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USL Championship Playoff Projections – Oct. 1-3

By USLChampionship.com Staff, 10/01/21, 1:00PM EDT

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Louisville, Birmingham and Tampa Bay are all within reach of the playoffs going into the weekend


Phoenix Rising FC and Orange County SC square off on Saturday night in one of this weekend's key games in the postseason race. | Photo courtesy Ashley Orellana / Phoenix Rising FC

The first three berths in the Eastern Conference bracket for the 2021 USL Championship Playoffs can be claimed this weekend as the Tampa Bay Rowdies aim to maintain their winning streak in the Atlantic Division and both Louisville City FC and Birmingham Legion FC take aim at continuing their postseason streaks while battling for first place in the Central.

With 14 games across the next three days, though, there is the potential for plenty of movement in the battle to reach the playoffs in all four divisions, with matchups featuring the top two teams in the Mountain Division and two of the top three in the Pacific highlighting Saturday’s slate.

Here are four games to watch as the picture comes further into focus, and where everyone stands in the big picture.

Matches to Watch


The Miami FC
Atlantic
Saturday, October 2
7:00 PM EST
FIU Stadium
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Atlantic

It’s almost certain that both second-placed Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and third-placed Miami FC are going to the postseason in the Atlantic Division, but with three points separating the sides and Miami holding a game in hand on the Hounds ahead of their meeting on Saturday in South Florida this game could prove key as to which side claims second spot and the home playoff game that comes with it in November, even with the Charlotte Independence coming up fast in the rear-view mirror. Miami has earned a win and a draw from its two visits to Highmark Stadium this season, which means with a win on Saturday it would not only move level with Pittsburgh on points but claim the head-to-head tiebreaker having earned the edge in the season series between the sides.

Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Atlantic
Saturday, October 2
8:00 PM EST
Weidner Field
El Paso Locomotive FC
Mountain

With its victory on Wednesday night, El Paso Locomotive FC opened up a seven-point lead on second-placed Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC as it heads to Weidner Field on Saturday night. While the division race might be out of reach for the Switchbacks with six games to go in its season, though, earning a result against Locomotive FC on home turf is still important as it tries to hold onto second spot ahead of San Antonio FC. These two teams have finished all square in their first two meetings this season, including a 0-0 draw when they met at Weidner Field on September 15. With Colorado Springs’ Hadji Barry gunning for the Championship’s single season scoring record and El Paso in need of victory to put pressure on Phoenix Rising FC for the best record in the Western Conference, this could be a more open game than the prior encounter, and highly entertaining as a result.

Orange County SC
Pacific
Saturday, October 2
10:00 PM EST
Championship Soccer Stadium
Phoenix Rising FC
Pacific

Phoenix Rising FC’s surprise Wednesday night defeat to the LA Galaxy II knocked it out of prime position for the best record in the league and level with El Paso Locomotive FC is available points at 74 in the race for the best record in the Western Conference. That will put added pressure on its visit to Orange County SC, where the side is only 0-2-4 since the start of the 2017 regular season in its visits to Championship Soccer Stadium, including a loss and a draw last season. For Orange County, a positive result would be another big step toward the postseason as well, and would make Phoenix wait once again to clinch the Pacific Division title.

Louisville City FC
Central
Sunday, October 3
3:00 PM EST
Lynn Family Stadium
New Mexico United
Mountain

The nationally matchup between Louisville City FC and New Mexico United was one that many might have circled on the calendar when it was announced at the start of the season, but the recent form of both clubs has made it an important one in the playoff race in the Central and Mountain Divisions. For LouCity, there is the opportunity to clinch a playoff place with a point but after drawing three of its last four games – including a 1-1 result away to Atlanta United 2 on Wednesday – the side could need a win to remain in first place in the Central with Birmingham Legion FC only two points behind as it takes to the field against Sporting Kansas City II on Friday night. New Mexico, meanwhile, has taken control of its playoff path with three consecutive wins after a 2-0 victory against Rio Grande Valley FC on Wednesday, but needs to keep that run going as it battles the Toros and Austin Bold FC for the fourth and final playoff position in the Mountain Division. That should produce a compelling contest.

Pacific Division

Phoenix Rising FC
1. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 17-4-5, 56pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (>99%)
Max. Points Available: 74pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at OC (10/2)
Phoenix’s first defeat to the LA Galaxy II since 2016 didn’t really impact the club’s chances of winning the Pacific Division – it can still clinch top spot with a victory against Orange County SC – but did put the side behind in the race for the best record in the league. That’s the bigger reason the side needs to end a six-game regular-season winless streak at Championship Soccer Stadium.
2. San Diego Loyal SC
2. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 12-10-4, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 97%
Projected Finish: 2nd (55%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 14pts
Up Next: at LA (10/2)
After the LA Galaxy II’s win on Wednesday night, this isn’t looking as simple a trip as it did three weeks ago. Getting a victory would be a big step toward the playoffs, and SD Loyal will be hoping Phoenix Rising FC can help it out with a win against Orange County SC as well.
3. Orange County SC
3. Orange County SC
Record: 10-8-7, 37pts
Playoff Odds: 93%
Projected Finish: 3rd (41%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 17pts
Up Next: vs. PHX (10/2)
There are two ways this could go for Orange County SC this weekend. It could maintain an impressive 2-0-4 home record in the regular season against Phoenix Rising FC since 2017 and continue its push toward the postseason, or it could face a Rising FC side determined to rebound with victory, which would ding the side’s chances of a top-two finish. Let’s see what happens.
4. LA Galaxy II
4. LA Galaxy II
Record: 9-11-5, 32pts
Playoff Odds: 46%
Projected Finish: 4th (29%)
Max. Points Available: 53pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SD (10/2)
Is this starting to feel familiar yet? The LA Galaxy II were up and down last year, but came through with the results they needed to reach the postseason. Now they’ve won three in a row – including defeating two sides they’re battling for a spot in the playoffs and are suddenly the team favored by the numbers to make it into the playoff field. They’ll try to continue that against San Diego Loyal SC on Saturday night.
5. Oakland Roots SC
5. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 8-11-6, 30pts
Playoff Odds: 18%
Projected Finish: 7th (32%)
Max. Points Available: 51pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. LV (10/2)
Roots SC dropped a spot in the standings and that makes Saturday’s home game with Las Vegas Lights FC one it needs to take three points from. If it accomplishes that, it could be back ahead of Los Dos ahead of three crucial games to follow against Sacramento Republic FC, Phoenix Rising FC and Orange County SC.
6. Tacoma Defiance
6. Tacoma Defiance
Record: 8-10-6, 30pts
Playoff Odds: 20%
Projected Finish: 7th (34%)
Max. Points Available: 54pts
Magic Number: 24pts
Up Next: at SAC (10/2)
The LA Galaxy II’s victory added even more pressure to the match between Tacoma and Sacramento Republic FC on Saturday night. The bigger pressure might be on the hosts at Heart Health Park, but Tacoma’s got to end its losing run to remain in control of its playoff path ahead of Los Dos.
7. Sacramento Republic FC
7. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 7-10-8, 29pts
Playoff Odds: 28%
Projected Finish: 5th (24%)
Max. Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs TAC (10/2)
Republic FC isn’t just seventh in the standings now. It’s also still seventh in the maximum points available column, which makes Saturday’s home game with Tacoma Defiance a must-win as it hopes for Oakland Roots SC and the LA Galaxy II to drop points as well.
8. Las Vegas Lights FC
8. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 5-19-2, 17pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Project Finish: 8th (>99%)
Max. Points Available: 35pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at OAK (10/2)
Lights FC is in win or go home mode as it visits Oakland Roots SC, but any positive result would be welcomed by the other sides battling Roots SC for the fourth spot in the postseason.

Mountain Division

2. El Paso Locomotive FC
1. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 14-2-8, 50pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
Projected Finish: 1st (93%)
Max Points Available: 74pts
Magic Number: 8pts
Up Next: at COS (10/2)
Locomotive FC got the reward its efforts against Real Monarchs SLC deserved in the end, and it got the bonus of Phoenix Rising FC’s defeat in LA to move it back into contention for the best record in the West, and maybe the league. Saturday’s visit to Colorado Springs is going to be a massive game for both clubs now.
2. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
2. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 12-7-7, 43pts
Playoff Odds: 96%
Projected Finish: 2nd (44%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: 15pts
Up Next: vs. ELP (10/2)
Colorado Springs’ chances of finishing first in the division went down with El Paso’s midweek win but taking victory on Saturday night as Locomotive FC visits is as much about maintaining an edge on San Antonio FC as it is closing the gap to the division leaders.
2. San Antonio FC
3. San Antonio FC
Record: 11-7-7, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 92%
Projected Finish:2nd (39%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: 18pts
Up Next: at OKC (10/3)
Sitting 10 point back with seven games to go, San Antonio might actually be hoping for El Paso Locomotive FC to defeat Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC on Saturday night, which would give SAFC a chance to move level on points with the Switchbacks on Sunday with victory away to OKC Energy FC.
4. New Mexico United
4. New Mexico United
Record: 10-8-7, 37pts
Playoff Odds: 67%
Projected Finish: 4th (37%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 21pts
Up Next: at LOU (10/3)
It took an inspired performance by goalkeeper Alex Tambakis, but New Mexico pulled out a third consecutive victory and remains in control of its playoff path. Now it’s got a chance to put pressure on Austin Bold FC – which doesn’t return to action until next Wednesday – with a win on Sunday, but that will be a big challenge away at Louisville.
5. Austin Bold FC
5. Austin Bold FC
Record: 9-7-9, 36pts
Playoff Odds: 32%
Projected Finish:5th (44%)
Max. Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. TAC (10/6)
Bold FC’s odds only slipped a little bit after New Mexico’s victory on Wednesday night, now they’ll be hoping to see United slip up on the road at Louisville, which would put the ball back in Austin’s court as it plays host to Tacoma next Wednesday night.
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
6. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 9-10-7, 34pts
Playoff Odds: 14%
Projected Finish: 6th (61%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SLC (10/2)
Defeat in New Mexico wasn’t the end of the line for the Toros, but they have to take victory against the now-mathematically eliminated Real Monarchs SLC on Saturday night and hope for some help from Louisville City FC on Sunday against United to get back into the picture.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: Real Monarchs SLC

Atlantic Division

1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 18-6-1, 55pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
Projected Finish: 1st (>99%)
Max. Points Available: 76pts
Magic Number: 1pts
Up Next: at CHS (10/2)
The Rowdies will have been delighted by Phoenix Rising FC’s defeat on Wednesday night, which moved Tampa Bay back into the driver’s seat for the best record in the league. To maintain that position, it will need a victory on the road against the Charleston Battery on Saturday before it sees if either Phoenix or El Paso Locomotive FC slip up.
2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 14-7-6, 48pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
Projected Finish: 2nd (42%)
Max. Points Available: 63pts
Magic Number: 8pts
Up Next: at MIA (10/2)
Clinching a playoff place is just out of reach for the Hounds this weekend, but the side has all the motivation it needs to earn another home playoff game at Highmark Stadium as it visits Miami FC. Pittsburgh hasn’t defeated Miami yet this season in two prior meetings, Saturday would be the ideal time to turn the tables and take victory at FIU Stadium.
3. The Miami FC
3. The Miami FC
Record: 13-7-6, 45pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 4nd (40%)
Max. Points Available: 63pts
Magic Number: 11pts
Up Next: vs. PIT (10/2)
A massive chance arrives for Miami this weekend at home as it hosts Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC. With a win, it would move into second place on the head-to-head tiebreaker and still hold a game in hand on the Hounds.
4. Charlotte Independence
4. Charlotte Independence
Record: 13-9-4, 43pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 3rd (40%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: 13pts
Up Next: vs. LDN (10/3)
The Independence’s late victory on Thursday night against Hartford Athletic made it almost a lock that the side will reach the playoffs and boosted its chances of finishing ahead of Miami FC according to the computers. Charlotte will keep an eye on Saturday’s game between Miami and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC, and will probably be hoping for a draw to give it a chance to close the gap further on Sunday at home to Loudoun United FC.
5. Charleston Battery
5. Charleston Battery
Record: 8-9-7, 31pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 5th (51%)
Max. Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: v. TBR (10/2)
There’s almost no margin for error at this point for the Battery after the Charlotte Independence’s victory on Thursday night. Victory against the Tampa Bay Rowdies on Saturday night is essential, or else the end of the line could arrive pretty quickly.
6. Hartford Athletic
6. Hartford Athletic
Record: 9-13-3, 30pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 6th (51%)
Max. Points Available: 54pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at NM (10/6)
The Athletic had the chance to push on for victory on Thursday night when they earned a late equalizer, but immediately let it slip away again as Dane Kelly gave the Charlotte Independence a winner a minute later. It’s not mathematically over yet, but with 13 points to make up and only seven games to go, it’s not far off either.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: New York Red Bulls II, Loudoun United FC

Central Division

1. Louisville City FC
1. Louisville City FC
Record: 14-5-7, 49pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 1st (73%)
Max. Points Available: 67pts
Magic Number: 1pt
Up Next: vs. NM (10/3)
LouCity now needs only one point to clinch its playoff place after Wednesday night’s results – and it would also clinch should OKC Energy FC fail to take victory on Sunday night against San Antonio FC – but winning at home to New Mexico United is going to be important in what’s turned into the most competitive race for first place in the four divisions.
2. Birmingham Legion FC
2. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 14-7-5, 47pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 2nd (67%)
Max. Points Available: 65pts
Magic Number: 3pts
Up Next: at SKC (10/1)
Legion FC will clinch a playoff place on Friday night with a victory against Sporting Kansas City II, and it would also be in with a draw and an OKC Energy FC draw against San Antonio FC on Sunday, or an Energy FC defeat against San Antonio if Legion FC falls in at Children’s Mercy Park. The bigger incentive for Legion FC, though, is to put pressure on Louisville City FC with a win, which would move Birmingham ahead of LouCity before its game against New Mexico United on Sunday afternoon.
3. FC Tulsa
3. FC Tulsa
Record: 12-10-3, 39pts
Playoff Odds: 97%
Projected Finish: 3rd (78%)
Max. Points Available: 60pts
Magic Number: 12pts
Up Next: vs. MEM (10/2)
Tulsa would take a major step toward clinching a second consecutive postseason berth if it can defeat Memphis 901 FC at ONEOK Field, and it will also be hoping for OKC Energy FC to fall against San Antonio FC on Sunday as well.
4. OKC Energy FC
4. OKC Energy FC
Record: 8-8-11, 35pts
Playoff Odds: 30%
Projected Finish: 5th (48%)
Max. Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SA (10/3)
Seyi Adekoya’s late equalizer on Wednesday night was something but dropping another two points amps up the pressure overall to take victory against San Antonio FC on Sunday evening. Energy FC will be hoping FC Tulsa can take all three points off Memphis 901 FC on Saturday night before it retakes the field.
5. Memphis 901 FC
5. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 8-8-8, 32pts
Playoff Odds: 62%
Projected Finish: 4th (50%)
Max. Points Available: 56pts
Magic Number: 19pts
Up Next: at TUL (10/2)
The door is now wide open for Memphis 901 FC after Wednesday’s draw between OKC Energy FC and Indy Eleven, now it needs to walk through. Even a draw wouldn’t be a bad result against FC Tulsa on Saturday with five of its remaining seven games then coming on home turf.
6. Atlanta United 2
6. Atlanta United 2
Record: 7-12-9, 30pts
Playoff Odds: 2%
Projected Finish: 7th (64%)
Max. Points Available: 42pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at IND (10/2)
Battling Louisville City FC to a draw was impressive, but not enough to raise Atlanta’s postseason hopes. With four games to go, all on the road, it might need to win out to have a chance to catch either OKC Energy FC or Memphis 901 FC. That run starts on Saturday against Indy Eleven.
7. Indy Eleven
7. Indy Eleven
Record: 8-13-6, 30pts
Playoff Odds: 9%
Projected Finish: 6th (45%)
Max. Points Available: 45pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. ATL (10/2)
Indy was so close to the victory it needed against OKC Energy FC but conceded late and remained in seventh place. It now has to hope for both Energy FC and Memphis 901 FC to struggle mightily down the stretch and for a boost in home form, where it’s only recorded 11 goals in 13 games at Michael A. Carroll Stadium so far this season.
8. Sporting Kansas City II
8. Sporting Kansas City II
Record: 4-14-8, 20pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 8th (97%)
Max. Points Available: 38pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. BHM (10/1)
SKC II could play spoiler down the stretch – as it did against FC Tulsa last weekend – but if it loses to Birmingham Legion FC on Friday night it could end up mathematically eliminated by the end of the weekend.

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