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USL Championship Race to the Playoffs – August 20

By NICHOLAS MURRAY - nicholas.murray@uslsoccer.com, 08/19/22, 12:00PM EDT

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San Antonio can clinch the first playoff berth, while top-four position comes into focus this weekend


San Antonio FC could clinch the first berth in the 2022 USL Championship Playoffs with a victory against South Texas Derby rival Rio Grande Valley FC on Saturday night. | Photo courtesy Christian Inoferio / Rio Grande Valley FC

Welcome to our latest look at the playoff picture across the USL Championship as we enter this weekend’s action, where the first postseason berth can be claimed by Western Conference leader San Antonio FC and Saturday night’s slate brings some key games for positioning in the top four for both conferences.

Here are three games to keep an eye on, and where everyone stands going into the 12-game schedule.

Detroit City FC
August 20 | 7:30 p.m. ET
Keyworth Stadium
Louisville City FC

When Detroit City FC and Louisville City FC got together earlier this season in the Fourth Round of the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup it gave us a great contest that ended up being settled in a penalty shootout in favor of LouCity. There won’t be that prospect this time around, but with Louisville looking to hold firm in first place and Le Rouge coming off a great midweek victory against Birmingham Legion FC that solidified its playoff credentials, this has the potential to have an impact at both ends of the playoff positions. 

Memphis 901 FC
August 20 | 8:30 p.m. ET
AutoZone Park
Birmingham Legion FC

The Southern Harm rivals had differing fortunes on Wednesday night as Memphis 901 FC moved within a point of first place in the Eastern Conference with victory against New Mexico United and Birmingham Legion FC fell at home to Detroit City FC. That has left a seven-point gap between second-placed 901 FC and fourth-placed Legion FC. If Memphis can get revenge for Legion FC’s Anderson Asiedu-powered victory at Protective Stadium, it would pull that much closer to a first home playoff game in club history in October. 

San Antonio FC
August 20 | 9:00 p.m. ET
Toyota Field
Rio Grande Valley FC

San Antonio FC can be the first team to clinch a playoff place if things fall right elsewhere on Saturday night, but the final South Texas Derby of the season has crucial implications for Rio Grande Valley FC. With 11 games to go, the Toros are still in the playoff picture despite a recent winless run. If they can find a way to take their first victory at Toyota Field since the 2017 season, it would be the jump-start the side needs to challenge for a playoff place in the end.

Standings


WESTERN CONFERENCE

2. San Antonio FC
1. San Antonio FC
Record: 18-4-2, 56pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 1st (91%)
Max. Points Available: 86pts
Magic Number: 4
Up Next: vs. RGV (8/20)
Wednesday night’s results left both options open for San Antonio FC to clinch a playoff berth on Saturday night. The first step is to take victory against South Texas Derby rival Rio Grande Valley FC at Toyota Field – which would move SAFC clear of both the Toros and LA Galaxy II, the latter on the head-to-head tiebreaker – and then wait the results of Monterey Bay F.C.’s visit to New Mexico United and Las Vegas Lights FC’s home game against Sacramento Republic FC. Should either Monterey Bay lose, or Las Vegas fail to take victory, then San Antonio will be the first team to clinch a playoff berth.
2. San Diego Loyal SC
2. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 15-6-4, 49pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 2nd (74%)
Max. Points Available: 76pts
Magic Number: 11
Up Next: at ELP (8/20)
SD Loyal’s chances of a top-two finish got a boost on Wednesday night with Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC’s defeat, and it can move closer to clinching a playoff place as it visits El Paso Locomotive FC on Saturday night. The other teams San Diego should be rooting for? Its fellow playoff contender Sacramento Republic FC as it faces Las Vegas Lights FC, and the Charleston Battery as it heads west to face the LA Galaxy II.
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 13-9-3, 42pts
Playoff Odds: 96%
Projected Finish: 3rd (27%)
Max. Points Available: 72pts
Magic Number: 18
Up Next: vs. TBR (8/20)
The Switchbacks’ playoff spot isn’t in jeopardy even after Wednesday night’s defeat against Sacramento Republic FC, but the potential to play a first home playoff game is starting to become less certain with New Mexico United and Republic FC now right in contention to push Colorado Springs down to fifth place. The schedule gets no easier on Saturday with the Tampa Bay Rowdies visiting.
7. Sacramento Republic FC
4. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 11-6-7, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 97%
Projected Finish: 4th (28%)
Max. Points Available: 71pts
Magic Number: 20
Up Next: at LV (8/20)
Republic FC produced arguably the most comprehensive performance of Wednesday night with its victory against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC. It opened the door to a third-placed finish, and Republic FC would move into third place this weekend with a victory on the road against Las Vegas Lights FC should the Switchbacks fall to the Tampa Bay Rowdies.
4. New Mexico United
5. New Mexico United
Record: 10-6-9, 39pts
Playoff Odds: 91%
Projected Finish: 4th (24%)
Max. Points Available: 66pts
Magic Number: 21
Up Next: vs. MB (8/20)
New Mexico went for a new look against Memphis 901 FC, it didn’t quite come off against the Eastern Conference contender but showed some promise for the final stretch. New Mexico’s in the same spot as Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC as it’s still in really good position to reach the playoffs but opening at home is in the balance because of its recent winless run. Getting a victory at home to Monterey Bay F.C. would definitely boost those chances and get some much-needed confidence back against a team that’s in good form coming in.
2. El Paso Locomotive FC
6. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 9-10-7, 34pts
Playoff Odds: 48%
Projected Finish: 6th (16%)
Max Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SD (8/20)
El Paso Locomotive FC got a small boost in its playoff odds from the 538.com predictor thanks to the draw between Orange County SC and Las Vegas Lights FC. Now it’s got to figure out a winning performance to break its downturn in form against second-placed San Diego Loyal SC and push the number back above 50 percent. Victories for Sacramento Republic FC at Las Vegas Lights FC, San Antonio FC against Rio Grande Valley FC, and the Charleston Battery at the LA Galaxy II would help as well.
2. El Paso Locomotive FC
7. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 9-9-7, 34pts
Playoff Odds: 33%
Projected Finish: 9th (16%)
Max Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: 26
Up Next: vs. SAC (8/20)
Earning a point against Orange County SC was positive for Las Vegas Lights FC. It kept the side in control of its path to the playoffs with nine games to go, even if the model isn’t as bullish about Head Coach Enrique Duran’s squad as it might be under the circumstances. Saturday’s home game with Sacramento is going to be a difficult one, but Lights FC could get help from friends in high places.Victories for San Diego Loyal SC as it heads to face El Paso Locomotive FC, San Antonio FC against Rio Grande Valley FC and the Charleston Battery at the LA Galaxy II would all be welcome for Las Vegas.
4. LA Galaxy II
8. LA Galaxy II
Record: 9-11-5, 32pts
Playoff Odds: 40%
Projected Finish: 7th (15%)
Max. Points Available: 59pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. CHS (8/20)
The LA Galaxy II would likely have preferred an Orange County SC victory against Las Vegas Lights FC on Wednesday night, but the draw between the two sides gave Los Dos a chance to move back into the top seven with Las Vegas and El Paso Locomotive FC still only two points ahead in the standings. Getting Preston Judd back from suspension for the return of Augustine Williams and the Charleston Battery is timely as well in what could be a sneakily good game.
5. Oakland Roots SC
9. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 6-7-12, 30pts
Playoff Odds: 22%
Projected Finish: 10th (16%)
Max. Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at SD (8/24)
Oakland Roots SC has this weekend off before it heads to face San Diego Loyal SC next Wednesday night. It’ll be rooting for SD Loyal on Saturday night as it faces El Paso Locomotive FC, as well as San Antonio FC, the Charleston Battery, New Mexico United and Sacramento Republic FC with the hope none of the teams around it in the mix for the final two playoff places gets a victory.
Phoenix Rising FC
10. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 8-11-5, 29pts
Playoff Odds: 30%
Projected Finish: 10th (13%)
Max. Points Available: 59pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at ELP (8/27)
Rising FC is in effectively the same position as fellow bye week participant Oakland Roots SC, rooting for the teams in the top five to take victories as well as the Charleston Battery to try and keep the clubs around it from creating separation in the standings. Lots of scoreboard watching and changing streams on ESPN Plus ahead on Saturday night.
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
11. Monterey Bay F.C.
Record: 9-12-2, 29pts
Playoff Odds: 19%
Projected Finish: 12th (17%)
Max. Points Available: 62pts
Magic Number: 31
Up Next:at NM (8/20)
Monterey Bay F.C. was among the teams happy enough with Las Vegas Lights FC’s draw with Orange County SC, and now it gets the chance to move up at least a pair of spots if it can take victory against New Mexico United on Saturday. That’s likely to be a difficult task with New Mexico fighting for a top-four finish, but it’s one game multiple clubs will have an eye on up and down the standings.
3. Orange County SC
12. Orange County SC
Record: 6-10-9, 27pts
Playoff Odds: 3%
Projected Finish: 13th (49%)
Max. Points Available: 54pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at TBR (8/27)
Orange County SC was unable to take victory at home to Las Vegas Lights FC on Wednesday night, and that makes the seven-point gap it needs to make up that much more difficult. With only nine games to go, it’s not over yet, but OCSC could use some major help from the top five in keeping everyone above it within range.
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
13. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 7-11-5, 26pts
Playoff Odds: 22%
Projected Finish: 12th (16%)
Max. Points Available: 59pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at SA (8/20)
The gap to the playoff places for the Toros is now eight points after Las Vegas Lights FC’s draw with Orange County SC on Wednesday night, still with 11 games to play. Saturday’s South Texas Derby isn’t quite a must-win, then, but getting something out of the game is essential while hoping the rest of the top five in the West and the Charleston Battery can come through with victories.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

2. Louisville City FC
1. Louisville City FC
Record: 16-3-4, 52pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 1st (66%)
Max. Points Available: 85pts
Magic Number: 7
Up Next: at DET (8/20)
Louisville City FC has another challenger besides the Tampa Bay Rowdies to contend with thanks to Memphis 901 FC’s victory on Wednesday night, which put 901 FC just a point back, although LouCity sits with a game in hand. Saturday’s visit to Detroit City FC – a rematch of the tremendous Open Cup game the sides played earlier this year at Keyworth Stadium – is one of the games of the weekend and will shape the playoff picture for both clubs.
3. Memphis 901 FC
2. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 16-5-3, 51pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 3rd (39%)
Max. Points Available: 81pts
Magic Number: 8
Up Next: vs. BHM (8/20)
Memphis 901 FC’s winning streak is at four games after victory against New Mexico United, which moved the side within a point of Louisville City FC for first place entering Saturday’s Southern Harm derby with Birmingham Legion FC. With the Three Sparks currently in fourth place – and seven points behind Memphis in the standings – a victory at home for 901 FC would not only see the side close in on a playoff berth, but a first home game in club history.
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
3. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record:14-4-6, 48pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 2nd (44%)
Max. Points Available: 78pts
Magic Number: 11
Up Next: at COS (8/20)
The 538.com predictor model still likes the Tampa Bay Rowdies’ chances of a second-place finish, and after Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC’s defeat on Wednesday night the Rowdies will be looking for some attacking success in its first trip to Weidner Field on Saturday night. A victory – and dropped points for both Louisville City FC and Memphis 901 FC – would add up to a good weekend for the defending Eastern Conference title holders.
1. Birmingham Legion FC
4. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 13-7-5, 44pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 5th (39%)
Max. Points Available: 71pts
Magic Number: 15
Up Next: at MEM (8/20)
Birmingham Legion FC’s Wednesday night loss to Detroit City FC ceded the inside path to fourth place to Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, which not only has a higher maximum-available points mark but also the decidedly easier matchup this weekend. Birmingham’s visit to Memphis 901 FC would be one of Saturday’s must-see games regardless, but the implications for playoff positioning make it all the more important for both clubs.
3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
5. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 13-7-4, 43pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 4th (48%)
Max. Points Available: 73pts
Magic Number: 16
Up Next: vs. NY (8/20)
Aside from Detroit City FC itself, Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC was the biggest beneficiary of Le Rouge’s victory against Birmingham Legion FC on Wednesday night. The Hounds have a chance to move past Birmingham on Saturday night when they play host to the last-placed New York Red Bulls II, and if Memphis 901 FC wins the Southern Harm derby it could be the moment Pittsburgh begins its road to a home playoff game to start the playoffs.
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1. Birmingham Legion FC
6. Detroit City FC
Record: 10-5-9, 36pts
Playoff Odds: 93%
Projected Finish: 6th (35%)
Max. Points Available: 69pts
Magic Number: 20
Up Next: vs. LOU (8/20)
Detroit City FC’s victory against Birmingham Legion FC on Wednesday night might have been the moment Le Rouge unofficially secured a playoff berth. While there’s still the official countdown to the playoffs to be completed, sitting with an 11-point lead on FC Tulsa with Tulsa having only 10 games to play, DCFC is in a very strong position. It would add to that with a positive result against Louisville City FC at Keyworth Stadium in what should be a must-see game.
4. The Miami FC
7. The Miami FC
Record:10-8-7, 37pts
Playoff Odds: 93%
Projected Finish: 7th (43%)
Max. Points Available: 64pts
Magic Number: 22
Up Next:at HFD (8/20)
Miami FC slipped back into seventh place after Detroit City FC’s victory on Wednesday night at Birmingham Legion FC, but as it prepares to take on Hartford Athletic on Saturday night the other game it will be paying closest attention to is FC Tulsa’s home game with Indy Eleven. A win on the road, and points dropped by Tulsa, would make Miami’s position almost unassailable.
4. FC Tulsa
8. FC Tulsa
Record: 8-12-4, 28pts
Playoff Odds: 14%
Projected Finish: 8th (62%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. IND (8/20)
FC Tulsa’s playoff chances took a major hit on Wednesday night when Detroit City FC took victory against Birmingham Legion FC, dropping by six percent. The side is now facing a must-win at home to Indy Eleven on Saturday night while hoping that Louisville City FC takes victory against DCFC, and Hartford Athletic takes victory against Miami FC.
5. OKC Energy FC
9. Indy Eleven
Record: 6-13-4, 22pts
Playoff Odds: < 1%
Projected Finish: 9th (39%)
Max. Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next:at TUL (8/20)
It was going to take a remarkable turnaround for Indy to make it to the playoffs after its recent struggles, and Detroit City FC’s win on the road at Birmingham Legion FC only made that hill steeper. If the Boys in Blue can find victory on the road against FC Tulsa, it would keep those slim hopes alive, but it would be more likely to be the destruction of Tulsa’s playoff chances than anything.
5. OKC Energy FC
10. Hartford Athletic
Record:5-14-5, 20pts
Playoff Odds: < 1%
Projected Finish: 12th (31%)
Max. Points Available: 51pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. MIA (8/20)
Hartford Athletic is one of the teams outside the playoff picture others will be rooting for this weekend. A victory against Miami FC would be a massive help to FC Tulsa.
5. OKC Energy FC
11. Loudoun United FC
Record: 5-15-3, 19pts
Playoff Odds: < 1%
Projected Finish: 12th (31%)
Max. Points Available: 51pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. ATL (8/20)
Loudoun is still mathematically alive, which is something. It could make Atlanta mathematically eliminated with a victory on Saturday night.
5. OKC Energy FC
12. Atlanta United 2
Record: 4-18-4, 16pts
Playoff Odds: < 1%
Projected Finish: 13th (46%)
Max. Points Available: 40pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at LDN (8/20)
Atlanta is facing mathematical elimination this weekend after Detroit City FC’s victory on Wednesday night. If it doesn’t take victory against Loudoun United FC, that’s likely it depending on Miami FC’s result.
5. OKC Energy FC
13. Charleston Battery
Record: 4-16-4, 16pts
Playoff Odds: < 1%
Projected Finish: 11th (30%)
Max. Points Available: 46pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at LA (8/20)
The Charleston Battery are going to have a lot of fans from other clubs in the Western Conference hoping they can pick up victory on the road against the LA Galaxy II. You’d suspect former Los Dos forward Augustine Williams would enjoy leading a victory at Dignity Health Sports Park, too.
5. OKC Energy FC
14. New York Red Bulls II
Record: 3-18-3, 12pts
Playoff Odds: < 1%
Projected Finish: 14th (74%)
Max. Points Available: 42pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at PIT (8/20)
The New York Red Bulls II face the tall task of visiting Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC on Saturday night. If they can earn a result, it would be a major boost for Birmingham Legion FC and its pursuit of a top-four finish. If New York falls, though, it could be mathematically eliminated after Detroit City FC’s midweek win.

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