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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – Sept. 15-17

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 09/14/23, 5:00PM EDT

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Republic FC looks to clinch playoff berth, while San Antonio vs. Tampa Bay clash has Players’ Shield implications


Luis Felipe Fernandes and Sacramento Republic FC will aim to clinch a playoff berth on Saturday night against El Paso Locomotive FC. | Photo courtesy Sacramento Republic FC

Welcome to the latest edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs, in which we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2023 USL Championship Playoffs in October.

The top two teams in the Western Conference have their targets set to claim their berths in the postseason this weekend with Sacramento Republic FC aiming to clinch on home turf, and San Antonio FC facing a marquee interconference clash with the Tampa Bay Rowdies on Saturday night.

Elsewhere, there is plenty to watch around the playoff lines in both conferences with five weekends to go in the regular season.

Here are four games to keep an eye on, and where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Friday, September 15
Orange County SC
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
10:00 PM
Stadium IconChampionship Soccer Stadium
Match Center

Orange County SC can’t quite get over the line to secure its return to the playoffs this weekend, but it’s contest against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC is a big opportunity for the hosts as they hold a game in hand on second-placed San Antonio FC with a three-point gap to make up. Don’t expect an easy victory against the Switchbacks, however, with Colorado Springs in a fight to stay above the playoff line in eighth place. The visitors took a 4-0 victory against Orange County earlier this season and will bring their own impressive collection of firepower to this clash.

Saturday, September 16
Louisville City FC
San Diego Loyal SC
7:30 PM
Stadium IconLynn Family Stadium
Match Center

Louisville City FC can secure its ninth consecutive trip to the playoffs on Saturday night with a victory against San Diego Loyal SC and a little help from elsewhere. With the quality on both of these squads, however, this should be an entertaining contest between teams with title aspirations at the end of the campaign. After defeats on the road last time out for both clubs as well, this is a game that will be a test of the playoff mettle for each club.

Saturday, September 16
San Antonio FC
Tampa Bay Rowdies
8:30 PM
Stadium IconToyota Field
Match Center

If you want a potential preview of the 2023 USL Championship Final, this is the matchup for you. The Tampa Bay Rowdies head to San Antonio FC with the clearest path to the best record in the regular season and the Players’ Shield after their victory last Saturday against Louisville City FC, with Cal Jennings currently the hottest forward in the league. SAFC, meanwhile, is winless in its last five and needs a victory to both potentially clinch a playoff berth and keep up its pursuit of Sacramento Republic FC for top spot in the West. Expect a hard-fought clash here.

Saturday, September 16
Sacramento Republic FC
El Paso Locomotive FC
10:00 PM
Stadium IconHeart Health Park
Match Center

Sacramento Republic FC can clinch a postseason berth with a win, which would put it clear of New Mexico United and El Paso Locomotive FC, the latter via a season-sweep of their series, but the hosts will be as eager to take three points in their return from a bye week to keep up their pursuit of top spot in the West and the Players’ Shield. That could be a challenge against an El Paso Locomotive FC side that has regained its defensive poise in the last few games, a key to the side’s jump back up to seventh place in the Western standings. This could be a bit of a chess match, and a potential first-round playoff matchup.

STANDINGS

Western Conference 

1. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 14-5-9, 51pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 1st (77%)
Max Points Available: 69pts

Magic Number: 5

Up Next: vs. ELP (9/16)
+
Republic FC remained on top of the Western Conference thanks to Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC earning a draw against San Antonio FC, and now holds both a one-point lead and a game in hand on its closest rival for top spot. Sacramento can clinch a playoff berth this weekend, too, with a victory against El Paso Locomotive FC pending one additional result elsewhere.

Sacramento Republic FC Clinching Scenarios
  • - Sacramento Republic FC defeats El Paso Locomotive FC, moves to 54pts
  • - El Paso Locomotive FC’s loss drops side to maximum available points to 54pts, Sacramento holds head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0-0)
  • - Republic FC moves out of reach of New Mexico United on maximum available points of 51pt
2. San Antonio FC
Record: 13-5-11, 50pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 2nd (39%)
Max Points Available: 65pts

Magic Number: 6

Up Next: vs. TBR (9/16)
+
San Antonio FC missed out on the chance to regain top spot last weekend with Sacramento on a bye, and now could be under pressure from Orange County SC, which is three points behind SAFC with a game in hand and both meetings between the sides yet to come this campaign. San Antonio once again can clinch a playoff berth this weekend as it hosts the Tampa Bay Rowdies in a major interconference clash, needing a win and one of either Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC or Monterey Bay F.C. to drop points.

San Antonio FC Clinching Scenario
  • - San Antonio FC wins vs. Tampa Bay Rowdies, moves to 53pts, AND one of the following results
  • - Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC draws/loses vs. Orange County SC, dropping maximum available points to 53/52pts, San Antonio holds head-to-head (1-0-1)
  • - Monterey Bay F.C. draws/loses to Las Vegas Lights FC, dropping maximum available points to 53/52pts, San Antonio holds head-to-head (1-0-1)
3. Orange County SC
Record:14-9-5, 47pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 3rd (29%)
Max Points Available: 65pts

Magic Number: 9

Up Next: vs. COS (9/15)
+
Orange County can’t quite get home this weekend to clinch a playoff spot, but its contest on Friday night could see the side put pressure on San Antonio FC for second place with a win against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC. OCSC will be rooting for a couple of results for Eastern Conference sides as well, as a Tampa Bay Rowdies win or draw against San Antonio FC and a Louisville City FC win or draw against San Diego Loyal SC would further boots its potential final position.
4. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 12-8-7, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 4th (30%)
Max Points Available: 64pts

Magic Number: 13

Up Next: at LOU (9/16)
+
San Diego Loyal SC is still in positive shape for a top-four finish as its defeat to the Charleston Battery last weekend was tempered by both Phoenix Rising FC and Oakland Roots SC also failing to earn three points. The margin of error remains tight for SD Loyal to open the playoffs at home, though, and a second consecutive road trip against an Eastern Conference contender in Louisville City FC will be another big test.
5. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 11-8-9, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: 98%

Projected Finish: 5th (32%)
Max Points Available: 60pts

Magic Number: 14

Up Next: vs. DET (9/16)
+
Phoenix Rising FC was held to a draw last time out at FC Tulsa, missing out on a chance to capitalize on San Diego Loyal SC’s loss to the Charleston Battery, but the door seems to remain open for Rising FC as it hosts Detroit City FC this weekend. The game won’t be an easy one – Le Rouge have taken 10 points from their past four games – but with SD Loyal heading to Louisville City FC there’s a chance for Rising FC to move into the top four with a home win.
6. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 11-9-8, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 91%

Projected Finish: 6th (28%)
Max Points Available: 58pts

Magic Number: 16

Up Next: vs. TUL (9/16)
+
Oakland Roots SC still has a three-point cushion to the teams above the playoff line, but it needs to reverse its three-game losing streak this weekend against FC Tulsa to steady the ship. The likely return from international duty of Bryan Tamacas (El Salvador) and Neveal Hackshaw (Trinidad and Tobago) should help that, but Roots SC would certainly appreciate wins by Sacramento Republic FC against El Paso Locomotive FC, Orange County SC against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, and Las Vegas Lights FC against Monterey Bay F.C. over the weekend.
7. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 11-11-6, 39pts

Playoffs Odds: 75%

Projected Finish: 7th (23%)
Max Points Available: 57pts

Magic Number: 17

Up Next: at SAC (9/16)
+
Locomotive FC’s victory on Wednesday night against Las Vegas Lights FC was a major boost to its playoff chances, aided by the defensive work that got a point on the road at Orange County SC last Saturday. El Paso must keep accumulating points, although that could be a big ask at Sacramento Republic FC on Saturday. It will be hoping to see Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC and Monterey Bay F.C. drop points this weekend as well.
8. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 11-13-4, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 68%

Projected Finish: 8th (24%)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at OC (9/15)
+
The Switchbacks managed to pull a point out of the fire against San Antonio FC last Saturday but wins by Monterey Bay F.C. last weekend and El Paso Locomotive FC in midweek have added more pressure for the side now in eighth place in the standings. A win away at Orange County SC is a big ask at this point. It might be as useful for the Switchbacks to see Sacramento Republic FC defeat El Paso Locomotive FC and Las Vegas Lights FC defeat Monterey Bay F.C. to boost its cause.
9. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 10-11-7, 37pts

Playoffs Odds: 55%

Projected Finish: 9th (29%)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. LV (9/16)
+
Monterey Bay F.C.’s momentum continued to build with its impressive road win against Memphis 901 FC last Saturday night. It will look for a fourth consecutive victory when it hosts Las Vegas Lights FC this Saturday night at Cardinale Stadium while hoping that its closest rivals for the last two playoff spots in Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC and El Paso Locomotive FC drop points at Orange County SC and Sacramento Republic FC respectively.
10. New Mexico United
Record: 9-13-6, 33pts

Playoffs Odds: 7%

Projected Finish: 11th (44%)
Max Points Available: 51pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. IND (9/15)
+
We’ve reached must-win territory for New Mexico, which has a four-point gap to make up to the playoff places with six games to go. Defeat at home to Indy Eleven on Friday night would make the road to the postseason even steeper.
11. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 7-10-11, 32pts

Playoffs Odds: 7%

Projected Finish: 11th (48%)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. BHM (9/17)
+
The Toros got washed out in Hartford, and victories for Monterey Bay F.C. and El Paso Locomotive FC put the playoffs further out of reach. With a five-point gap to make up and six games to go, the Toros need a win on Sunday against Birmingham Legion FC and the teams above them in the standings to start dropping points.

Eliminated: Las Vegas Lights FC

Eastern Conference

1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 15-5-9, 54 pts

Playoffs Odds: Cliched

Projected Finish: 2nd (36%)
Max Points Available: 69pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at MIA (9/16)
+
The Hounds remained a point ahead of Tampa Bay for the Eastern Conference lead, and that will make them fans of San Antonio FC as they hope for the Rowdies to drop points on the road. The Hounds will have a good portion of teams rooting for them as they head to face Miami, meanwhile, in particular Detroit City FC and FC Tulsa.
2. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 16-7-5, 53pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 1st (53%)
Max Points Available: 71pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at SA (9/16)
+
The Rowdies got a crucial home win against Louisville City FC to maintain their pathway to the Players’ Shield. Now they head to San Antonio FC for a potential USL Championship Final preview in need of another three points to try and stay ahead of the pack when it comes to the first silverware of the season. If the Rowdies win, it would be very welcome out at Sacramento Republic FC and Orange County SC.
3. Charleston Battery
Record: 15-7-7, 52pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 3rd (345%)
Max Points Available: 67pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at LDN (9/16)
+
The Battery are pegged for a third-place finish currently after clinching their postseason return, but a visit to Loudoun offers a chance for another away win. Should Charleston pick up three points at Segra Field, it will also be hoping for Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and the Tampa Bay Rowdies to drop points on the road at Miami FC and San Antonio FC respectively.
4. Louisville City FC
Record: 12-9-7, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 4th (48%)
Max Points Available: 61pts

Magic Number: 6

Up Next: vs. SD (9/16)
+
LouCity’s bid for a top-four finish wasn’t diminished too greatly by its defeat against Tampa Bay as Memphis 901 FC also slipped up at home last weekend. Louisville will now have a chance to clinch its postseason berth this weekend back on home turf against San Diego Loyal SC.

Louisville City FC Clinching Scenarios
  • - Louisville City FC takes victory vs. San Diego Loyal SC, moves to 46pts
  • - AND FC Tulsa draws/loses vs. Oakland Roots SC, dropping maximum available points to 46/45pts, Louisville holds head-to-head (1-1-0, +2 Goal Differential)
  • - AND Miami FC draws/loses vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, dropping maximum available points to 45/44pts
5. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 11-8-9, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 5th (33%)
Max Points Available: 60pts

Magic Number: 7

Up Next: vs. HFD (9/16)
+
Memphis missed out on the chance to move back into the top four with its loss to Monterey Bay F.C. at home last Saturday, but it can still clinch a playoff berth this weekend with a win at home to Hartford Athletic thanks to claiming the season series against FC Tulsa and Miami FC earlier in the campaign.

Memphis 901 FC Clinching Scenarios
  • - Memphis 901 FC takes victory vs. Hartford Athletic, moves to 45pts
    • - AND FC Tulsa loses vs. Oakland Roots SC, dropping maximum available points to 45pts, Memphis holds head-to-head (2-0-0)
    • - AND Miami FC draws/loses vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, dropping maximum available points to 45/44pts, Memphis holds head-to-head (1-0-1)
6. Indy Eleven
Record: 11-9-8, 41pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 6th (34%)
Max Points Available: 59pts

Magic Number: 8

Up Next: at NM (9/15)
+
Indy can’t quite clinch playoff berth this weekend, but it can put pressure on both Louisville City FC and Memphis 901 FC with a victory on Friday night against New Mexico United. A win there, and the Boys in Blue would have the chance to clinch a postseason berth next week.
7. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 12-13-3, 39pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 7th (43%)
Max Points Available: 57pts

Magic Number: 10

Up Next: at RGV (9/17)
+
Legion FC gave itself a cushion on the teams fighting for the final postseason berth with its win against New Mexico United last Sunday and will look to keep that momentum going as it heads to Rio Grande Valley FC to close out the weekend’s action, while hoping FC Tulsa and Miami FC at least continue to drop points, if not Detroit City FC as well.
8. Detroit City FC
Record: 9-12-7, 34pts

Playoffs Odds: 81%

Projected Finish: 8th (65%)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: 15

Up Next: at PHX (9/16)
+
Detroit City FC moved back above the playoff line and potentially wrecked one of its other rivals for a playoff spot with its victory against Miami FC last Saturday night. Le Rouge will face Phoenix Rising FC on the road this weekend and will want to at least match the result earned by FC Tulsa against Oakland Roots SC to try and sustain a one-point lead with a game in hand.
9. FC Tulsa
Record: 8-12-9, 33pts

Playoffs Odds: 15%

Projected Finish: 9th (57%)
Max Points Available: 48pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at OAK (9/16)
+
Tulsa is under pressure to get a result against an Oakland Roots SC side that is struggling for form. Trailing Detroit City FC by a point, and with one fewer game remaining in its slate, a victory would be a big result for the visitors at Pioneer Stadium as it hopes the Phoenix Rising FC side it drew with last time out can take victory against Le Rouge to flip the standings again.
10. Miami FC
Record: 7-13-8, 29pts

Playoffs Odds: 5%

Projected Finish: 10th (64%)
Max Points Available: 47pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. PIT (9/16)
+
It’s not completely over for Miami FC yet, but it sure isn’t looking good after last Saturday’s loss to Detroit City FC. Add in a must-win against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC this weekend, and the road is very steep to get back above the playoff line from here.
11. Loudoun United FC
Record: 7-19-3, 24pts

Playoffs Odds: <1%

Projected Finish: 11th (90%)
Max Points Available: 39pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. CHS (9/16)
+
Loudoun United could be mathematically eliminated this weekend if it loses to the Charleston Battery on home turf. That result and a Detroit City FC victory at Oakland Roots SC would leave the top eight all clear of United.
12. Hartford Athletic
Record: 4-19-4, 16pts

Playoffs Odds: <1%

Projected Finish: 12th (96%)
Max Points Available: 37

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at MEM (9/16)
+
Hartford got washed out last weekend, but the threat of mathematical elimination remains. A defeat on the road to Memphis 901 FC would likely bring the curtain down on the season should Detroit City FC earn a result at Oakland Roots SC. The Athletic will have teams in their corner like Louisville City FC and Indy Eleven hoping they can spring a surprise.

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Tag(s): Features  San Antonio FC  CO Spring Switchbacks  Orange County SC  Phoenix Rising FC  Rio Grande Valley FC  Sacramento Republic FC  FC Tulsa  Charleston Battery  Louisville City FC  Pittsburgh Riverhounds  Tampa Bay Rowdies  Las Vegas Lights FC  Birmingham Legion FC  Indy Eleven  Memphis 901 FC  El Paso Locomotive FC  New Mexico United  Loudoun United FC  Hartford Athletic  San Diego Loyal SC  Miami FC  Oakland Roots SC  Detroit City FC  Monterey Bay F.C. 

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