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USL Championship Playoff Projections – Oct. 20

By USLSoccer.com Staff, 10/19/21, 4:00PM EDT

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Four Mountain, Pacific Division berths could be locked up by the end of Wednesday’s action

The playoff berths are locked in the Atlantic Division, and by the end of Wednesday’s action the same could be true of the Pacific Division with both Orange County SC and the LA Galaxy II having a chance to book their spots in the postseason field. 

There’s a lot to be played for beyond just earning a postseason berth in the next two weeks, though, with seeding in all four divisions still up for grabs. Wednesday’s eight-game slate puts the spotlight on those situations in addition to the potential for four more playoff berths to be clinched in the Western Conference. 

Here are four games to keep an eye on this Wednesday, and where everyone stands with two weeks to go. 

Matches to Watch


Tampa Bay Rowdies
Atlantic
Wednesday, October 20
7:30 PM ET
Al Lang Stadium
The Miami FC
Atlantic

The Tampa Bay Rowdies and Miami FC are both locked into the postseason, and Tampa Bay to the Atlantic Division’s top spot, but the culmination of the in-state rivalry this season has big implications for both teams in terms of seeding. The Rowdies need to take victory to remain ahead of Phoenix Rising FC for the best overall record in the Championship and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, with Tampa Bay holding the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to their win on home turf early in the season, while Miami needs victory to move level on points with Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and into third place thanks to their ownership of the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Hounds. That should make for another compelling matchup between these two sides at Al Lang Stadium.  

El Paso Locomotive
Mountain
Wednesday, October 20
9:00 PM ET
Southwest University Park
Austin Bold FC
Mountain

El Paso Locomotive FC has locked up the Mountain Division title, but after its loss on Sunday night to the LA Galaxy II the potential to challenge the Tampa Bay Rowdies and Phoenix Rising FC for the best record in the Championship seems like a big ask, especially with the injuries the side is carrying defensively. That could be good news for Austin Bold FC, which is in desperate need of victory for its postseason goals as it enters the week level on points with New Mexico United but trailing on the head-to-head tiebreaker between the sides and in fifth place in the standings. Any points would be useful for Austin, and a win would be a massive step forward, but El Paso will be looking to maintain its home undefeated record no matter the personnel that are on the field. 

New Mexico United
Mountain
Wednesday, October 20
9:00 PM ET
Isotopes Park
San Antonio FC
Mountain

New Mexico United edged into fourth place on Sunday afternoon after Ilija Ilic’s late equalizer against San Diego Loyal SC at Torero Stadium as it holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Austin Bold FC with both teams on 40 points. United now returns home for another big test against a San Antonio FC side that can clinch a playoff place with a draw against New Mexico but will be looking for a win that would give it a three-point edge over Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC for second place in the standings and the potential of a home game in the Western Conference Quarterfinals. New Mexico has taken victory in two of the three prior meetings between these sides so far this season, and three points would assure the side it would remain in fourth place ahead of another crucial game on Saturday against fellow postseason contention Rio Grande Valley FC. 

Tacoma Defiance
Pacific
Wednesday, October 20
10:00 PM ET
Cheney Stadium
Oakland Roots SC
Pacific

With both Tacoma Defiance and Oakland Roots SC having failed to take victory over the past weekend, this matchup serves as an elimination game for one or potentially both clubs. Should either Tacoma or Oakland come out a winner, their chances of a postseason berth would move onto the weekend – and in the case of Tacoma set up a massive game against current fourth-placed side the LA Galaxy II. For the loser, it would mean the end of the road should the LA Galaxy II have claimed victory earlier in the evening against the Charleston Battery, and that would also be true in the case of a draw. If Los Dos has won and moved to 42 points, the Defiance and Roots SC would both drop to a maximum points available total of 41 with a draw, eliminating both from contention.  

Standings


Pacific Division

Phoenix Rising FC
1. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 20-5-5, 65pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (Clinched)
Max. Points Available: 71pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SAC (10/23)
Phoenix kept up the pressure on the Tampa Bay Rowdies with its wild win on Saturday against Las Vegas Lights FC and will be interested onlookers as the Atlantic Division title winner takes on in-state rival Miami FC on Wednesday night. If Tampa Bay fails to win there, Rising FC can win out and clinch the best record in the league ahead of the Rowdies.
2. San Diego Loyal SC
2. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 14-10-5, 47pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (82%)
Max. Points Available: 56pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next:at OC (10/17); vs. OAK (10/24)
SD Loyal has clinched its playoff berth and can lock up second place and a first home playoff game on Wednesday night as it visits Orange County SC, where a win would put the visitors to Championship Soccer Stadium out of reach in the standings with two games to spare.
3. Orange County SC
3. Orange County SC
Record: 12-10-7, 43pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 3rd (70%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: 1pts
Up Next: vs. SD (10/20); vs. LV (10/23)
Orange County can clinch its playoff place with a draw on Wednesday night at home to San Diego Loyal SC but with a win would move within a point of San Diego in second place with two games each left to play. That could set up an intriguing weekend with OCSC getting on paper the simpler assignment between the two as it hosts Las Vegas Lights FC and a chance to put pressure on San Diego to match it on Sunday at home to Oakland Roots SC. If Orange County fails to take victory, though, it can still close out a playoff spot should Oakland take victory against Tacoma Defiance on Wednesday, leaving Oakland in fifth place with a maximum points available total of 43 and Orange County holding the tiebreaker after sweeping the season series, or should the Defiance and Roots SC draw, which would drop both clubs’ maximum available total to 41 points.
4. LA Galaxy II
4. LA Galaxy II
Record: 11-12-6, 39pts
Playoff Odds: 91%
Projected Finish: 4th (79%)
Max. Points Available: 48pts
Magic Number: 5pts
Up Next: at CHS (10/20); at TAC (10/24)
Los Dos took a massive step forward on Sunday with their third win in the past five games having previously seen the competition for fourth place falter on Saturday night and Sunday afternoon. The Galaxy II could lock up their third consecutive playoff berth on Wednesday night if they take victory on the road against the Charleston Battery and then see Oakland Roots SC and the Tacoma Defiance play to a draw later that night, which would drop both clubs to a maximum of 41 points and close out the playoff field in the Pacific.
5. Oakland Roots SC
5. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 9-13-7, 34pts
Playoff Odds: 2%
Projected Finish: 6th (39%)
Max. Points Available: 43pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at TAC (10/20); at SD (10/24)
Both Oakland and Tacoma Defiance have three games to go apiece, but with five points to make up on the LA Galaxy II this is a must-win for Roots SC to keep its slim hopes alive. If Oakland loses, it would be out of the running by the end of Wednesday night should Los Dos have taken victory earlier in the night against the Charleston Battery. A draw would also be no good for either Roots SC or the Defiance and could result in both club’s chances coming to an end in the case of a Galaxy II victory.
6. Sacramento Republic FC
6. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 8-12-10, 34pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 7th (43%)
Max. Points Available: 40pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at PHX (10/23)
Sacramento must hope for the Charleston Battery to come through with a victory against the LA Galaxy II on Wednesday night – the Galaxy II would move clear of Republic FC with a win and would also eliminate Sacramento from contention with a draw to move to 40 points as LA holds the second head-to-head tiebreaker with a +1-goal differential from the 1-1-2 season series between the sides. If Charleston does take victory, Republic FC would then be hoping for a draw between the Tacoma Defiance and Oakland Roots SC to pull both teams closer ahead of what would then be a must-win against Phoenix Rising FC on Saturday.
7. Tacoma Defiance
7. Tacoma Defiance
Record: 9-13-7, 34pts
Playoff Odds: 6%
Projected Finish: 5th (47%)
Max. Points Available: 43pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. OAK (10/20); vs. LA (10/24)
The Defiance have the best of the slim odds to pass the LA Galaxy II while sitting five points behind the fourth-placed side, as should Tacoma take victory on Wednesday night it sets up a chance to take on LA at home on Sunday afternoon that could give the side a chance to close the gap to Los Dos. If Tacoma has aspirations to take it down to the final day of the season, a six-point week is a must.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Las Vegas Lights FC

Mountain Division

2. El Paso Locomotive FC
1. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 16-3-10, 58pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (Clinched)
Max Points Available: 67pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. ATX (10/20); vs. OKC (10/24)
Locomotive FC locked up its third consecutive playoff berth before the end of its contest with FC Tulsa, and then closed out three points in impressive fashion. By then end of this week, El Paso could also have locked up the division crown if it takes a pair of victories against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC and the LA Galaxy II or one win and a draw or defeat for San Antonio FC against FC Tulsa on Saturday night.
2. San Antonio FC
2. San Antonio FC
Record: 13-7-9, 48pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish:2nd (66%)
Max. Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: 2pts
Up Next: at NM (10/20); vs. ATX (10/23)
San Antonio couldn’t close out its playoff place on Saturday night although the door was open thanks to the defeats for Austin Bold FC and Rio Grande Valley FC earlier in the evening. SAFC would do both of those teams a major favor on Wednesday night if it takes victory on the road against New Mexico United, which would not only keep the visitors in the driver’s seat for second place while clinching a playoff spot but also dent New Mexico’s postseason hopes, but a draw would be enough to close a postseason berth as well. If San Antonio suffers defeat, it can still clinch a spot should Austin fail to take victory on the road against El Paso Locomotive FC as well, where in the case of a draw Bold FC’s maximum available points total would drop to 47.
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 13-8-9, 45pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 3rd (65%)
Max. Points Available: 54pts
Magic Number: 2pts
Up Next: at SLC (10/22)
Thomas Amang’s late winner grabbed victory for the Switchbacks against Rio Grande Valley FC, and now they could clinch a playoff spot before they next see action on Friday night against Real Monarchs SLC. Should one of New Mexico United or Austin Bold FC fail to take victory on Wednesday night it would lock up the Switchbacks’ return to the playoffs as New Mexico or Austin’s maximum available points would drop to 47 with a draw. In the bigger picture, the Switchbacks may prefer the team to drop points to Austin, as a New Mexico victory against San Antonio would keep it level on points with the second-placed side and in contention for a home playoff game with two games remaining, including its finale on the road at San Antonio.
4. New Mexico United
4. New Mexico United
Record: 10-9-10, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 56%
Projected Finish: 4th (54%)
Max. Points Available: 49pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SA (10/20); at RGV (10/23)
All three teams vying for fourth have difficult closes to the season, but New Mexico got its nose in front thanks to Ilija Ilic’s late equalizer against San Diego Loyal SC on Sunday afternoon. New Mexico will need to at least match Austin Bold FC’s result against El Paso Locomotive FC on Wednesday as it plays host to San Antonio before a crucial away game against the third team in contention, Rio Grande Valley FC.
5. Austin Bold FC
5. Austin Bold FC
Record: 10-9-10, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 16%
Projected Finish:6th (44%)
Max. Points Available: 49pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at ELP (10/20); at SA (10/23)
Austin couldn’t hold on for a point on the road against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC on Saturday night and now must try and find a result on the road against an El Paso Locomotive FC side that has made Southwest University Park a fortress for more than a year. Almost as important for Austin as finding a positive result itself would be for San Antonio to lock up its playoff place on Wednesday by defeating New Mexico and opening a chance for Bold FC to jump back ahead.
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 10-11-8, 38pts
Playoff Odds: 28%
Projected Finish: 6th (40%)
Max. Points Available: 47pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. NM (10/23)
The Toros sit this midweek out before being in action next Wednesday, so they’ll be hoping for both New Mexico United and Austin Bold FC to fall against the Mountain Division’s top two teams before it plays host to New Mexico on Saturday night at H-E-B Park.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Real Monarchs SLC

Central Division

1. Birmingham Legion FC
1. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 17-7-6, 57pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (64%)
Max. Points Available:63pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SKC (10/24)
Legion FC couldn’t take advantage of the opening Louisville City FC’s loss afforded it to put clear water between them but on paper gets an easier assignment this weekend than LouCity does on Saturday night. With four points from its final two games, Birmingham can clinch not only the division, but also the potential to host a Conference Semifinal as it holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over prospective Atlantic Division second-place finisher the Charlotte Independence.
2. Louisville City FC
2. Louisville City FC
Record: 16-7-7, 55pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (64%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. MEM (10/23)
Louisville can still win the Central Division, but it needs to take victory at home to Memphis 901 FC on Saturday night and on the road against Birmingham Legion FC to close the season October 30. Anything less and it will have one home game, but a prospect of an Eastern Conference Final rematch from a season ago with the Tampa Bay Rowdies one round earlier this postseason. 
3. Memphis 901 FC
3. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 12-9-8, 44pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 3rd (64%)
Max. Points Available: 53pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at LOU (10/23)
Memphis is into the postseason field and if it wins out it would finish third in the division standings. 901 FC will have a close eye on how FC Tulsa fares at home to Atlanta United 2 on Wednesday night before it heads to face Louisville City FC on Saturday night.
4. FC Tulsa
4. FC Tulsa
Record: 12-12-4, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 99%
Projected Finish: 4th (63%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: 4pts
Up Next: vs. ATL (10/20); at IND (10/23)
Tulsa can’t quite clinch its playoff place with a victory at home to Atlanta United 2 on Wednesday night – its head-to-head series with OKC Energy FC is still at 1-1-1 before they meet on October 30 – but either a win or a draw would eliminate Indy Eleven from the equation before they meet on Saturday night in Indianapolis, where Tulsa could then try to close the show.
5. OKC Energy FC
5. OKC Energy FC
Record: 8-9-13, 37pts
Playoff Odds: 1%
Projected Finish: 5th (69%)
Max. Points Available: 43pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at ELP (10/24)
All Energy FC can do at this point is sit and hope its Black Gold Derby Rival continues to falter. A Tulsa win against Atlanta wouldn’t be fatal to OKC’s chances, but it would mean OKC needs to win on the road against El Paso Locomotive FC on Sunday in addition to Tulsa losing on the road against Indy Eleven to keep its chances alive.
6. Indy Eleven
6. Indy Eleven
Record: 9-14-7, 34pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 6th (59%)
Max. Points Available: 40pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. TUL (10/23)
There’s a sequence of results – two Indy victories, three FC Tulsa defeats and a loss against El Paso Locomotive and victory against FC Tulsa for OKC Energy FC – that lands all three teams on 40 points. It’s likely the tiebreakers wouldn’t be in Indy’s favor at that point – if all that pans out, Energy FC would hold the head-to-head over both Tulsa and Indy – but a team remains alive until the results say it isn’t, which of course could see Indy’s chances end on Wednesday if Tulsa takes at least a draw against Atlanta United 2.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Atlanta United 2, Sporting Kansas City II

Atlantic Division

1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 20-7-2, 62pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (Clinched)
Max. Points Available: 71pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. MIA (10/20); at LDN (10/23)
The equation remained the same for the Rowdies after Friday night’s draw against the New York Red Bulls II – win out and claim homefield advantage in the postseason with the best record in the league – but the margin for error got narrower. On paper the biggest hurdle arrives on Wednesday night as in-state rival Miami FC arrives also in need of a win before road games at the eliminated Loudoun United FC and Las Vegas Lights FC to close the season.
3. Charlotte Independence
2. Charlotte Independence
Record: 16-9-4, 52pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (69%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at HFD (10/22)
The Independence looked awesome in closing out their playoff berth against the Charleston Battery and remain on course to finish in second place should they win out. Hartford Athletic has shown some battle in its last three games, though, and can’t be taken lightly on the road even with its elimination from playoff contention.
3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 15-8-7, 52pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 3rd (60%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. CHS (10/23)
No two ways about it, the Hounds were on the wrong end of an inexplicable decision against Miami FC but will put it aside and could even use it as a motivator to lock up at least a third-place finish.  Ahead of their game with the Charleston Battery back at home on Saturday, they’ll be looking for the Tampa Bay Rowdies to pick up victory against Miami and help them toward that aim.
4. The Miami FC
4. The Miami FC
Record: 14-8-7, 49pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 4th (81%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at TBR (10/20); vs. NY (10/24)
Miami had already claimed the tiebreaker over Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC before Saturday’s incident, which means if it wins out from here it would pass the Hounds for third place but would need the Charlotte Independence to falter for a chance at second. That’s going to be no easy task against in-state rival the Tampa Bay Rowdies, who need the victory on Wednesday night to stay on track for the best record in the league.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Charleston Battery, Hartford Athletic, New York Red Bulls II, Loudoun United FC

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