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USL Championship Playoff Projections – Oct. 13

By USLChampionship.com Staff, 10/12/21, 3:30PM EDT

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Top-three meetings in Mountain, Pacific Division take midweek spotlight in postseason races


El Paso Locomotive FC will continue its drive toward the Mountain Division title on Wednesday night as it hosts third-placed Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC. | Photo courtesy Ivan Pierre Aguirre / El Paso Locomotive FC

After both El Paso Locomotive FC and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC joined the teams already in the field for the 2021 USL Championship this past weekend, and the Tampa Bay Rowdies became the second division title winner, Week 26’s midweek slate can’t see any teams clinch a playoff place immediately, but contains some key games in the Central, Mountain and Pacific Division races as teams vie for a top-two finish, or even a division title.

Here are four games to watch as the picture comes further into focus, and where everyone stands in the big picture as we start the third-to-last week of the season.

Matches to Watch


Memphis 901 FC
Central
Wednesday, October 13
8:00 PM ET
AutoZone Park
Louisville City FC
Central

Memphis 901 FC fell on Sunday night to San Antonio FC, but thanks to Austin Bold FC’s late equalizer against OKC Energy FC they still hold an eight-point cushion in the available point column going into this midweek contest against Louisville City FC. If 901 FC can find a way to take a point – as it did when these teams last met at AutoZone Park – it would not only edge the side closer to a postseason berth, but would also open the door a little wider for Birmingham Legion FC’s bid to take first place in the Central Division. LouCity will want to avoid that, take victory and maybe raise the temperature a little more on 901 FC before its game with Atlanta United 2 at the weekend.

El Paso Locomotive FC
Mountain
Wednesday, October 13
9:00 PM ET
Southwest University Park
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Mountain

El Paso Locomotive FC has clinched its playoff place, and still has a shot at the best record in the league after the Tampa Bay Rowdies’ setback on Sunday night. If it’s going to earn that spot, it needs to find a way to beat Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC on its home turf, with the sides having played to three draws so far this season. For the Switchbacks, Wednesday night is a chance to get what was a well-below par performance behind them and also take another step toward closing out its return to the postseason. If the visitors take victory, a playoff place would certainly be within reach this weekend.

Orange County SC
Pacific
Wednesday, October 13
10:00 PM ET
Championship Soccer Stadium
Phoenix Rising FC
Pacific

The baton for the chance to close out the best record in the league was handed to Phoenix Rising FC on Sunday night after the Tampa Bay Rowdies’ loss to Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, which meant Rising FC now has the highest ceiling at a maximum of 74 points. If it’s going to hold on to that edge, it will need to take a second victory in the past 11 days on the road against an Orange County SC side that is still well set, but not completely out of the woods yet when it comes to its playoff spot after last Saturday’s defeat against Tacoma Defiance. Both teams need three points, and that should make this fascinating.

Sacramento Republic FC
Pacific
Wednesday, October 13
10:30 PM ET
Heart Health Park
LA Galaxy II
Pacific

There’s no way around it – it’s getting close to do-or-die time for Republic FC, especially with the LA Galaxy II coming to Heart Health Park. After Los Dos’ victory last weekend in Las Vegas and Sacramento’s defeat in San Diego, there’s now a six-point difference between the maximum available points for the two sides, with the Galaxy II currently projecting to end the season in fourth spot. If Republic FC falls here – as it did to the Galaxy II on September 26 when they last met in Northern California – it might mark the beginning of the end for the host’s season.

Standings


Pacific Division

Phoenix Rising FC
1. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 19-4-5, 62pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (Clinched)
Max. Points Available: 74pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at OC (10/13), at LV (10/16)
Phoenix has the inside track to the best record in the league going into this week but a big test against an Orange County SC side it narrowly got past in their recent meeting thanks to a stellar performance by goalkeeper Andre Rawls. Three points is a must, as it is on the road against Las Vegas Lights FC on Saturday, or the baton gets passed back to Tampa Bay with the playoff prize of homefield advantage at stake.
2. San Diego Loyal SC
2. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 14-10-4, 46pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 2nd (96%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 3pts
Up Next:vs. NM (10/17)
SD Loyal has reached the point of win-and-you’re-in after this weekend’s games, but the side could also lock up second place in the Pacific as well. Should Orange County SC fall to Phoenix Rising FC on Wednesday night and then fail to defeat Oakland Roots SC on Saturday – or vice versa – its maximum available points mark would drop to 47. Then if the LA Galaxy II fail to win against either Sacramento Republic FC on Wednesday or El Paso Locomotive FC on Sunday – dropping their maximum available points to at best 48 with one draw in the two games – then San Diego would clinch second place with victory against New Mexico United on Sunday afternoon on Torero Stadium.
3. Orange County SC
3. Orange County SC
Record: 10-10-7, 37pts
Playoff Odds: 87%
Projected Finish: 3rd (61%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: 12pts
Up Next: vs. PHX (10/13), at OAK (10/16)
Orange County is still in control of its path, but it could certainly do itself some good this week in that regard. Taking points off Phoenix at home before a six-pointer against Oakland Roots SC on the road this Saturday would be a good confidence boost, with the latter of the two games this week for OCSC the more important in terms of reaching the postseason.
4. LA Galaxy II
4. LA Galaxy II
Record: 10-12-5, 35pts
Playoff Odds: 54%
Projected Finish: 4th (31%)
Max. Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: 14pts
Up Next: at SAC (10/13); vs. ELP (10/17)
The LA Galaxy II head back to Heart Health Park on Wednesday with a chance to not only maintain its own course to the postseason but hand their oldest rival a potentially fatal blow. Whether you’re a fan or a neutral, this game should be a must-see.
5. Oakland Roots SC
5. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 9-12-7, 34pts
Playoff Odds: 18%
Projected Finish: 6th (32%)
Max. Points Available: 46pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. OC (10/16)
Oakland still sits in fifth place after its defeat to Phoenix Rising FC this weekend, but is down to sixth in available points with both the LA Galaxy II and Tacoma Defiance holding an edge with their games in hand. That means Roots SC fans should be cheering on Sacramento Republic FC against LA and Las Vegas Lights FC against Tacoma on Wednesday night with hopesof dropped points before the weekend.
6. Tacoma Defiance
6. Tacoma Defiance
Record: 9-12-6, 33pts
Playoff Odds: 29%
Projected Finish: 5th (25%)
Max. Points Available: 48pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. LV (10/13), at SAC (10/17)
Tacoma broke out in a big way against Orange County SC on Saturday night and will try to continue that second half momentum into its game at home to Las Vegas Lights FC on Wednesday night. A victory there, and a draw or defeat for the LA Galaxy II against Sacramento Republic FC, and the Defiance would be back above the playoff line at the end of Wednesday’s action.
6. Sacramento Republic FC
6. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 8-12-8, 32pts
Playoff Odds: 12%
Projected Finish: 7th (41%)
Max. Points Available: 44pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. LA (10/13), vs. TAC (10/17)
This is about as crucial a week as Sacramento will face in its bid for the postseason. Two home games against two of the three teams it’s trying to reel in, and they’re effectively must-wins because Republic FC can’t really afford to let its maximum available points drop any lower at this point. A loss to Los Dos on Wednesday would be a devastating blow.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Las Vegas Lights FC

Mountain Division

2. El Paso Locomotive FC
1. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 15-2-10, 55pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (99%)
Max Points Available: 70pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. COS (10/13), at LA (10/17)
Locomotive FC locked up its third consecutive playoff berth before the end of its contest with FC Tulsa, and then closed out three points in impressive fashion. By then end of this week, El Paso could also have locked up the division crown if it takes a pair of victories against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC and the LA Galaxy II or one win and a draw or defeat for San Antonio FC against FC Tulsa on Saturday night.
2. San Antonio FC
2. San Antonio FC
Record: 13-7-8, 47pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish:2nd (74%)
Max. Points Available: 59pts
Magic Number: 5pts
Up Next: vs. TUL (10/16)
San Antonio not only holds the tiebreaker over Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC, but now a two-point cushion with four games to go. A playoff place is there for the taking this weekend if SAFC takes victory at home to FC Tulsa and both New Mexico United and Rio Grande Valley FC drop points in their matches.
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 12-7-9, 45pts
Playoff Odds: 97%
Projected Finish: 3rd (61%)
Max. Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: 7pts
Up Next: at ELP (10/13), vs. RGV (10/16)
The Switchbacks can also clinch a playoff spot this weekend, and they don’t have to defeat El Paso Locomotive FC to do so. A draw against the division leaders and a win against Rio Grande Valley FC on Saturday night plus a defeat for New Mexico United against San Diego Loyal SC on Sunday would be enough to send Colorado Springs back to the postseason. If the Switchbacks can pull out two victories, though, it would mean it only needs a draw between New Mexico and San Diego to keep the pressure on San Antonio for second place.
4. Austin Bold FC
4. Austin Bold FC
Record: 10-7-10, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 43%
Projected Finish:5th (35%)
Max. Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: 12pts
Up Next: at BHM (10/13), at SLC (10/16)
Austin had a big chance to separate from New Mexico United and Rio Grande Valley FC after their draw on Saturday evening, but that result at least kept Bold FC in a solid place ahead of its two-game week. Going to Birmingham Legion FC and bringing away a result could be a challenge, though, which would turn up the pressure for Saturday’s visit to Real Monarchs SLC.
5. New Mexico United
5. New Mexico United
Record: 10-9-9, 39pts
Playoff Odds: 35%
Projected Finish: 5th (33%)
Max. Points Available: 51pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at SD (10/17)
Saturday’s draw wasn’t great for United’s chances at the postseason, and the next three games are going to be difficult with the potential San Diego Loyal SC could be playing to clinch a home playoff game on Sunday night depending on how the rest of the week shapes up before games against San Antonio FC and Rio Grande Valley FC. New Mexico and its fans should be tuned into Wednesday’s game between Birmingham Legion FC and Austin Bold FC, hoping the visitors take a tumble.
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 10-10-8, 38pts
Playoff Odds: 26%
Projected Finish: 6th (45%)
Max. Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at COS (10/16)
On the plus side for Rio Grande Valley FC, they get a week to prepare for the trip to Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC on Saturday while the Switchbacks have to face El Paso Locomotive FC on the road. It’s getting to must-win territory for the Toros, though, while also hoping that Austin and New Mexico stumble down the stretch.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Real Monarchs SLC

Central Division

1. Louisville City FC
1. Louisville City FC
Record: 16-5-7, 55pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (71%)
Max. Points Available: 67pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at MEM (10/13), at IND (10/16)
LouCity left it late but got the win it needed against Sporting Kansas City II on Saturday night to stay ahead of Birmingham Legion FC. Now it faces two key road games – including the final LIPAFC of the season – as Legion FC gets its own tricky opponents for what should be a fascinating week in the only real race for first place that remains.
2. Birmingham Legion FC
2. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 16-7-5, 53pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (71%)
Max. Points Available:65pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. ATX (10/13); at OKC (10/17)
Legion FC has the momentum with four consecutive victories, but it’s going to get a test this week from an Austin Bold FC side that is fighting for its postseason life in the Mountain Division before a visit to Taft Stadium, where OKC Energy FC had build a nine-game undefeated streak before its loss last Sunday to San Antonio FC.
3. FC Tulsa
3. FC Tulsa
Record: 12-12-3, 39pts
Playoff Odds: 96%
Projected Finish: 3rd (64%)
Max. Points Available: 54pts
Magic Number: 7pts
Up Next: at SA (10/16)
With both Oklahoma sides only playing once this week, Tulsa can’t quite get to the finish line by the end of the weekend. The club’s visit to San Antonio FC should be an intriguing contest, though, and one Tulsa will be looking to win to bring that finish line closer before it cheers on Birmingham Legion FC on Sunday evening.
4. Memphis 901 FC
4. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 10-9-8, 38pts
Playoff Odds: 94%
Projected Finish: 4th (59%)
Max. Points Available: 53pts
Magic Number: 8pts
Up Next: vs. LOU (10/13), vs. ATL (10/16)
Four of Memphis’ last five games are at home, and it still has a solid cushion in terms of available points over OKC Energy FC for fourth place, which is why it’s such a solid prospect to be part of the playoff field by the numbers. Getting at least one win out of this week is going to be key to keeping that momentum going as Louisville City FC and Atlanta United 2 come to visit AutoZone Park.
5. OKC Energy FC
5. OKC Energy FC
Record: 8-9-12, 36pts
Playoff Odds: 8%
Projected Finish: 5th (75%)
Max. Points Available: 45pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. BHM (10/17)
OKC Energy FC will be the biggest Louisville City FC fans outside of Kentucky on Wednesday night as it hopes for Memphis 901 FC to fall for a second consecutive game, and then Louisville will reciprocate on Sunday evening with Energy FC playing host to Birmingham Legion FC at Taft Stadium.
6. Atlanta United 2
6. Atlanta United 2
Record: 7-12-10, 31pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 7th (58%)
Max. Points Available: 40pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at SKC (10/13, at MEM (10/16)
Atlanta has reached the point of no return. If it fails to take victory against Sporting Kansas City II on Wednesday night and Memphis 901 FC gets a draw against Louisville City FC, then Atlanta is eliminated.
7. Indy Eleven
7. Indy Eleven
Record: 8-14-7, 31pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 6th (50%)
Max. Points Available: 40pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. LOU (10/16)
Indy is also behind the 8-ball after Sunday’s loss against Birmingham Legion FC. Even a win against Louisville City FC on Saturday night – which would also be cheered heartily in Birmingham – might not be enough to keep Indy alive if both Memphis 901 FC and FC Tulsa take victories this week as well.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Sporting Kansas City II

Atlantic Division

1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 20-7-1, 61pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (>99%)
Max. Points Available: 73pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. NY (10/15)
The Rowdies clinched the Atlantic Division before it kicked off against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC on Sunday night, so the only bad thing about the end of the club’s nine-game winning streak was it handed the inside track to the best record in the league to Phoenix Rising FC. Tampa Bay fans will be looking for Orange County to get a result – because a draw would be good enough – to put the Rowdies back in the driver’s seat.
2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 15-8-6, 51pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (42%)
Max. Points Available: 60pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at MIA (10/16)
The Hounds are back in the playoffs, and now they’re got a real chance at a top-two finish as well. The biggest hurdle would seem to arrive this weekend as the Hounds hit the road to face Miami for the final time looking for revenge after letting two leads slip in their last trip to FIU Stadium. A win there, and it keeps the pressure on Charlotte to keep winning as well.
3. Charlotte Independence
3. Charlotte Independence
Record: 15-9-4, 49pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 3rd (43%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: 1pts
Up Next: vs. CHS (10/16)
The Independence can close out the playoff field in the Atlantic Division with a draw against the Charleston Battery at home on Saturday night – which would drop Charleston’s maximum available points to 47 and put Miami FC in as well – but it’s going to be looking for a win as it tries to surpass Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC for second place and a home game in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals with four games to go.
4. The Miami FC
4. The Miami FC
Record: 14-8-6, 48pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 4th (62%)
Max. Points Available: 60pts
Magic Number: 2pts
Up Next: vs. PIT (10/16)
Miami’s defeat at Loudoun United FC could end up being one of the most costly of the playoff race, but the side still has a chance at second place when it’s all said and done. To get there it will need to take victory against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC on Saturday night ahead of a key showdown with the Tampa Bay Rowdies next week.
5. Charleston Battery
5. Charleston Battery
Record: 9-11-7, 34pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 5th (57%)
Max. Points Available: 49pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at CLT (10/16)
The Battery are still alive, but barely. Anything but a win against the Charlotte Independence on Saturday and it’s over for Charleston.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Hartford Athletic, New York Red Bulls II, Loudoun United FC

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