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USL Championship Playoff Projections – Oct. 26-27

By USLChampionship.com Staff, 10/26/21, 1:00PM EDT

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Memphis, Tulsa face key showdown, Toros look to move into playoff position


Memphis 901 FC and FC Tulsa square off on Wednesday night with a chance that third place in the Central Division could be settled by the end of the night at AutoZone Park. | Photo courtesy Eric Glemser / Memphis 901 FC

There is one week – and 20 games – to go in the 2021 USL Championship season and as it stands we’re going to Showdown Saturday with both remaining playoff places up for grabs, plus one division title and three second-place finishes that will set which teams get to open the postseason between November 5-7 on their home turf. 

Three games in the limited midweek slate on Wednesday night feature in those battles. Rio Grande Valley FC gets its chance to remain at the driver’s wheel in the Mountain Division and the matchups featuring the three teams in the Atlantic Division still fighting for second place offer a unique situation as Miami FC and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC try to catch the Charlotte Independence. 

Here are three games to keep an eye on this week, and where everyone stands with a week to go. 

Matches to Watch


The Miami FC
Atlantic
Wednesday, October 27
7:00 PM ET
FIU Stadium
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Atlantic

The unique circumstances that bring Miami FC and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC back together a FIU Stadium to complete a game the Hounds hold a 1-0 lead in with 23 minutes to go aside, there’s no question that this game is absolutely pivotal to both clubs and their final positions. Pittsburgh will be assured of third place if it retains its lead and remain in contention for second place as the Charlotte Independence look for all three points in their penultimate game earlier in the evening against last-placed Loudoun United FC at American Legion Memorial Stadium. For Miami, there has to be a turnaround to take victory to remain in with a chance at second place, but if it can’t come back – as it has twice previously this season to win against the Hounds – it will lock into fourth place and a trip to either Birmingham Legion FC or Louisville City FC to start the postseason. 

Memphis 901 FC
Central
Wednesday, October 27
8:00 PM ET
AutoZone Park
FC Tulsa
Central

Third place in the Central Division could be decided when current third-placed side Memphis 901 FC takes on fourth-placed FC Tulsa with the hosts currently holding an edge in the head-to-head series as the team enters level on points. Should Memphis take victory it would complete a 3-1-0 series victory against Tulsa and be out of reach in third going to the final day of the season. If they draw, 901 FC would remain in control of the head-to-head tiebreaker with a 2-1-1 record and would simply need to match Tulsa’s result in its final game of the season to stay ahead in third. If Tulsa takes victory to even the series, and a three-point lead with one game to go, then the visitors would take control and need just a point from their final game at home to OKC Energy FC on Saturday night. It should prove an interesting clash as a result. 

Real Monarchs SLC
Mountain
Wednesday, October 27
9:00 PM ET
Zions Bank Stadium
Rio Grande Valley FC
Mountain

Rio Grande Valley FC took a 2-0 win against New Mexico United on Saturday that saw the Toros claim control over which club would claim the final playoff place in the Mountain Division. Now they’ve got to back that up with a victory on the road against a Real Monarchs SLC side that may be in last place, but that has recently played visitors to Zions Bank Stadium with increased tenacity. With a win in what is serving as its game in hand, Rio Grande Valley would move a point ahead of New Mexico as both go to their final games of the season this weekend. To do that, the Toros would need to pick up their first three points on the road since their last visit to Zions Bank Stadium on August 3 with the side 0-4-3 in its last seven road outings. If RGVFC gets held to a draw, the ball is back in New Mexico’s court with Austin Bold FC lying in wait should both slip up. 

Standings


Pacific Division

Phoenix Rising FC
1. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 20-5-6, 66pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (Clinched)
Max. Points Available: 69pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. TAC (10/30)
Rising FC needs only a draw against Tacoma to clinch the best record in the Western Conference – should it end level on points with Mountain Division title-winner El Paso Locomotive FC, Rising FC would take the homefield tiebreaker with more total wins – but if it’s going to claim the best record in the league it has to take victory and see the Tampa Bay Rowdies lose to Las Vegas Lights FC in its final regular season game.
2. Orange County SC
2. Orange County SC
Record: 14-10-7, 49pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (80%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at LA (10/30)
Orange County can clinch second place in the Pacific Division if it takes a draw on the road against the LA Galaxy II on Saturday night as it holds a 2-1-1 record and the head-to-head against third-placed San Diego Loyal SC. A loss to Los Dos would open the door for San Diego to move past Orange County and sent it on the road to either San Antonio FC or Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.
3. San Diego Loyal SC
3. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 14-12-5, 47pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 3rd (80%)
Max. Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next:at SAC (10/30)
SD Loyal needs both a victory against Sacramento Republic FC on the road on Saturday night and for Orange County SC to lose to the LA Galaxy II on Saturday night. If San Diego fails to win, or Orange County gets a draw, then SD Loyal will hit the road in San Antonio or Colorado Springs to start the postseason.
4. LA Galaxy II
4. LA Galaxy II
Record: 11-14-6, 39pts
Playoff Odds: 64%
Projected Finish: 4th (64%)
Max. Points Available: 42pts
Magic Number: 3pts
Up Next: vs. OC (10/30)
Consecutive defeats have narrowed the Galaxy II’s margin for error going to the final game of the season. They will still be in if they win against Orange County SC at home, though, and they are undefeated against OCSC with a 2-0-1 record so far this season. If LA earns a draw, it would also get in if neither Oakland Roots SC or Tacoma Defiance takes victory in their final game, and if it loses there is still a way in if both Oakland and Tacoma lose, or Tacoma loses and Oakland draws, which would send Los Dos through on head-to-head goal differential over Oakland. If LA loses and both Oakland and Tacoma draw, however, Los Dos would be eliminated as the Defiance would advance on total in-division points with 37, while if LA and Oakland both lose and Tacoma draws to move level with Los Dos on 39, the Defiance would advance on head-to-head tiebreaker.
5. Oakland Roots SC
5. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 10-13-8, 38pts
Playoff Odds: 27%
Projected Finish: 5th (42%)
Max. Points Available: 41pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SKC (10/30)
The good news for Oakland is on paper it has the easiest assignment of the three remaining teams alive for the final playoff place as it hosts a Sporting Kansas City II side that has been eliminated and lost five in a row, including a six-goal drubbing last time out against Birmingham Legion FC. If Roots SC doesn’t take victory, however, it cannot advance as either the LA Galaxy II would advance in a head-to-head tiebreaker on 39 points, or Tacoma Defiance would on total in-division points if the three teams end up deadlocked on the same point total with no team holding a direct head-to-head tiebreaker over each of the other two. Should Oakland and Tacoma both take victory while the Galaxy II fail to win, though, Roots SC would advance as it holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Defiance.
6. Tacoma Defiance
6. Tacoma Defiance
Record: 10-13-8, 38pts
Playoff Odds: 9%
Projected Finish: 6th (64%)
Max. Points Available: 41pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next:at PHX (10/30)
The Defiance come in with the biggest challenge of the three sides still alive for fourth place on the road against Phoenix Rising FC but could only need a draw to advance should other results go their way. With a win, the Defiance would need both Oakland Roots SC and the LA Galaxy II to fail to take victory to move into fourth as if Roots SC also took victory to leave the teams level on 41 points with LA eliminated after a draw or a loss, then Oakland would claim the head-to-head tiebreaker. If Tacoma drew and both the Galaxy II and Oakland lost, Tacoma would advance on its head-to-head advantage over the Galaxy II. Finally, if Tacoma and Oakland both earned a draw and the Galaxy II lost, the tiebreakers would go the way of the Defiance with 37 in-division points with none of the three sides holding direct head-to-head tiebreakers over the other two.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Sacramento Republic FC, Las Vegas Lights FC

Mountain Division

2. El Paso Locomotive FC
1. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 18-3-10, 64pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (Clinched)
Max Points Available: 67pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at RGV (10/30)
Locomotive FC racked up seven goals without answer in it final two home games of the regular season at Southwest University Park to post a 13-0-3 record. They’ll be hosting at least two rounds of playoff games as a result and can still take the best record in the West if they defeat Rio Grande Valley FC on Saturday and Phoenix Rising FC loses to the Tacoma Defiance.
2. San Antonio FC
2. San Antonio FC
Record: 13-8-10, 49pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish:3rd (51%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. COS (10/30)
San Antonio holds the edge over Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC as they square off on Saturday night at Toyota Field thanks to a 2-0-1 record head-to-head. A draw would be enough to earn second place and an opening playoff game on home turf, but SAFC is winless in its last three overall.
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 13-8-10, 49pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (51%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at SA (10/30)
The Switchbacks can in no small measure go for broke on Saturday night against San Antonio FC with only a win good enough to move them into second place and earn an inaugural home playoff game at Weidner Field. With Hadji Barry also looking to make history with his 26th goal of the season, expect plenty of attacking purpose from the visitors.
4. New Mexico United
4. New Mexico United
Record: 11-10-10, 43pts
Playoff Odds: 61%
Projected Finish: 4th (61%)
Max. Points Available: 46pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SLC (10/30)
New Mexico is no longer in control as it prepares for its home finale against Real Monarchs SLC on Saturday. It will be hoping the Monarchs – and Chris Wehan’s younger brother Charlie – can do them a favor and take points off the Toros to get United back into a win-and-you’re-in situation.
5. Austin Bold FC
5. Austin Bold FC
Record: 10-10-11, 41pts
Playoff Odds: 1%
Projected Finish: 6th (86%)
Max. Points Available: 44pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. CLT (10/30)
Austin Bold FC holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Rio Grande Valley FC, which is why it sits in fifth place going to the final day. There’s no question, though, Austin has to have everything fall its way, with the Toros only gaining three points at most over their two game, New Mexico losing its final game to Real Monarchs SLC, and Austin taking victory against a Charlotte Independence side that will have designs on second place in the Atlantic Division as it arrives at Bold Stadium.
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 11-11-8, 41pts
Playoff Odds: 38%
Projected Finish: 5th (51%)
Max. Points Available: 47pts
Magic Number: 6pts
Up Next: at SLC (10/27); vs. ELP (10/30)
The equation is now simple for the Toros: win out and you’re in, starting with their visit to Real Monarchs SLC. The problem is potentially two-fold, though. First, RGVFC hasn’t recorded a three-game winning streak since the opening three games of the season, and second it faces division-leading El Paso Locomotive FC to close. El Paso still has something to play for on Saturday with the best record in the Western Conference still open, and Locomotive FC could be looking for revenge against one of only three teams to hand it defeat on its travels this season. Any dropped points and New Mexico regains control of its fate.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Real Monarchs SLC

Central Division

1. Birmingham Legion FC
1. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 18-7-6, 60pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (65%)
Max. Points Available:63pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. LOU (10/30)
Birmingham needs only a draw to clinch the Central Division against Louisville City FC on Saturday night at BBVA Field, and a point would also be enough to clinch at least two home games in the postseason on 61 points. Outside the Tampa Bay Rowdies, only the Charlotte Independence can also reach 61 points in the regular season with wins in its final two games, but Legion FC holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Charlotte after their 2-1 win when the sides met on September 26.
2. Louisville City FC
2. Louisville City FC
Record: 17-7-7, 58pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (65%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at BHM (10/30)
LouCity must take victory against Birmingham Legion FC to jump back into first place after the final game of the season on Saturday at BBVA Field, but should that come to pass it might not be enough to earn hosting rights over the Charlotte Independence in a potential Conference Semifinal if both teams end on 61 points. With no head-to-head meeting this season, LouCity’s 18 wins would be outstripped by Charlotte’s 19 wins should it win its final two outings and send that potential matchup to American Legion Memorial Stadium in the Eastern Conference Semifinals should LouCity win the division and both teams advance.
3. Memphis 901 FC
3. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 12-10-8, 44pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 4th (56%)
Max. Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. TUL (10/27); vs. IND (10/30)
901 FC can lock in the No. 3 seed with a victory against FC Tulsa at AutoZone Park on Wednesday night thanks to holding the head-to-head tiebreaker between the sides. It would still hold the upper hand going to the final game of the season with the head-to-head tiebreaker as well if the teams play to a draw. If Tulsa takes victory, though, Memphis would have to win its finale at home to Indy Eleven and Tulsa would have to lose at home to OKC Energy FC for 901 FC to pull back level on points, at which point the tiebreaker would begin at head-to-head goal differential – where Memphis holds a +3 lead (5-2) going in – then potentially move to total points in division, where the two teams are currently tied on 40 points apiece, or total in-division wins, where Tulsa holds a 12-11 edge going into the week.
4. FC Tulsa
4. FC Tulsa
Record: 13-12-5, 44pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 3rd (56%)
Max. Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at MEM (10/27); vs. OKC (10/30)
As noted above, things could get very interesting going to the final day of the season if Tulsa takes victory against Memphis 901 FC ahead of the final Black Gold Derby of the season on Saturday night at ONEOK Field. If Tulsa takes any kind of win against 901 FC, then it could close out third place with either a win or a draw against Energy FC on Saturday. If the visitors can emerge with a four-goal margin of victory, though, it would not only even the regular season series between the teams at two wins apiece, but flip the head-to-head goal differential for Tulsa from -3 to +1 and lock up third place before Saturday’s games arrive.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: OKC Energy FC, Indy Eleven, Atlanta United 2, Sporting Kansas City II

Atlantic Division

1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 22-7-2, 68pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (Clinched)
Max. Points Available: 71pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at LV (10/30)
The Rowdies can clinch the best record in the Championship with a win or a draw against Las Vegas Lights FC on Saturday at Cashman Field thanks to its head-to-head tiebreaker over Phoenix Rising FC and Rising FC’s 1-1 draw against Sacramento Republic FC. 
3. Charlotte Independence
2. Charlotte Independence
Record: 17-9-4, 55pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (88%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. LDN (10/27); at ATX (10/30)
The Independence would earn second place in the standings if it wins both of its remaining games at home to Loudoun United FC on Wednesday evening and at Austin Bold FC on Saturday night. With the chance Riverhounds SC could move within a point by the end of Wednesday’s action, though, Charlotte could be punished by the Hounds if they drop points in either game.
3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 16-8-7, 55pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 3rd (87%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at MIA (10/27); vs. HFD (10/30)
The Hounds will take a 1-0 lead into the resumption of their game against Miami FC on Wednesday night at FIU Stadium and if they can maintain it would potentially remain within a point of the Charlotte Independence for second place should Charlotte take victory at home to Loudoun United. That would take us to the final day of the season and the Hounds looking for a win at home to Hartford Athletic to try and jump past the Independence on points, which they would require to claim second place with the Independence holding the head-to-head tiebreaker between the two clubs.
4. The Miami FC
4. The Miami FC
Record: 15-9-7, 52pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 4th (99%)
Max. Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. PIT (10/27); at CHS (10/30)
It’s a longshot, but there is a way for Miami to still finish second in the final week. The first step would be for the side to overturn its one-goal deficit and take victory against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC to move to 54 points while seeing the Charlotte Independence fail to take victory against Loudoun United FC to move to at most 56 with a draw. With a win in the final game of the regular season on the road at Charleston, a Pittsburgh draw or defeat against Hartford Athletic to leave them with at most 55 points, and a Charlotte draw or defeat against Austin Bold FC, Miami would finish in second with 57 points as it holds the head-to-head tiebreaker (2-1-1) against the Independence, who would top out at 57 if they fail to win either of their final two games.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Charleston Battery, Hartford Athletic, New York Red Bulls II, Loudoun United FC

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