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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – August 27-28

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 08/25/22, 4:00PM EDT

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Louisville, San Antonio close in on playoff berths, while race in the West gets major spotlight


Sacramento Republic FC and Oakland Roots SC clash on Saturday night in a key game for the aspirations of both in the current Western Conference playoff race. | Photo courtesy Sacramento Republic FC

Welcome to our latest look at the playoff picture across the USL Championship as we enter this weekend’s action, where the top teams in both conferences will try to seal their postseason places on Saturday night as they vie for the best record in the league and top seed in the 2022 USL Championship Playoffs.

After Wednesday night’s results, though, the big battles this weekend are in the Western Conference, where the spotlight falls on both the teams above and below the playoff line and vying for a top-four finish thanks to some really intriguing matchups.

Here are four games to keep an eye on, and where everyone stands going into the 12-game schedule.

 

Miami FC
August 27 | 7:00 p.m. ET
Riccardo Silva Stadium
Louisville City FC

Louisville City FC needs just a draw to clinch its eighth consecutive postseason berth after FC Tulsa’s loss on Wednesday night, and that result also gave Miami FC another push toward a playoff place with its Magic Number coming down to 17. After LouCity’s victory earlier this season, however, the visitors will be looking to add another win to keep the pressure on San Antonio FC for the best record in the Championship, which is the big prize still available for the current favorite to win the Championship Final.

Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
August 27 | 9:00 p.m. ET
Weidner Field
New Mexico United

Both Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC and New Mexico United picked up morale-boosting victories last weekend as they square off with third place in the Western Conference in the balance. A Switchbacks win would give them a six-point lead on United in the standings, but New Mexico won three out of four meetings between the teams last season, including the inaugural home opener at Weidner Field. With these teams set to meet again on the final day of the regular season, this is a massive game for both.

El Paso Locomotive FC
August 27 | 9:30 p.m. ET
Southwest University Park
Phoenix Rising FC

El Paso Locomotive FC is winless in its last six games, and while it’s still above the playoff line in seventh position it now has only seven games to play. That makes Phoenix Rising FC’s visit one of the big games this weekend, with Phoenix and new Head Coach Juan Guerra sitting with 10 games left to play as they try to make a move. A win for Rising FC would move the visitors within a point of Locomotive FC while still holding three games in hand, and would be a massive blow to El Paso’s playoff chances, making it a must-win for Head Coach John Hutchinson’s side.

Sacramento Republic FC
August 27 | 11:00 p.m. ET
Heart Health Park
Oakland Roots SC

Oakland Roots SC’s victory against San Diego Loyal SC on Wednesday night in interim Head Coach Noah Delgado’s debut was a massive boost for the club’s playoff hopes. Now Roots SC will be aiming to deliver the same result as it visits rival Sacramento Republic FC, which is aiming to bounce back from a loss on the road to Las Vegas Lights FC. A win for Sacramento – which would be their first against Oakland since Roots SC joined the league last season – would keep Republic FC in contention for a top-four finish as it keeps an eye on the Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC vs. New Mexico United clash earlier in the night.

Standings


WESTERN CONFERENCE

2. San Antonio FC
1. San Antonio FC
Record: 18-4-3, 57pt
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 1st (90%)
Max. Points Available: 84pts
Magic Number: 3
Up Next: at IND (8/27)
San Antonio’s draw against Rio Grande Valley FC didn’t quite get it over the line to clinch the first postseason berth, but it will have been very happy to see San Diego Loyal SC’s loss on Wednesday night which pushed it closer to the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. A victory on the road against Indy Eleven on Saturday would seal a playoff berth, and SAFC could also clinch with a draw should either Phoenix Rising FC or Monterey Bay F.C. drop points on Saturday night. There’s even a scenario under which San Antonio clinches if it loses to Indy. With the side already clear of Rio Grande Valley FC and the LA Galaxy II via tiebreakers, SAFC would need two results out of three – Phoenix Rising FC loses to El Paso Locomotive FC, Oakland Roots SC drops points against Sacramento Republic FC, Monterey Bay F.C. drops point against the LA Galaxy II – and it would still be in.
2. San Diego Loyal SC
2. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 16-7-4, 52pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 2nd (77%)
Max. Points Available: 73pts
Magic Number: 8
Up Next: at MB (9/3)
SD Loyal’s loss on Wednesday night left it needing a lot of help to pass San Antonio FC for first place in the final stretch of the season, but it’s still in a strong position to take second with a seven-point lead on current third-placed side Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC. With this weekend off, SD Loyal fans should be watching the Switchbacks’ game with New Mexico United closely, while also hoping for Phoenix Rising FC, Monterey Bay F.C. and the other teams around the playoff line to drop points to move it closer to clinching.
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 14-9-3, 45pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 3rd (39%)
Max. Points Available: 69pts
Magic Number: 15
Up Next: vs. NM (8/27)
The Switchbacks boosted their chances of a third-place finish with their victory last Saturday night against the Tampa Bay Rowdies and can move even closer should it take victory against fourth-placed New Mexico United this weekend. A draw wouldn’t be a bad result, either, but if Colorado Springs loses it brings the possibility of dropping out of the top four back into play depending on how Sacramento Republic FC fares.
4. New Mexico United
4. New Mexico United
Record: 11-6-9, 42pt
Playoff Odds: 95%
Projected Finish: 3rd (26%)
Max. Points Available: 66pts
Magic Number: 18
Up Next: at COS (8/27)
New Mexico United is basically a lock for the playoffs after last Saturday’s victory against Monterey Bay F.C., with its current projected finish sitting equally at 26 percent odds between third and fourth place. It would give its chances of a top-three finish a major boost with victory on the road against current third-placed side Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC on Saturday night and could equally use a win to stay ahead of Sacramento Republic FC. After their game ends, United fans should pull up Sacramento contest and be rooting for Oakland Roots SC in the final game of the night​.
7. Sacramento Republic FC
5. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 11-7-7, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 95%
Projected Finish: 4th (32%)
Max. Points Available: 67pts
Magic Number: 20
Up Next: vs. OAK (8/27)
Sacramento Republic FC couldn’t find a result against Las Vegas Lights FC and dropped back into fifth place as a result with New Mexico United’s victory. With a game in hand on both fourth-placed New Mexico and third-placed Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, the ideal scenario this weekend for the 2022 Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup Finalists would be a draw when those teams square off and taking victory against rival Oakland Roots SC. With Oakland fighting for its playoff life – and coming off a big midweek victory – it has all the makings of a massive contest.
2. El Paso Locomotive FC
6. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 10-9-7, 37pts
Playoff Odds: 48%
Projected Finish: 6th (18%)
Max Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: 23
Up Next: vs. RGV (8/27)
Don’t look now, but Las Vegas Lights FC’s victory against Sacramento Republic FC last weekend catapulted its to the front of the queue in the pack of teams fighting for the last two playoff positions in the Western Conference. A second consecutive win against last-placed Rio Grande Valley FC would burnish those credentials, and if Sacramento Republic FC defeats Oakland Roots SC and the contests between Phoenix Rising FC and El Paso Locomotive FC, and Monterey Bay F.C. and the LA Galaxy II end up drawn, it would be another great weekend for those prospects.
2. El Paso Locomotive FC
7. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 9-11-7, 34pts
Playoff Odds: 28%
Projected Finish: 9th (16%)
Max Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. PHX (8/27)
El Paso Locomotive FC’s loss last weekend against San Diego Loyal SC was a massive hit to its playoff chances, especially after Las Vegas Lights FC’s victory against Sacramento Republic FC and Oakland Roots SC’s Wednesday night win against SD Loyal. This Saturday’s game against Phoenix Rising FC is a classic six-pointer with El Paso running out of games to salvage its season.
4. LA Galaxy II
8. LA Galaxy II
Record: 9-11-6, 33pts
Playoff Odds: 34%
Projected Finish: 8th (15%)
Max. Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at MB (8/27)
The LA Galaxy II were able to grab a point against the Charleston Battery, but their playoff chances went down as Las Vegas Lights FC and Oakland Roots SC picked up big victories against teams above them in the standings. Los Dos could jump back into the playoff places with a victory against Monterey Bay F.C. on Saturday night at Cardinale Stadium in another of this weekend’s six-pointers, with Monterey Bay sitting four points back of the Galaxy II but with two games in hand, which would come into play if MBFC earns victory.
5. Oakland Roots SC
9. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 7-7-12, 33pts
Playoff Odds: 37%
Projected Finish: 8th (16%)
Max. Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at SAC (8/27)
Oakland Roots SC’s victory on the road against San Diego Loyal SC on Wednesday night provided a massive boost to the club’s playoff chances in Noah Delgado’s first game at the helm. A repeat of that against Sacramento Republic FC on Saturday night wouldn’t just potentially move Oakland into the playoff places but would also be very welcome for both Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC and New Mexico United in the race for the top four.
Phoenix Rising FC
10. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 8-11-5, 29pts
Playoff Odds: 28%
Projected Finish: 11th (14%)
Max. Points Available: 59pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at ELP (8/27)
New Head Coach Juan Guerra and his side will get thrown in at the deep end in his first game at the helm with a visit to El Paso Locomotive FC that is crucial for both. The good news for Phoenix is the results last weekend and 10 games to go, its maximum available points mark is tied for seventh-highest alongside Monterey Bay F.C., but that only matters if you go out and win. Defeat El Paso, and it’s game on. Lose, and the hill gets that much steeper.
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
11. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 9-13-2, 29pts
Playoff Odds: 12%
Projected Finish: 12th (22%)
Max. Points Available: 59pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. LA (8/27)
Monterey Bay came back to earth a little bit in its loss to New Mexico United and now faces the same challenge as Phoenix Rising FC going into its final 10 games. MBFC has games in hand on all of the teams above it in the standings – including this Saturday’s opponent the LA Galaxy II – but has to keep picking up victories to make that potential advantage count. A win against Los Dos would be aided by victories by Sacramento Republic FC against Oakland Roots SC, and a draw between El Paso Locomotive FC and Phoenix Rising FC.
3. Orange County SC
12. Orange County SC
Record: 6-10-9, 27pts
Playoff Odds: 3%
Projected Finish: 13th (48%)
Max. Points Available: 54pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at TBR (8/27)
The stakes this weekend for Orange County SC are clear – win against the Tampa Bay Rowdies, or the playoff race is probably over. OCSC was not helped at all by the wins by Las Vegas Lights FC and Oakland Roots SC, and while the gap to the playoff positions is now seven points with nine games to play the number of teams the defending title holders need to move past is also a challenge. Can they find the same magic from last November this time around?
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
13. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 7-11-6, 27pt
Playoff Odds: 21%
Projected Finish: 12th (16%)
Max. Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at LV (8/27)
Rio Grande Valley FC’s draw with San Antonio FC last weekend is going to be one of the great “what if?” moments of the playoff race. Hold on for victory and the Toros would be right back in the middle of the race. Instead, they now need to find a way to win at Las Vegas Lights FC and hope that plenty goes right elsewhere to give their prospects a boost.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

2. Louisville City FC
1. Louisville City FC
Record: 17-3-4, 55pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 1st (84%)
Max. Points Available: 85pts
Magic Number: 1
Up Next: at MIA (8/27)
The combination of Louisville City FC’s victory last weekend against Detroit City FC and FC Tulsa’s defeat on Wednesday night to Hartford Athletic moved LouCity within a point of clinching a playoff place for an eighth consecutive season. Losses by Memphis 901 FC and the Tampa Bay Rowdies strengthened LouCity’s chances of a first-place finish as well. As the side heads to Miami on Saturday, though, it’s going to take aim at the best record in the league, and will be hoping LIPAFC rival Indy Eleven can do it a favor and take points off San Antonio FC in that pursuit.
3. Memphis 901 FC
2. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 16-6-3, 51pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 3rd (39%)
Max. Points Available: 78pts
Magic Number: 5
Up Next: vs. LDN (8/31)
Memphis 901 FC has a bye this weekend, but it could have a chance to clinch a playoff place against Loudoun United FC next Wednesday night if Loudoun can take points off FC Tulsa this weekend. That game – and the Tampa Bay Rowdies’ clash with Orange County SC – will be the two main points of interest for 901 FC fans to monitor this weekend.
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
3. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record:14-5-6, 48pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 2nd (47%)
Max. Points Available: 75pts
Magic Number: 8
Up Next: vs. OC (8/27)
After last weekend’s loss, the Tampa Bay Rowdies can’t quite clinch a playoff berth this weekend even with FC Tulsa’s loss on Wednesday night. If the Rowdies get revenge for their Championship Final defeat last November against Orange County SC on Saturday, and Tulsa drops points against Loudoun United FC later in the night, they would move into range to book their place next weekend at home to Las Vegas Lights FC.
1. Birmingham Legion FC
4. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 14-7-5, 47pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 4th (33%)
Max. Points Available: 71pts
Magic Number: 9
Up Next: vs. NY (8/28)
Birmingham Legion FC regained the potential inside track to a top-four finish thanks to its victory against Memphis 901 FC last weekend and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC’s draw with the New York Red Bulls II. Legion FC will be keeping a close eye on the Hounds’ game against Atlanta United 2 on Saturday night – and the Tampa Bay Rowdies’ clash with Orange County SC – before it looks to take victory against New York on Sunday evening.
3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
5. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 13-7-5, 44pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 5th (35%)
Max. Points Available: 71pts
Magic Number: 12
Up Next: at ATL (8/27)
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC’s draw against the Red Bulls II took away its advantage in the race for a top-four finish over Birmingham Legion FC and now it looks like a battle to the end between the two sides as to which will get to open the playoffs at home. With Atlanta United 2 officially eliminated from playoff contention, the Hounds will be eager to avoid making the same mistake twice, with a win putting pressure on Birmingham to match them on Sunday.
4. The Miami FC
6. The Miami FC
Record:11-8-7, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 98%
Projected Finish: 6th (40%)
Max. Points Available: 64pts
Magic Number: 16
Up Next: vs. LOU (8/27)
Technically, Miami FC still has a bit of work to do to close out its postseason berth, but both it and Detroit City FC’s fans will have been thrilled by Hartford Athletic’s defeat of FC Tulsa on Wednesday night which kept a sizeable gap between them and the last real threat below the playoff line. Miami fell to Louisville City FC earlier this season – after losing when the sides met in the playoffs last year – and any positive result would be good on Saturday, especially if Tulsa can’t get victory against Loudoun United FC.
1. Birmingham Legion FC
7. Detroit City FC
Record: 10-6-9, 39pts
Playoff Odds: 93%
Projected Finish: 7th (50%)
Max. Points Available: 66pts
Magic Number: 17
Up Next: at CHS (8/27)
Just like Miami FC, Detroit City FC was pushed closer to clinching a playoff place by Hartford Athletic’s victory against FC Tulsa on Wednesday night. With a game in hand on Miami, it still has a shot at a sixth-place finish, too. Victory against the Charleston Battery on Saturday night coupled with a Louisville City FC victory in Miami and FC Tulsa dropping points against Loudoun United FC would bring the playoffs that much closer.
4. FC Tulsa
8. FC Tulsa
Record: 9-13-4, 31pts
Playoff Odds: 9%
Projected Finish: 8th (73%)
Max. Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. LDN (8/27)
FC Tulsa raised its playoff chances last weekend with a late victory against Indy Eleven, only to undo that work with Wednesday night’s loss to Hartford Athletic. The side must rebound and take victory against Loudoun United FC this Saturday and hope that both Miami FC loses to Louisville City FC and Detroit City FC loses to the Charleston Battery to make its chances realistic again.
5. OKC Energy FC
9. Hartford Athletic
Record: 6-15-5, 23pts
Playoff Odds: < 1%
Projected Finish: 9th (33%)
Max. Points Available: 47pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at NY (8/31)
Hartford Athletic just crushed FC Tulsa in the past week. First they fell to Miami FC – meaning Tulsa couldn’t close the gap to the playoff places – and then defeated their hosts on Wednesday night to deal a hammer blow to Tulsa’s chances.
5. OKC Energy FC
10. Indy Eleven
Record: 6-14-4, 22pts
Playoff Odds: < 1%
Projected Finish: 9th (34%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SA (8/27)
Indy’s loss against FC Tulsa last weekend continued the side’s slide out of playoff contention, and now all it really has left is to play spoiler for opponents. As San Antonio FC visits Michael A. Carroll Stadium on Saturday, it’ll be Louisville City FC fans who are also rooting for the Boys in Blue before their visit next Wednesday night.
5. OKC Energy FC
11. Loudoun United FC
Record: 6-15-3, 21pts
Playoff Odds: < 1%
Projected Finish: 12th (31%)
Max. Points Available: 51pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at TUL (8/27)
Loudoun eliminated Atlanta United 2 from playoff contention with its victory last Saturday night. If it can pull off a similar result against FC Tulsa this Saturday, it would move both Miami FC and Detroit City FC closer to clinching a playoff spot.
5. OKC Energy FC
12. Charleston Battery
Record:4-16-5, 17pts
Playoff Odds: < 1%
Projected Finish: 12th (34%)
Max. Points Available: 44pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. DET (8/27)
The Charleston Battery’s role as spoiler continues this weekend as they host Detroit City FC. A victory wouldn’t just stave off the potential for mathematical elimination for another week, but would give FC Tulsa a glimmer of hope.
5. OKC Energy FC
14. New York Red Bulls II
Record: 3-18-4, 13pts
Playoff Odds: < 1%
Projected Finish: 14th (60%)
Max. Points Available: 40pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at BHM (8/28)
The New York Red Bulls II could be mathematically eliminated from contention before it takes the field on Sunday evening against Birmingham Legion FC. After last weekend’s draw on the road against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, Legion FC should be wary of taking its visitors lightly.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Atlanta United 2

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