. Getting a result at home against first-placed New Mexico United would be huge on Saturday.
5. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 10-10-5, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 76%

Projected Finish: 6th (47.2 points)
Max Points Available: 62pts

Magic Number: 21

Up Next: at TUL (9/1)
+
Outlook: The Switchbacks’ victory against Memphis 901 FC on Wednesday night gave their chances of a top-four finish a serious boost. They need to carry that momentum forward against Tulsa on Sunday to keep the pressure on 901 FC and Oakland Roots SC.
6. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 9-8-8, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 79%

Projected Finish: 5th (48.3 points)
Max Points Available: 62pts

Magic Number: 21

Up Next: at OC (8/31)
+
Outlook: Las Vegas Lights going to the playoffs? Believe it. The Lights’ path to the postseason would open even wider if they can get another three points on the road against Orange County SC on Saturday, which could give them as much as a 10-point gap to the teams below the playoff line.
7. FC Tulsa
Record: 7-7-9, 30pts

Playoffs Odds: 68%

Projected Finish: 7th (42.4 points)
Max Points Available: 63pts

Magic Number: 26

Up Next: vs. COS (9/1)
+
Outlook: Tulsa has become the surprise package of this season and with 11 games left to play is looking at its first postseason trip since 2021. This Sunday’s game at home to Colorado Springs won’t make-or-break those chances, but a victory would add to the momentum the side has built to push it ahead of the stragglers lower down the standings.
8. Orange County SC
Record: 8-13-4, 28pts

Playoffs Odds: 36%

Projected Finish: 9th (37.0 points)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs LV (8/31)
+
Outlook: Orange County is going through a rough run of form with five games without a goal, and that projects to the side missing the postseason right now. Finding an immediate turnaround is essential this weekend against Las Vegas Lights FC while hoping for Monterey Bay F.C and others to drop points.
9. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 7-11-7, 28pt

Playoffs Odds: 56%

Projected Finish: 8th (39.7 points)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at MIA (8/31)
+
Outlook: Monterey Bay is narrowly favored to earn its first postseason berth as of now, but it’s going to be essential it takes advantage of this weekend’s game at Miami FC to keep that spot. If MBFC doesn’t take all three points on Saturday, its numbers will surely drop no matter the results elsewhere.
10. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 6-8-9, 27pts

Playoffs Odds: 33%

Projected Finish: 11th (34.9 points)
Max Points Available: 60pts

Magic Number: 29

Up Next: at LDN (8/31)
+
Outlook: The good news for Phoenix? It’s got the highest available points total of all the teams between eighth and 12th place. The bad news is the up-and-down form the side has seen has it projected as out of the playoffs. After last year’s run in the playoffs you can’t count Rising out, but it’s got to get better soon to move above the playoff line.
11. San Antonio FC
Record: 6-12-6, 24pt

Playoffs Odds: 35%

Projected Finish: 10th (36.1 points)
Max Points Available: 54pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. CHS (8/31)
+
Outlook: San Antonio is only four points out of the playoff positions, which means it’s still right there in the race. This weekend’s game against Charleston is going to be tough, though, and the SAFC attack needs to find a way to pick up the pace.
12. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 5-15-5, 20pts

Playoffs Odds: <1%

Projected Finish: 12th (26.0 points)
Max Points Available: 47pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. DET (9/7)
+
Outlook: Locomotive is more likely to be a spoiler than a contender over the final nine games of the season. After this week off, they’ll head back to work against Detroit City and hope for others to falter ahead of them.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Louisville City FC
Record: 17-5-2, 53pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 1st (71.2 points)
Max Points Available: 83pts

Magic Number: 8

Up Next: vs. NC (8/31)
+
Outlook: LouCity can’t quite clinch a playoff place this weekend at North Carolina FC, but a win would complete a sweep of the season series, effectively moving the club’s Magic Number to one point while also getting its pursuit of a historic campaign back on track.
2. Charleston Battery
Record: 15-4-7, 52pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 2nd (70.1 points)
Max Points Available: 76pts

Magic Number: 9

Up Next: vs. SA (8/31)
+
Outlook: The Battery have played two games more than LouCity but are in great position to at least finish second in the East and be in a space to take advantage in the case LouCity slips up. A win this weekend in San Antonio would move the Battery closer to clinching a playoff place, though.
3. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 12-6-7, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: 95%

Projected Finish: 3rd (61.5 points)
Max Points Available: 70pts

Magic Number: 18

Up Next: vs. COS (9/7)
+
Outlook: The Rowdies are in the position where they’re probably not going to catch the top two unless something dramatic happens – and with road games at both LouCity and Charleston in the final two months, it could – but they’re also not likely to be too threatened by the teams below them either unless something goes pretty badly wrong.
4. Detroit City FC
Record: 10-15-7, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 75%

Projected Finish: 5th (48.7 points)
Max Points Available: 64pts

Magic Number: 24

Up Next: at LDN (10/7)
+
Outlook: The race for fourth place looks intriguing with Le Rouge the current incumbent but the projections put four teams in serious contention of taking it. Detroit’s home form needs to get better as it plays host to Hartford Athletic this weekend to boost its chances of a first home playoff game in the USL Championship in November.

5. Indy Eleven
Record: 10-9-5, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 72%

Projected Finish: 7th (46.4 points)
Max Points Available: 65pts

Magic Number: 26

Up Next: at PT (8/31)
+
Outlook: After its exit from the U.S. Open Cup on Tuesday night, Indy gets thrown straight back into its playoff pursuit with a six-pointer against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC. The Boys in Blue have the highest available points total of the teams vying for fourth but hasn’t got much margin for error given the teams surrounding them.
6. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 10-10-5, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 73%

Projected Finish: 6th (48.6%)
Max Points Available: 65pts

Magic Number: 26

Up Next: vs. RI (8/31)
+
Outlook: Legion finds itself in a similar position to this time last season – sixth place in the standings, one fewer point, looking good for a playoff spot – but this weekend’s game with Rhode Island FC is going to be key as to whether it can find a push for a fourth-place finish.
7. Rhode Island FC
Record: 7-5-13, 34pts

Playoffs Odds: 73%.

Projected Finish: 4th (49.1 points)
Max Points Available: 61pts

Magic Number: 27

Up Next: vs. BHM (8/31)
+
Outlook: Rhode Island is on course to become the first true expansion team to reach the USL Championship Playoffs in its inaugural season since 2019, and the projections have it earning a home playoff game as well. Getting a win at home to Birmingham Legion FC this weekend would only increase those odds.
8. Loudoun United FC
Record: 9-8-7, 34pts

Playoffs Odds: 56%

Projected Finish: 9th (43.4 points)
Max Points Available: 64pts

Magic Number: 27

Up Next: vs. PHX (8/31)
+
Outlook: Loudoun United is also gunning for its first postseason berth but is currently projected to be pipped at the post by Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC. Their meeting next weekend will be crucial, but so is getting a result at home this Saturday against Phoenix Rising FC, which is scoreless in its last four outings.
9. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 7-9-10, 31pts

Playoffs Odds: 57%

Projected Finish: 8th (43.9 points)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at IND (8/31)
+
Outlook: The Hounds have momentum with an eight-game undefeated streak. What they don’t have is much margin for error. With only eight games to go – fewer than any of the teams they’re chasing – it makes winning at Indy Eleven this weekend essential while also hoping Loudoun United FC and Rhode Island FC find a way to drop points.
10. North Carolina FC
Record: 7-8-9, 30pts

Playoffs Odds: 39%

Projected Finish: 10th (38.5 points)
Max Points Available: 60pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. LOU (8/31)
+
Outlook: North Carolina has the biggest task this weekend at home to Louisville City FC, but the games the side must win to get above the playoff line are going to come further down the stretch. If you’re an NCFC fan, you probably should be rooting for Indy, Birmingham and Phoenix this weekend.
11. Hartford Athletic
Record: 8-12-4, 28pts

Playoffs Odds: 33%

Projected Finish: 11th (36.3 points)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. DET (8/31)
+
Outlook: Is it probably too late for Hartford to make a late run into their second playoff berth in club history? Yes, but the optimism last week’s win against Louisville City generated is something to build on. If the Athletic can go into Keyworth Stadium and add another three points, who knows what might happen.
12. Miami FC
Record: 2-21-2, 8pts

Playoffs Odds: 1%

Projected Finish: 12th (10.2%)
Max Points Available: 35pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at MB (8/31)
+
Outlook: If Miami fails to win this weekend, it will be officially eliminated from playoff contention. There’s a chance it could also happen even if it snaps a 17-game winless streak and picks up all three points against Monterey Bay F.C., but that’s the result everyone else around the playoff line out West would love to see.

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Tag(s): Features  San Antonio FC  CO Spring Switchbacks  Orange County SC  Phoenix Rising FC  Sacramento Republic FC  FC Tulsa  Charleston Battery  Louisville City FC  Pittsburgh Riverhounds  Tampa Bay Rowdies  Las Vegas Lights FC  Birmingham Legion FC  North Carolina FC  Indy Eleven  Memphis 901 FC  El Paso Locomotive FC  New Mexico United  Loudoun United FC  Hartford Athletic  Miami FC  Oakland Roots SC  Detroit City FC  Monterey Bay F.C.  Rhode Island FC 

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