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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – Oct. 5

By USLChampionship.com Staff, 10/05/22, 10:00AM EDT

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Louisville City FC
October 5 | 7:30 p.m. ET
Lynn Family stadium
Detroit City FC

Louisville could wrap up the No. 1 seed Eastern Conference and the bye that comes with it on Wednesday night with a win if Memphis also drops points at home against Rio Grande Valley FC in a match that kicks off 30 minutes later. Detroit won’t be a pushover, though. Le Rouge arrives in town on a seven-game unbeaten run with reigning Player of the Week Maxi Rodriguez in tow. Detroit lost to Louisville in both league play and the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup this season, so you have to think they’ll be motivated for this match.

Memphis 901 FC
October 5 | 8:00 p.m. ET
AutoZone Park
Rio Grande Valley FC

A weakened Memphis team lost last week in Miami, but it should be back at full strength for this tussle with the Toros. If Louisville trails late or loses in the earlier game, expect to see 901 FC go all-out for a win to take control of the Eastern Conference race back. RGV FC went 4-0-0 in September conceding just one goal before losing to Louisville 1-0 on October 1, which is a totally forgivable result. In the middle of a really tight playoff race out west, RGV FC will be desperate for a result of its own.

El Paso Locomotive FC
October 5 | 9:00 p.m. ET
Southwest University Park
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC

El Paso hasn’t played since Sept. 18, so some rust is to be expected. Despite the long layoff, Locomotive still sits in seventh place above the playoff line coming into this game. A loss here wouldn’t be fatal, but a win would really help. On the other hand, Colorado Springs is winless in four games and just saw leading scorer Hadji Barry depart for the Egyptian Premier League for a USL Championship record transfer fee. Barry’s production will be hard to replace, but talented attackers remain on the roster.

New Mexico United
October 5 | 9:00 p.m. ET
Isotopes Park
LA Galaxy II

New Mexico can’t clinch a playoff berth with a win Wednesday night against LA, but it can put itself in position to clinch Saturday night if other results fall into place. New Mexico hasn’t won a game since Aug. 20, though, and this one doesn’t look easy on paper. LA beat Sacramento on Sunday to keep its playoff hopes alive. Another win here would be huge.

Standings


WESTERN CONFERENCE

2. San Antonio FC
1. San Antonio FC
Record: 23-5-4, 73 pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (100%)
Max. Points Available: 79pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at BHM (10/9)
San Antonio has been the class of the league so far and is now within touching distance of USL Championship records for wins in a season and points in a season. SAFC has kept clean sheets in five of its last six matches and conceded just one goal in September.
2. San Diego Loyal SC
2. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 18-9-5, 59 pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (100%)
Max. Points Available: 65pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: vs NM (10/9)
San Diego will definitely finish second in the Western Conference after picking up a point last weekend in Orange County. Will Landon Donovan rotate the squad and let key contributors rest before the playoffs or will he try to keep them in rhythm?
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 16-12-4, 52pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 3rd (79%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at ELP (10/5)
Colorado Springs is in the playoffs, but life without Hadji Barry must now begin in earnest after the star striker sealed his move to the Egyptian Premier League this week. Barry hadn’t played for the Switchbacks since September 17 anyway, but the pressure is now on the rest of the Switchbacks attack to produce.
7. Sacramento Republic FC
4. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 14-11-7, 49pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 4th (68%)
Max. Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: vs PIT (10/9)
Last week was a bad one for the Republic, which lost at home to Phoenix and then lost on the road in Los Angeles despite a man advantage against LA Galaxy II for nearly an hour. A playoff spot is in the bag, but Sacramento’s form has completely evaporated with three straight losses. Both of Sacramento’s remaining games are against playoff teams, so a big challenge awaits.
4. New Mexico United
5. New Mexico United
Record: 11-9-11, 44pts
Playoff Odds: 88%
Projected Finish: 5th (36%)
Max. Points Available: 53pts
Magic Number: 5
Up Next: vs LA (10/5)
New Mexico can’t clinch a playoff berth with a win Wednesday night against LA Galaxy II but it can just about put itself on the threshold. With the right combination of results Wednesday and Saturday, New Mexico can book its postseason ticket before it takes the field Sunday night in San Diego. New Mexico also knows wins over both LA and San Diego would be enough, no matter what other teams do.
5. Oakland Roots SC
6. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 10-9-13, 43pts
Playoff Odds: 43%
Projected Finish: 8th (26%)
Max. Points Available: 49pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at HFD (10/8)
Oakland finds itself above the playoff line having won three of its last four games, but the numbers say Oakland still only has a 43 percent chance of reaching the postseason. Why? Mostly because El Paso Locomotive FC and Rio Grande Valley FC both have games in hand over Roots SC. The fact that Oakland would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to both New Mexico and RGV FC if they finished level on points doesn’t help either. Oakland’s fate is out of its hands, but winning its remaining games against Hartford Athletic and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC gives it its best shot.
2. El Paso Locomotive FC
7. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 12-12-7, 43pts
Playoff Odds: 67%
Projected Finish: 7th (24%)
Max Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: 7
Up Next: vs COS (10/5)
El Paso finally returns to action Wednesday night to take on Colorado Springs in the first match of a run of three games in eight days to close the season. El Paso is the only team that doesn’t play on the final weekend of the year due to the odd number of teams in the league, so it well either get a free day to scout playoff opponents having already clinched, or it’ll be a nerve-wracking day. If El Paso can pick up seven points from these three games, it’ll be the former.

10. Rio Grande Valley FC
8. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 12-13-6, 42pts
Playoff Odds: 74%
Projected Finish: 6th (27%)
Max. Points Available: 51pts
Magic Number: 7
Up Next: at MEM (10/5)
The Toros sit below the playoff line right now, but Fivethirtyeight really likes their odds of making it into the postseason field. Seven more points would clinch it, regardless of what any other team does. Given that RGV FC just unleashed a four-game winning streak before losing a tight game to Louisville, that doesn’t feel impossible, but a midweek visit to Memphis looks tricky indeed.
2. El Paso Locomotive FC
9. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 11-13-8, 41pts
Playoff Odds: 8%
Projected Finish: 10th or 11th (23%)
Max Points Available: 47pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs MIA (10/8)
Las Vegas really could have used a win over New Mexico on Friday night, but it’s tough to win if you fail to record a shot on target as the Lights did. A path to the postseason still exists, but it’s getting extremely narrow. The Lights cannot be eliminated from contention Wednesday night even if New Mexico, El Paso and Rio Grande Valley all win.
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
10. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 12-16-4, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 2%
Projected Finish: 12th (44%)
Max. Points Available: 46pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at TUL (10/8)
Monterey Bay dropped six points last week with losses to both Las Vegas and the Tampa Bay Rowdies. In doing so, the Union likely watched its chances of reaching the playoffs in its inaugural season evaporate. There is still a path, but it would take two wins and a ton of help.
4. LA Galaxy II
11. LA Galaxy II
Record: 11-14-6, 39pts
Playoff Odds: 16%
Projected Finish: 9th (23%)
Max. Points Available: 48pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at NM (10/5)
LA’s 2-0 victory over Sacramento Republic FC on Sunday boosted its chances of reaching the postseason by a full 10 percent. The odds are still low at 16 percent, but if the Galaxy II can pick up a win at The Lab on Wednesday night, the remaining games at home against Atlanta and Las Vegas look relatively friendly.
Phoenix Rising FC
12. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 11-15-6, 39pts
Playoff Odds: 2%
Projected Finish: 11th (33%)
Max. Points Available: 45pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at RGV (10/8)
A six-point week last week doubled Phoenix’s chances of reaching the playoffs from 1% to 2%. Phoenix needs another couple of wins to give itself a chance, but it’s still possible.
Eliminated from playoff contention: Orange County SC

EASTERN CONFERENCE

2. Louisville City FC
1. Louisville City FC
Record: 20-6-6, 66pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (90%)
Max. Points Available: 72pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: vs DET (10/5)
Louisville regained control of its Eastern Conference fate with a gutsy 1-0 win at RGV FC last weekend and it can clinch the No. 1 seed if it beats Detroit and Memphis 901 FC drops points at home against RGV FC.
3. Memphis 901 FC
2. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 19-8-4, 61pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (55%)
Max. Points Available: 70pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: vs RGV (10/5)
Memphis kicks off its match against Rio Grande Valley FC on Wednesday night half an hour later than Louisville kicks off against Detroit. If Louisville trails its match late or loses, Memphis will smell blood in the water and see a real chance at taking the East’s No. 1 seed at the end of the season provided it beats RGV FC. This race isn’t over yet, even if Fivethirtyeight gives Louisville a 90% chance of finishing first.
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
3. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 17-7-7, 58pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 3rd (60%)
Max. Points Available: 67pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at LDN (10/8)
The Rowdies overcame a lot of adversity last week and deserve a ton of credit for overturning a halftime deficit to beat Monterey Bay 2-1 on the west coast. On the other hand, Monterey Bay managed nine shots on target in that game. If not for a tremendous performance from reserve goalkeeper Phil Breno, the Rowdies would have lost. Either way, it’s a win on the record and Tampa Bay’s remaining schedule looks pretty soft.
1. Birmingham Legion FC
4. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 16-9-7, 55pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 4th (62%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: vs SA (10/9)
Birmingham let an early lead slip last weekend in Oakland and now finds its hold on the No. 4 seed and the home Quarterfinals game that comes with it looking a little precarious. Birmingham is only three points ahead of The Miami FC in seventh, and with a weekend visit from San Antonio FC next on the schedule, Legion FC could slip down the table this weekend. At least the playoff ticket is already punched.
1. Birmingham Legion FC
5. Detroit City FC
Record: 14-6-12, 54pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 5th (30%)
Max. Points Available: 60pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at LOU (10/5)
Detroit is unbeaten in seven games following last weekend’s 4-0 win over Loudoun United FC, providing it with some real momentum ahead of a visit to Lynn Family Stadium on Wednesday night. Detroit City FC is 8-4-4 away from home this year, so it should like its chances of getting at least a draw and strengthening its position for a home playoff game.
3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
6. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 15-9-8, 53pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 6th (40%)
Max. Points Available: 59pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at SAC (10/9)
Pittsburgh did well to stand toe-to-toe with San Antonio FC until the closing minutes last weekend, but now a long trip to the west coast to play Sacramento awaits. The Hounds are winless in their last four and haven’t beaten a playoff team since July 9. Time is running out for Pittsburgh to get back into form before the postseason.
4. The Miami FC
7. The Miami FC
Record: 14-8-10, 52pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 7th (53%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at LV (10/8)
Miami FC is on an eight-game unbeaten run dating back to August 11 and beat Memphis last weekend in its regular season home finale. Visits to Las Vegas and Detroit loom, but it’s not unreasonable to think Miami will move out of the No. 7 seed and might even get into the top four.

Eliminated from Playoff Contention: FC Tulsa, Hartford Athletic, Indy Eleven, Loudoun United FC, Charleston Battery, Atlanta United 2, New York Red Bulls II

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