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USL Championship Playoff Projections – Oct. 15-17

By USLChampionship.com Staff, 10/14/21, 6:30PM EDT

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San Antonio, San Diego can book their places this weekend in addition to some crucial games elsewhere

After Wednesday night’s USL Championship action produced some intriguing changes to the standings – including in the Central Division and the race for the best overall record in the league – we’re back on watch for teams looking to book their places in the 2021 USL Championship Playoffs this weekend with up to five playoff berths within reach across the four divisions.

As important, though, are the games being played around the playoff line in both divisions with particular focus on the Mountain and Pacific Divisions in the Western Conference as teams try to keep their postseason goals alive.

Here are four games to keep an eye on this weekend, and where everyone stands with three weekends to go.

Matches to Watch


The Miami FC
Atlantic
Saturday, October 16
7:30 PM ET
FIU Stadium
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Atlantic

Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC clinched its playoff place last weekend, while Miami FC is on the verge of wrapping up its place with a win or a draw or defeat for the Charleston Battery against the Charlotte Independence on Saturday night, but the biggest storyline going into this meeting between the second-placed Hounds and fourth-placed Miami is the battle for seeding in the Atlantic Division. The Hounds are second at this moment primarily because they’ve played one additional game compared to the Independence – who have the most available points – and Miami. To solidify that spot, the visitors really need a win here, but that’s something they’ve not been able to accomplish yet against Miami this season with the hosts 2-0-1 this season and both victories seeing Miami rally after conceding first. If Miami wins here, it keeps itself in position for a potential home game and could also quickly sink Pittsburgh to fourth place with a serious challenge to get out of that spot in its final two games.

San Antonio FC
Mountain
Saturday, October 16
8:30 PM ET
Toyota Field
FC Tulsa
Central

San Antonio FC can lock up its spot in the postseason if it takes victory on Saturday night and sees two of New Mexico United or Rio Grande Valley FC fail to take victory in their games on the road against San Diego Loyal SC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC or Austin Bold FC lose at on the road to Real Monarchs SLC. Fulfilling its own end of the deal with all three points could be a challenge, though, with FC Tulsa arriving in need of a positive result to not only move closer to the playoff places but keep its chances of a third-place finish moving after being overtaken by Memphis 901 FC on Wednesday night. These two teams squared off three times last season as members of the same group and went 1-1-1 against each other while advancing to the postseason. That shared history could also add some edge to what’s now an interconference matchup.

Sacramento Republic FC
Pacific
Sunday, October 17
5:00 PM ET
Heart Health Park
Tacoma Defiance
Pacific

Both Sacramento Republic FC – in a 1-1 draw against the LA Galaxy II – and Tacoma Defiance – in a 1-0 defeat to Las Vegas Lights FC – failed to take victory on Wednesday night which made the margin of error that much slimmer for both sides as their odds to make the playoffs according to fivethirtyeight.com both took a serious dive. That will only amp up the pressure to win when the teams meet on Saturday night in Sacramento with both Oakland Roots SC and the LA Galaxy II getting difficult assignments as well. The pressure is probably more squarely on Republic FC; with only three games to go compared to Tacoma’s four games remaining, a loss here would drop Sacramento’s maximum available points below 40, which doesn’t seem likely to get a playoff spot as the standings currently sit. That should make for a highly compelling rematch from Republic FC’s 3-1 win when the teams last met at this venue on October 2.

San Diego Loyal SC
Pacific
Sunday, October 17
6:00 PM ET
Torero Stadium
New Mexico United
Mountain

New Mexico United and Rio Grande Valley FC were boosted on Wednesday night when Birmingham Legion FC took victory against Austin Bold FC to keep the race for the final playoff place in the Mountain Division close going into the final four games of the season. But now United hits the road to take on a major test from San Diego Loyal SC, which can not only book its first trip to the playoffs with a draw on Sunday afternoon at Torero Stadium, but with a win would move close to clinching second place in the Pacific Division and a guaranteed home game in the Western Conference Quarterfinals in November. New Mexico hasn’t fared well in its non-division games this season – overall it has gone 1-3-3 as it wraps up its eight games against San Diego – and that may need to change with Austin taking on Real Monarchs SLC on Saturday afternoon with a chance to add pressure to its rivals for fourth place.

Standings


Pacific Division

Phoenix Rising FC
1. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 19-5-5, 62pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (Clinched)
Max. Points Available: 71pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at LV (10/16)
Outlook: Phoenix’s slow start against Orange County SC ended up costing it not only a result, but the inside track to the best record in the Championship with the Tampa Bay Rowdies now able to win out and finish on 73 points. Rising FC needs to take care of business on Saturday night on the road against Las Vegas Lights FC now, or else it could slip behind El Paso Locomotive FC as well for the best record in the West.
2. San Diego Loyal SC
2. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 14-10-4, 46pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 2nd (92%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 1pts
Up Next:vs. NM (10/17)
Outlook: Because of Orange County SC’s victory on Wednesday night, SD Loyal can’t quite clinch second place in the Pacific this weekend. It will be eager to take victory on home turf against New Mexico United to close in on that guaranteed home game in the playoffs, and both Austin Bold FC and Rio Grande Valley FC will be tuning in after their games on Saturday to root for the hosts as well.
3. Orange County SC
3. Orange County SC
Record: 11-10-7, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 98%
Projected Finish: 3rd (78%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: 7pts
Up Next: at OAK (10/16)
Outlook: Orange County’s victory against Phoenix coupled with the three teams below them in the standings on Wednesday night dropping points has re-established a nice cushion for the side. Now it heads to Oakland looking for another win, which could clinch a playoff spot if Sacramento Republic FC takes victory against Tacoma Defiance on Sunday afternoon. Should OCSC win, it would not only move to 43 points, but also drop Oakland’s maximum available points to 43 with Orange County holding the head-to-head tiebreaker already with three wins in their prior three meetings. With Sacramento’s maximum now at 42 points, a win for Republic FC would also drop Tacoma’s maximum available points to 42 on Sunday, putting Orange County clear of all three teams as well as Las Vegas and back in the playoffs. If Tacoma wins, or draws, Orange County would still need one more point due to the Defiance holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over OCSC with a 3-0-1 record in the series between the sides.
4. LA Galaxy II
4. LA Galaxy II
Record: 10-12-6, 36pts
Playoff Odds: 62%
Projected Finish: 4th (50%)
Max. Points Available: 48pts
Magic Number: 11pts
Up Next: vs. ELP (10/17)
Outlook: Los Dos could have been in really good shape if they had held on to defeat Sacramento Republic FC on Wednesday night, but they’re still favored to come through in the end even with a tough game against Mountain Division leaders El Paso Locomotive FC on Sunday evening. What the Galaxy II will also be hoping for beyond that this weekend is an Orange County SC victory against Oakland Roots SC, and a Sacramento Republic FC victory against Tacoma Defiance, which while keeping Sacramento in the race would do damage to the closer contender in Tacoma’s chances.
5. Oakland Roots SC
5. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 9-12-7, 34pts
Playoff Odds: 21%
Projected Finish: 5th (34%)
Max. Points Available: 46pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. OC (10/16)
Outlook: Roots SC has a gauntlet to run in its next three games at home to Orange County SC and away to Tacoma Defiance and San Diego Loyal SC, but it can keep the pressure on the LA Galaxy II – who have their own difficult assignment this weekend hosting EL Paso Locomotive FC – with a first victory in club history against OCSC on Saturday night.
6. Sacramento Republic FC
6. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 8-12-9, 33pts
Playoff Odds: 5%
Projected Finish: 7th (43%)
Max. Points Available: 42pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. TAC (10/17)
Outlook: Republic FC grabbing a late point was something, but it might not have been enough to stave off the inevitable. Nothing but victory against Tacoma Defiance on Sunday afternoon will do at this point, as a loss or draw would drop Republic FC’s maximum available points to at most 40, a total that’s unlikely to be enough to get the fourth spot.
7. Tacoma Defiance
7. Tacoma Defiance
Record: 9-13-6, 33pts
Playoff Odds: 14%
Projected Finish: 7th (36%)
Max. Points Available: 45pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at SAC (10/17)
Outlook: Losing at home on Wednesday night to Las Vegas Lights FC was not part of the plan for the Defiance. Now Tacoma heads to Sacramento Republic FC on Sunday in massive need of three points before its showdowns with Oakland Roots SC and the LA Galaxy II next week.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Las Vegas Lights FC

Mountain Division

2. El Paso Locomotive FC
1. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 16-2-10, 58pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (99%)
Max Points Available: 70pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at LA (10/17)
Outlook: El Paso guaranteed itself a top-two finish in the Mountain Division with Wednesday night’s victory against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC and can clinch the division regardless of what happens elsewhere with a victory on the road against the LA Galaxy II on Sunday night. If San Antonio FC fails to take victory against FC Tulsa on Saturday night, that would also clinch the division title for Locomotive FC.
2. San Antonio FC
2. San Antonio FC
Record: 13-7-8, 47pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish:2nd (83%)
Max. Points Available: 59pts
Magic Number: 5pts
Up Next: vs. TUL (10/16)
Outlook: San Antonio can claim its playoff place this weekend with some help elsewhere if it takes victory against FC Tulsa at Toyota Field. Should that occur – sending SAFC to 50 points – it would need two of three other results; Austin Bold FC losing to Real Monarchs SLC, Rio Grande Valley FC failing to defeat Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, and New Mexico United failing to defeat San Diego Loyal SC. A Toros win might not be the worst thing for San Antonio in the bigger picture, though, as it would put another dent in the Switchbacks’ challenge for second place as SAFC pursues a home playoff opener.
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 12-8-9, 45pts
Playoff Odds: 97%
Projected Finish: 3rd (66%)
Max. Points Available: 54pts
Magic Number: 7pts
Up Next: vs. RGV (10/16)
Outlook: After its loss to El Paso Locomotive FC on Wednesday night, the Switchbacks can’t quite clinch a playoff place this weekend as should the side take three points against Rio Grande Valley FC and New Mexico United suffer defeat to San Diego Loyal SC on Sunday, Colorado Springs still wouldn’t quite be clear of United in fifth due to the head-to-head tiebreaker. Should the Switchbacks pick back up and earn victory, though, it would keep the pressure on San Antonio to keep winning in a battle for second place that sees the two sides meet on the final day of the regular season.
4. Austin Bold FC
4. Austin Bold FC
Record: 10-8-10, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 30%
Projected Finish:5th (39%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: 12pts
Up Next: at SLC (10/16)
Outlook: Austin couldn’t come away with a point from its rescheduled game in Birmingham but does get what is on paper the easiest assignment this weekend of the three teams challenging for fourth spot in the division on the road against last-placed Real Monarchs SLC. The key for Bold FC will be how well it recovers going from Alabama to Utah with an early afternoon kickoff scheduled at Zions Bank Stadium for a game Austin needs to take three points from.
5. New Mexico United
5. New Mexico United
Record: 10-9-9, 39pts
Playoff Odds: 42%
Projected Finish: 4th (35%)
Max. Points Available: 51pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at SD (10/17)
Outlook: New Mexico got the result it needed on Wednesday night with Austin Bold FC losing in Birmingham, but it now gets to visit San Diego Loyal SC – second in the Pacific Division – and host San Antonio FC – second in the Mountain Division – over the next seven days. At least one victory – if not a win and a draw – is going to be required to keep pressure on Austin, or else it could get very dicey indeed.
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 10-10-8, 38pts
Playoff Odds: 32%
Projected Finish: 6th (39%)
Max. Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at COS (10/16)
Outlook: The Toros will hope to take advantage of the midweek exertions of Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC as they visit Weidner Field on Saturday night. If they can pick up a victory there, it sets up a massive series finale against New Mexico United at H-E-B Park on October 23.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Real Monarchs SLC

Central Division

1. Birmingham Legion FC
1. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 17-7-5, 56pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (59%)
Max. Points Available:65pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at OKC (10/17)
Outlook: Legion FC got the results it needed on Wednesday night as Neco Brett came through late with a goal and assist against Austin Bold FC. If Birmingham’s going to hold onto that one-point edge this weekend, it could need to break a solid home record for OKC, which has only lost four times on home turf this season, but one of those victories was by Legion FC early this season as the side sits 2-0-1 against OKC so far in 2021.
2. Louisville City FC
2. Louisville City FC
Record: 16-6-7, 55pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (59%)
Max. Points Available: 64pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at IND (10/16)
Outlook: LouCity’s loss to Memphis 901 FC was a big result for multiple reasons, but for Louisville it means the side really needs to pick up all three points against archrival Indy Eleven in the final LIPAFC of the season. With Indy fighting to stay alive in the playoff race, that could produce an above-standard level of competition and entertainment at Michael A. Carroll Stadium.
3. Memphis 901 FC
3. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 11-9-8, 41pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 3rd (56%)
Max. Points Available: 53pts
Magic Number: 5pts
Up Next: vs. ATL (10/16)
Outlook: Memphis is going to be going on the road to start the playoffs as neither it nor FC Tulsa can now catch Birmingham Legion FC and Louisville City FC at the top of the division. That said, 901 FC can lock up its playoff berth this weekend if it takes victory against Atlanta United 2 on Saturday night to move to 44 points and then sees OKC Energy FC drop points against Birmingham on Sunday evening, which would lower its maximum available total to 43 points.
4. FC Tulsa
4. FC Tulsa
Record: 12-12-3, 39pts
Playoff Odds: 96%
Projected Finish: 4th (52%)
Max. Points Available: 54pts
Magic Number: 7pts
Up Next: at SA (10/16)
Outlook: Tulsa can’t quite join Memphis in the postseason with a victory against San Antonio FC on Saturday night and a loss for OKC Energy FC on Sunday evening to Birmingham Legion FC – the Black Gold Derby’s season series remains unresolved at 1-1-1 – but any points on the road against San Antonio would be a nice boost considering how SAFC has played at home this campaign much of the time.
5. OKC Energy FC
5. OKC Energy FC
Record: 8-9-12, 36pts
Playoff Odds: 5%
Projected Finish: 5th (70%)
Max. Points Available: 45pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. BHM (10/17)
Outlook: Energy FC can’t be officially eliminated this weekend – with its Black Gold Derby series against FC Tulsa still up for grabs at 1-1-1 in their three meetings, there’s no head-to-head tiebreaker decided yet – but it might have to take victory on Sunday evening against Birmingham Legion FC to keep things interesting and hope that Tulsa falls to San Antonio FC on Saturday night at Toyota Field.
6. Atlanta United 2
6. Atlanta United 2
Record: 8-12-10, 34pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 6th (49%)
Max. Points Available: 40pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at MEM (10/16)
Outlook: Thanks to Sporting Kansas City II’s forfeit of Wednesday night’s game due to an ineligible player, Atlanta is still mathematically alive in the playoff race. If it doesn’t take victory against Memphis 901 FC on Saturday night, or if FC Tulsa wins against San Antonio FC on the same night, elimination would arrive.
7. Indy Eleven
7. Indy Eleven
Record: 8-14-7, 31pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 7th (62%)
Max. Points Available: 40pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. LOU (10/16)
Outlook: With Memphis 901 FC now out of reach on 41 points, Indy must take victory against Louisville City FC on Saturday night in the final LIPAFC of the season and hope that FC Tulsa falls against San Antonio FC to stay in with a chance of a playoff place. Any other result for the Boys in Blue means elimination.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Sporting Kansas City II

Atlantic Division

1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 20-7-1, 61pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (Clinched)
Max. Points Available: 73pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. NY (10/15)
Outlook: The Rowdies woke up on Thursday morning with the path to the best record in the Championship’s regular season reopened. Taking victory against the New York Red Bulls II on Friday night is the first step before a crucial home finale against Miami FC next Wednesday.
2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 15-8-6, 51pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (42%)
Max. Points Available: 60pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at MIA (10/16)
Outlook: The Hounds have a chance to finish second in the Atlantic Division, but to do so they have to overcome the one side they’ve yet to beat this year in the division – Miami FC – on the road this Saturday night. A defeat could spell a fourth-place finish in the end.
3. Charlotte Independence
3. Charlotte Independence
Record: 15-9-4, 49pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 3rd (43%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: 1pts
Up Next: vs. CHS (10/16)
Outlook: The Independence can lock up both their spot in the postseason and that of Miami FC with a draw against the Charleston Battery on Saturday night, but with a chance at second place and the Southern Derby on the line, you can guarantee the hosts will be going for all three points.
4. The Miami FC
4. The Miami FC
Record: 14-8-6, 48pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 4th (61%)
Max. Points Available: 60pts
Magic Number: 2pts
Up Next: vs. PIT (10/16)
Outlook: Miami has had a week to reflect and should get midfielder Speedy Williams back into the lineup for its clash with Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC on Saturday night at FIU Stadium. This should be a game everyone shows up for and tunes into.
5. Charleston Battery
5. Charleston Battery
Record: 9-11-7, 34pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 6th (54%)
Max. Points Available: 49pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at CLT (10/16)
Outlook: It’s still do-or-die for the Battery as it visits the Charlotte Independence, but a win at American Legion Memorial Stadium and a Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC victory against Miami FC opens an intriguing idea – Charleston vs. Miami at Patriots Points on the final day of the regular season. It’s as big a long-shot as the Battery right now, but we can still dream, right?
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Hartford Athletic, New York Red Bulls II, Loudoun United FC

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