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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – Sept. 2-3

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 08/31/23, 3:00PM EDT

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Hounds can clinch while on their weekend off, Rowdies also can seal fifth consecutive postseason berth


NorCal rivals Sacramento Republic FC and Oakland Roots SC will square off in a key game for both teams in the race for position in the Western Conference on Saturday night. | Photo courtesy Sacramento Republic FC

Welcome to the latest edition of the USL Championship Race to the Playoffs, in which we provide weekly information on where each team stands in their bid to reach the 2023 USL Championship Playoffs in October.

While Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC is off this weekend, both the Hounds and Tampa Bay Rowdies have a path to clinch their playoff spots this weekend, and there’s plenty more to keep an eye on in both conferences after important results on Wednesday night.

Here are three games to keep an eye on, and where everyone stands.

GAMES TO WATCH

Saturday, September 2
Indy Eleven
Miami FC
7:00 PM
Stadium IconMichael A. Carroll Stadium
Match Center

Indy Eleven has put together a five-game undefeated streak – winning four times in that span – to put itself in prime position for the club’s first playoff berth since 2019. This weekend brings another pivotal contest in that quest with 10th-placed Miami FC coming in only a point out of the playoff places. The visitors need to earn victory in this six-pointer, while Indy could start to think about a top-four finish if its run of form fueled by Aodhan Quinn, Solomon Asante and Sebastian Guenzatti continues.

Saturday, September 2
El Paso Locomotive FC
Monterey Bay F.C.
9:30 PM
Stadium IconSouthwest University Park
Match Center

Both El Paso Locomotive FC and Monterey Bay F.C. ended lengthy winless streaks last weekend, setting up a contest that will prove pivotal, especially for Monterey Bay. The visitors have played one more game than eighth-placed Locomotive FC and have a four-point gap to make up. That means victory is essential for Head Coach Frank Yallop’s squad to give its pursuit of a first postseason berth a realistic chance.

Saturday, September 2
Oakland Roots SC
Sacramento Republic FC
10:00 PM
Stadium IconPioneer Stadium
Match Center

Sacramento Republic FC dropped out of first place in the Western Conference after falling to Phoenix Rising FC on Wednesday night and now needs to bounce back against NorCal rival Oakland Roots SC as it battles San Antonio FC for homefield advantage in the postseason. Roots SC also needs a win, though, as it looks to earn a first home playoff game in the USL Championship, which should make this the most compelling game of the weekend.

Western Conference 

1. San Antonio FC
Record: 13-4-10, 49pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 1st (38%)
Max Points Available: 70pts

Magic Number: 9

Up Next: at TUL (9/3)
+
San Antonio moved back on top of the Western Conference after its draw with Rio Grande Valley FC and Sacramento Republic FC’s loss to Phoenix Rising FC. It also saw its ceiling lower again when it comes to retaining the Players’ Shield, which means it needs to get back in the win column on Sunday night on the road in Tulsa.
2. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 13-5-9, 48pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 1st (44%)
Max Points Available: 69pts

Magic Number: 10

Up Next: at OAK (9/2)
+
Sacramento has suffered consecutive defeats for the first time this season over the past seven days, and while it’s still favored to finish on top of the Western Conference, it’s much closer to a coin-flip now with San Antonio FC. The good news for Republic FC is it looks to be getting healthy again, and after this Saturday’s visit to Oakland Roots SC four of its final six games are against teams below the playoff line. Getting a win against NorCal rival Roots SC, though, would be a welcome confidence boost, and put pressure on San Antonio to match them on Sunday night.
3. Orange County SC
Record:13-9-4, 43pts

Playoffs Odds: 99%

Projected Finish: 3rd (27%)
Max Points Available: 67pts

Magic Number: 15

Up Next: at LV (9/2)
+
Orange County will have been delighted by Wednesday night’s results, which opened the door a fraction further when it comes to its chances of finishing first in the West. The games that will determine that are a little further down the line – including a home-and-home with San Antonio FC – but OCSC can’t overlook picking up all three points in Las Vegas this weekend.
4. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 11-8-7, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: 98%

Projected Finish: 5th (34%)
Max Points Available: 64pts

Magic Number: 18

Up Next: vs. SAC (9/2)
+
Oakland Roots SC is still primed for the playoffs despite its defeat to Louisville City FC last Saturday, but earning a first home playoff game in the USL Championship became a little trickier. With San Diego Loyal SC holding a game in hand, Roots SC could use a victory against Sacramento Republic FC at home this weekend ahead of a run of what on paper look like winnable games (at LV, vs. TUL, vs. MB).
5. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 11-7-7, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 4th (29%)
Max Points Available: 67pts

Magic Number: 18

Up Next: vs. BHM (9/3)
+
San Diego Loyal SC is still in fifth place for now, but with a game in hand on Oakland Roots SC its odds of a top-four finish rose positively last weekend after it came through a test at Rio Grande Valley FC. Getting back on home turf this weekend against Birmingham Legion FC is a game that should also prove a challenge, but one SD Loyal will be up for to continue its upward drive.
6. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 10-8-8, 38pts

Playoffs Odds: 93%

Projected Finish: 6th (23%)
Max Points Available: 62pts

Magic Number: 20

Up Next: vs. RGV (9/2)
+
Phoenix Rising FC gained the most ground of any team in the West over the past seven days with just its second run of consecutive victories this season. If it takes victory against Rio Grande Valley FC on Saturday night – overturning its setback in South Texas – then the pathway to the playoffs becomes even more comfortable.
7. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 11-12-3, 36pts

Playoffs Odds: 84%

Projected Finish: 7th (26%)
Max Points Available: 60pts

Magic Number: 22

Up Next: vs. LOU (9/2)
+
The Switchbacks’ three-game undefeated run has solidified their position above the battle for seventh and eighth place. If it can find a victory on the road at Monterey Bay F.C. on Saturday, it would still be in the hunt for a top-four position at the end of the season.
8. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 10-10-5, 35pts

Playoffs Odds: 76%

Projected Finish: 8th (26%)
Max Points Available: 62pts

Magic Number: 23

Up Next: vs. MB (9/2)
+
El Paso Locomotive FC’s victory in Hartford finally got the side back in the win column and provided a solid boost to its playoff chances. So did Rio Grande Valley FC and New Mexico United dropping points in midweek, but the pressure is still on to earn a win at home to Monterey Bay F.C. this Saturday night to try and maintain the cushion last weekend’s win provided.
9. New Mexico United
Record: 9-11-6, 33pts

Playoffs Odds: 26%

Projected Finish: 9th (31%)
Max Points Available: 57pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. CHS (9/2)
+
New Mexico’s draw on Wednesday night against Las Vegas Lights FC was a result its playoff chances just couldn’t afford, dropping its playoff odds by 12 percent in one night. With El Paso Locomotive FC now holding a game in hand, United could use a victory by Monterey Bay F.C. on Saturday night as well as taking victory at home against the Charleston Battery. That second part of the equation could be a big test, with Charleston having claimed the most away points in the league so far this season.
10. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 7-9-11, 32pts

Playoffs Odds: 12%

Projected Finish: 11th (37%)
Max Points Available: 53pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at PHX (9/2)
+
Even as challenging as the opposition was, one point from two home games against San Diego Loyal SC and San Antonio FC in the past seven days means this Saturday’s game on the road against Phoenix Rising FC is a must-win for the Toros. Defeat in Arizona wouldn’t mathematically eliminate RGV FC, but the road to get back above the line would likely be too steep to navigate.
11. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 8-11-7, 31pts

Playoffs Odds: 11%

Projected Finish: 11th (41%)
Max Points Available: 55pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at ELP (9/2)
+
Monterey Bay F.C. got the win it had to have against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC but wins by El Paso Locomotive FC and Phoenix Rising FC meant it barely made an improvement for MBFC’s playoff chances. This Saturday’s game at El Paso is another must-win, but if Monterey Bay earns all three points it could quickly become a legitimate playoff candidate again.
12. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 2-14-9, 15pts

Playoffs Odds: <1%

Projected Finish: 12th (>99%)
Max Points Available: 42pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. OC (9/2)
+
Mathematical elimination for Lights FC might not come for a couple more weeks, but the side transferring leading goalscorer Tabort Etaka Preston to Birmingham Legion FC was the sign of a side that knows the playoffs aren’t happening this season. Time to play spoiler, starting against Phoenix on Saturday.

Eastern Conference 

1. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 14-5-9, 51 pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 2nd (44%)
Max Points Available: 69pts

Magic Number: 3

Up Next: vs. LDN (9/9
+
The Hounds are off this weekend, but they can still clinch a berth while resting up for the stretch drive. An Indy Eleven victory against Miami FC would drop the Florida side’s maximum available points mark to 50 and send Pittsburgh back to the postseason.
2. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 14-6-5, 47pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 1st (58%)
Max Points Available: 74pts

Magic Number: 7

Up Next: vs. HFD (9/2)
+
While their Magic Number is seven, the Rowdies can clinch their place in the playoffs this weekend thanks to holding the head-to-head tiebreakers over both FC Tulsa and Miami FC, against which they claimed season sweeps. That means a Rowdies victory at home to Hartford Athletic combined with a Miami FC defeat to Indy Eleven would put Tampa Bay out of reach of both on 50 points as the club continues its drive toward the Players’ Shield.
3. Charleston Battery
Record: 13-7-7, 46pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 3rd (48%)
Max Points Available: 67pts

Magic Number: 8

Up Next: at NM (9/2)
+
The Battery can’t quite book their playoff place this weekend, but their victory against Memphis 901 FC significantly improved the club’s chances of a top-three finish when the regular season ends. Earning a first home playoff game since 2018 would be a great achievement for Head Coach Ben Pirmann and his squad in Year 1 of the club’s rejuvenation.
4. Louisville City FC
Record: 11-8-7, 40pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 4th (32%)
Max Points Available: 64pts

Magic Number: 14

Up Next: at COS (9/2)
+
LouCity jumped back ahead of Memphis 901 FC into fourth place last weekend but it’s still a toss-up as to whether the defending Eastern Conference title holders hold onto that spot. Saturday’s trip to Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC figures to be a serious test, and LouCity would love to get some help from Detroit City FC as it plays host to 901 FC.
5. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 10-7-8, 38pts

Playoffs Odds: >99%

Projected Finish: 4th (31%)
Max Points Available: 65pts

Magic Number: 16

Up Next: at DET (9/2)
+
Memphis still has a top-four finish in its reach despite last Saturday’s defeat on the road in Charleston. The side faces another major test against Detroit City FC on Saturday, though, and would love to see Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC take points off Louisville City FC later in the night at Weidner Field.
6. Indy Eleven
Record: 10-9-8, 38pts

Playoffs Odds: 98%

Projected Finish: 6th (32%)
Max Points Available: 59pts

Magic Number: 16

Up Next: vs. MIA (9/2)
+
There’s still work to be done officially, but last Saturday’s comeback win against Loudoun United might have been the moment when Indy locked itself into the playoff field. With a five-game undefeated streak, the Boys in Blue are moving nicely and could do themselves and the other teams above the playoff line a big favor with a home win against Miami this Saturday.
7. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 11-12-3, 36pts

Playoffs Odds: >98%

Projected Finish: 7th (35%)
Max Points Available: 60pts

Magic Number: 18

Up Next: at SD (9/3)
+
There’s no reason for Legion FC fans to worry about the likelihood of the side reaching the postseason – Sunday’s defeat to Detroit City FC barely budged those odds – but it did make slotting into seventh place more likely, and a potential visit to either Tampa Bay or Pittsburgh to start the playoffs. Heading west to face to San Diego Loyal SC this Sunday afternoon will also be a serious challenge.
8. Detroit City FC
Record: 8-12-6, 30pts

Playoffs Odds: 67%

Projected Finish: 8th (48%)
Max Points Available: 54pts

Magic Number: 24

Up Next: vs. MEM (9/2)
+
No club had a better week in Week 25 than Detroit City FC. Two defeats for FC Tulsa, one for Miami FC and a victory for Le Rouge against Birmingham Legion FC moved the side above the playoff line and raised their playoff odds by 20 percent. DCFC still has a long way to go, but it has a game in hand on FC Tulsa and a crucial home game against Miami FC on September 9 coming up. Win against Memphis 901 FC on Saturday and things keep moving in the right direction.
9. FC Tulsa
Record: 7-12-8, 29pts

Playoffs Odds: 12%

Projected Finish: 10th (49%)
Max Points Available: 50pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: vs. SA (9/3)
+
Having played a game more than both Detroit City FC and Miami FC, this is not the spot FC Tulsa wanted to be in with seven games to go. The side will almost certainly need to get a result of some kind against defending Championship title holder San Antonio FC on Sunday night – which enters on a run of three consecutive shutouts – and hope both Detroit and Miami drop points in their matchups this weekend.
10. Miami FC
Record: 7-11-8, 29pts

Playoffs Odds: 24%

Projected Finish: 9th (40%)
Max Points Available: 53pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at IND (9/2)
+
Miami FC isn’t in quite as tough as spot as FC Tulsa with eight games to go and only a one-point margin to make up on Detroit City FC, and you could even look at this weekend’s game against Indy Eleven as an opportunity. Earn victory here and Miami might be above the playoff line by the end of the weekend, if Memphis can take points off Detroit and Tulsa drops points at home to San Antonio.
11. Loudoun United FC
Record: 7-18-3, 24pts

Playoffs Odds: 1%

Projected Finish: 11th (85%)
Max Points Available: 42pts

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at PIT (9/9)
+
It was probably over before Saturday night’s game at Indy Eleven, but now we can call it. Loudoun just isn’t going to get back into the hunt with six games to go and a six-point margin to make up.
12. Hartford Athletic
Record: 4-18-4, 16pts

Playoffs Odds: 1%

Projected Finish: 12th (95%)
Max Points Available: 40

Magic Number: N/A

Up Next: at TBR (9/2)
+
The Athletic don’t have anything to play for but pride in the final few games of the season, but you know Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC in particular will be rooting for them to earn even a draw against Tampa Bay on Saturday night.

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Tag(s): Features  San Antonio FC  CO Spring Switchbacks  Orange County SC  Phoenix Rising FC  Rio Grande Valley FC  Sacramento Republic FC  FC Tulsa  Charleston Battery  Louisville City FC  Pittsburgh Riverhounds  Tampa Bay Rowdies  Las Vegas Lights FC  Birmingham Legion FC  Indy Eleven  Memphis 901 FC  El Paso Locomotive FC  New Mexico United  Loudoun United FC  Hartford Athletic  San Diego Loyal SC  Miami FC  Oakland Roots SC  Detroit City FC  Monterey Bay F.C. 

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