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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – August 31

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 08/30/22, 11:30AM EDT

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A crucial six-pointer out West, while LouCity looks to book its playoff place, stay on track for best record


Louisville City FC will take on LIPAFC rival Indy Eleven on Wednesday night looking for a win to remain in line for the best record in the regular season as well as secure its eighth consecutive playoff berth. | Photo courtesy Em-Dash Photography / Louisv

Welcome to our latest look at the playoff picture across the USL Championship as we enter Week 26’s midweek action, after San Antonio FC backed into the playoffs late on Saturday night to become the first team in, and Louisville City FC wasn’t as lucky after falling on the road in South Florida.

LouCity can take its place in the postseason for an eighth consecutive season – and maintain its edge of San Antonio for the best record in the league – if it can accomplish what SAFC didn’t on Wednesday night, and there’s also a crucial six-pointer out west as part of a five-game slate.

Here are three games to keep an eye on, and where everyone stands.

Indy Eleven
August 31 | 7:00 p.m. ET
Michael A. Carroll Stadium
Louisville City FC

Louisville City FC gets a second go at clinching its playoff place after falling to Miami FC on Saturday night, but the bigger reason victory against the side’s LIPAFC rival Indy Eleven is key for the visitors is to remain a step ahead of San Antonio FC in the race for the best record in the regular season and overall No. 1 seed in the playoffs. LouCity gets that with a win. If Indy can pull off a repeat of the display that earned it victory against San Antonio this past Saturday, then SAFC regains the theoretical edge going into the weekend.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
August 31 | 7:00 p.m. ET
Highmark Stadium
Charleston Battery

Having claimed victory in their first meeting of the season, Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC currently holds the head-to-head edge against Birmingham Legion FC as the two sides battle for a top-four finish in the Eastern Conference. With the Hounds making up their game in hand on Birmingham on Wednesday night and a chance to move level on points with Legion FC ahead of their meeting in Alabama on September 14, this is a game the hosts need to win against a Battery side that was officially eliminated from playoff contention this past weekend, but that has shown an attacking threat in the second half of the season and defeated the Hounds when they played in Charleston earlier this season.

Phoenix Rising FC
August 31 | 10:30 p.m. ET
Wild Horse Pass
Rio Grande Valley FC

Rio Grande Valley FC got exactly the result and performance it needed to revive its playoff hopes on Saturday night with its 5-0 drubbing of Las Vegas Lights FC. Phoenix Rising FC, meanwhile, fell 3-1 to El Paso Locomotive FC in Juan Guerra’s debut on the sidelines, leaving the Toros currently with better odds to reach the postseason. As quickly as those numbers can change, both teams are in a must-win situation here, and as wild as the last meeting at Wild Horse Pass between these teams turned out in last year’s postseason it should be a must-watch game for neutral fans as well.

Standings


WESTERN CONFERENCE

2. San Antonio FC
1. San Antonio FC
Record: 18-5-3, 57pts
Playoff Odds:Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (83%)
Max. Points Available: 81pts
Magic Number: IN
Up Next: at OAK (9/3)
San Antonio FC’s surprise defeat on the road against Indy Eleven on Saturday night left the door open a little for San Diego Loyal SC in second place in the standings and meant SAFC was unable to take advantage of Louisville City FC’s loss in the race for the best record in the league. The Western Conference leader still has a game in hand and a five-point lead on SD Loyal before the two teams meet again on September 10 at Toyota Field and it should have a close eye on LouCity’s contest on Wednesday where it will be hoping Indy can deliver another result.
2. San Diego Loyal SC
2. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 16-7-4, 52pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 2nd (70%)
Max. Points Available: 73pts
Magic Number: 6
Up Next: at MB (9/3)
There is a pathway to San Diego Loyal SC to clinch its playoff spot on Saturday night with a victory against Monterey Bay F.C., and it starts on Wednesday night when Phoenix Rising FC hosts Rio Grande Valley FC. A Rising FC victory would drop the Toros – who split their season series with SD Loyal with an equal goal difference – to a maximum of 54 points. That would then need to be followed by El Paso Locomotive FC failing to take victory on Friday night against New Mexico United to drop El Paso’s maximum available to 53 points, Rising FC failing to take victory against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC on Saturday to drop Phoenix’s maximum available to 54 points, and SD Loyal defeating Monterey Bay to reach 55 points while dropping Monterey Bay to a maximum of 53 points, guaranteeing San Diego a top-seven finish.
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 15-9-3, 48pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 3rd (47%)
Max. Points Available: 69pts
Magic Number: 10
Up Next: vs. PHX (9/3)
The Switchbacks are looking far more secure in their aim to play their first home postseason game since 2016 and the first at new downtown home Weidner Field after Saturday night’s victory against New Mexico United. If Colorado Springs can deliver another victory on Saturday against Phoenix Rising FC, it would move closer to the playoffs and give the rest of the teams around the playoff line in the standings a sizeable boost as well.
7. Sacramento Republic FC
4. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 12-7-7, 43pts
Playoff Odds: 99%
Projected Finish: 4th (37%)
Max. Points Available: 67pts
Magic Number: 15
Up Next: at LOU (9/3)
Sacramento Republic FC’s weekend victory moved it into the top four again ahead of a great road test against Louisville City FC on Saturday night before the 2022 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup Final. Is there a chance the club’s trip to Lynn Family Stadium won’t be its last this season? It certainly feels like there’s the potential for a Championship Final preview.
4. New Mexico United
5. New Mexico United
Record: 11-7-9, 42pts
Playoff Odds: 93%
Projected Finish: 5th (34%)
Max. Points Available: 63pts
Magic Number: 16
Up Next: vs. ELP (9/2)
There’s no reason for New Mexico to be concerned its playoff place is in danger after Saturday’s loss to Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, but completing a season sweep of rival El Paso Locomotive FC on Friday night at Isotopes would be a nice reassurance given United’s current lack of momentum. As for Wednesday night’s action, a draw would probably suit New Mexico best, dropping both Phoenix and Rio Grande Valley FC’s maximum available totals.
6. El Paso Locomotive FC
6. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 10-11-7, 37pts
Playoff Odds: 41%
Projected Finish: 7th (18%)
Max Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at NM (9/2)
Locomotive FC’s victory against Phoenix Rising FC on Saturday was a major confidence booster after its recent winless run, but the side still doesn’t have control over its playoff prospects with six games to go. El Paso fans should be hoping for Phoenix Rising FC and Rio Grande Valley FC to drop points on Wednesday night, and the side has got to find a way to win on Friday night when it heads to face rival New Mexico United.
7. Las Vegas Lights FC
7. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 10-10-7, 37pts
Playoff Odds: 30%
Projected Finish: 9th (18%)
Max Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 21
Up Next: at TBR (9/3)
Of all the moments to pull out a clunker of a performance, Rio Grande Valley FC was the team that Lights FC could afford it against least. The silver lining is Las Vegas does still hold its fate in its hands even after that loss, but it’s going to have to come through with a big performance against the Tampa Bay Rowdies as it heads to the east coast this weekend to remain in control.
4. LA Galaxy II
8. LA Galaxy II
Record: 10-11-6, 36pts
Playoff Odds: 53%
Projected Finish: 6th (21%)
Max. Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. HFD (9/5)
The Galaxy II’s victory against Monterey Bay was a great result for newly appointed Head Coach Marcelo Sarvas as Tsubasa Endoh scored twice on his debut. Endoh’s presence could be a great lift for Los Dos, we’ve seen what he can do at this level before, and LA’s got the schedule that could offer a path to the playoffs. It’ll be an interested observer this week before getting back onto the field on Monday night against Hartford Athletic. Will the door be open to moving above the playoffs line then? It certainly could be.
5. Oakland Roots SC
9. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 7-8-12, 33pts
Playoff Odds: 23%
Projected Finish: 10th (18%)
Max. Points Available: 54pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SA (9/3)
Last week was a case of one step forward, two steps back for Roots SC’s playoff chances. Now it gets to play host to Western Conference leader San Antonio FC, which will be eager to rebound from a loss as it chases the best record in the league, with Oakland sitting in must-win territory with seven games to go.
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
10. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 8-11-6, 30pts
Playoff Odds: 37%
Projected Finish: 6th (14%)
Max. Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at PHX (8/31)
According to fivethirtyeight.com, Rio Grande Valley FC has double-digit percentage odds of finishing anywhere from sixth to 11th at the end of the season. After Saturday night’s romp against Las Vegas Lights FC pushed the Toros up the standings, a victory against Phoenix Rising FC in another six-pointer could dramatically increase those odds. A loss or a draw, and the Toros are looking once again at finishing below the playoff line.
Phoenix Rising FC
11. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 8-12-5, 29pts
Playoff Odds: 18%
Projected Finish: 12th (19%)
Max. Points Available: 56pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. RGV (8/31), at COS (9/3)
Phoenix Rising FC’s playoff chances took a major hit on Saturday night with its defeat to El Paso Locomotive FC. Now it faces a season-defining week with games at home to Rio Grande Valley FC and on the road against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC. If Rising FC can defeat the Toros, it drops the deficit to five points with eight games to go, which takes a little pressure off the trip to Colorado Springs. If it fails to take victory, then the trip to the Switchbacks is a must-win, which it might be anyway.
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
12. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 9-14-2, 29pts
Playoff Odds: 5%
Projected Finish: 12th (28%)
Max. Points Available: 56pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SD (9/3)
It’s not looking great for Monterey Bay anymore. A loss to the Galaxy II, and victories by El Paso Locomotive FC and Rio Grande Valley FC not only made the gap in points to the playoffs position that much wider, but also left MBFC with a lot of teams to jump over. Add in a visit from a San Diego Loyal SC side that could be looking to clinch its playoff place and this weekend’s game looks a difficult one.
3. Orange County SC
13. Orange County SC
Record: 6-11-9, 27pts
Playoff Odds: 2%
Projected Finish: 13th (52%)
Max. Points Available: 51pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. MEM (9/3)
We’ve reached the tipping point for Orange County SC. You know the rule of thumb by now – 10 points out with eight games to go means there’s likely no way back from here. A visit from Memphis 901 FC on Saturday night is OCSC’s first game as a spoiler instead of a contender.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

2. Louisville City FC
1. Louisville City FC
Record: 17-4-4, 55pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 1st (76%)
Max. Points Available: 82pts
Magic Number: 1
Up Next: at IND (8/31), vs. SAC (9/3)
Louisville City FC’s loss in Miami was cancelled out by Indy Eleven’s victory against San Antonio FC, once again proving how this time of year makes for strange allies depending on the weekend and matchup. LouCity goes to Indy next on Wednesday night where a victory keeps it on course for the best record in the league. After the draw between the teams early in the season, this rivalry is always worth watching, but you’d expect there’ll be more San Antonio FC fans than usual this time.
3. Memphis 901 FC
2. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 16-6-3, 51pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 3rd (38%)
Max. Points Available: 78pts
Magic Number: 5
Up Next: vs. LDN (8/31), at OC (9/3)
With every team above the playoff line except for Louisville City FC taking victory this past weekend, the pressure is on Memphis to take advantage of its games in hand to stay in control of second place in the standings. Picking up all three points on Wednesday against Loudoun United FC sets up a chance to clinch a playoff place this weekend against Orange County.
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
3. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record:15-5-6, 51pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 2nd (48%)
Max. Points Available: 75pts
Magic Number: 5
Up Next: vs. LV (9/3)
The Rowdies are within range of clinching a playoff berth this weekend when they play host to Las Vegas Lights FC. A victory at home combined with FC Tulsa dropping points in its contest against Atlanta United 2 – a draw would drop Tulsa’s maximum available total to 53 points – would be enough to send the two-time defending Eastern Conference title holders into their fourth consecutive playoffs.
1. Birmingham Legion FC
4. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 15-7-5, 50pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 4th (31%)
Max. Points Available: 71pts
Magic Number: 6
Up Next: at MIA (9/3)
Legion FC is one of the hottest teams in the Championship, and it can close out a playoff place this week as it heads to Miami. A victory on the road would move Birmingham to 53 points, and should FC Tulsa lose to Atlanta United 2 the same night its maximum available points would drop to 52. If Tulsa gets held to a draw, however, only dropping to a maximum available of 53, then Legion FC would need one more point thanks to Tulsa having gone 2-0-0 in the head-to-head series between the sides this season.
3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
5. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 14-7-5, 47pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 5th (32%)
Max. Points Available: 71pts
Magic Number: 9
Up Next: vs. CHS (8/31), at LDN (9/4)
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC is looking at a similar scenario to Legion FC, but with the Hounds having swept its season series with Tulsa it could have a chance to close out a playoff berth on Sunday when it visits Loudoun United FC if Tulsa fails to take victory against Atlanta United 2 on Saturday night. To put that in play, victory at home to the Charleston Battery is required, and Pittsburgh will be keen to pick up all three points regardless as it pushes for a top-four finish and home playoff game.
4. The Miami FC
6. The Miami FC
Record:12-8-7, 43pts
Playoff Odds: 99%
Projected Finish: 6th (38%)
Max. Points Available: 64pts
Magic Number: 13
Up Next: vs. BHM (9/3)
Miami FC is looking well set for a playoff place after its victory against Louisville City FC this past Saturday. If it wants a chance to play at home to start the postseason, it’s probably going to have to take victory against Birmingham Legion FC on home turf this Saturday in what should be a entertaining but strategically-minded game.
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1. Birmingham Legion FC
7. Detroit City FC
Record: 11-6-9, 42pts
Playoff Odds: 95%
Projected Finish: 7th (50%)
Max. Points Available: 66pts
Magic Number: 14
Up Next: vs. IND (9/3)
Le Rouge strode out of Charleston with three points to complete a season sweep and still have a game in hand on Miami when it comes to potentially shifting a spot up the standings. With Indy facing rival Louisville City FC on Wednesday night, Detroit City should be fresh and ready to take another step toward the postseason this weekend at Keyworth Stadium.
4. FC Tulsa
8. FC Tulsa
Record: 10-13-4, 34pts
Playoff Odds: 6%
Projected Finish: 8th (80%)
Max. Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at ATL (9/3)
Tulsa picked up the victory it had to have against Loudoun United FC. The problem was Miami FC and Detroit City FC also won, leaving the gap Tulsa must bridge at eight points with seven games to play. That’s going past the tipping point, meaning the playoffs are probably out of reach ahead of Blair Gavin’s arrival this offseason as the club’s new Head Coach.
5. OKC Energy FC
9. Indy Eleven
Record: 7-14-4, 25pts
Playoff Odds: < 1%
Projected Finish: 9th (48%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. LOU (8/31), at DET (9/3)
Indy Eleven delivered a great result before an excellent crowd on Saturday night to dent San Antonio FC’s aim of the best record in the regular season. SAFC would be very happy indeed if the Boys in Blue could pull a similar result – a draw would actually do to move SAFC back into the driver’s seat – against Louisville City FC in the LIPAFC on Wednesday night.
5. OKC Energy FC
10. Hartford Athletic
Record: 6-15-5, 23pts
Playoff Odds: < 1%
Projected Finish: 10th (43%)
Max. Points Available: 47pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at NY (8/31), at LA (9/5)
Hartford Athletic isn’t going to make up the margin to the playoff places, but it will be hoping to keep putting in good performances to close out the season as it heads to New York looking to complete a season sweep of the Red Bulls II.
5. OKC Energy FC
11. Loudoun United FC
Record: 6-16-3, 21pts
Playoff Odds: < 1%
Projected Finish: 11th (42%)
Max. Points Available: 48pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at MEM (8/31), vs. PIT (9/4)
Loudoun almost delivered a result that would have helped everyone above the playoff line in the Eastern Conference against Tulsa. Memphis 901 FC and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC can’t take them lightly at all this week.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Charleston Battery, Atlanta United 2, New York Red Bulls II

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