Las Vegas Lights FC
September 27 | 10:00 p.m. ET
Cashman Field
Cashman Field
Monterey Bay F.C.
Las Vegas is still mathematically alive and Monterey Bay is below the playoff line but well positioned to move up. A draw or loss wouldn’t end Lights FC’s playoff aspirations, but it’s really hard to figure see Las Vegas qualifying for the postseason with anything short of a victory. Monterey Bay comes into this match on a five-game unbeaten streak and armed with the knowledge that a win would vault it – at least temporarily – above the playoff line. This one should be tasty.
Sacramento Republic FC
September 28 | 10:00 p.m. ET
Heart Health Park
Heart Health Park
Phoenix Rising FC
Sacramento lost in San Antonio last time out, but it still finds itself with strong odds of finishing third in the West. A win for Republic FC would come with the prize of officially ending Phoenix’s chances of making the playoffs, just as Sacramento knocked Phoenix out of the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup this season. If Phoenix wants to do the unthinkable and reach the playoffs, it simply must win Wednesday night in Sacramento.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. San Antonio FC
Record: 22-5-4, 70 pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (100%)
Max. Points Available: 79pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at PIT (10/1)
San Antonio can clinch the No. 1 overall seed this weekend with a win over Pittsburgh if Memphis also drops points in Miami. A draw would be good enough for San Antonio if Memphis loses in Miami and Louisville drops points at Rio Grande Valley, but we’re sure San Antonio would prefer to just win.
2. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 18-9-4, 58 pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (97%)
Max. Points Available: 67pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at OC (10/1)
San Diego secured a home playoff game last weekend and it’s nearly impossible to see San Diego finishing anywhere other than second in the Western Conference. That means Loyal SC should be free to experiment and fine tune with its remaining three matches.
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 16-12-4, 52pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 4th (51%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 1
Up Next: at ELP (10/5)
Colorado Springs is just one point short of clinching a postseason berth and could do tonight without even playing if Monterey Bay drops points in Las Vegas tonight or against the Rowdies on Saturday night. Things haven’t been going well on the field lately for the Switchbacks, who are mired in a four-game winless streak, so maybe it’s best if the pressure is off before they take the field again.
4. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 14-9-7, 49pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 3rd (60%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: 3
Up Next: vs PHX (9/28)
Sacramento can both end Phoenix’s season and pull into a tie on points with Colorado Springs for third place (with a game in hand) with a win over Phoenix on Wednesday night. Expect to see a highly motivated Republic FC team.
5. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 12-12-7, 43pts
Playoff Odds: 70%
Projected Finish: 7th (35%)
Max Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: 9
Up Next: vs COS (10/5)
Fivethirtyeight likes El Paso’s odds of holding onto a playoff spot despite playing one more match than nearly all of its closest rivals. With Wednesday night’s scheduled game at Tampa Bay postponed due to Hurricane Ian, Locomotive FC doesn’t play again until October 5. Who knows what the table will look like by then?
6. New Mexico United
Record: 11-9-10, 43pts
Playoff Odds: 91%
Projected Finish: 5th (34%)
Max. Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: 9
Up Next: at LV (9/30)
Fivethirtyeight REALLY likes New Mexico’s chances of holding onto a playoff spot despite sitting just one point above the line as things stand. A Friday night match against Las Vegas Lights FC offers a chance to all but knock out one of the teams chasing New Mexico. NMU will be watching tonight’s match between Las Vegas and Monterey Bay very closely.
7. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 12-12-6, 42pts
Playoff Odds: 85%
Projected Finish: 5th (33%)
Max. Points Available: 54pts
Magic Number: 10
Up Next: vs LOU (10/1)
Led by Christian Pinzon, Rio Grande Valley FC is possibly the hottest team in the USL Championship. Pinzon has scored seven goals in 10 games since joining the club, but Saturday’s match against Louisville City FC will be a stern test for the Toros.
8. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 9-9-13, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 20%
Projected Finish: 9th (26%)
Max. Points Available: 49pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs BHM (10/1)
Including Saturday’s contest against Birmingham Legion FC, Oakland has just three games left to boost its playoff resume. In a weird scheduling quirk, all three of Oakland’s remaining games are against the Eastern Conference, including two playoff teams in Birmingham and Pittsburgh.
9. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 12-14-4, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 24%
Projected Finish: 9th (24%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: 12
Up Next: at LV (9/27)
A win Tuesday night in Las Vegas moves Monterey Bay F.C. above the playoff line with three games to go in its inaugural season. Had you offered that position to Head Coach Frank Yallop at the start of the year, he would surely have taken it. Monterey Bay is on a five-game unbeaten run, so it should feel confident about the stretch run of the season.
10. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 10-13-7, 37pts
Playoff Odds: 5%
Projected Finish: 11th (32%)
Max Points Available: 49pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs MB (9/27)
If Las Vegas loses tonight, its hopes of reaching the postseason are all but over. Lights FC would still be mathematically alive, but it’s hard to envision it ending the season with three wins in a row and its rivals dropping enough points that those wins even matter.
11. LA Galaxy II
Record: 10-14-6, 36pts
Playoff Odds: 6%
Projected Finish: 10th (26%)
Max. Points Available: 48pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs SAC (10/2)
LA Galaxy II is still hanging around and it’s hard to ever say what this team is capable of in a given week, but it’s hard to see a path to the postseason, especially with matches against Sacramento and New Mexico up next.
12. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 9-15-6, 33pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 12th (53%)
Max. Points Available: 45pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at SAC (9/28)
Phoenix’s season has felt over for a while now, but by the end of Wednesday night, it could be mathematically over. Rising FC needs to end the year with four wins from four games and hope for a ton of help from other teams. Fivethirtyeight doesn’t the odds of that happening.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Louisville City FC
Record: 19-6-6, 63pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (59%)
Max. Points Available: 72pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at RGV (10/1)
Even after losing control of the Eastern Conference with a 2-1 loss to Memphis last week, Fivethirtyeight is still bullish on Louisville’s chances of taking the No. 1 seed in the east. That said, would you want to travel to play a red-hot Rio Grande Valley FC this weekend coming off that loss? This one looks tricky.
2. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 19-7-4, 61pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (47%)
Max. Points Available: 73pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at MIA (10/1)
Memphis will have to fight through suspensions to a few key players in the aftermath of the finish last weekend in Louisville, as if a trip to Miami isn’t hard enough on its own. Now that it finally controls its own destiny in the east, can 901 FC take advantage?
3. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 16-7-7, 55pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 3rd (71%)
Max. Points Available: 67pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at MB (10/1)
The Rowdies were scheduled to play El Paso at Al Lang on Wednesday night, but that match was rescheduled due to the expected impact of Hurricane Ian. Surely, Tampa Bay’s preparation for a game on the west coast will be impacted. The Rowdies have lost four straight away from home, scoring just once in those games.
4. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 16-8-7, 55pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 4th (62%)
Max. Points Available: 64pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at OAK (10/1)
Birmingham pulled off a respectable result in St. Petersburg last week and now faces a long trip to Oakland. Legion FC’s playoff spot is secure, but the race for a home playoff game remains extremely tight.
5. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 15-8-8, 53pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 5th (51%)
Max. Points Available: 62pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: vs SA (10/1)
Pittsburgh needs to finish the regular season really strong if it wants to open the postseason at Highmark Stadium. The problem? San Antonio comes to town this weekend with a chance to clinch home-field advantage all the way through the USL Championship Final.
6. Detroit City FC
Record: 13-6-12, 51pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 6th (42%)
Max. Points Available: 60pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at LDN (10/1)
Detroit is still in the hunt for a home playoff game, but needs wins, not draws. Last week’s draws against New York Red Bulls II and FC Tulsa won’t be good enough to earn a playoff game at Keyworth. It’s time to win.
7. The Miami FC
Record: 13-8-10, 49pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 7th (62%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: vs MEM (10/1)
Miami FC is probably not going to be able to climb to fourth and secure a home playoff game. For better or worse, that means there’s not a lot at stake in Miami’s remaining three regular season matches – at least not for Miami.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: FC Tulsa, Hartford Athletic, Indy Eleven, Loudoun United FC, Charleston Battery, Atlanta United 2, New York Red Bulls II
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Tag(s): San Antonio FC CO Spring Switchbacks LA Galaxy II Orange County SC Phoenix Rising FC Rio Grande Valley FC Sacramento Republic FC FC Tulsa Charleston Battery Louisville City FC New York Red Bulls II Pittsburgh Riverhounds Tampa Bay Rowdies Las Vegas Lights FC Birmingham Legion FC Atlanta United 2 Indy Eleven Memphis 901 FC El Paso Locomotive FC New Mexico United Loudoun United FC Hartford Athletic San Diego Loyal SC Miami FC Oakland Roots SC Detroit City FC Monterey Bay FC