1. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 16-6-10, 58pts
Playoffs Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (95%)
Max Points Available: 64pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at RGV (10/7)
Sacramento Republic FC put itself in position to clinch top spot in the Western Conference on Saturday night after its comfortable victory against Las Vegas Lights FC last time out. Holding a three-point lead and the head-to-head tiebreaker over San Antonio FC, a win would secure first place in the West. Republic FC will also be hoping the Tampa Bay Rowdies can beat Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC on Saturday, which would keep the door open for the Players’ Shield on the final day of the season.
2. San Antonio FC
Record: 14-5-13, 55pts
Playoffs Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (80%)
Max Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number:N/A
Up Next: at OC (10/7)
San Antonio FC is going to need a lot of help to take first place after its draw with Oakland Roots SC given Sacramento Republic FC holds the head-to-head tiebreaker between the sides, but it will be rooting for Roots SC to take points off Orange County SC on Wednesday night before SAFC heads to Championship Soccer Stadium on Saturday night. An OCSC win would set up a fascinating rematch from last month’s opening game of the series between the sides this season.
3. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 14-9-8, 50pts
Playoffs Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 3rd (47%)
Max Points Available: 59pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at ELP (10/4), vs. OAK (10/7)
San Diego Loyal SC earned its postseason berth against Monterey Bay F.C. last time out behind Ronaldo Damus’ hat trick but would do Monterey Bay and the other teams below the line a major favor if it can take victory on the road against El Paso Locomotive FC. A win for the visitors at Southwest University Park would move San Diego within two points of San Antonio FC for second place, and closer to securing a top-four finish and home playoff game.
4. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 12-8-12, 48pts
Playoffs Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 6th (34%)
Max Points Available: 54pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. NM (10/7)
Emil Cuello’s stunning finish sent Phoenix Rising FC back to the playoffs against Orange County SC on Saturday night, but now it will have to wait and see if it gets help to stay in the top four on Wednesday night. Rising FC supporters will be hoping for El Paso Locomotive FC and Oakland Roots SC to take victory against San Diego Loyal SC and Orange County in their games in hand.
5. Orange County SC
Record:14-11-6, 48pts
Playoffs Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 4th (34%)
Max Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: 1
Up Next: vs. OAK (10/4), vs. SA
Orange County can clinch its postseason berth on Wednesday night with a win, a draw, or even a loss should Rio Grande Valley FC fail to take victory against Hartford Athletic earlier in the night. The hosts will be looking to break a four-game winless streak as they face Oakland Roots SC, however, which would significantly boost their chances of ending in the top four.
Orange County SC Playoff Clinching Scenario
- - Orange County SC wins vs. Oakland Roots SC, moves to 51 points
- - Orange County moves clear of Rio Grande Valley FC on maximum available total of 48pts
- -Orange County SC draws vs. Oakland Roots SC, moves to 49 points
- - Orange County moves clear of Rio Grande Valley FC on maximum available total of 48pts
- - Orange County SC loses vs. Oakland Roots SC, remains on 48pts
- - AND Rio Grande Valley FC draws/loses to Hartford Athletic, maximum available total drops to 46/45pts
6. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 14-13-5, 47pts
Playoffs Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 6th (36%)
Max Points Available: 53pts
Magic Number: 2
Up Next:at LV (10/7)
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC isn’t in action on Wednesday night but can still clinch a playoff berth if Rio Grande Valley FC fails to take victory against Hartford Athletic as it already holds the head-to-head tiebreaker with Monterey Bay F.C. with a +3-goal differential after the sides split the series. If the Toros win, the Switchbacks will face Las Vegas Lights FC on Saturday to close out the job.
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC Clinching Scenario
- - Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC is idle and remains on 47pts
- - Rio Grande Valley FC draws/loses vs. Hartford Athletic, maximum available total drops to 46/45pts
- - Switchbacks sit clear of Monterey Bay F.C. (maximum available total: 47) holding head-to-head tiebreaker (1-1-0, +3GD).
7. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 12-12-7, 43pts
Playoffs Odds: 81%
Projected Finish: 7th (41%)
Max Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: 6
Up Next: vs. SD (10/4), at MEM (10/7)
El Paso Locomotive FC was arguably the biggest winner of the teams around the playoff line, boosting its playoff chances by more than 20 percent by defeating the Charleston Battery thanks to results elsewhere. Locomotive FC can’t quite clinch a playoff berth on Wednesday night due to Monterey Bay F.C. not being in action, but it would move to the verge of securing a playoff berth if it takes all three points at home to San Diego Loyal SC.
8. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 11-11-9, 42pts
Playoffs Odds: 69%
Projected Finish: 8th (34%)
Max Points Available: 51pts
Magic Number: 7
Up Next: at OC (10/4), at SD (10/7)
Oakland Roots SC was so close to knocking off San Antonio FC on Saturday night, but thanks to Monterey Bay F.C.’s loss it remains above the playoff line and favored to reach the playoffs. This is going to be a tricky week on the road, but a win at Orange County SC would give Roots SC a four-point cushion with two games to go. Anyone would like the odds of securing a playoff berth in that scenario.
9. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 11-13-8, 41pts
Playoffs Odds: 28%
Projected Finish: 9th (31%)
Max Points Available: 47pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at BHM (10/8)
Monterey Bay F.C. and its fans will be all-in behind San Diego Loyal SC and Orange County SC on Wednesday night to keep El Paso Locomotive FC and Oakland Roots SC from widening their advantage going into the weekend. The club’s current three-game winless run couldn’t have come at a less opportune moment.
10. New Mexico United
Record: 11-14-7, 40pts
Playoffs Odds: 16%
Projected Finish: 10th (34%)
Max Points Available: 46pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at PHX (10/7)
New Mexico United got the win it had to have against Louisville City FC on Saturday, but still needs plenty of help to make the postseason field. Defeats for both El Paso Locomotive FC and Oakland Roots SC on Wednesday night are the next stop in that pathway before a huge clash at Phoenix Rising FC this weekend.
11. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 9-10-12, 39pts
Playoffs Odds: 12%
Projected Finish: 11th (57%)
Max Points Available: 48pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at HFD (10/4), vs. SAC (10/7)
Thanks to Taylor Davila’s remarkable late equalizer against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, the Toros have the highest ceiling when it comes to available points of the teams below the playoff line. They’re going to have to win on the road against Hartford Athletic and hope Oakland Roots SC and El Paso Locomotive FC stumble for it to open the door a little wider, though.