It’s simple when you think about it: my club is four wins away from a title.

That’s often been the beauty of the USL Championship Playoffs, where one-and-done contests have allowed for the cream to rise to the top, and for a fair share of upsets and surprises over the year.

As democratic and open as the bracket always seems, there are some teams that are here for the long-haul and others for which there is the parting gift of the start of the offseason.

Here’s a look at the four tiers of contenders as the 2021 USL Championship Playoffs, presented by TwinSpires, gets ready to begin.

No team has won more games this season than the Rowdies, who in the defense of their Eastern Conference title a season ago went out and got better in almost every facet against a demanding division. They’ve got the best defense in the league – only 23 goals conceded and 14 shutouts – and a talisman in Sebastian Guenzatti leading the attack with what’s been his best campaign yet in the club’s colors.

If there’s a concern here, it’s what happens if the attack misfires at the wrong time. Tampa Bay ranks third in the league in Expected Goals at 57.45 but has only scored 51 times, excluding a pair of own goals. Averaging 1.71 goals per game over a season is really impressive but there’s no-one else above 10 goals individually aside from Guenzatti, who also leads the team in assists.

If the Rowdies’ captain misfires, and there have been some of those this season – Tampa Bay fans won’t want me to remind them about the game against Hartford Athletic at home in July that saw the Rowdies record 3.98xG and lose 1-0 – then things could evaporate quickly.

But as strong as the Rowdies have been game-in and game-out, and with homefield advantage running through Al Lang Stadium, Tampa Bay certainly feels like the team to beat this postseason.

It’s a pretty odd sight, looking at Rising FC’s leaders this season. Not because of who’s there, but because of who isn’t.

After consecutive Most Valuable Player campaigns, Solomon Asante hasn’t quite seemed himself over the second half of the season. He’s gone without a goal in 13 games going into the playoffs, by far his longest run in Rising FC colors, while also only recording one assist in the same span.

And yet, here Phoenix are once again with the best record in the Western Conference and an undefeated regular season home record this campaign, a first in club history. That’s a testament to the quality this side has all over the field with Santi Moar picking up the goalscoring duties and both Aodhan Quinn and Arturo Rodriguez making big impacts in their first seasons in the desert. Add in a solid defensive record – especially with Andre Rawls between the sticks – and you’ve got a squad that matches up to its predecessors.

If Asante can get on track this month, though, it would help Phoenix potentially find another level, and the one trophy that has eluded it so far in its history.

There’s been a lot that feels familiar about Louisville City FC this season.

A tremendous attacking season from Cameron Lancaster that saw him bag 20 goals for the second time in a regular season, consistent production – especially at home – and the club’s big players like Paolo DelPiccolo, Corben Bone and now Jonathan Gomez stepping to the fore.

But there have also been some worrying signs as well. The biggest has been the club’s propensity to leak goals, especially late in halves. By the underlying numbers, it should be LouCity that has the best defensive record in the Championship this season, not the Tampa Bay Rowdies, with their Expected Goals Against mark of 28.72xGA the best in the league. Instead, Louisville tied for seventh with 37 goals against and tied for 14th with only seven shutouts.

As the side proved in Birmingham on the final day of the season, this is still Louisville City FC, and they can produce when they must. But can they do it for four consecutive weekends?

If there’s a good trait for a team likely to go deep in the postseason to have, it would be “doesn’t lose much.”

Locomotive FC has suffered the fewest defeats in the Championship this season and might have the most balanced side with four different players having recorded at least six goals and four different players having recorded at least five assists. Factor in the homefield advantage the side has gained at Southwest University Park – where its undefeated streak is currently at 25 games, and Locomotive FC gained 14 points from a losing position throughout this season, tied for the most on home turf – and you have a team that after back-to-back trips to the Western Conference Final in its first two years could be primed to go at least one step further.

The biggest key for El Paso this postseason, however, will be how efficient it can be in putting games away. Over its first six postseason contests, it has only won twice in 90 minutes and last year went to penalty shootouts in all three rounds before being eliminated by Phoenix Rising FC.

The club’s attack is far more efficient than it was a season ago, but it still had 20 of its 32 games decided by a goal or ending all square. As the margin for error tightens, Locomotive FC has what it takes, but now needs to execute when it matters most.

There are reasons to doubt San Antonio’s candidacy as a challenger this postseason. The biggest is its lack of attacking efficiency, where the side would at times seem capable of hammering away at an opponent without finding any end result.

The difference between SAFC’s Expected Goals mark this season of 57.28xG – fourth-best in the league – and its 50 goals – tied for 12th – is the difference between this team reaching the playoffs comfortably and challenging El Paso Locomotive FC for the division title.

And yet, that’s in part why San Antonio could be the best challenger outside the division winners to make a run at its first silverware in club history this November. When the side connects, it can challenge anyone, and beyond that it is a very difficult, physical team to play against. It’s not the sort of group you want to see on the other side of the field because of the intensity it brings every game.

Add in that San Antonio is unlikely to be intimidated by going on the road – it won seven games away from home, matching its seven wins at Toyota Field – and it feels like a squad that is built for this time of year.

There were already the makings of a solid squad in Charlotte at the start of the season. The addition of Irvin Parra to the attack and shrewd loan signings like Brandt Bronico and Marcelo Palomino joining the veteran core of Dane Kelly, Enzo Martinez, Hugh Roberts, Brandon Miller and others had the side in a solid spot.

From then to now, however, the Independence have become a far greater machine. Charlotte has both quality and depth which fueled its rise in the Atlantic Division to host a playoff game for a second consecutive season on Saturday.

The trio of former Premier League winner Christian Fuchs and former Newcastle United duo Sylvain Marveaux and Gabriel Obertan were the headlines here, and rightly so. All three have played a positive role in the club’s success in the second half of the season, with Marveaux leading the team on five assists and notching six goals. But there are others, like U.S. youth international Adam Armour and Chilean international Jose Bizama that have added their own qualities.

The question for the Independence will be how it fares should it get past Memphis 901 FC with the road having been far more treacherous than home this season. The quality here, however, is unquestionable.

As has been the case during Head Coach Bob Lilley’s tenure since 2018, there’s a lot to feel good about with the Hounds as they enter a fourth consecutive postseason. The squad performed well in a top-heavy division, was one of only two teams to take victory on the road against the Tampa Bay Rowdies all season and has all the pieces you’d think a contender would need.

That’s led by the two new additions up front in Russell Cicerone and Alex Dixon, who powered the side past the 50-goal threshold for the third time in the Championship era, while goalkeeper Danny Vitiello was again solid between the sticks as while Pittsburgh didn’t always look as locked down as usual, it remained tied for the third-best defense in the league overall.

Whether the Hounds can succeed properly in the postseason for the first time is still an open debate. For all the club’s regular season success – Pittsburgh’s 62 wins are third-most in the league since the start of 2018 – the Hounds have only won their opening game once in the Championship Playoffs and have gone 0-4 on the road. If Pittsburgh’s going to win a title, it could have to even that record at .500 by the end of its run.

You could probably make an argument that either Birmingham Legion FC or Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC’s odds to start this postseason might be higher, if only they weren’t squaring off with one another in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals.

Final-game disappointment aside, however, it does feel as though Legion FC took a solid step forward in Year 3 of the club’s history as Neco Brett produced in front of goal and the back line took care of business in impressive fashion as well, conceding the second-fewest goals in the league at 31 to join the Tampa Bay Rowdies as the only two teams with sub-1.00 goals-against averages for the season.

The underlying numbers indicate, though, that Legion FC overperformed defensively this season. It’s Expected Goals Against mark of 40.29xGA was higher than that of non-playoff sides Austin Bold FC and Sacramento Republic FC, while no-one outside of Brett scored more than six goals. There could be a run here, but it doesn’t seem like a sure thing.

You know what a good dark horse pick has? Momentum. And after this past weekend, there’s no team on a longer winning streak in the Championship than Orange County SC. Five consecutive victories pushed the side up to second place in the Pacific Division and into a home game for the first time since the 2018 Western Conference Final.

That’s the good news. The bad news is OCSC really looks like it rode its luck to get there. It only conceded one goal on an Expected Goals Against mark of 5.84xGA across those five games and needed stoppage time winners to beat Las Vegas Lights FC and the LA Galaxy II in its last two games. Ronaldo Damus seems like the only consistent scoring option, too, so there’s a chance this is fool’s gold rather than the real deal.

In contrast to Orange County SC, its opponent on Saturday in the Western Conference Quarterfinals has gone the opposite way. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC is 1-2-2 in its last five games, including a 3-0 defeat to San Antonio FC on Saturday in a matchup that just proved awful for the Switchbacks all season.

Things went so poorly for the Switchbacks, in fact, that even Hadji Barry missed out on the single-season scoring record when he had a penalty saved for the first time this season in the club’s penultimate game against Real Monarchs SLC. It’s clear the team hasn’t been the same since Michee Ngalina’s departure to Los Angeles FC, but if there is someone who knows how to rally talent on the road to spring a postseason upset, it’s Switchbacks Head Coach Brendan Burke. He did it with the Philadelphia Union II in Pittsburgh three years ago – spoiling the Hounds’ first home playoff game at Highmark Stadium – and he could accomplish something similar here.

It’s probably a fair question to ask what might have happened if Miami hadn’t been located in the most top-heavy division in the league this season, but that’s in a way why they’re here. Yes, they’re a No. 4-seed and would almost certainly have to go on the road to claim the title, but have you looked at that roster? There is talent, speed and experience to burn here, and that can go a long way.

After overcoming some early season jitters, Miami’s attack ended up meeting expectations in terms of the chances it produced with an Expected Goals mark of 52.05xG and 55 goals. It also has a formidable central midfield pairing of Bolu Akinyode and Speedy Williams ahead of the experience of Paco Craig to guide the back line. It’s going to be a long road to get there, but Miami will be dangerous against Louisville City FC, and anyone else should it advance.

The Toros’ run to reach the playoffs with three consecutive wins in eight days was as remarkable as their three-game winning streak to start the season. That opening brought a lot of optimism about where this new era was headed until RGVFC’s second-half tumble began, but in terms of where the side ended up there’s a bright future ahead.

Also ahead, a date with Phoenix Rising FC on the road, where the Toros lost 3-1 earlier this season. Cross your fingers, but it might need to wait until next year to solidify and get after the silverware.

There have been times this season where the collection of talent at SD Loyal has lived up to the clear potential it has. The problem has been the times where it has not. That unpredictability can be seen in the 15 points San Diego has gained after trailing, and in the 19 points it dropped after holding a lead.

It certainly makes for an entertaining product, but it doesn’t really make for a title contender right now.

There might be no better story going into this postseason than 901 FC’s triumphant run to a third-place finish in the Central Division. For a team that had struggled for most of its first two years, it found an identity late in 2020 when Head Coach Ben Pirmann took over and he and the front office then went and found players that could make that vision happen.

Whatever happens from here is probably a bonus, especially with a team as tough as the Charlotte Independence waiting, although you never know given how well this side has been playing of late.

There is all manner of talent on the FC Tulsa roster, but the swings the side’s season took left it with the Victory Wrench and not much else to show for it aside from a second consecutive playoff berth.

There’s enough talent in Tulsa’s squad that it could pull an upset against the Rowdies – it showed that against Louisville City FC on September 3 at Lynn Family Stadium – but there just hasn’t been enough consistency overall to trust this side to make a run.

Oakland has done remarkably well to get this far, coming through with the wins it needed to run down the LA Galaxy II at the end of the campaign. That’s almost certainly all for this year as it tries to pull off what would be an absolute stunner of an upset at El Paso Locomotive FC on Friday night.