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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – Oct. 13-14

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 10/12/23, 5:55PM EDT

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The final three playoff berths are up for grabs, and so is positioning up and down the conferences


Oakland Roots SC and El Paso Locomotive FC will square off in one of this weekend's decisive games in the Western Conference playoff race. | Photo courtesy Ivan Pierre Aguirre / El Paso Locomotive FC

Welcome to the final edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs, in which we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2023 USL Championship Playoffs in October.

There are three playoff berths still available, including numerous permutations as to whether a team will be in or out of the playoff field as of Saturday night, but there’s plenty more to keep an eye on as the final seedings for the postseason are set, particularly in the top four of the Western Conference.

Here are four games to keep an eye on, and where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Friday, October 13

New Mexico brings momentum into its home finale with consecutive victories, and with a win here it would secure a postseason berth for the fourth time in five seasons. Memphis, meanwhile, just needs a draw to earn a top-four finish in the Eastern Conference, but 901 FC will have plenty of teams below the playoff line hoping it can pick up all three points to open the playoff race wide open for Saturday night.

Saturday, October 14

Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC has locked up the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference as it faces a Detroit City FC side that needs at least a draw – if not a win – to see its playoff chances stretch later into Saturday night when Miami FC kicks off against Sacramento Republic FC. Le Rouge would visit the Hounds if they get into the playoffs, though, which means Pittsburgh might want to ward against letting their potential postseason foe get any additional confidence.

Saturday, October 14

Monterey Bay F.C. must take victory to have a chance of reaching the playoffs. Orange County SC could move as high as second place if it takes all three points on the road, which could lead to an attacking game with both teams with little to lose otherwise.

Saturday, October 14

Separated by two points in the standings, but either side of the playoffs line, ninth-placed Oakland Roots SC and seventh-placed El Paso Locomotive FC know a win gets them into the postseason. Locomotive FC could settle for a draw, too, but this game should go all the way to the final whistle on the final day of the regular season and has the potential for plenty of drama.

STANDINGS

Western

1. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 17-6-10, 61pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 1st (100%)
Max Points Available: 64pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. MIA (10/14)
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Republic FC locked up the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference last Saturday night with its win against Rio Grande Valley FC, but it still has a major role to play in the playoff race before it kicks off the postseason. Playing host to Miami FC, which will know what it needs to remain ahead of Detroit City FC for the final playoff berth in the East, Republic FC could do Le Rouge a big favor with a win against the South Florida side.
2. San Antonio FC
Record: 14-6-13, 55pt

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 2nd (62%)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number:N/A

Up Next: vs. IND (10/14)
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Outlook: San Antonio FC is guaranteed a home game and is still favored to be the No. 2 seed in the west, but it can only guarantee that spot with a win at home to Indy Eleven in its final game of the regular season. A draw would open the door for both San Diego Loyal SC and Orange County SC – both one point behind SAFC – to move ahead of with a win in their final respective games.
3. Orange County SC
Record:16-11-6, 54pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 3rd (49%)
Max Points Available: 57pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at MB (10/14)
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Orange County guaranteed itself a home game thanks to its victory against San Antonio FC and Phoenix Rising FC’s loss to New Mexico United. Now OCSC has a chance to claim the No. 2 seed if it takes victory on the road against Monterey Bay F.C. this Saturday should SAFC fail to close the regular season with a win. If both Orange County and San Diego Loyal SC end even on points, OCSC holds the head-to-head tiebreaker between the clubs (1-1-0, +1GD) to give it the edge in a two-way scenario.

Should Orange County, San Antonio FC and San Diego Loyal end in a three-way tie on points, however, OCSC would drop to fourth on the points-per-game against In-Conference opposition tiebreaker, where San Antonio FC sits at a 1.81ppg mark and SD Loyal enters its final game with a 1.48ppg mark, already clear of OCSC’s 1.29 mark with one game remaining.
4. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 15-9-9, 54pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 4th (47%)
Max Points Available: 57pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at LV (10/14)
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San Diego Loyal SC will get at least one more game in front of its home fans at Torero Stadium, and could rise to the No. 2 seed if other things fall their way in the final game of the regular season. With OCSC holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over SD Loyal, and San Antonio holding the points-per-game vs. In-Conference opponents over the side after both of their regular season games ended in draws, San Diego would need to beat Las Vegas and hope that both San Antonio and Orange County drop points in their final games to end in second.

If all three teams finish on 55 points, however, San Diego would shift into third place ahead of OCSC on PPG vs. In-Conference opposition, currently sitting with 31pts and a 1.48ppg mark to Orange County’s 27pts and 1.29ppg mark.
5. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 15-13-5, 50pts

Playoffs Odds:Clinched

Projected Finish: 5th (63%)
Max Points Available: 53pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next:vs. PHX (10/14)
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Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC can’t quite bridge the gap to the top four after its win against Las Vegas Lights FC, but it can preserve its No. 5 seed as it plays host to Phoenix Rising FC on Saturday night. A win or a draw would be good enough to hold the position, while a defeat would drop the side a slot to sixth place.
6. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 12-9-12, 48pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 6th (74%)
Max Points Available: 51pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at COS (10/14)
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Phoenix Rising FC dropped into sixth place after its loss at home to New Mexico United last Saturday night, and now visits the only team it can jump in the standings to end with the No. 5 seed for the postseason in Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC. Phoenix must win to move up, and then will wait to see where it’s heading to start the playoffs.
7. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 12-13-8, 44pts

Playoffs Odds: 64%

Projected Finish: 7th (44%)
Max Points Available: 47pts

Magic Number: 2

Up Next:at OAK (10/14)
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El Paso Locomotive FC remained in the middle of the playoff race after its defeat to Memphis 901 FC last weekend but knows it will get it with either a win or a draw against Oakland Roots SC on Saturday. That could be a big task – Oakland also knows it’s in with a win – and if El Paso loses, it opens up a big potential trapdoor for others to jump past it. That makes this the game with the arguably highest stakes of any this weekend.
    El Paso Locomotive FC Playoff Clinching Scenario
  • 1. El Paso Locomotive FC wins vs. Oakland Roots SC, moves to 47pts
  • - El Paso Locomotive FC moves clear of Oakland Roots SC, Monterey Bay F.C.
  • 2.El Paso Locomotive FC draws vs. Oakland Roots SC, moves to 45pts
  • - Oakland Roots SC ends on 43pts, El Paso Locomotive FC moves clear of Monterey Bay F.C. on maximum available total of 44pts
  • 3.El Paso Locomotive FC loses vs. Oakland Roots SC, remains on 44pts
  • - AND New Mexico United loses vs. Memphis 901 FC, ends on 43pts
  • - AND Monterey Bay F.C. draws/loses vs. Orange County SC, ends on 42/41pts
8. New Mexico United
Record: 12-14-7, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: 69%

Projected Finish: 8th (40%)
Max Points Available: 46pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. MEM (10/13)
+
New Mexico United had everything go its way last weekend. Not only did it win against Phoenix Rising FC on the road, but it was the only team to gain points in the lower half of the Western Conference. That means New Mexico can clinch a postseason berth on Friday night against Memphis 901 FC – which also will be looking to win to secure a top-four finish – if the hosts take victory. A draw or a loss will launch a nervous night of scoreboard watching.

    New Mexico United Playoff Clinching Scenarios
      1. New Mexico United wins vs. Memphis 901 FC, moves to 46pts
    • - New Mexico United moves clear of Oakland Roots SC, Monterey Bay F.C., Rio Grande Valley FC
    • 2.New Mexico United draws vs. Memphis 901 FC, moves to 44pts
    • - AND El Paso Locomotive FC loses vs. Oakland Roots SC, ends on 44pts – head-to-head tiebreaker inapplicable (1-1-0, even goal differential) – New Mexico takes tiebreaker on PPG In-Conference (New Mexico 1.14, El Paso 1.09)
    • - OR Oakland Roots SC draws/loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 43/42pts
    • - AND Monterey Bay F.C. draws/loses vs. Orange County SC, ends on 42/41pts
    • - AND Oakland Roots SC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, ends on 42pts
    • - AND Monterey Bay F.C. draws/loses vs. Orange County SC, ends on 42/41pts
    • - AND Rio Grande Valley FC draws/loses vs. Loudoun United FC, ends on 41/40pts
9. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 11-13-9, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: 46%

Projected Finish: 7th (28%)
Max Points Available: 45pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. ELP (10/14
+
Oakland Roots SC dropped below the playoff line last weekend with its defeat to San Diego Loyal SC, but could pull off the ultimate redemption in its regular season home finale against El Paso Locomotive FC. With a win, Roots SC would jump past El Paso and into the playoffs without needing any additional help. If the game ends up a draw, however, Oakland would need a good amount of help to get back above the line.

    Oakland Roots SC Playoff Clinching Scenarios
      1. Oakland Roots SC wins vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, moves to 45pts
    • - Oakland Roots SC moves clear of El Paso Locomotive FC, Monterey Bay F.C. and Rio Grande Valley FC
    • 2.Oakland Roots SC draws vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, moves to 43pts
    • - AND New Mexico United loses vs. Memphis 901 FC, remains on 43pts – Oakland Roots SC holds head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0-0)
    • - AND Monterey Bay F.C. draws/loses vs. Orange County SC, ends on 42/41pts
    • - AND Rio Grande Valley FC draws/loses vs. Loudoun United FC, ends on 41/40pts
10. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 11-14-8, 41pt

Playoffs Odds: 14%

Projected Finish: 11th (45%)
Max Points Available: 44pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. OC (10/14)
+
Monterey Bay F.C. is facing a win and get a lot of help situation as it hosts Orange County SC. The good news for MBFC is it holds the head-to-head tiebreakers over both New Mexico United and El Paso Locomotive FC should it end up in a two-way or three-way tie on 44pts, but it has to win to have any chance.

    Monterey Bay F.C. Playoff Clinching Scenario
      1. Monterey Bay F.C. wins vs. Orange County SC, moves to 44pts
    • - ANDNew Mexico United draws/loses vs. Memphis 901 FC, moves to 44/43pts – Monterey Bay F.C. holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-1-0, +1GD)
    • - AND Oakland Roots SC draws/loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, moves to 43/42pts
    • - OR El Paso Locomotive FC loses vs. Oakland Roots SC, remains on 44pts – Monterey Bay F.C. holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
11. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 9-11-13, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 7%

Projected Finish: 11th (40%)
Max Points Available: 43pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. LDN (10/7)
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The Toros are in the last-chance saloon, but at least they have what’s on paper a winnable game. Beat Loudoun United FC and see what happens, but in reality RGV FC’s hopes could be dashed by the end of Friday night pending New Mexico United’s result.

    Rio Grande Valley FC
    1. Rio Grande Valley FC wins vs. Loudoun United FC, moves to 43pts
  • - ANDNew Mexico United loses vs. Memphis 901 FC, remains on 43pts – head-to-head tiebreaker inapplicable (0-0-2), New Mexico holds PPG vs. In-Conference Opponents (1.27ppg vs. 1.14ppg)
  • - AND Oakland Roots SC loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, remains on 42pts
  • - AND Monterey Bay F.C. draws/loses vs. Orange County SC, ends on 42/41pts

Eliminated: Las Vegas Lights FC


Eastern

1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 18-5-9, 63pts

Playoffs Odds: Cliched

Projected Finish: 1st (70%)
Max Points Available: 69pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at TBR (10/7)
+
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC has its first silverware of the USL Championship era, but it still has a game that matters this weekend as it visits Detroit City FC. Le Rouge could claim the final playoff berth in the Eastern Conference – and with it a trip to Highmark Stadium next weekend – if they can get a win or a draw and see Miami FC slip up later in the night. We’ll see how the Hounds play this with the chance to get to 20 wins in the regular season.
2. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 18-8-6, 60pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 2nd (61%)
Max Points Available: 66pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. PIT (10/7)
+
The Tampa Bay Rowdies can’t win the Players’ Shield, but they are locked into the No. 2 seed in the East thanks to the Charleston Battery’s loss last weekend to Miami FC. So, now it’s just about putting in a good performance on the road against Louisville City FC to build momentum for that playoff opener.
3. Charleston Battery
Record: 16-8-8, 56pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 3rd (91%)
Max Points Available: 62pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. MIA (10/7)
+
The Charleston Battery are locked into the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, but will want to put in a good performance after suffering consecutive defeats in the league for the first time this season. Deny Birmingham victory, and it would ensure that Legion FC doesn’t come back to Patriots Point next weekend as well.
4. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 13-9-10, 49pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 5th (58%)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. ELP (10/7)
+
Memphis 901 FC can lock up the No. 4 seed in the postseason with a draw against New Mexico United as it holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over fifth-placed Louisville City FC with a 1-0-1 record in their series. If it falls in New Mexico on Friday night – not out of the question, given that would clinch New Mexico a playoff berth – then it would need the Tampa Bay Rowdies to take points off LouCity on Saturday to remain in its current position.

Memphis Home Playoff Game Clinching Scenario
  • 1. Memphis 901 FC wins vs. New Mexico United, moves to 55pts
  • - Moves clear of Louisville City FC on 53 maximum available points
  • 2. Memphis 901 FC draws vs. New Mexico United, moves to 53pts
  • - Moves clear of Louisville City FC on 53 maximum available points – Memphis holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
  • 3. Memphis 901 FC loses vs. New Mexico United, remains on 52pts
  • AND Louisville City FC loses/draws vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies, ends on 51/50pts
5. Louisville City FC
Record: 14-11-7, 49pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 4th (67%)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. HFD (10/7)
+
Louisville City FC must win against the Tampa Bay Rowdies on Saturday night and have Memphis 901 FC lose to New Mexico United on Friday to clinch the No. 4 seed in the playoffs, with Memphis holding the head-to-head tiebreaker between the two clubs should they both end on 53pts. If Louisville loses, meanwhile, it could get jumped by Indy Eleven should the Boys in Blue take victory at San Antonio FC.

Louisville City FC Home Playoff Game Clinching Scenario
  • 1. Louisville City FC wins vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies, moves to 53pts
  • AND Memphis 901 FC loses vs. New Mexico United, remains on 52pts
6. Indy Eleven
Record: 12-11-9, 45pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 6th (66%)
Max Points Available: 51pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at TUL (10/7)
+
Indy Eleven ruined one teams postseason chances last weekend by defeating FC Tulsa, and now heads to San Antonio FC with a chance to do both Orange County SC and San Diego Loyal SC a major favor if they can pick up a result. The only way for Indy to improve its position, however, is to win and hope that Louisville City FC loses against the Tampa Bay Rowdies, with LouCity holding the tiebreaker between the clubs after sweeping the LIPAFC this campaign.
7. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 13-15-4, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 7th (77%)
Max Points Available: 49pts

Magic Number: 1

Up Next: vs. MB (10/8)
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Having clinched its playoff berth, Birmingham Legion FC gets a chance to determine its playoff foe this weekend when it visits the Charleston Battery. If Legion FC wins against Charleston to move to 49pts and Indy Eleven loses on the road against San Antonio FC later on Saturday night, Birmingham would head back to Patriots Point to open the playoffs next weekend.
8. Miami FC
Record: 10-14-8, 38pts

Playoffs Odds: 38%

Projected Finish: 9th (39%)
Max Points Available: 44pts

Magic Number: 6

Up Next: at CHS (10/7)
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Miami FC’s second comeback victory in its current four-game winning streak kept it in position to clinch a playoff berth this weekend. It also has the advantage of knowing what it has to do with ninth-placed Detroit City FC kicking off the day’s action well before Miami has to face Sacramento Republic FC. Effectively, Miami just has to match Detroit’s result against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC. If that turns out needing to be a win at Heart Health Park, though, it’s going to be a fascinating 90 minutes.

Miami FC Clinching Scenario
  • 1. Miami FC wins vs. Sacramento Republic FC, moves to 44pts
  • -Miami moves clear of Detroit City FC on maximum available total of 43pts
  • 2. Miami FC draws vs. Sacramento Republic FC, moves to 42pts
  • - AND Detroit City FC draws/loses vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
  • 3. Miami FC loses vs. Sacramento Republic FC, remains on 41pts
  • - AND Detroit City FC loses vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
9. Detroit City FC
Record: 10-15-7, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 37%

Projected Finish: 8th (37%)
Max Points Available: 43pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at LDN (10/7)
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Detroit City FC remained a point behind Miami FC after last week’s results, essentially meaning Le Rouge could need to take victory at home to Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC on Saturday and then hope the result goes their way when Miami visits Sacramento Republic FC later in the night. The one additional glimmer of hope for DCFC is it holds the tiebreaker over Miami, so in the case of a draw for Detroit and a loss for Miami, Le Rouge would move into the final playoff position and head to Highmark Stadium next weekend.
  • 1. Detroit City FC wins vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, moves to 43pts
  • - AND Miami FC draws/loses vs. Sacramento Republic FC, Miami ends on 42/41pts
  • 2. Detroit City FC draws vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, moves to 41pts
  • - AND Miami FC loses vs. Sacramento Republic FC, Miami ends on 41pts – Detroit City FC holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)

Eliminated: FC Tulsa, Loudoun United FC, Hartford Athletic

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