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USL Championship Playoff Projections – Oct. 6

By USLChampionship.com Staff, 10/05/21, 1:00PM EDT

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Western Conference races in spotlight for Wednesday night’s action


El Paso Locomotive FC and San Antonio FC square off in a top-three clash in the Mountain Division that highlights Wednesday night's slate in the USL Championship. | Photo courtesy Ivan Pierre Aguirre / El Paso Locomotive FC

Birmingham Legion FC, the Tampa Bay Rowdies and Louisville City FC each earned their places in the 2021 USL Championship Playoffs this past weekend, and there could be more to come in the Eastern Conference by the end of Week 25 with a busy slate and teams within range of clinching should results fall their way.

To start the week, though, the spotlight falls mainly on the Western Conference on Wednesday night where we see a meeting between two teams below the playoff line but in control of their playoff fate, and a crucial game around the playoff line in the Pacific Division.

Here are three games to watch as the picture comes further into focus, and where everyone stands in the big picture.

Matches to Watch


Austin Bold FC
Mountain
Wednesday, October 6
9:00 PM EST
Bold Stadium
Tacoma Defiance
Pacific

It might seem odd with both teams sitting below the playoff line in their respective divisions, but Austin Bold FC and the Tacoma Defiance still control their path to the postseason thanks to the game in hand they each hold in the Mountain and Pacific Divisions. That’s going to change for the team that comes out on the short end of this interdivision tilt – and both if the game ends all square – which will provide serious incentive for both teams to push in attack and find a victory that will keep their playoff chances under their control.

El Paso Locomotive FC
Mountain
Wednesday, October 6
9:00 PM EST
Southwest University Park
San Antonio FC
Mountain

El Paso Locomotive FC’s home undefeated streak is at 21 games across the regular season and playoffs as it welcomes the last team to defeat Locomotive FC on its travels in San Antonio FC, which is now in third place in the Mountain Division. This is a key game for both teams; in El Paso’s case, it could clinch a playoff berth with a victory should either Austin Bold FC lose to Tacoma Defiance – with a 2-0-1 record this season, El Paso holds the head-to-head tiebreaker on Bold FC if Austin’s maximum drops to 54 points – or New Mexico United be held to a draw by Hartford Athletic – which would drop United’s maximum to 53 points. On San Antonio’s side, though, there’s a chance to jump into second place ahead of Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC with a draw or a win as SAFC holds a 2-0-1 record against the Switchbacks and the head-to-head tiebreaker. That should make for another engaging clash between these two.

Oakland Roots SC
Pacific
Wednesday, October 6
10:00 PM EST
Laney College Stadium
Sacramento Republic FC
Pacific

Both Oakland Roots SC and Sacramento Republic FC don’t control their playoff path going into this clash at Laney Stadium, but the winner between the NorCal rivals could take a big step toward that position and put a major dent into the chances of its regional rival. Republic FC is coming off a 3-1 victory on Saturday night against the side both teams are looking to slip up in Tacoma Defiance but has yet to defeat Oakland this year as they meet for the fourth and final time in the regular season. Roots SC has let points slip away in its last two games, meanwhile, and needs to get back on track with the fewest available points of the four teams vying for that fourth spot.

Standings


Pacific Division

Phoenix Rising FC
1. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 18-4-5, 59pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (Clinched)
Max. Points Available: 74pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. OAK (10/9)
Two goals down, one to go. Phoenix is your Pacific Division winner, and now will keep the pedal down to try and stay close to the Tampa Bay Rowdies in the race of the best record in the league.
2. San Diego Loyal SC
2. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 13-10-4, 43pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 2nd (78%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 8
Up Next:vs. SAC 10/9
San Diego will be watching Wednesday night’s action closely as it could open a path for the side to clinch a playoff place this weekend. For that to happen, Tacoma would need to lose to Austin Bold FC – dropping the Defiance to a maximum of 48pts – and Oakland Roots SC and Sacramento Republic FC would need to draw – dropping Oakland to a maximum of 47 and Republic FC to a maximum of 48. Should those both happen, a combination of Orange County defeating Tacoma – which would drop the Defiance to a maximum of 45pts – San Diego defeating Sacramento – which would drop Republic FC to a maximum of 45pts – and a draw or defeat for Oakland against Phoenix – which would drop Oakland to at most 45pts – would put San Diego clear of all three as well as Las Vegas Lights FC and clinch a playoff berth on 46 points. If Tacoma wins or draws, or one of Sacramento and Oakland wins on Wednesday, SD Loyal would have to wait a little bit longer.
3. Orange County SC
3. Orange County SC
Record: 10-9-7, 37pts
Playoff Odds: 93%
Projected Finish: 3rd (57%)
Max. Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: 14pts
Up Next: at TAC (10/9)
Orange County is still on course for the postseason, but it’s going to be a trickier road to reach a top-two finish after Saturday’s frustrating loss to Phoenix Rising FC. Saturday’s visit to Tacoma is going to be important for OCSC to get back on track but could have bigger repercussions in the division as well.
4. LA Galaxy II
4. LA Galaxy II
Record: 9-12-5, 32pts
Playoff Odds: 33%
Projected Finish: 5th (28%)
Max. Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at LV (10/8)
With Sacramento Republic FC and Oakland Roots SC square off on Wednesday night, Los Dos won’t still be in fourth place at the end of Wednesday night. They’d certainly like to see a draw in that contest, though, and Tacoma fail to get a win in Austin, which would put LA back in control of its playoff path ahead of Friday’s visit to Las Vegas.
5. Sacramento Republic FC
5. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 8-10-8, 32pts
Playoff Odds: 46%
Projected Finish: 4th (35%)
Max. Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at OAK (10/6), at SD (10/9)
Republic FC is now a slight favorite among the four teams vying for fourth place, but that could change in a hurry this week if it can’t follow up Saturday’s win against the Defiance. Picking up consecutive victories for the first time since the opening two games of the season on Wednesday by defeating Oakland would be massive for Head Coach Mark Briggs’ side.
6. Oakland Roots SC
6. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 8-11-7, 31pts
Playoff Odds: 11%
Projected Finish: 7th (41%)
Max. Points Available: 49pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SAC (10/6), at PHX (10/9)
Oakland went from sitting alongside Tacoma Defiance in control of its playoff path on Saturday night to having the smallest margin for error of the four teams competing for fourth place after Las Vegas Lights FC’s late equalizer. Now Roots SC really must beat Sacramento to get an edge on Republic FC and hope the Tacoma Defiance fall against Austin Bold FC as well to leave the LA Galaxy II as the lone team that has more available points than it does.
6. Tacoma Defiance
7. Tacoma Defiance
Record: 8-11-6, 30pts
Playoff Odds: 17%
Projected Finish: 7th (34%)
Max. Points Available: 51pts
Magic Number: 21pts
Up Next: at ATX (10/6), vs. OC (10/9)
It’s not quite do-or-die time for Tacoma, but if it can’t take victory against Austin Bold FC on Wednesday night it will relinquish control of its playoff path ahead of Saturday’s return home to face Orange County SC.
8. Las Vegas Lights FC
8. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 5-19-3, 18pts
Playoff Odds:<1%
Project Finish: 8th (>99%)
Max. Points Available: 33pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. LA (10/8)
Las Vegas Lights FC produced a brilliant late reaction to earn a point against Oakland Roots SC that everyone else in the division will have been thrilled it earned. If one of Tacoma Defiance, Oakland or Sacramento Republic FC wins on Wednesday, though, mathematical elimination arrives before Friday’s game with the LA Galaxy II.

Mountain Division

2. El Paso Locomotive FC
1. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 14-2-9, 51pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 1st (93%)
Max Points Available: 72pts
Magic Number: 5pts
Up Next: vs. SA (10/6), at TUL (10/9)
Locomotive FC can clinch its playoff place as early as Wednesday night as with a win against San Antonio it would move to 54 points. Should either Austin Bold FC lose to Tacoma Defiance and drop to a maximum available of 54 points – in which circumstance El Paso holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Austin and would be clear – or New Mexico United fail to beat Hartford Athletic – where a draw would drop United to a maximum of 53 points available – Locomotive FC would be back for a third consecutive postseason.
2. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
2. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 12-7-8, 44pts
Playoff Odds: 95%
Projected Finish: 3rd (45%)
Max. Points Available: 59pts
Magic Number: 12pts
Up Next: at SLC (10/8)
The Switchbacks aren’t likely to catch El Paso Locomotive FC for first place with only five games to go and a seven-point margin to make up. That means they should be rooting for Locomotive FC on Wednesday as it hosts San Antonio FC, which would pass Colorado Springs for second place with either a draw – SAFC has a 2-0-1 head-to-head edge on the Switchbacks – or a win.
2. San Antonio FC
3. San Antonio FC
Record: 12-7-7, 43pts
Playoff Odds: 97%
Projected Finish:2nd (53%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: 13pts
Up Next: at ELP (10/6), vs. MEM (10/10)
San Antonio was the last team to defeat Locomotive FC on August 28 at Toyota Field, but now it’s got to try and accomplish the same at Southwest University Park, where it fell 2-0 in its last visit. If SAFC can pull out a draw, though, it would still go ahead of Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC having clinched the head-to-head series between the clubs with a 2-0-1 record.
4. New Mexico United
4. New Mexico United
Record: 10-9-7, 37pts
Playoff Odds: 56%
Projected Finish: 4th (38%)
Max. Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. HFD (10/6), vs. RGV (10/9)
New Mexico returns home for what could be a crucial week to its postseason chances. To start, it will try to earn victory against Hartford Athletic on Wednesday night and hope that the Tacoma Defiance can take points off Austin Bold FC as well, which would put United back in control of its playoff path ahead of Saturday’s showdown with Rio Grande Valley FC.
5. Rio Grande Valley FC
5. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 10-10-7, 37pts
Playoff Odds: 21%
Projected Finish: 6th (51%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at NM (10/9)
The Toros have to sit and watch on Wednesday night, and they’ll be hoping that both New Mexico United and Austin Bold FC take a tumble. With the fewest available points of the three teams, victory against New Mexico on Saturday night is looking almost essential.
6. Austin Bold FC
6. Austin Bold FC
Record: 9-7-9, 36pts
Playoff Odds: 31%
Projected Finish:5th (40%)
Max. Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: 20pts
Up Next: vs. TAC (10/6), vs. OKC (10/10)
Bold FC got pushed back up into controlling its playoff path after New Mexico United’s loss to Louisville City FC on Sunday, but it’s got to make the most of its two home games this week to remain in that position. Tacoma has struggled for form of late, but Austin shouldn’t take the Defiance for granted as they’re in the exact same situation when it comes to fighting for a playoff place.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Real Monarchs SLC

Central Division

1. Louisville City FC
1. Louisville City FC
Record: 15-5-7, 52pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (74%)
Max. Points Available: 67pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SKC (10/9)
LouCity got the home win it needed to both clinch a playoff place and regain top spot in the Central Division, but after this Saturday’s game with SKC II it closes with three of four on the road. Everyone better have put a circle around that October 30 game at Birmingham Legion FC.
2. Birmingham Legion FC
2. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 15-7-5, 40pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 2nd (73%)
Max. Points Available:65pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. IND (10/10)
Legion FC, but contrast, plays four of its final five games at BBVA Field, starting on Sunday evening against an Indy Eleven side that is now on the verge of elimination. Birmingham’s going to have to be on its game for that contest, where Junior Flemmings will be absent due to international duty.
3. FC Tulsa
3. FC Tulsa
Record: 12-11-3, 39pts
Playoff Odds: 97%
Projected Finish: 3rd (72%)
Max. Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: 9pts
Up Next: vs. ELP (10/9)
Tulsa was desperately unfortunate in its loss to Memphis 901 FC and will be hoping Memphis drops points in midweek as it hosts Sporting Kansas City II at home to keep a small gap between the two teams going into the final six games. A big test arrives in Tulsa on Saturday, though, with Mountain Division leader El Paso Locomotive FC coming to town for a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Quarterfinal between the sides that went to a penalty shootout.
4. OKC Energy FC
4. OKC Energy FC
Record: 8-9-11, 35pts
Playoff Odds: 11%
Projected Finish: 5th (63%)
Max. Points Available: 47pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at ATX (10/10)
The standings still show Energy FC in fourth, but that playoff odds percentage is not ideal after Sunday’s defeat to a San Antonio side that was just better until the very final moments. Energy FC can’t be eliminated this week, but it needs Memphis to fall flat in both of its games this week and to defeat Austin Bold FC on the road on Sunday for hope to return.
5. Memphis 901 FC
5. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 9-8-8, 32pts
Playoff Odds: 88%
Projected Finish: 4th (61%)
Max. Points Available: 56pts
Magic Number: 13pts
Up Next: vs. SKC (10/6), at SA (10/10)
Memphis’ victory in Tulsa – as much early good fortune as the side received – gave it a theoretical nine-point cushion on OKC Energy FC for fourth place. Should 901 FC run its undefeated streak to five games with a win against Sporting Kansas City II on Wednesday, it may not need to look in the rear-view mirror again.
6. Atlanta United 2
6. Atlanta United 2
Record: 7-12-10, 31pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 7th (62%)
Max. Points Available: 40pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at SKC (10/13)
Atlanta’s playoff chances are almost gone, but you’ve got to admire a team that says, “We’re not going, but we’re going to drag you down with us anyway,” as this group did to Indy Eleven with Saturday’s 95th-minute equalizer.
7. Indy Eleven
7. Indy Eleven
Record: 8-13-7, 31pts
Playoff Odds: 3%
Projected Finish: 6th (48%)
Max. Points Available: 43pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at BHM (10/10)
If you wanted a summation of Indy’s season, that gut-punch from Atlanta United 2 on Saturday night would be it. It’s all-or-nothing time against Birmingham Legion FC on Sunday night and holding out hope that Memphis collapses down the stretch.
8. Sporting Kansas City II
8. Sporting Kansas City II
Record: 4-15-8, 20pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 8th (>99%)
Max. Points Available: 35pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at MEM (10/6); at LOU (10/9)
Sporting isn’t quite mathematically eliminated yet. Anything but a win against Memphis on Wednesday, though, and that moment arrives.

Atlantic Division

1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 19-6-1, 58pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (>99%)
Max. Points Available: 76pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. CHS (10/7); at PIT (10/10)
The Rowdies have booked their playoff place, and with Miami FC’s maximum available points sitting at 63, Tampa Bay is only six points away from clinching the Atlantic Division title as it goes into this week’s action. A pair of wins against the Charleston Battery and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, and regardless of what else happens, the Rowdies are going to finish on top. On top of that, they’ll still be in line for the best record in the regular season.
2. The Miami FC
2. The Miami FC
Record: 14-7-6, 48pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 2nd (41%)
Max. Points Available: 63pts
Magic Number: 5pts
Up Next: at LDN (10/10)
Miami isn’t in action until Sunday night on the road against Loudoun United FC, but it will be watching the midweek action. If Hartford Athletic drops points on the road against New Mexico United on Wednesday and the Charleston Battery drop points to the Tampa Bay Rowdies on Thursday, Miami will be in a win-and-you’re in situation against Loudoun.
3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
3. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 14-8-6, 48pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
Projected Finish: 4th (44%)
Max. Points Available: 60pts
Magic Number: 5pts
Up Next: vs. TBR (10/10)
The Hounds find themselves in third place, and under pressure from the Charlotte Independence for third having played one game more than the North Carolina side going into this week. The recipe for clinching a playoff place is the same as for Miami, though, with Hartford Athletic dropping points to New Mexico United and the Charleston Battery dropping points to the Tampa Bay Rowdies. The Hounds then have to face the Rowdies on Sunday, though, which on paper is a slightly tougher assignment than defeating Loudoun, as Miami will be facing.
4. Charlotte Independence
4. Charlotte Independence
Record: 14-9-4, 46pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 3rd (38%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: 7pts
Up Next: vs. NY (10/9)
There’s a path for the Independence to clinch a playoff berth this week, starting with both Hartford Athletic dropping points against New Mexico United on Wednesday – a draw would move Hartford’s maximum to 49pts, a loss would move it to 48pts – and the Charleston Battery dropping points to the Tampa Bay Rowdies on Thursday – a draw would drop Charleston’s maximum to 50pts, a loss to 49pts. Should Charlotte then win to move to 49pts against the New York Red Bulls II on Saturday, a Hartford victory or a draw when it faces Charleston on Sunday would clinch Charlotte’s playoff place. If Hartford wins, Charleston drops to a highest potential maximum of 47pts, and while the Athletic could still have a maximum available points of 49, Charlotte holds a 3-0-0 record against the Athletic and the first tiebreaker to put it clear. Should the teams draw, Charleston would drop to at best 48pts available, while Hartford would drop to at best 47pts, also putting the Independence in with a win.
5. Charleston Battery
5. Charleston Battery
Record: 8-10-7, 31pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 6th (52%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at TBR (10/7), vs. HFD (10/10)
It’s do-or-die time now for the Battery, as with a second consecutive loss to the Tampa Bay Rowdies on Thursday night the side will be on the brink of elimination. That’s probably coming anyway – bringing the side’s lengthy playoff streak to an end – but this team certainly won’t go down without a fight.
6. Hartford Athletic
6. Hartford Athletic
Record: 9-13-3, 30pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 5th (52%)
Max. Points Available: 51pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at NM (10/6), at CHS (10/10)
Hartford has the unenviable task of taking on a New Mexico United side that will be as desperate as it is for victory on Wednesday night on the road. If it gets through that with a win, it could still get eliminated on Sunday as it heads to face the Charleston Battery should the Charlotte Independence take victory against the New York Red Bulls II on Saturday.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: New York Red Bulls II, Loudoun United FC

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