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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – Sept. 20

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 09/19/23, 4:05PM EDT

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Win-and-you’re-in for Louisville City FC, Memphis 901 FC in busy midweek slate of action


Birmingham Legion FC and Memphis 901 FC will square off on Wednesday night in a crucial game for both in the Eastern Conference playoff race. | Photo courtesy Birmingham Legion FC

Welcome to the latest edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs, in which we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2023 USL Championship Playoffs in October.

After victories this past weekend, Louisville City FC and Memphis 901 FC can add their names to the group of clubs that have clinched a postseason berth on Wednesday night, while out west Sacramento Republic FC will try to add to its dramatic late win on Saturday night and could ensure a top-four finish if another result falls its way.

Here are three games to keep an eye on, and where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Wednesday, September 20
Miami FC
Louisville City FC
7:00 PM
Stadium IconRiccardo Silva Stadium
Match Center

Louisville City FC will clinch a playoff berth for the ninth consecutive season if it takes victory against Miami FC in South Florida, with the hosts in massive need of a win as the playoff line keeps moving further away. LouCity took a 3-1 victory when these sides met in May and will be aiming for a repeat here to ensure it remains in fourth place in the Eastern Conference with Memphis 901 FC only a point behind.

Wednesday, September 20
Birmingham Legion FC
Memphis 901 FC
8:00 PM
Stadium IconProtective Stadium
Match Center

Memphis 901 FC can clinch a playoff berth if it can earn victory in the first of two league meetings between the Southern Harm rivals in the final stretch of the season. Birmingham Legion FC earned a 3-0 win when the sides met in the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup earlier this season, however, and the hosts are in major need of a win of their own to solidify their place above the playoff line and close in on a fifth consecutive postseason berth. 

Wednesday, September 20
Sacramento Republic FC
New Mexico United
10:00 PM
Stadium IconHeart Health Park
Match Center

Sacramento Republic FC clinched its playoff berth on Saturday night thanks to Luis Felipe Fernandes’ late winner against El Paso Locomotive FC, but the side now needs to keep winning as it battles Eastern Conference rivals Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and the Tampa Bay Rowdies for the Players’ Shield over the final stretch. There’s the potential for Republic FC to clinch at least one home game in the playoffs on Wednesday as well, as a win for Sacramento and a loss for Phoenix Rising FC at home to Indy Eleven would put Republic FC clear of Phoenix due to holding the head-to-head tiebreaker on goal differential (1-1-0, +3GD) from their season series.

STANDINGS

Western

1. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 15-5-9, 54pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 1st (94%)
Max Points Available: 69pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. NM (9/20), at COS (9/23)
+
Sacramento Republic FC clinched its playoff berth on Saturday night with victory against El Paso, and it could clinch at least one home playoff game if it wins against New Mexico United should Phoenix Rising FC fall to Indy Eleven on Wednesday night. As importantly for Sacramento, a win would move it level on points with Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC in the overall standings. A draw or a defeat to New Mexico would hand the Hounds a narrow advantage in the race for the Players’ Shield.

Sacramento Republic FC Clinching Scenarios
  • - Sacramento Republic FC defeats New Mexico United, moves to 57pts
  • - Indy Eleven defeats Phoenix Rising FC, Phoenix’s maximum available points drops to 57pts
  • -Sacramento Republic FC holds head-to-head tiebreaker over Phoenix (1-1-0, +3GD), guarantees top-four position
2. San Antonio FC
Record: 13-5-12, 51pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 2nd (54%)
Max Points Available: 63pts

Magic Number: 4

Up Next: vs. OC (9/23)
+
A first-place finish is looking a long-shot for San Antonio FC after its remarkable 3-3 draw with the Tampa Bay Rowdies on Saturday. The defending title holders will have to get back into gear quickly as third-placed Orange County SC visits Toyota Field this weekend, but SAFC will at least know a victory will get them into the playoffs regardless of other outcomes. A draw could be enough in the right circumstances, which means SAFC should be rooting for Monterey Bay F.C. to suffer a setback against San Diego Loyal SC on Wednesday night as well.

San Antonio FC Clinching Scenario
  • - San Antonio FC wins vs. Orange County SC, moves to 54pts
  • - San Antonio FC moves clear of El Paso Locomotive FC on head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1), clinching playoff berth
3. Orange County SC
Record:14-10-5, 47pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 3rd (27%)
Max Points Available: 62pts

Magic Number: 8

Up Next: at SA (9/23)
+
Orange County’s undefeated streak came to an end on Friday night and now it must gear up for the game that could make or break its bid for a top-two finish. Saturday’s game at San Antonio FC is the first of two between the sides in OCSC’s final five games, but if it loses, it would drop seven points behind San Antonio with only four games to go. OCSC can’t quite clinch this week, but it can position itself strongly with a big road performance.
4. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 11-8-9, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: 98%

Projected Finish: 5th (32%)
Max Points Available: 60pts

Magic Number: 14

Up Next: vs. DET (9/16)
+
Phoenix Rising FC was held to a draw last time out at FC Tulsa, missing out on a chance to capitalize on San Diego Loyal SC’s loss to the Charleston Battery, but the door seems to remain open for Rising FC as it hosts Detroit City FC this weekend. The game won’t be an easy one – Le Rouge have taken 10 points from their past four games – but with SD Loyal heading to Louisville City FC there’s a chance for Rising FC to move into the top four with a home win.
5. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 12-9-7, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 4th (26%)
Max Points Available: 61pts

Magic Number: 12

Up Next: at MB (9/20), vs. LV (9/24)
+
San Diego Loyal SC slipped to fifth place after its second consecutive road defeat to an Eastern Conference foe on Saturday, but it’s still got a chance to regain its position holding a game in hand on current fourth-placed side Phoenix Rising FC. Wednesday night’s slate, with SD Loyal visiting a Monterey Bay F.C. side that has won four in a row, and Phoenix hosting Indy Eleven, is going to be massive, with San Diego looking for all three points and some help from Indy against Phoenix.
6. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 12-13-4, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 87%

Projected Finish: 6th (27%)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: 15

Up Next: vs. SAC (9/23)
+
The combination of Colorado Springs’ victory on Friday night at Orange County SC and defeats for both Oakland Roots SC and El Paso Locomotive FC on Saturday night improved the Switchbacks’ playoff odds by almost 20 percent. Now the Switchbacks go up against the Western Conference leader Sacramento Republic FC this Saturday looking to solidify their position, with the potential advantage of Republic FC coming in on short rest after their midweek contest with New Mexico United.
7. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 11-10-8, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 74%

Projected Finish: 7th (23%)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: 15

Up Next: vs. MB (9/23)
+
Oakland Roots SC isn’t convincing right now, staying just above the playoff line in what’s become an incredibly tight playoff race. This Saturday’s playoff six-pointer against NorCal rival Monterey Bay F.C. is a potential breaking point for Oakland, but at least they’ll come in with a full week of training and rest as MBFC has to play on Wednesday night against San Diego Loyal SC before their clash.
8. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 11-11-7, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 66%

Projected Finish: 8th (24%)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: 15

Up Next: vs. SD (9/20), at OAK (9/23)
+
Monterey Bay F.C. has the lowest of the playoff odds of the teams on 40 points going into the week, but they’ve got the most momentum with four consecutive victories. MBFC will try to keep that rolling this week in two challenging contests, but if the side can get something out of Wednesday’s home game against San Diego Loyal SC it would set it up for a six-pointer against Oakland Roots SC this weekend.
9. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 11-12-6, 39pts

Playoffs Odds: 56%

Projected Finish: 9th (25%)
Max Points Available: 54pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. PHX (9/23)
+
Locomotive FC dropped below the playoff line on Saturday night as it couldn’t quite hold off Sacramento Republic FC away from home. There’s still better than a 50-50 chance this side makes the playoffs, though, and it will be hoping for San Diego Loyal SC to take points off Monterey Bay F.C. on Wednesday night before El Paso returns to action in a crucial home game against Phoenix Rising FC on Saturday.
10. New Mexico United
Record: 10-13-6, 36pts

Playoffs Odds: 10%

Projected Finish: 11th (42%)
Max Points Available: 51pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at SAC (9/20), at PIT (9/23)
+
New Mexico got the win it needed against Indy Eleven on Friday night, but then saw Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC and Monterey Bay F.C. do the same to keep United’s playoff odds pretty slim. Add in two road games this week against the teams at the top of the two conferences and it’s not looking great for the side’s playoff chances.
11. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 8-10-11, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 10%

Projected Finish: 11th (46%)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at IND (9/24)
+
The Toros will probably be left wondering why they weren’t able to produce more performances like that on Sunday in a victory against Birmingham Legion FC. With five games to play and a five-point gap to make up, it’s still a longshot RGV FC is in the postseason field.

Eliminated: Las Vegas Lights FC

Eastern

1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 16-5-9, 57 pts

Playoffs Odds: Cliched

Projected Finish: 1st (48%)
Max Points Available: 69pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. NM (9/23)
+
The Hounds are narrow favorites to claim the top spot in the Eastern Conference after their victory against Miami FC and the Tampa Bay Rowdies’ draw against San Antonio FC. This week could see Pittsburgh clinch a top-four position and one home playoff game, too, as a win against New Mexico United would move the Hounds to 60 points and clear of fifth-placed Memphis 901 FC thanks to a season sweep of the series that earned Pittsburgh the head-to-head tiebreaker.


Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC Home Playoff Game Clinching Scenario
  • - Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC defeats New Mexico United, moves to 60pts
    • - Pittsburgh clinches top-four position, moving clear of Memphis 901 FC (maximum available points: 60) on head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0-0).
2. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 16-7-6, 54pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 1st (46%)
Max Points Available: 69pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. MEM (9/23)
+
The Tampa Bay Rowdies are now in a virtual tie with Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC for first place in the East in terms of points available, but as with the Hounds there’s a chance for the Rowdies to clinch at least one home game this weekend when it hosts Memphis 901 FC. Tampa Bay’s fans should be tuned into Wednesday night’s Southern Harm clash between 901 FC and Birmingham Legion FC with the hope that Memphis drops points, which would then position the Rowdies to clinch a top-four finish with a win when the teams meet at Al Lang Stadium on Saturday.
3. Charleston Battery
Record: 15-7-8, 53pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 3rd (60%)
Max Points Available: 65pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. TUL (9/23)
+
After Saturday night’s draw, the odds of a top-two finish lengthened for the Battery, but they could have a chance to clinch a top-four finish this weekend with a victory against FC Tulsa on Saturday night if other results go their way. The Battery should be rooting for Louisville City FC, Memphis 901 FC and Indy Eleven to drop points on Wednesday night, which will make the picture clearer for what needs to happen this weekend.
4. Louisville City FC
Record: 13-9-7, 46pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 4th (61%)
Max Points Available: 61pts

Magic Number: 3

Up Next: at MIA (9/20), at LDN (9/23)
+
LouCity will clinch a playoff berth on Wednesday night if it takes victory against Miami FC, with the visitors also looking to ensure they remain ahead of Memphis 901 FC for fourth place in the Eastern standings. Having Memphis drop points against Birmingham Legion FC and Indy Eleven against Phoenix Rising FC would also help Louisville move closer to clinching a top-four finish.

Louisville City FC Clinching Scenarios
  • - Louisville City FC takes victory vs. Miami FC, moves to 49pts
  • -Louisville City FC moves clear of FC Tulsa (maximum available points: 48)
5. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 12-8-9, 45pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 5th (51%)
Max Points Available: 60pts

Magic Number: 4

Up Next: at BHM (9/20), at TBR (9/23)
+
901 FC can clinch its playoff berth with a victory on Wednesday night against Southern Harm rival Birmingham Legion FC thanks to holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over FC Tulsa, which currently sits in the cut-off spot in the Eastern Conference with a maximum available points total of 48.

Memphis 901 FC Clinching Scenarios
  • - Memphis 901 FC takes victory vs. Birmingham Legion FC, moves to 48pts
    • - Memphis moves clear of FC Tulsa (maximum available points: 48) on head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0-0)
6. Indy Eleven
Record: 11-10-8​, 41pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 6th (48%)
Max Points Available: 56pts

Magic Number: 8

Up Next: at PHX (9/20), vs. RGV (9/24)
+
Indy Eleven’s defeat to New Mexico United didn’t affect its position thanks to Birmingham Legion FC’s defeat to Rio Grande Valley FC on Sunday night, which kept the Boys in Blue in sixth place. A victory on Wednesday night against Phoenix Rising FC would put Indy in position to potentially clinch a playoff berth on Sunday evening against Rio Grande Valley FC, pending results elsewhere.
7. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 12-14-3, 39pts

Playoffs Odds: 98%

Projected Finish: 7th (50%)
Max Points Available: 54pts

Magic Number: 10

Up Next: vs. MEM (9/20), vs. MIA (9/24)
+
Birmingham missed out on a chance to move up a place on Sunday night when it fell to Rio Grande Valley FC but will want to take advantage of its two home games this week. A pair of wins against Memphis 901 FC (Wednesday) and Miami FC (Sunday) and an FC Tulsa loss to the Charleston Battery on Saturday night would send Legion FC into the playoffs on 45 points as it holds the head-to-head tiebreaker on Tulsa.
8. FC Tulsa
Record: 9-12-9, 36pts

Playoffs Odds: 42%

Projected Finish: 9th (53%)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at CHS (9/23)
+
Tulsa’s victory against Oakland Roots SC on Saturday night coupled with Detroit City FC’s defeat to Phoenix Rising FC made it a virtual two-team race for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. While DCFC remains narrowly favored, Tulsa has put pressure on Le Rouge to win its game in hand while holding a two-point lead in the standings going into this weekend’s games.
9. Detroit City FC
Record: 9-13-7, 34pts

Playoffs Odds: 59%

Projected Finish: 8th (46%)
Max Points Available: 49pts

Magic Number: 15

Up Next: vs. HFD (9/23)
+
Detroit City FC and FC Tulsa are set to battle down the stretch for the final playoff berth in the East after last weekend’s results, but Le Rouge at least appear to have the easier task between the teams this weekend. Should DCFC earn victory at home against Hartford Athletic, it will also be hoping to see Tulsa drop points on the road against the Charleston Battery.
10. Miami FC
Record: 7-14-8, 29pts

Playoffs Odds: 2%

Projected Finish: 10th (83%)
Max Points Available: 44pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. LOU (9/20), at BHM (9/24
+
You hate to count out a team early, but Saturday was probably the final nail in the coffin for Miami’s playoff chances. Only a sweep of this week’s games against Louisville City FC and Birmingham Legion FC, plus defeats for both FC Tulsa and Detroit City FC on Saturday night, could provide any hope of revival.
11. Loudoun United FC
Record: 7-19-4, 25pts

Playoffs Odds: <1%

Projected Finish: 11th (90%)
Max Points Available: 37pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. LOU (9/23)
+
That was a nice performance by Loudoun United FC against the Charleston Battery, but reality is here. Drop points against Louisville City FC on Saturday night, or see Detroit City FC or FC Tulsa take victory, and mathematical elimination is complete.

Eliminated: Hartford Athletic

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Tag(s): Features  San Antonio FC  CO Spring Switchbacks  Orange County SC  Phoenix Rising FC  Rio Grande Valley FC  Sacramento Republic FC  FC Tulsa  Charleston Battery  Louisville City FC  Pittsburgh Riverhounds  Tampa Bay Rowdies  Las Vegas Lights FC  Birmingham Legion FC  Indy Eleven  Memphis 901 FC  El Paso Locomotive FC  New Mexico United  Loudoun United FC  Hartford Athletic  San Diego Loyal SC  Miami FC  Oakland Roots SC  Detroit City FC  Monterey Bay F.C. 

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