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USL Championship Playoff Projections – Oct. 30

By USLChampionship.com Staff, 10/28/21, 2:00PM EDT

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Two final playoff berths, one division title and three home playoff games are up for grabs this weekend


Birmingham Legion FC and Louisville City FC will battle for top spot in the Central Division on Saturday night at BBVA Field, one of a host of key games on the final Saturday of the regular season. | Photo courtesy Birmingham Legion FC

The last midweek action of the 2021 USL Championship season produced results that leave key situations to be decided in all four divisions, as well as the honor of claiming the best record in the league, as we go to a 15-game Showdown Saturday to complete the regular season. 

The final playoff places in the Mountain Division and Pacific Division will both be decided, with three teams in each still carrying postseason hopes. One division title will also be decided in a marquee head-to-head matchup as Birmingham Legion FC hosts Louisville City FC. 

In addition, second place – and the home playoff game that accompanies that position – is still undecided in the Atlantic, Mountain and Pacific Divisions. We have one head-to-head matchup there as well as San Antonio FC hosts Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC in the Mountain, while the Charlotte Independence and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC in the Atlantic and Orange County SC and San Diego Loyal SC will be looking for victories while keeping an eye on results elsewhere.  

Here are four games to keep an eye on this weekend, and where everyone stands as we reach the final day of the season. 

Matches to Watch


Birmingham Legion FC
Central
Saturday, October 30
7:30 PM ET
BBVA Field
Louisville City FC
Central

As little as there has been to separate Birmingham Legion FC and Louisville City FC on the field this season – they’re 1-1-1 with LouCity holding a +1 edge in goal differential in their prior meetings – it’s no surprise the final game of the season we had all been anticipating as a potential showdown has come to pass. Legion FC is in the better form of the two sides with a nine-game undefeated streak that has seen the side win six of its last seven outings and needs only a draw to claim first place with a two-point edge at kickoff. LouCity has been more up and down – they’re 3-2-0 in their last five games – after a road-heavy final third of the season, but this is the team that has been to six consecutive Eastern Conference Finals and always seems to come through when the chips are down. As strong as both lineups are, led by leading scorers Neco Brett of Birmingham on 18 goals and Cameron Lancaster of Louisville on 20, this should be a tremendous game worthy of a division title decider. 

Rio Grande Valley FC
Mountain
Saturday, October 30
8:30 PM ET
H-E-B Park
El Paso Locomotive FC
Mountain

Rio Grande Valley set itself up for one of the biggest games in its history on Saturday night against El Paso Locomotive FC when it came through with a 3-1 win on Wednesday night against Real Monarchs SLC. With the win, the Toros moved ahead of New Mexico United into fourth place and in control of its path to the playoffs. Win against Locomotive FC and the side will return to the postseason for the first time since its inaugural 2016 campaign. If it fails to win, though, New Mexico will be waiting to potentially grab fourth place back as it hosts the Monarchs to close its season, and there have been fewer teams in North America more difficult to beat than El Paso this year. Locomotive FC has only suffered three defeats all season – the first coming against the Toros in June – and still has something to play for itself with the best record in the Western Conference still up for grabs if it takes victory and Phoenix Rising FC loses to the Tacoma Defiance in its final game. El Paso gained some revenge for its defeat with a 3-1 win on home turf in August, now New Mexico fans will be hoping they can repeat the performance and open the door for United to walk through. 

Austin Bold FC
Mountain
Saturday, October 30
9:00 PM ET
Bold Stadium
Charlotte Independence
Atlantic

One of three interconference matchups that dot the final day of the season, Austin Bold FC’s first meeting with the Charlotte Independence has high stakes for both clubs. In Bold FC’s case, it must win to have a chance at reaching the playoffs as it currently sits three points behind fourth-placed Rio Grande Valley FC and two behind New Mexico United. Austin holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Toros, and will have a close eye on what’s happening elsewhere while in action. For Charlotte, the math is simpler: win and the Independence get a home game to start the playoffs and could get two if Louisville City FC takes the Central Division title ahead of Birmingham. If the Independence fail to take all three points – as they have in each of their past six games – then it would open the door for Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC to jump past them into second place if the Hounds take victory against Hartford Athletic at Highmark Stadium and send Charlotte on the road to start the postseason. 

LA Galaxy II
Pacific
Saturday, October 30
10:30 PM ET
Dignity Healthy Sports Park
Orange County SC
Pacific

A couple of weeks ago, the LA Galaxy II were looking certain to be part of the postseason for a third consecutive season. After back-to-back defeats, they’re still in control of their path but have both Tacoma Defiance and Oakland Roots only a point behind as we reach the final game of the regular season. That means if Los Dos take victory against Orange County SC on Saturday – a side they’re 2-0-1 against this season – then they’re in. If they don’t? The door opens for Oakland as it hosts Sporting Kansas City II and Tacoma as it visits Phoenix Rising FC. There has been a tilt toward the Galaxy II in this series in its history that has returned in recent meetings with Orange County – LA defeated OCSC to clinch its playoff place last year in its penultimate game of the season – and the visitors will be eager to bring an end to that with a victory or a draw in this meeting, which would clinch second place in the Pacific Division and a home game to start the playoffs. If Los Dos take victory, however, it would open the door for San Diego Loyal SC to jump past Orange County into second place and host the first playoff game in the club’s history. 

Standings


Pacific Division

Phoenix Rising FC
1. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 20-5-6, 66pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (Clinched)
Max. Points Available: 69pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. TAC (10/30)
Rising FC needs only a draw against Tacoma to clinch the best record in the Western Conference – should it end level on points with Mountain Division title-winner El Paso Locomotive FC, Rising FC would take the homefield tiebreaker with more total wins – but if it’s going to claim the best record in the league it has to take victory and see the Tampa Bay Rowdies lose to Las Vegas Lights FC in its final regular season game.
2. Orange County SC
2. Orange County SC
Record: 14-10-7, 49pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (81%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at LA (10/30)
Orange County can clinch second place in the Pacific Division if it takes a draw on the road against the LA Galaxy II on Saturday night as it holds a 2-1-1 record and the head-to-head against third-placed San Diego Loyal SC. A loss to Los Dos would open the door for San Diego to move past Orange County and sent it on the road to either San Antonio FC or Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.
3. San Diego Loyal SC
3. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 14-12-5, 47pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 3rd (81%)
Max. Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next:at SAC (10/30)
SD Loyal needs both a victory against Sacramento Republic FC on the road on Saturday night and for Orange County SC to lose to the LA Galaxy II on Saturday night. If San Diego fails to win, or Orange County gets a draw, then SD Loyal will hit the road in San Antonio or Colorado Springs to start the postseason.
4. LA Galaxy II
4. LA Galaxy II
Record: 11-14-6, 39pts
Playoff Odds: 64%
Projected Finish: 4th (64%)
Max. Points Available: 42pts
Magic Number: 3pts
Up Next: vs. OC (10/30)
Consecutive defeats have narrowed the Galaxy II’s margin for error going to the final game of the season. They will still be in if they win against Orange County SC at home, though, and they are undefeated against OCSC with a 2-0-1 record so far this season. If LA earns a draw, it would also get in if neither Oakland Roots SC or Tacoma Defiance takes victory in their final game, and if it loses there is still a way in if both Oakland and Tacoma lose, or Tacoma loses and Oakland draws, which would send Los Dos through on head-to-head goal differential over Oakland. If LA loses and both Oakland and Tacoma draw, however, Los Dos would be eliminated as the Defiance would advance on total in-division points with 37, while if LA and Oakland both lose and Tacoma draws to move level with Los Dos on 39, the Defiance would advance on head-to-head tiebreaker.
5. Oakland Roots SC
5. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 10-13-8, 38pts
Playoff Odds: 28%
Projected Finish: 5th (41%)
Max. Points Available: 41pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SKC (10/30)
The good news for Oakland is on paper it has the easiest assignment of the three remaining teams alive for the final playoff place as it hosts a Sporting Kansas City II side that has been eliminated and lost five in a row, including a six-goal drubbing last time out against Birmingham Legion FC. If Roots SC doesn’t take victory, however, it cannot advance as either the LA Galaxy II would advance in a head-to-head tiebreaker on 39 points, or Tacoma Defiance would on total in-division points if the three teams end up deadlocked on the same point total with no team holding a direct head-to-head tiebreaker over each of the other two. Should Oakland and Tacoma both take victory while the Galaxy II fail to win, though, Roots SC would advance as it holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Defiance.
6. Tacoma Defiance
6. Tacoma Defiance
Record: 10-13-8, 38pts
Playoff Odds: 9%
Projected Finish: 6th (64%)
Max. Points Available: 41pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next:at PHX (10/30)
The Defiance come in with the biggest challenge of the three sides still alive for fourth place on the road against Phoenix Rising FC but could only need a draw to advance should other results go their way. With a win, the Defiance would need both Oakland Roots SC and the LA Galaxy II to fail to take victory to move into fourth as if Roots SC also took victory to leave the teams level on 41 points with LA eliminated after a draw or a loss, then Oakland would claim the head-to-head tiebreaker. If Tacoma drew and both the Galaxy II and Oakland lost, Tacoma would advance on its head-to-head advantage over the Galaxy II. Finally, if Tacoma and Oakland both earned a draw and the Galaxy II lost, the tiebreakers would go the way of the Defiance with 37 in-division points with none of the three sides holding direct head-to-head tiebreakers over the other two. 
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Sacramento Republic FC, Las Vegas Lights FC

Mountain Division

2. El Paso Locomotive FC
1. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 18-3-10, 64pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (Clinched)
Max Points Available: 67pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at RGV (10/30)
El Paso still has a shot at the best record in the Western Conference if it takes victory against Rio Grande Valley FC and Phoenix Rising FC falls at home to Tacoma Defiance. With New Mexico United needing the Toros to drop points to have a chance at a postseason spot, we’re in a very strange place where rivals become frenemies for a night.
2. San Antonio FC
2. San Antonio FC
Record: 13-8-10, 49pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish:2nd (50%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. COS (10/30)
San Antonio will take second place in the Mountain Division with a draw or a win against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC at Toyota Field on Saturday thanks to their 2-0-1 record in the head-to-head series. The hosts would certainly like to get the attack firing on all cylinders again, too, after a three-game winless run.
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 13-8-10, 49pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (50%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at SA (10/30)
The Switchbacks can in no small measure go for broke on Saturday night against San Antonio FC with only a win good enough to move them into second place and earn an inaugural home playoff game at Weidner Field. With Hadji Barry also looking to make history with his 26th goal of the season, expect plenty of attacking purpose from the visitors.
4. Rio Grande Valley FC
4. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 12-11-8, 44pts
Playoff Odds: 62%
Projected Finish: 4th (63%)
Max. Points Available: 47pts
Magic Number: 3pts
Up Next: vs. ELP (10/30)
The Toros got the job done against Real Monarchs SLC on Wednesday night to set up a win-and-you’re-in scenario for their finale against El Paso Locomotive FC. Victory would make certain of a playoff place for the first time since the club’s inaugural season in 2016, and RGVFC is one of only three teams to have defeated El Paso this season which will be on the minds of both clubs. If the Toros only draw, it would leave the door open for New Mexico United to jump back past them with a win against the Monarchs earlier on Saturday night. If the Toros lose, they would still have a chance if New Mexico can only manage a draw against Real as they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over United. If Austin Bold FC finds a way to win against the Charlotte Independence to create a three-way tie on 44 points, however, then RGVFC would be eliminated as New Mexico holds the upper hand for the third tiebreaker of in-division points at 36pts to RGVFC’s 31pts and Austin’s 29pts with none of the three sides holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over both of their rivals.
5. New Mexico United
4. New Mexico United
Record: 11-10-10, 43pts
Playoff Odds: 37%
Projected Finish: 5th (60%)
Max. Points Available: 46pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SLC (10/30)
New Mexico goes into its final game of the season on Saturday night facing the same scenario as it did in its inaugural campaign in 2019 – win and hope the other result goes your way. If United only draws and Rio Grande Valley FC loses, putting them level on points, the Toros would hold the head-to-head advantage and advance. Should Austin Bold FC make it a three-way tie by defeating the Charlotte Independence – leaving none of the three sides with the head-to-head tiebreaker over both the others – it would move to in-division points where New Mexico would hold the edge as it enters with an insurmountable lead in that tiebreaker with 36 in-division points ahead of the Toros, currently on 31pts, and Bold FC, currently on 29pts.
6. Austin Bold FC
6. Austin Bold FC
Record: 10-10-11, 41pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 6th (96%)
Max. Points Available: 44pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. CLT (10/30)
Austin must win its final game of the season to have a chance to advance to the postseason, which it would achieve if both Rio Grande Valley FC lose to El Paso Locomotive FC and New Mexico United lose to Real Monarchs SLC in their matchups. That sequence would move Bold FC ahead of the Toros thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker. If New Mexico earns a draw while the Toros lose, Austin would be eliminated on in-division points with none of the three sides holding a direct head-to-head over the other two, and United sitting in an uncatchable position with 36 in-division points going into Saturday with RGVFC on 31pts and Bold FC on 29pts.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Real Monarchs SLC

Central Division

1. Birmingham Legion FC
1. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 18-7-6, 60pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (65%)
Max. Points Available: 63pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. LOU (10/30)
Birmingham needs only a draw to clinch the Central Division against Louisville City FC on Saturday night at BBVA Field, and a point would also be enough to clinch at least two home games in the postseason on 61 points. Outside the Tampa Bay Rowdies, only the Charlotte Independence can also reach 61 points in the regular season with wins in its final two games, but Legion FC holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Charlotte after their 2-1 win when the sides met on September 26.
2. Louisville City FC
2. Louisville City FC
Record: 17-7-7, 58pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (65%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at BHM (10/30)
LouCity must take victory against Birmingham Legion FC to jump back into first place after the final game of the season on Saturday at BBVA Field, but should that come to pass it might not be enough to earn hosting rights over the Charlotte Independence in a potential Conference Semifinal if both teams end on 61 points. With no head-to-head meeting this season, LouCity’s 18 wins would be outstripped by Charlotte’s 19 wins should it win its final outing. That would send the potential matchup to American Legion Memorial Stadium in the Eastern Conference Semifinals should LouCity win the division and both teams advance.
3. Memphis 901 FC
3. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 13-10-8, 47pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 3rd (Clinched)
Max. Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. IND (10/30)
Memphis got the win it was looking for against FC Tulsa to lock up third place in the Central Division, and now will keep an eye on the games featuring the Charlotte Independence and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC to find out where they’ll be heading to open their first postseason campaign.
4. FC Tulsa
4. FC Tulsa
Record: 13-13-5, 44pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 4th (Clinched)
Max. Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. OKC (10/30)
Tulsa’s loss to Memphis 901 FC means it is now locked into the fourth spot in the Central Division and going to head to face the Tampa Bay Rowdies in what will be the first meeting between the two sides to open the postseason. The side will be looking to put the defeat behind it, and try to gather some momentum, in the final Black Gold Derby of the season this Saturday as it closes out the campaign at ONEOK Field.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: OKC Energy FC, Indy Eleven, Atlanta United 2, Sporting Kansas City II

Atlantic Division

1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 22-7-2, 68pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (Clinched)
Max. Points Available: 71pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at LV (10/30)
The Rowdies know their opponent in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals will be FC Tulsa after Wednesday’s action, but their focus will still be on clinching the best record in the Championship with a win or a draw against Las Vegas Lights FC on Saturday at Cashman Field thanks to its head-to-head tiebreaker over Phoenix Rising FC.
2. Charlotte Independence
2. Charlotte Independence
Record: 18-9-4, 58pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (63%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at ATX (10/30)
The Independence got past Loudoun United FC on Wednesday night to remain on target for second place, but now must do the same against an Austin Bold FC side on Saturday in a game that sees the hosts in must-win mode for their playoff life as well. Should Charlotte fail to take victory against Austin, it would leave the door open for Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC to jump past them with a win at home to Hartford Athletic in the Hounds’ final game. If the Hounds only draw against Hartford, however, then Charlotte’s result becomes immaterial as the Independence hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Pittsburgh with a 3-1-0 record.
3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 17-8-6, 57pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 3rd (63%)
Max. Points Available: 60pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. HFD (10/30)
Pittsburgh earned its three points in Miami to take the battle for second place to the final day of the campaign. The Hounds must win against Hartford Athletic on Saturday night to have a chance at a home game to open the playoffs, which would happen if the Charlotte Independence fail to take victory against Austin Bold FC on Saturday. Should Pittsburgh draw and Charlotte lose to Austin, leaving the teams level on points, the Independence would retain second place due to the head-to-head tiebreaker (3-1-0) they hold over the Hounds.
4. The Miami FC
4. The Miami FC
Record: 15-10-6, 51pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 4th (Clinched)
Max. Points Available: 54pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at CHS (10/30)
Miami is now locked into the fourth spot in the Atlantic Division standings, and will wait to see if its playoff opener will be against Birmingham Legion FC or Louisville City FC after their game to decide first place in the Central Division on Saturday.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Charleston Battery, Hartford Athletic, New York Red Bulls II, Loudoun United FC

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