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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – October 8-9

By USLChampionship.com Staff, 10/07/22, 11:30AM EDT

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Hartford Athletic
October 8 | 7:00 p.m. ET
Trinity Health Stadium
Oakland Roots SC

There are so many possible permutations in the Western Conference that it’s easier to just say Oakland needs to win out to give itself the best possible chance of reaching the postseason. Hartford has won four of its last five matches and scored three goals or more in all of those wins. Oakland’s back line will need to play a really good game to keep Roots SC in the playoff picture.


Rio Grande Valley FC
October 8 | 8:30 p.m. ET
H-E-B Park
Phoenix Rising FC
Rio Grande Valley just played the top two teams in the Eastern Conference in back-to-back games. A 1-0 loss to Louisville and a 2-2 draw in Memphis should be considered a good showing from these Toros. A few more points would have been nice, but they held their own against elite competition. Phoenix will be desperate to win this match, so RGV FC might be in for another slugfest.

El Paso Locomotive FC
October 8 | 9:30 p.m. ET
Southwest University Park
Orange County SC

El Paso needs a win badly. Any win will do to stop the downward slide after a 4-1 drubbing against Colorado Springs on Wednesday night. El Paso will wrap the regular season next week with a trip to the Rowdies, so a win against a beleaguered Orange County side is really the minimum needed.


Las Vegas Lights FC
October 8 | 10:00 p.m. ET
Cashman Field
The Miami FC

Las Vegas is fighting to keep its season alive and Miami is close to improving its seed and maybe even getting a home playoff game in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. There’s plenty on the line for both teams and it really feels like anything can happen in this one. Las Vegas has kept two consecutive clean sheets at home and Miami is on an eight-game unbeaten streak.


LA Galaxy II
October 8 | 10:30 p.m. ET
Dignity Health Sports Park
Atlanta United 2

LA had its match in Albuquerque called off after seven minutes played due to unplayable field conditions at Isotopes Park. Los Dos’ playoff odds have been creeping up in recent weeks, and a victory over Atlanta would see them jump up again before a repeat visit to New Mexico.


San Diego Loyal SC
October 9 | 6:00 p.m. ET
Torero Stadium
New Mexico United

Other than momentum, San Diego has nothing to play for in this match having already been locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. New Mexico, other the other hand, should have plenty to play for, possibly even clinching a playoff berth with a win, depending on what happens around the league Saturday night.

Standings

WESTERN CONFERENCE

2. San Antonio FC
1. San Antonio FC
Record: 23-5-4, 73pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (100%)
Max. Points Available: 79pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at BHM (10/9)
San Antonio has been the class of the league so far and is now within touching distance of USL Championship records for wins in a season and points in a season. SAFC has kept clean sheets in five of its last six matches and conceded just one goal in September.
2. San Diego Loyal SC
2. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 18-9-5, 59pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (100%)
Max. Points Available: 65pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: vs NM (10/9)
San Diego will definitely finish second in the Western Conference after picking up a point last weekend in Orange County. Will Landon Donovan rotate the squad and let key contributors rest before the playoffs, or will he try to keep them in rhythm?
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 17-12-4, 55pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 3rd (100%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at NM (10/15)
Colorado Springs secured the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference with a 4-1 win El Paso Locomotive FC on Wednesday night. Even if Sacramento catches the Switchbacks on 55 points, Colorado Springs will get the higher seed via the third tiebreaker of points-per-game in in-conference matches, having split their head-to-head series this year. Seeing Michee Ngalina score a hat trick after leading scorer Hadji Barry departed this week must have calmed some nerves.
7. Sacramento Republic FC
4. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 14-11-7, 49pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 4th (88%)
Max. Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: vs PIT (10/9)
Last week was a bad one for the Republic, which lost at home to Phoenix and then lost on the road in Los Angeles despite a man advantage against LA Galaxy II for nearly an hour. A playoff spot is in the bag, but Sacramento’s form has completely evaporated with three straight losses. Both of Sacramento’s remaining games are against playoff teams, so a big challenge awaits.
4. New Mexico United
5. New Mexico United
Record: 11-9-11, 44pts
Playoff Odds: 90%
Projected Finish: 5th (50%)
Max. Points Available: 53pts
Magic Number: 5
Up Next: at SD (10/9)
New Mexico’s match against LA on Wednesday night was washed out, so New Mexico will now close the season with three matches in eight days before a potential Western Conference quarterfinal clash. New Mexico isn’t in yet, but it could clinch with a victory Sunday night in San Diego to get to 47 points if any two of Oakland, El Paso, Rio Grande Valley FC and LA Galaxy II lose on Saturday, dropping their maximum points total to 46 or lower.
10. Rio Grande Valley FC
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 12-13-7, 43pts
Playoff Odds: 82%
Projected Finish: 6th (38%)
Max. Points Available: 49pts
Magic Number: 6
Up Next: vs PHX (10/8)
The Toros did well to fight back from a two-goal deficit on the road to earn a point against one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference on Wednesday night in Memphis. RGV FC’s playoff picture is starting to look pretty good. The Toros have the benefit of winning the tiebreaker if handful of teams all finish on 49 points, so the goal just be to just win games and trust that things will work out.
5. Oakland Roots SC
7. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 10-9-13, 43pts
Playoff Odds: 54%
Projected Finish: 7th (30%)
Max. Points Available: 49pts
Magic Number: 6
Up Next: at HFD (10/8)
Oakland sits right on the bubble as the last team in the current playoff field, tied on points with El Paso Locomotive FC below the line and RGV FC in sixth. FiveThirtyEight says it’s basically a coin flip if Roots SC will reach the postseason. Oakland has the advantage of a head-to-head tiebreaker Locomotive FC, so wins in the remaining matches against Hartford and Pittsburgh should be the ambition.
2. El Paso Locomotive FC
8. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 12-13-7, 43pts
Playoff Odds: 40%
Projected Finish: 8th (29%)
Max Points Available: 49pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs OC (10/8)
El Paso sat right on the playoff line for weeks without playing a game. It returned to the field Wednesday night and got thumped 4-1 at home by Colorado Springs. That result put a major dent in El Paso’s playoff odds, which have now dipped to 40%, down from 71% on September 26. With a difficult trip to Tampa Bay next week, El Paso badly needs a win this week against Orange County to even stay in the conversation.
2. El Paso Locomotive FC
9. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 11-13-8, 41pts
Playoff Odds: 11%
Projected Finish: 11th (23%)
Max Points Available: 47pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs MIA (10/8)
Las Vegas’ postseason odds have slowly ticked upward in the last few weeks, but they remain low. A path to the postseason still exists, but it’s getting extremely narrow. A loss Saturday night to Miami would eliminate Las Vegas if any two of RGV FC, Oakland and El Paso win.
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
10. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 12-16-4, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 3%
Projected Finish: 12th (45%)
Max. Points Available: 46pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at TUL (10/8)
Monterey Bay dropped six points last week with losses to both Las Vegas and the Tampa Bay Rowdies. In doing so, the Union likely watched its chances of reaching the playoffs in its inaugural season evaporate. There is still a path, but it would likely take two wins and a ton of help. If Monterey Bay loses and any two of RGV FC, Oakland and El Paso pick up at least a point, the Union’s maximum possible points total will fall short of the playoff line.
4. LA Galaxy II
11. LA Galaxy II
Record: 11-14-6, 39pts
Playoff Odds: 18%
Projected Finish: 9th (21%)
Max. Points Available: 48pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs ATL (10/8)
A home contest against Atlanta United 2 offers LA a good chance at a win, though nothing can be taken for granted. If LA loses and any two of New Mexico, RGV FC, Oakland and El Paso win, the Galaxy will be eliminated.
Phoenix Rising FC
12. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 11-15-6, 39pts
Playoff Odds: 2%
Projected Finish: 11th (33%)
Max. Points Available: 45pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at RGV (10/8)
A six-point week last week doubled Phoenix’s chances of reaching the playoffs from 1% to 2%. Phoenix needs two wins and a ton of help.
Eliminated from playoff contention: Orange County SC

EASTERN CONFERENCE

2. Louisville City FC
1. Louisville City FC
Record: 21-6-6, 69pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (100%)
Max. Points Available: 72pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: vs HFD (10/15)
Louisville clinched the top seed in the East with Wednesday night’s victory over Detroit and Memphis dropping points against Rio Grande Valley FC. LouCity extended its record for wins in a season to 21 and the Eastern Conference playoffs will run through Lynn Family Stadium.
3. Memphis 901 FC
2. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 19-8-5, 62pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (62%)
Max. Points Available: 68pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: vs NY (10/9)
Memphis let a win slip away Wednesday night, throwing away a 2-0 lead in the second half against a resilient Rio Grande Valley FC side. 901 FC now needs to focus on consolidating the No. 2 seed over the Rowdies. It might take two wins considering how soft Tampa Bay’s remaining schedule looks. Memphis’ doesn’t look unbearable either, but the margin of error is quite slim
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
3. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 17-7-7, 58pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 3rd (61%)
Max. Points Available: 67pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at MB (10/8)
The Rowdies overcame a lot of adversity last week and deserve a ton of credit for overturning a halftime deficit to beat Monterey Bay 2-1 on the west coast. On the other hand, Monterey Bay managed nine shots on target in that game. If not for a tremendous performance from reserve goalkeeper Phil Breno, the Rowdies would have lost. Either way, it’s a win on the record and Tampa Bay’s remaining schedule looks pretty soft with home contests against 11th-place Loudoun United FC and 14th-placed New York Red Bulls II either side of a home game against El Paso.
1. Birmingham Legion FC
4. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 16-9-7, 55pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 4th (71%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: vs SA (10/9)
Birmingham let an early lead slip last weekend in Oakland and now finds its hold on the No. 4 seed and the home Quarterfinals game that comes with it looking a little precarious.FiveThirtyEight really likes Legion FC’s chances of hanging onto fourth, but Birmingham is only three points ahead of The Miami FC in seventh, and with a weekend visit from San Antonio FC next on the schedule, points may be tough. At least the playoff ticket is already punched.
1. Birmingham Legion FC
5. Detroit City FC
Record: 14-7-12, 54pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 7th (34%)
Max. Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: vs MIA (10/15)
Detroit has just one regular season game left after Wednesday’s loss in Louisville, a home contest against Miami FC on the final day of the regular season. That one should have some seeding implications on it. FiveThirtyEight thinks Detroit is going to slip lower in the table.
3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
6. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 15-9-8, 53pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 6th (37%)
Max. Points Available: 59pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at SAC (10/9)
Pittsburgh did well to stand toe-to-toe with San Antonio FC until the closing minutes last weekend, but now a long trip to the west coast to play Sacramento awaits. The Hounds are winless in their last four and haven’t beaten a playoff team since July 9. Time is running out for Pittsburgh to get back into form before the postseason.
4. The Miami FC
7. The Miami FC
Record: 14-8-10, 52pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 7th (49%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at LV (10/8)
Miami FC is on an eight-game unbeaten run dating back to August 11 and beat Memphis last weekend in its regular season home finale. Visits to Las Vegas and Detroit loom, but it’s not unreasonable to think Miami will move out of the No. 7 seed and might even get into the top four.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: FC Tulsa, Indy Eleven, Hartford Athletic, Loudoun United FC, Charleston Battery, Atlanta United 2, New York Red Bulls II

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Tag(s): San Antonio FC  CO Spring Switchbacks  LA Galaxy II  Orange County SC  Phoenix Rising FC  Rio Grande Valley FC  Sacramento Republic FC  FC Tulsa  Charleston Battery  Louisville City FC  New York Red Bulls II  Pittsburgh Riverhounds  Tampa Bay Rowdies  Las Vegas Lights FC  Birmingham Legion FC  Atlanta United 2  Indy Eleven  Memphis 901 FC  El Paso Locomotive FC  New Mexico United  Loudoun United FC  Hartford Athletic  San Diego Loyal SC  Miami FC  Oakland Roots SC  Detroit City FC  Monterey Bay F.C. 

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