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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – Sept. 23-24

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 09/21/23, 5:30PM EDT

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Five playoff berths, potential top-four finishes at stake in weekend’s action


Monterey Bay F.C. and Oakland Roots SC square off on Saturday night in the biggest game the NorCal clubs will have played in the short history of their rivalry. | Photo courtesy Monterey Bay F.C.

Welcome to the latest edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs, in which we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2023 USL Championship Playoffs in October.

Five teams could clinch their playoff berths this weekend – some without help, some with – but there’s also the chance that top-four positions could also be claimed in both the Eastern and Western Conferences, locking in home playoff games for multiple clubs for the opening weekend of the playoffs.

Here are four games to keep an eye on, and where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Saturday, September 23
Charleston Battery
FC Tulsa
7:30 PM
Stadium IconPatriots Point
Match Center

The Charleston Battery and FC Tulsa both have everything to play for on Saturday night, with the chance the Battery could secure a top-four finish should other results go their way – see below for how that can happen – and FC Tulsa playing for its playoff life as Detroit City FC hosts Hartford Athletic at the same time. High stakes usually produce high drama. We could see that here.

Saturday, September 23
San Antonio FC
Orange County SC
8:30 PM
Stadium IconToyota Field
Match Center

San Antonio FC can lock up its playoff place and feel secure about earning a top-two finish if it can break a six-game winless streak against third-place Orange County SC on home turf. This is the first of two meetings between these sides in the final four weeks of the season, however, and if Orange County comes through with victory on the road – reducing its deficit to one point with a game in hand – it opens the door for OCSC to usurp SAFC in the final standings.

Saturday, September 23
El Paso Locomotive FC
Phoenix Rising FC
9:30 PM
Stadium IconSouthwest University Park
Match Center

After Wednesday night’s drama, the margins between the sides competing to either be in the Western Conference playoff field, or to secure a top-four berth, are both incredibly narrow. If El Paso Locomotive FC wins at home, it will be above the playoff line at the end of the night thanks to the meeting of Oakland Roots SC and Monterey Bay F.C., but Phoenix Rising FC is going to be just as eager for all three points. A victory could clinch Rising FC its return to the postseason pending the result between Monterey Bay F.C. and Oakland Roots SC, but would be massive in its pursuit of a home game to start the playoffs.

Saturday, September 23
Oakland Roots SC
Monterey Bay F.C.
10:00 PM
Stadium IconPioneer Stadium
Match Center

Oakland Roots SC and Monterey Bay F.C. have started to stoke a good NorCal rivalry in the last two seasons, but this game is without question the most important the sides have played against each other so far. Level on points in the middle of the playoff battle, if Oakland takes victory it would be another crushing blow for Monterey Bay after the latter’s midweek defeat to San Diego Loyal SC. If Monterey Bay rebounds for victory here, though, then Oakland would be on a five-game losing streak, and could be below the playoff line should El Paso Locomotive FC take victory against Phoenix Rising FC.

STANDINGS

Western

1. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 15-5-10, 55pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 1st (89%)
Max Points Available: 67pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at COS (9/23)
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Sacramento Republic FC dropped points in its bid to claim the Players’ Shield on Wednesday night with a scoreless draw against New Mexico United, but it’s still in strong position to finish on top of the Western Conference with a four-point lead over San Antonio FC with four games to go. Clinching a top-four position – and home game to open the playoffs – is achievable as well this weekend, pending Phoenix Rising FC's result.

Sacramento Republic FC Clinching Scenarios
  • - Sacramento Republic FC wins vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, moves to 58pts
  • - Sacramento moves clear of Phoenix Rising FC on maximum available total of 58pts – Sacramento holds tiebreaker (1-1-0, +3GD)
  • -Sacramento Republic FC draws vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, moves to 56pts
  • -AND Phoenix Rising FC draws/loses vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, dropping maximum available total to 56/55pts – Sacramento holds tiebreaker (1-1-0, +3GD)
2. San Antonio FC
Record: 13-5-12, 51pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 2nd (47%)
Max Points Available: 63pts

Magic Number: 2

Up Next: vs. OC (9/23)
+


San Antonio FC Clinching Scenario
  • - San Antonio FC wins vs. Orange County SC, moves to 54pts
  • - San Antonio moves clear of Monterey Bay F.C. (maximum available points: 52)
  • - San Antonio FC draws vs. Orange County SC, moves to 52pts
  • - San Antonio moves clear of Monterey Bay F.C. with maximum available total of 52pts – San Antonio holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)
  • - San Antonio FC loses vs. Orange County SC, remains on 51pts
  • - AND Monterey Bay F.C. draws/loses vs. Oakland Roots SC, dropping maximum available total to 50/49pts.
  • - OR El Paso Locomotive FC loses vs. Phoenix Rising FC, dropping maximum available total to 51pts – San Antonio holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1
3. Orange County SC
Record:14-10-5, 47pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 4th (28%)
Max Points Available: 62pts

Magic Number: 6

Up Next: at SA (9/23)
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Orange County can clinch its playoff berth on Saturday night if Monterey Bay F.C. also loses to Oakland Roots SC, but the top-three clash against San Antonio FC is much more important for OCSC when it comes to determining the final seeding for the postseason. This is the first of two meetings between OCSC and San Antonio in the final stretch of the season, and if Orange County can drop the gap to one point with a win on the road here, it could dramatically change the odds of where each side might end the season.

Orange County SC Playoff Clinching Scenario
  • - Orange County SC wins vs. San Antonio FC, moves to 50pts
  • - AND Monterey Bay F.C. loses to Oakland Roots SC, maximum available total drops to 49pts
  • - AND Rio Grande Valley FC draws/loses vs. Indy Eleven, maximum available total drops to 48/47pts
4. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 13-9-7, 46pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 3rd (35%)
Max Points Available: 61pts

Magic Number: 7

Up Next: vs. LV (9/24)
+
San Diego Loyal SC not only gained a massive confidence boost from its comeback victory via Xavi Gnaulati’s heroics on Wednesday night, it positioned itself for a top-three finish in the West. SD Loyal now sits in fourth with a game in hand on Phoenix Rising FC, and while it can’t quite clinch a playoff spot this weekend, a draw between San Antonio FC and Orange County SC on Saturday night would open the door for San Diego to move into the top three at the end of the weekend with a win at home to Las Vegas Lights FC, and put San Antonio within striking distance.
5. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 12-8-10, 46pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 5th (36%)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number: 7

Up Next: at ELP (9/23)
+
It’s remarkable how a single goal can change an outlook at this time of year. Going into stoppage time against Indy Eleven, Phoenix Rising FC was in third place in the Western Conference standings until Adrian Diz Pe’s late equalizer grabbed a 1-1 draw for the Boys in Blue. Unlike San Diego, however, Phoenix can clinch a playoff berth on Saturday night if it takes victory against El Paso Locomotive FC should Monterey Bay F.C. fall to Oakland Roots SC, which would move Rising FC clear due to its head-to-head tiebreaker against MBFC.

Phoenix Rising FC Playoff Clinching Scenario
  • - Phoenix Rising FC takes victory vs. El Paso Locomotive FC, moves to 49pts
  • - AND Monterey Bay F.C. loses vs. Oakland Roots SC, maximum available total drops to 49pts – Phoenix holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1
  • - AND Rio Grande Valley FC draws/loses vs. Indy Eleven, maximum available total drops to 48/47pts
  • - AND New Mexico United draws/loses vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, maximum available total drops to 47/46pts
6. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 12-13-4, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 89%

Projected Finish: 6th (30%)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: 13

Up Next: vs. SAC (9/23)
+
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC saw its playoff chances tick up a fraction thanks to San Diego Loyal SC’s victory against Monterey Bay F.C. on Wednesday night, but the side is going to need to try and find a result against Sacramento Republic FC on Saturday to maintain those odds. A victory at home plus a Phoenix Rising FC victory against El Paso Locomotive FC and a draw between Oakland Roots SC and Monterey Bay F.C. would probably suit the Switchbacks best, allowing them to take sole possession of sixth place while their three main rivals for the last three playoff spots out West all drop points.
7. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 11-11-7, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 78%

Projected Finish: 7th (26%)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: 13

Up Next: vs. MB (9/23)
+
Saturday night’s home game against Monterey Bay F.C. is arguably the biggest of the final stretch for Oakland Roots SC. Should they win, it would provide a three-point cushion plus a game in hand on their NorCal rivals in the race for a berth in the postseason. If Roots SC loses, and sees both El Paso Locomotive FC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC earn results at home, the upcoming schedule of three consecutive games against top four opposition (San Antonio, Orange County, and San Diego) becomes a really daunting task.
8. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 11-12-7, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 47%

Projected Finish: 9th (27%)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at OAK (9/23)
+
It was there for Monterey Bay F.C. on Wednesday night against San Diego Loyal SC, and then it was grabbed away at the last, and left MBFC in need of a massive rebound display this weekend. With one game fewer to play than all three of Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, Oakland Roots SC and El Paso Locomotive FC, Monterey Bay is the team now considered by the numbers as the one to miss out on the playoffs. A victory away at Oakland and victories for Sacramento Republic FC at Colorado Springs, and Phoenix Rising FC at El Paso could very quickly change that equation.
9. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 11-12-6, 39pts

Playoffs Odds: 61%

Projected Finish: 8th (25%)
Max Points Available: 54pts

Magic Number: 14

Up Next: vs. PHX (9/23)
+
El Paso Locomotive FC benefited hugely from Monterey Bay F.C.’s defeat to San Diego Loyal SC, putting control back in the hands of Head Coach Brian Clarhaut and his players. The club’s upcoming three-game homestand is going to be essential to take advantage of as Phoenix Rising FC arrives on Saturday. A win, and a defeat for Monterey Bay F.C. against Oakland Roots SC would send El Paso back above the playoff line while still sitting with a game in hand on MBFC to try and take advantage of.
10. New Mexico United
Record: 10-13-7, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 13%

Projected Finish: 11th (38%)
Max Points Available: 49pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at PIT (9/23)
+
Earning a point on the road against Sacramento Republic FC would be a great result under most circumstances, but New Mexico United probably needed more to push itself back into the playoff conversation on a night where the other result it needed went its way. Now New Mexico has to go to Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, which has recorded the most home points of any team in the league so far this season, knowing it needs to win to try and bridge the gap once again. Victories for Sacramento Republic FC, Phoenix Rising FC and a draw between Monterey Bay F.C. and Oakland Roots SC would be very welcome as well.
11. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 8-10-11, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 12%

Projected Finish: 11th (47%)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at IND (9/24)
+
The Toros will have an idea of where their playoff chances stand before Sunday evening’s game against Indy Eleven, which is a must-win regardless of what happens elsewhere. It’s the same equation as New Mexico United is looking for, really, in terms of victories for Sacramento Republic FC, Phoenix Rising FC and a draw between Monterey Bay F.C. and Oakland Roots SC. If New Mexico were to lose to Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC as well, that would also help RGV FC’s cause.

Eliminated: Las Vegas Lights FC

Eastern

1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 16-5-9, 57 pts

Playoffs Odds: Cliched

Projected Finish: 1st (47%)
Max Points Available: 69pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. NM (9/23)
+
The Hounds remain with the most points in the USL Championship going into this weekend after Sacramento Republic FC’s draw with New Mexico United, once again showing that at a certain point having points in hand is always better than games in hand. Now Pittsburgh will face that same New Mexico side with a chance to clinch a top-three position and one home playoff game. A win against New Mexico United would move the Hounds to 60 points and clear of both fourth-placed Louisville City FC and fifth-placed Memphis 901 FC after their midweek setbacks, while a draw would also leave the Hounds clear having claimed the head-to-head tiebreaker against both clubs.


Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC Home Playoff Game Clinching Scenario
  • - Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC takes victory vs. New Mexico United, moves to 60pts
  • - Pittsburgh clinches top-three position, moving clear of Louisville City FC (maximum available points: 58) and Memphis 901 FC (maximum available points: 58)
  • - Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC draws vs. New Mexico United, moves to 58pts
  • - Pittsburgh clinches top-three position, moving clear of Louisville City FC (maximum available points: 58) on head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1), and Memphis 901 FC (maximum available points: 58) on head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0-0)
  • - Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC loses vs. New Mexico United, remains on 57pts.
  • - Pittsburgh clinches top-three position should both Louisville City FC AND Memphis 901 FC draw/lose their respective games
  • - Pittsburgh clinches top-four position should one of Louisville City FC OR Memphis 901 FC draw/lose their respective games
2. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 16-7-6, 54pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 1st (46%)
Max Points Available: 69pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. MEM (9/23)
+
The Tampa Bay Rowdies can clinch a top-four finish in the Eastern Conference this weekend with a victory at home to fifth-placed Memphis 901 FC. They could also secure a top-three finish should Louisville City FC also fail to take victory on the road against Loudoun United FC. As importantly, the Rowdies will also be looking to take all three points and hope Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC missed out on victory at home to New Mexico United to put Tampa Bay in position to claim top spot next week.

Tampa Bay Rowdies Home Playoff Game Clinching Scenario
  • - Tampa Bay Rowdies take victory vs. Memphis 901 FC, moves to 57pts
  • - Memphis 901 FC maximum available total drops to 55pts, securing top-four position for Rowdies
  • - Louisville City FC draws/loses vs. Loudoun United FC, dropping maximum available total to 56/55pts, securing top-three position for Tampa Bay.
3. Charleston Battery
Record: 15-7-8, 53pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 3rd (65%)
Max Points Available: 65pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. TUL (9/23)
+
The Charleston Battery could clinch at least one home playoff game this weekend if they take victory against FC Tulsa at Patriots Point. A victory for the Battery combined with two other results this weekend – a Tampa Bay Rowdies victory against Memphis 901 FC, a Loudoun United FC victory against Louisville City FC, or Indy Eleven dropping points against Rio Grande Valley FC on Sunday – would secure a top-four berth for Charleston. If all three results occur, the Battery would lock in a top-three spot.

Charleston Battery Home Playoff Game Clinching Scenario
  • - Charleston Battery takes victory vs. FC Tulsa, moves to 56pts, and one of the following results
  • - EITHER Memphis 901 FC loses to the Tampa Bay Rowdies, dropping maximum available total to 55pts
  • - OR Louisville City FC loses to Loudoun United FC, dropping maximum available total to 55pts
4. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 12-8-10, 46pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 5th (47%)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number: 3

Up Next: at TBR (9/23)
+
901 FC couldn’t find a winner despite holding the upper hand against Birmingham Legion FC on Wednesday night, but it will get another chance to clinch on Saturday as it visits the Tampa Bay Rowdies at Al Lang Stadium. Should Memphis fail to take victory, it can also clinch a playoff berth with a draw or a loss should FC Tulsa fail to beat the Charleston Battery, with Memphis holding the head-to-head tiebreaker on Tulsa.

Memphis 901 FC Clinching Scenarios
  • - Memphis 901 FC takes victory vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies, moves to 49pts
    • - Memphis moves clear of FC Tulsa (maximum available points: 48)
    • - Memphis 901 FC draws vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies, moves to 47pts
    • - AND FC Tulsa draws/loses vs. Charleston Battery, dropping maximum available total to 46/45pts – Memphis holds head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0-0)
    • - OR Detroit City FC loses vs. Hartford Athletic, dropping maximum available total to 46pts
    • - Memphis 901 FC loses vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies, remains on 46pts
    • - AND FC Tulsa draws/loses vs. Charleston Battery, dropping maximum available total to 46/45pts – Memphis holds head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0-0)
5. Louisville City FC
Record: 13-10-7, 46pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 4th (58%)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number: 3

Up Next: at LDN (9/23)
+
LouCity couldn’t close the deal in one of the most dramatic games of the season against Miami FC on Wednesday night, and will take another shot on Saturday at Loudoun United FC where once again a win gets the side into the playoffs. Should LouCity fail to take victory, however, it would also book its playoff place if FC Tulsa fails to take victory against the Charleston Battery with Louisville holding the head-to-head tiebreaker against Tulsa.

Louisville City FC Clinching Scenarios
  • - Louisville City FC takes victory vs. Loudoun United FC, moves to 49pts
  • -Louisville City FC moves clear of FC Tulsa (maximum available points: 48)
  • -Louisville City FC draws vs. Loudoun United FC, moves to 47pts
  • -AND FC Tulsa draws/loses vs. Charleston Battery, dropping maximum available total to 46/45pts – Louisville holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-1-0, +2GD)
  • -OR Detroit City FC loses vs. Hartford Athletic, dropping maximum available total to 46pts
  • -Louisville City FC loses vs. Loudoun United FC, remains on 46pts
  • -AND FC Tulsa draws/loses vs. Charleston Battery, dropping maximum available total to 46/45pts – Louisville holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-1-0, +2GD)
6. Indy Eleven
Record: 11-10-9, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 6th (50%)
Max Points Available: 54pts

Magic Number: 7

Up Next: at PHX (9/20)
+
Indy Eleven’s late point against Phoenix Rising FC edged the side closer to the playoffs, but it won’t quite be able to claim its spot in the postseason this weekend due to its tiebreaker with FC Tulsa being unresolved. At the same time, it’s looking like a matter of when – not if – for the Boys in Blue to clinch, and a victory at home to Rio Grande Valley FC could put the side in range of clinching a spot next week.
7. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 12-14-4, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 98%

Projected Finish: 7th (55%)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: 9

Up Next: vs. MIA (9/24)
+
Birmingham Legion FC still looks like a lock for the postseason, and it could take a very big step toward fulfilling that on Sunday night against Miami FC. If the hosts fail to take victory, however, they could risk being dragged back into a battle over the final three games of the season.
8. FC Tulsa
Record: 9-12-9, 36pts

Playoffs Odds: 41%

Projected Finish: 9th (48%)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at CHS (9/23)
+
Tulsa is on a three-game undefeated streak but will go into its game with the Charleston Battery missing both Marcus Epps and Phillip Goodrum to suspensions. That makes getting a result against the Battery a tall order, but if the visitors can pull it off it will keep the pressure on Detroit City FC to keep winning as well.
9. Detroit City FC
Record: 9-13-7, 34pts

Playoffs Odds: 59%

Projected Finish: 8th (46%)
Max Points Available: 49pts

Magic Number: 15

Up Next: vs. HFD (9/23)
+
After ceding eighth place to FC Tulsa last weekend, Detroit City FC can regain it – and control of the battle between the sides for the final playoff spot – with a victory at home to Hartford Athletic should Tulsa fall against the Charleston Battery. If DCFC misses out on all three points here, though, it will just raise the pressure on next week’s visit from Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
10. Miami FC
Record: 8-14-8, 32pts

Playoffs Odds: 5%

Projected Finish: 10th (78%)
Max Points Available: 44pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at BHM (9/24)
+
Wednesday night’s win against Louisville City FC was the performance of the season for Miami FC, but it only raised the club’s playoff odds to five percent. It’s going to need the same result against Birmingham Legion FC on Sunday evening, and for both FC Tulsa and Detroit City FC to lose on Saturday night, for that glimmer of hope to grow.
11. Loudoun United FC
Record: 7-19-4, 25pts

Playoffs Odds: <1%

Projected Finish: 11th (96%)
Max Points Available: 37pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. LOU (9/23)
+
That was a nice performance by Loudoun United FC against the Charleston Battery, but reality is here. Drop points against Louisville City FC on Saturday night, or see Detroit City FC or FC Tulsa take victory, and mathematical elimination is complete.

Eliminated: Hartford Athletic

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Tag(s): Features  San Antonio FC  CO Spring Switchbacks  Orange County SC  Phoenix Rising FC  Rio Grande Valley FC  Sacramento Republic FC  FC Tulsa  Charleston Battery  Louisville City FC  New York Red Bulls II  Pittsburgh Riverhounds  Tampa Bay Rowdies  Birmingham Legion FC  Indy Eleven  Memphis 901 FC  El Paso Locomotive FC  New Mexico United  Loudoun United FC  San Diego Loyal SC  Miami FC  Oakland Roots SC  Detroit City FC  Monterey Bay F.C. 

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