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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – Sept. 9-10

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 09/07/23, 3:05PM EDT

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Charleston Battery eye postseason berth, while Detroit City FC and Miami FC square off in six-pointer


Detroit City FC and Miami FC square off this weekend in a playoff six-pointer that could end up defining the season for both clubs. | Photo courtesy David Badia / Miami FC

Welcome to the latest edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs, in which we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2023 USL Championship Playoffs in October.

Two teams are officially in, with Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and the Tampa Bay Rowdies set for the postseason once again, and they could be joined this weekend by the Charleston Battery and San Antonio FC. There’s plenty of intrigue elsewhere in the battles for top spot, homefield advantage, and around the playoff line, though, and some great potential matchups to watch.

Here are four games to keep an eye on, and where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Saturday, September 9

It’s a matter of when the Charleston Battery and San Diego Loyal SC clinch their playoff berths at this point, but the meeting between the sides is going to be important for positioning at the top of their respective conferences. Charleston can clinch its playoff spot with a win – and through other results if it doesn’t pick up all three points, see below for how – while SD Loyal has an outside shot at a top-two finish if it can keep winning and take advantage of its games in hand. This should be a tremendous game to watch, too.

Saturday, September 9
7:30 PM
Stadium IconKeyworth Stadium

This is the definition of a playoff six-pointer. If Detroit City FC takes victory on home turf, it creates a five-point gap between itself and Miami FC, which could have the knock-on effect of making the battle for eighth place in the Eastern Conference a two-team race with FC Tulsa down the stretch. If Miami takes victory, it would move ahead of Detroit for the time being – Le Rouge would still have a game in hand on the South Florida side – and provide legitimate hope that a playoff spot can be salvaged. There’s so much on the line here, it should make for an intense game before DCFC’s passionate support.

Saturday, September 9

Given their recent history in the playoffs, every game between the Tampa Bay Rowdies and Louisville City FC is a must-see, but the positions both teams find themselves in currently make this particularly tasty. The Rowdies are still the favorites to finish on top of the Eastern Conference, but after Wednesday night’s defeat to Memphis 901 FC their margin for error has shrunk. LouCity, meanwhile, is looking to build on consecutive wins and with a win here could start thinking about a top-three finish. With the rematch in Louisville set for the final day of the season, this is the set-up to a fascinating final few weeks.

Saturday, September 9

This is a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Final, but both Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC and San Antonio FC need a result here for differing reasons. The Switchbacks have dropped consecutive contests to get dragged back into the playoff battle in seventh position in the West, only two points ahead of ninth-placed Monterey Bay F.C. going into this weekend. San Antonio FC, meanwhile, is winless in its last four games after last weekend’s loss to FC Tulsa and has Orange County SC and San Diego Loyal SC in pursuit of its top-two position. SAFC is undefeated in its last nine games against the Switchbacks, sweeping all three of last year’s contests, but there’s no better time for Colorado Springs to turn the tables in what should be a hard-fought clash.

Western Conference 

1. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 14-5-9, 48pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 1st (68%)
Max Points Available: 69pts

Magic Number: 5

Up Next: vs. ELP (9/16)
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Sacramento got the perfect weekend to go into a bye on. A victory against Oakland Roots SC and a loss for San Antonio FC gave back control to Republic FC, which is poised to not just clinch a playoff berth but earn top spot in the West and potentially the Players’ Shield. Sacramento can’t clinch this weekend due to its bye, but you can argue convincingly it will be the favorite in all six of its remaining games in the regular season.
2. San Antonio FC
Record: 13-5-10, 49pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 2nd (31%)
Max Points Available: 67pts

Magic Number: 7

Up Next: at COS (9/9)
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San Antonio not only gave control over first place back to Sacramento Republic FC with its loss at Tulsa, but it could have Orange County SC and San Diego Loyal SC snapping at its heels down the stretch. At the same time, San Antonio can clinch its playoff spot this weekend, thanks to holding tiebreakers over both Monterey Bay F.C. (1-0-1) and New Mexico United (2-0-0).
San Antonio FC Clinching Scenario

· San Antonio FC wins vs. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, moves to 52pts

· Monterey Bay F.C. loses to Memphis 901 FC, dropping to maximum available of 52pts, San Antonio FC holds tiebreaker (1-0-1)

· New Mexico United draws/loses to Birmingham Legion FC, dropping to maximum available of 52/51pts, San Antonio FC holds tiebreaker (2-0-0)
3. Orange County SC
Record:14-9-4, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 2nd (27%)
Max Points Available: 67pts

Magic Number: 10

Up Next: vs. ELP (9/9)
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Orange County’s eight-game winning streak has it within touching distance of San Antonio FC in second place with a game in hand on the defending champions. The side must keep winning, though, and while OCSC will be favored to win its next two outings at home it can’t underestimate an El Paso Locomotive FC side that is fighting for its playoff life this weekend.
4. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 12-7-7, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 4th (28%)
Max Points Available: 67pts

Magic Number: 13

Up Next: at CHS (9/9)
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San Diego Loyal SC earned an important home win this past weekend, and by the numbers can catch second-placed San Antonio FC and third-placed Orange County SC by the end of the season with its games in hand. SD Loyal probably has the toughest assignment of the three this weekend, though, in a visit to the Charleston Battery, which is fighting for its own top-three finish.
5. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 11-8-8, 41pts

Playoffs Odds: 98%

Projected Finish: 5th (31%)
Max Points Available: 62pts

Magic Number: 15

Up Next: at TUL (9/9)
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The numbers say Phoenix is basically a lock to return to the playoffs this season thanks to its three-game winning streak powered by Danny Trejo and Manuel Arteaga. A top-four finish is going to be a big ask, though, with Orange County holding a five-point edge and SD Loyal sitting ahead of OCSC with a game in hand. After last weekend’s results, though, there shouldn’t be any danger of Rising FC underestimating its visit to FC Tulsa on Saturday.
6. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 11-9-7, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 97%

Projected Finish: 6th (32%)
Max Points Available: 61pts

Magic Number: 16

Up Next: at LV (9/9)
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Oakland Roots SC’s playoff odds weren’t really affected by its loss to Sacramento Republic FC, but it did put a major dent in the side’s chances of hosting a game to open the postseason. Getting back in the win column this weekend in Las Vegas should be doable, and then Roots SC can hope the door opens a little wider by way of FC Tulsa and the Charleston Battery earning results against Phoenix and SD Loyal, respectively.
7. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 11-13-3, 36pts

Playoffs Odds: 78%

Projected Finish: 7th (32%)
Max Points Available: 57pts

Magic Number: 20

Up Next: vs. SA (9/2)
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The numbers say the Switchbacks are still in good position to return to the playoffs for a third consecutive year – in part because of teams faltering below them – but the next few weeks are going to test that. Colorado Springs faces the current top three in the Western Conference in the next three weekends (San Antonio FC on Saturday, Orange County SC on Sept. 15, and Sacramento Republic FC on Sept. 23), and needs to earn points to keep itself above the line.
8. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 10-10-5, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 65%

Projected Finish: 8th (27%)
Max Points Available: 59pts

Magic Number: 21

Up Next: at OC (9/9)
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Locomotive FC still has more games remaining than any team around the playoff line, but its loss to Monterey Bay F.C. put much more pressure on the side as it starts a three-game road trip this weekend against Orange County SC. The numbers say EL Paso will make it. The side’s form would disagree.
9. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 9-11-7, 34pts

Playoffs Odds: 34%

Projected Finish: 9th (28%)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at MEM (9/9)
+
Monterey Bay F.C.’s victory against El Paso Locomotive FC added to the rest of the weekend’s results effectively tripled the side odds of making it into the postseason, a sign of how quickly a run of wins can change the playoff picture. MBFC needs to keep building momentum in Memphis this weekend, a major test in any circumstances, and will be hoping for Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC’s and El Paso’s struggles to continue.
10. New Mexico United
Record: 9-12-6, 33pts

Playoffs Odds: 19%

Projected Finish: 10th (31%)
Max Points Available: 54pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at BHM (9/3)
+
New Mexico’s playoff chances are in serious problems after Saturday night’s loss to the Charleston Battery, which left it with only four points from a four-game homestand. United will be paying close attention to El Paso’s contest at Orange County SC and Monterey Bay’s game at Memphis on Saturday night, but Sunday’s game against Birmingham Legion FC feels like a must-win.
11. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 7-10-11, 32pts

Playoffs Odds: 10%

Projected Finish: 11th (89%)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at HFD (9/9)
+
The Toros’ defeat in Phoenix wasn’t fatal thanks to the other results around the playoff lines, but this Saturday’s game against Hartford Athletic is a must-win simply because RGV FC is running out of games. With only six matches remaining, the fewest of any team in the bottom half of the Western standings, this side has to make its run now.
12. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 2-16-9, 15pts

Playoffs Odds: <1%

Projected Finish: 12th (>99%)
Max Points Available: 36pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. OAK (9/9)
+
Turn out the lights, the party’s over? A Lights FC loss this weekend eliminates the side officially from playoff contention.

Eastern Conference 

1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 14-5-9, 51 pts

Playoffs Odds: Cliched

Projected Finish: 2nd (35%)
Max Points Available: 69pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. LDN (9/9)
+
The Hounds are back in the postseason and the maxim that it’s better to have points in hand than games in hand showed up once again on Wednesday night when the Tampa Bay Rowdies fell in Memphis to keep Pittsburgh in top spot. Victory at home to Loudoun United FC could tip the balance back in favor of Head Coach Bob Lilley’s side when it comes to top spot in the East.
2. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 15-7-5, 50pts

Playoffs Odds: Clinched

Projected Finish: 1st (49%)
Max Points Available: 71pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. LOU (9/9)
+
The Rowdies’ margin for error when it comes to securing first place in the Eastern Conference and the Players’ Shield became that much smaller with Wednesday night’s defeat to Memphis 901 FC. The first of two meetings with Louisville City FC in the final seven games of the season this Saturday back at Al Lang Stadium is going to be appointment viewing and will have a massive say in where these teams end the regular season.
3. Charleston Battery
Record: 14-7-7, 49pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 3rd (38%)
Max Points Available: 67pts

Magic Number: 2

Up Next: vs. SD (9/9)
+
The Battery have multiple avenues to clinch their playoff berth this weekend, the easiest of which is to defeat San Diego Loyal SC at Patriots Point on Saturday night. If the Battery draw or lose against SD Loyal, it can still clinch pending the result of FC Tulsa’s contest against Phoenix Rising FC, with the side set to be clear of one of Detroit City FC and Miami FC regardless of the outcome of their contest.
Charleston Battery Clinches with Draw or Loss IF
· FC Tulsa draws/loses vs. Phoenix Rising FC, dropping to maximum available of 48/47pts

· Any result in Detroit City FC vs. Miami FC

o Detroit City FC loses, drops to maximum available of 49pts, CHS holds head-to-head tiebreaker (1-0-1)

o Miami FC loses, drops to maximum available of 47pts

o Detroit City FC and Miami FC draw, Miami FC drops to maximum available of 48pts
4. Louisville City FC
Record: 12-8-7, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 4th (38%)
Max Points Available: 64pts

Magic Number: 8

Up Next: at TBR (9/9)
+
LouCity maintained its top-four position with victory in Colorado Springs, and while it can’t quite clinch a playoff berth this weekend it could start a push for a top-three finish. Finding a road win against the Tampa Bay Rowdies won’t be an easy task – Louisville hasn’t won at Al Lang Stadium since 2018 – but it would put the side in with a chance with a game in hand on both the Charleston Battery and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC.
5. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 11-7-9, 42pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 5th (36%)
Max Points Available: 63pts

Magic Number: 9

Up Next: vs. MB (9/9)
+
Memphis’ dramatic late comeback against Tampa Bay renewed its chances of ending the campaign in the top four. 901 FC will try to back its midweek result up with victory at home against Monterey Bay F.C. – a result plenty of other teams in the Western Conference would like to see – and home the Rowdies can rebound and earn a result against Louisville City FC this weekend.
6. Indy Eleven
Record: 11-9-8, 41pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 6th (46%)
Max Points Available: 59pts

Magic Number: 10

Up Next: at NM (9/15)
+
Indy’s victory against Miami FC was one of the most important of the past weekend, but the Boys in Blue still feel as though they’re going to be sitting in the lower half of the playoff positions after Louisville City FC and Memphis 901 FC’s wins in the past seven days. Indy will be rooting for the Tampa Bay Rowdies and Monterey Bay F.C. to get results this weekend as they prepare for the final stretch of the regular season ahead of what’s basically a locked in postseason return.
7. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 11-13-3, 36pts

Playoffs Odds: 97%

Projected Finish: 7th (54%)
Max Points Available: 57pts

Magic Number: 15

Up Next: vs. NM (9/10)
+
Legion FC’s loss in San Diego might have made its potential ceiling the No.7 seed in the Eastern Conference. There’s still no real worry Birmingham will drop below the playoff line, but after consecutive defeats getting back into the win column against New Mexico United this Sunday would offer a bit of reassurance.
8. FC Tulsa
Record: 8-12-8, 32pts

Playoffs Odds: 27%

Projected Finish: 9th (44%)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. PHX (9/9)
+
Tulsa might have saved its season on Sunday night with its victory against San Antonio FC, a result few likely saw coming. There’s still a lot of work to be done for Head Coach Blair Gavin’s side, which will look for another win against a Western Conference foe in Phoenix Rising FC on Saturday while hoping its closest rivals for eighth spot, Detroit City FC and Miami FC, end in a draw at Keyworth Stadium.
9. Detroit City FC
Record: 8-12-7, 31pts

Playoffs Odds: 60%

Projected Finish: 8th (47%)
Max Points Available: 52pts

Magic Number: 20

Up Next: vs. MIA (9/9)
+
Detroit City FC earned a valuable point against Memphis 901 FC but now faces a game that will define the season for both Le Rouge and Miami FC on Saturday night. DCFC is still favored to reach the playoffs, holding a game in hand on eighth-placed FC Tulsa, but it has to win this contest to potentially set up a two-horse race for the final slot in the East.
10. Miami FC
Record: 7-12-8, 29pts

Playoffs Odds: 16%

Projected Finish: 10th (52%)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at DET (9/9)
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There’s no other way to put it – Saturday’s game at Detroit City FC is for Miami FC’s season. If it loses at Keyworth Stadium, it would be looking at minimum at a five-point gap to the playoff places with six games to go. History tells us the odds are never good when a team is under that much scoreboard pressure down the final stretch of the season.
11. Loudoun United FC
Record: 7-18-3, 24pts

Playoffs Odds: <1%

Projected Finish: 11th (85%)
Max Points Available: 42pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at PIT (9/9)
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Loudoun United FC returns to action this weekend at Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC. It can’t be officially eliminated yet, but it will have plenty of teams at the top of both conferences rooting for it to earn a result against the Hounds.
12. Hartford Athletic
Record: 4-19-4, 16pts

Playoffs Odds: <1%

Projected Finish: 12th (>99%)
Max Points Available: 37

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs RGV (9/9)
+
Hartford can be mathematically eliminated this weekend – a loss to Rio Grande Valley FC and an FC Tulsa victory against Phoenix Rising FC would do it – but the Athletic should be eager to give their fans some hope for next year.

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