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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – Sept. 16-18

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 09/15/22, 4:40PM EDT

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Detroit, Miami look to close out in East, while Western picture remains wide open going into weekend


San Antonio FC and New Mexico United will square off in one of the key games in the Western Conference playoff race this weekend, with SAFC within reach of the No. 1 seed in the conference. | Photo courtesy Josh Lane / New Mexico United

Welcome to our latest look at the playoff picture across the USL Championship as we go into this weekend’s action, where the final two places in the Eastern Conference could be sealed on Saturday night. Out in the Western Conference, the picture remains wide open with five teams separated by two points between the seventh and final playoff place and 11th place in the standings.

Here are four games to keep an eye on, and where everyone stands.

Detroit City FC
September 17 | 7:30 p.m. ET
Keyworth Stadium
Tampa Bay Rowdies

Detroit City FC can clinch its trip to the USL Championship Playoffs with a victory at home to the Tampa Bay Rowdies to move to 49 points should Monterey Bay F.C. also take points from Indy Eleven later in the night, with the Boys in Blue currently sitting on a maximum available points total of 50 going into the weekend. That’s going to be great incentive for the hosts to turn the tables after their narrow loss to the Tampa Bay Rowdies at Al Lang Stadium – as will picking up a first home win since May – but the Rowdies need to take all three points here as well after a disappointing display last weekend in Charleston saw them cede ground to Memphis 901 FC in the battle for second place higher up the Eastern standings. There’s a better than average chance we could see this matchup again in the postseason, too.

Rio Grande Valley FC
September 17 | 8:30 p.m. ET
H-E-B Park
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC

Rio Grande Valley FC is looking to move into the top seven in the standings after consecutive victories. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC is aiming to clinch its postseason berth after defeat at home last weekend. After the five-goal thriller the sides gave us when they first met at Weidner Field, there should be plenty of entertainment on the field as the Toros’ Christian Pinzon looks to add to his run of five consecutive games with a goal. With a win, the Toros could be in seventh place by the end of the night and in control of their playoff path. For the Switchbacks, a season sweep would not only seal their playoff berth but keep the pressure on San Diego Loyal SC in the battle for second place in the West.

San Antonio FC
September 17 | 8:30 p.m. ET
Toyota Field
New Mexico United

San Antonio FC can close out homefield advantage in the Western Conference this weekend if things go its way, starting with a victory against New Mexico United. Should SAFC win and both second-placed San Diego Loyal SC and third-placed Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC drop points in their respective games, the road to at least the Western Conference Final would go through Toyota Field. New Mexico has a lot to play for as well, though, as while it remains in good standing to earn a return to the playoffs the club’s current run of three consecutive defeats is one it needs to bring to an end. After San Antonio’s 1-0 victory earlier this season at Isotopes Park, United will be aiming for payback and a boost to its postseason goals.

San Diego Loyal SC
September 17 | 10:00 p.m. ET
Torero Stadium
Phoenix Rising FC

San Diego Loyal SC and Phoenix Rising FC have developed a strong rivalry over their first three seasons competing against one another and this chapter could provide another important moment in that series. SD Loyal will clinch a playoff place with a win against Rising FC and could clinch at least one home game if other results go their way in the games involving New Mexico United, Monterey Bay F.C. and Las Vegas Lights FC. A victory for the hosts would also push Phoenix even closer to the brink of elimination from contention. 12th-placed Rising FC is in need of a win and plenty of help elsewhere to try and revive its playoff chances after last weekend’s defeat to Oakland Roots SC.

Standings


WESTERN CONFERENCE

2. San Antonio FC
1. San Antonio FC
Record: 20-5-3, 63pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (>99%)
Max. Points Available: 81pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: vs. NM (9/17)
San Antonio FC ensured it will have at least one home playoff game at Toyota Field this season with its win against San Diego Loyal SC last Saturday, and with an 11-point lead on its rivals in the conference it could clinch homefield advantage in the West this weekend. A victory against New Mexico United on Saturday night combined with dropped points for both SD Loyal and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC would move SAFC clear of all its rivals, leaving just the best record in the league to aim for in the final five games of the season.
2. San Diego Loyal SC
2. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 16-9-4, 52pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 2nd (73%)
Max. Points Available: 67pts
Magic Number: 3
Up Next: vs. PHX (9/17)
San Diego Loyal SC missed out on its chance to close the gap on San Antonio FC last weekend despite a good display, but it can ensure it books a playoff berth on Saturday night with a victory against Phoenix Rising FC. SD Loyal can also earn its place in with a draw should Rio Grande Valley FC drop points at home to Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, and in the case of a loss if the Switchbacks take victory against the Toros in South Texas. With a win, however, San Diego could also secure a home playoff game should New Mexico United lose on the road to San Antonio FC, dropping its maximum available points mark to 54 points, and both Monterey Bay F.C. and Las Vegas Lights FC drop points in their contests against Indy Eleven and Hartford Athletic respectively, which would drop Monterey Bay’s maximum available to 54 points and Las Vegas’ to 53 points.
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 16-10-3, 51pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 3rd (50%)
Max. Points Available: 66pts
Magic Number: 4
Up Next: at RGV (9/17)
The Switchbacks also get a second chance at securing their playoff place this weekend, which it would accomplish with a victory on the road against Rio Grande Valley FC. Should Colorado Springs draw with the Toros, it would move the side clear of its hosts in the standings as it would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker after winning their meeting at Weidner Field earlier this season, but it would also need El Paso Locomotive FC to drop points on Sunday evening against the LA Galaxy II to ensure a top-seven finish with Locomotive FC holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Switchbacks.
7. Sacramento Republic FC
4. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 13-8-7, 46pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 4th (49%)
Max. Points Available: 64pts
Magic Number: 9
Up Next: vs. OC (9/18)
Sacramento Republic FC romped to victory in its homecoming last Saturday night against Loudoun United FC and while it can’t quite clinch a playoff spot on Sunday afternoon in its nationally televised clash against Orange County SC on ESPN2, it can take another big step forward with a win. Republic FC will also know how San Diego Loyal SC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC have fared on Saturday night and could have the chance to close the gap on the top three.
4. New Mexico United
5. New Mexico United
Record: 11-9-9, 42pts
Playoff Odds: 88%
Projected Finish: 5th (44%)
Max. Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: 13
Up Next: at SA (9/17)
New Mexico United lost ground to Sacramento Republic FC last weekend, but its overall playoff odds remain solid thanks to the inconsistency below them in the standings. Going on the road to face San Antonio FC this Saturday night is going to be a big task, however, and one United will want to take something from while rooting for more chaos below it in the standings – a Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC victory at Rio Grande Valley FC and Hartford Athletic victory against Las Vegas Lights FC on Saturday and draw between El Paso Locomotive FC and the LA Galaxy II on Sunday would suit New Mexico very nicely.
2. El Paso Locomotive FC
6. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 11-12-7, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 46%
Projected Finish: 7th (21%)
Max Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at LA (9/18)
Locomotive FC is still above the playoff line after the past weekend and projected to stay there for now but it will have a close eye on Saturday night’s action before it closes the weekend schedule against the LA Galaxy II. Victories for Hartford Athletic against Las Vegas Lights FC, Indy Eleven against Monterey Bay F.C., and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC against Rio Grande Valley FC would move Locomotive FC closer to having control over its path to the playoffs, but it also needs to pick up all three points against a Los Dos side it lost to 5-0 the last time it went to Dignity Health Sports Park.
2. El Paso Locomotive FC
7. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 10-11-7, 37pts
Playoff Odds: 24%
Projected Finish: 11th (17%)
Max Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: 18
Up Next: at HFD (9/17)
Las Vegas Lights FC is the lead team in a five-club section of the standings separated by five points between seventh and 11th place in the West. It’s still in control of its path with six games to go but could use a victory against Hartford Athletic in the early section of games on Saturday night to put pressure on the teams that sit below the playoff line. If Las Vegas loses, it could drop as many as four places by the time the weekend is over, with none of their close rivals playing each other.

4. LA Galaxy II
8. LA Galaxy II
Record: 10-13-6, 36pts
Playoff Odds: 24%
Projected Finish: 10th (17%)
Max. Points Available: 51pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. ELP (9/18)
The LA Galaxy II lost the game and their heads against Orange County SC last Saturday night, leaving the side below the playoff line and in the middle of the pack of teams trying to jump past Las Vegas Lights FC. They’ll take on El Paso Locomotive FC – which also desperately needs victory – on Sunday evening without leading scorer Preston Judd after hoping Lights FC, Rio Grande Valley FC, Oakland Roots SC and Monterey Bay F.C. fail to pick up results on Saturday night.
10. Rio Grande Valley FC
9. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 10-12-6, 36pts
Playoff Odds: 59%
Projected Finish: 6th (24%)
Max. Points Available: 54pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. COS (9/17)
Rio Grande Valley FC is still below the playoff line and doesn’t have control over its path to the playoffs, but with three wins out of its last four games the Toros are – alongside Monterey Bay F.C. – in the best form of any of the challengers outside the top five. If RGVFC takes victory at home to Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC on Saturday, it could move into the top seven and gain control of its pathway. Toros fans should also be hoping for Hartford Athletic to defeat Las Vegas Lights FC, Indy Eleven to take victory at Monterey Bay F.C., and the New York Red Bulls II to down Oakland Roots SC while hoping for a draw on Sunday between the LA Galaxy II and El Paso Locomotive FC.
5. Oakland Roots SC
10. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 8-9-12, 36pts
Playoff Odds: 26%
Projected Finish: 9th (18%)
Max. Points Available: 51pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. NY (9/17)
Oakland Roots SC got the victory it had to have against Phoenix Rising FC and now it has to back that up with a home win against last-placed Eastern Conference side the New York Red Bulls II on Saturday. If it does that, it too could move above the playoff line. Roots SC will be hoping to see Hartford Athletic defeat Las Vegas Lights FC, Indy Eleven take victory at Monterey Bay F.C., and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC defeat Rio Grande Valley FC on Saturday night and a draw between the LA Galaxy II and El Paso Locomotive FC on Sunday evening.
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
11. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 11-14-2, 35pts
Playoff Odds: 26%
Projected Finish: 11th (16%)
Max. Points Available: 56pts
Magic Number: 20
Up Next: vs. IND (9/17)
Monterey Bay F.C. saw its Saturday night clash against Las Vegas Lights FC postponed last weekend – that’ll now be played on September 27 at Cashman Field – but elsewhere it wasn’t a bad couple of days for the side’s chances. Indy Eleven is in form as it heads to Cardinale Stadium which means this game will be a test as MBFC looks for a third consecutive victory. If it manages that, and holds onto control of its path to the playoffs, it would also be looking for Rio Grande Valley FC to fall to Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, Las Vegas to fall to Hartford Athletic, Oakland Roots SC to fall to the New York Red Bulls II and the LA Galaxy II to play to a draw with El Paso Locomotive FC.
Phoenix Rising FC
12. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 9-14-5, 32pts
Playoff Odds: 7%
Projected Finish: 12th (35%)
Max. Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at SD (9/17)
Phoenix Rising FC is in dire straits after its home loss to Oakland Roots SC, sitting 12th in the standings and 12th in maximum available points in the West. It’s going to have to defeat San Diego Loyal SC on the road on Saturday and hope all five of the teams above it in the standings falter in their games. That's the way the field comes back to Rising FC and lifts its chances.
3. Orange County SC
13. Orange County SC
Record: 7-12-10, 31pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 13th (75%)
Max. Points Available: 46pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at SAC (9/18)
Orange County SC got two big wins in the past seven days. First, it put a serious dent in the LA Galaxy II’s playoff chances, and then ensured it would remain at Championship Soccer Stadium in the 2023 season. It’s probably still too much to ask to get back into the playoff picture with five games to go and a six-point gap to make up, but three points on the road at Sacramento Republic FC – which has lost only once at home all season – on Sunday afternoon could make things interesting?

EASTERN CONFERENCE

2. Louisville City FC
1. Louisville City FC
Record: 18-5-6, 60pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (75%)
Max. Points Available: 75pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: vs. LDN (9/17)
Louisville City FC moved closer to the top seed in the Eastern Conference thanks to the Tampa Bay Rowdies’ defeat last weekend, but the side can’t quite clinch a home playoff game this weekend after Birmingham Legion FC’s victory against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC on Wednesday night with the Hounds off this weekend. The hope for LouCity in the bigger picture, though, is to take victory against Loudoun United FC and see San Antonio FC drop points at home to New Mexico United later on Saturday night to allow the Eastern Conference leader to narrow the gap between the teams for best record in the regular season going into the final stretch.
3. Memphis 901 FC
2. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 17-7-4, 55pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 3rd (47%)
Max. Points Available: 73pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: vs. CHS (9/16)
Memphis 901 FC gets to open the weekend’s action on Friday night holding a one-point edge over the Tampa Bay Rowdies for second place in the standings and in the maximum points available column. Getting a victory at home to the Charleston Battery would put pressure on the Rowdies to match them on Saturday night on the road against Detroit City FC.
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
3. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 16-5-6, 54pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (52%)
Max. Points Available: 72pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at DET (9/17)
The Tampa Bay Rowdies’ chances of a first-place finish took a major hit after their defeat on the road against the Charleston Battery last Saturday night and now they’ll be paying close attention to Memphis 901 FC’s game against the Battery on Friday before it squares off with Detroit City FC on Saturday night at Keyworth Stadium. The Rowdies narrowly defeated Le Rouge when they met at Al Lang Stadium earlier this season but as things stand this weekend’s meeting could be a playoff preview in either the No. 2 vs. No. 7 or No. 3 vs. No. 6 matchup.
1. Birmingham Legion FC
4. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 16-8-6, 54pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 4th (34%)
Max. Points Available: 66pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at TBR (9/23)
Birmingham Legion FC’s comeback victory against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC was crucial to the side’s top-four chances, giving the side a pathway to host a playoff game at Protective Stadium. With this weekend off, Legion FC can prepare for another big game on the road against the Tampa Bay Rowdies next weekend. With the Rowdies currently holding two games in hand on Birmingham, Legion FC wouldn’t mind seeing Detroit City FC hand the Rowdies a defeat this weekend to boost its chances of a top-three finish.
3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
4. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 15-8-7, 52pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 5th (36%)
Max. Points Available: 64pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: vs. OC (9/24)
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC couldn’t hold onto its halftime lead against Birmingham Legion FC – marking the first time in more than a year it had lost after leading at the break – and dropped to fifth place in the standings as a result. Now it gets the weekend off and will be hoping Miami FC and Detroit City FC don’t close the gap too much as they host Atlanta United 2 and the Tampa Bay Rowdies respectively.
4. The Miami FC
6. The Miami FC
Record: 13-8-8, 47pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 7th (36%)
Max. Points Available: 62pts
Magic Number: 4
Up Next: vs. ATL (9/17)
Miami FC is closing in on its playoff berth and would clinch its spot in the top seven with victory at home to Atlanta United 2 on Saturday night. While Miami wouldn’t be clear on Indy Eleven on 50 points before the Circle City club’s game later in the night against Monterey Bay F.C., it holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indy with a 1-0-1 record, which would seal its place. Miami would also clinch a playoff berth with a draw against Atlanta should Indy drop points against Monterey Bay, with 48 points putting the South Florida side clear of FC Tulsa below the playoff line.
1. Birmingham Legion FC
7. Detroit City FC
Record: 12-6-10, 46pts
Playoff Odds: 99%
Projected Finish: 7th (54%)
Max. Points Available: 64pts
Magic Number: 5
Up Next: vs. TBR (9/17)
Detroit City FC’s victory on the road against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC opened the door to clinching a playoff berth this Saturday night at Keyworth Stadium. Le Rouge would need to take victory against the Tampa Bay Rowdies to move clear of FC Tulsa on points – Tulsa claimed the first meeting between the teams, so a draw wouldn’t be enough with the Oklahoma-based side on a bye and the head-to-head unresolved – but should DCFC win to move to 49 points it would just then need Indy Eleven to drop points on the road against Monterey Bay F.C. later in the night to seal its postseason berth.

4. FC Tulsa
8. FC Tulsa
Record: 10-15-5, 35pts
Playoff Odds: < 1%
Projected Finish: 8th (45%)
Max. Points Available: 47pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at DET (9/24)
FC Tulsa’s loss to Hartford Athletic left it on the verge of mathematical elimination while on a bye this week. If Miami FC draws and Detroit City FC wins, that’s the end of the Road to Gold for this season.
5. OKC Energy FC
9. Indy Eleven
Record: 9-14-5, 32pts
Playoff Odds: < 1%
Projected Finish: 8th (46%)
Max. Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at MB (9/17)
With both Miami FC and Detroit City FC taking victory on the road last weekend, Indy Eleven’s win against Birmingham Legion FC continued its strong run of form but didn’t get the side any closer to the postseason. If the Boys in Blue don’t take victory against Monterey Bay F.C. on Saturday night, they could be mathematically eliminated by victories for Miami and Detroit.
Mathematically Eliminated: Hartford Athletic, Loudoun United FC, Charleston Battery, Atlanta United 2, New York Red Bulls II

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