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USL Championship Playoff Projections - Sept. 29-30

By USLChampionship.com Staff, 09/28/21, 3:30PM EDT

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Week 24’s midweek action brings key games in three divisions

Phoenix Rising FC became the first team into the 2021 USL Championship Playoffs field on Saturday night, and the door is open for Louisville City FC to join them on Wednesday night with the right pair of results in the Central Division.

There’s plenty more to keep an eye on in Week 24’s midweek action, though, including a crucial contest between two Mountain Division contenders and both Rising FC and El Paso Locomotive FC looking to handle business in their pursuit of the best record in the regular season.

Here are three games to watch over the next two days, and where everyone stands in the big picture after our first two mathematical eliminations from contention.

Matches to Watch


OKC Energy FC
Central
Wednesday, September 29
8:30 PM EST
Taft Stadium
Indy Eleven
Central

OKC Energy FC took a 2-0 victory in the opening game of this doubleheader on Sunday evening, which means its going to be incumbent on Indy to provide a response or see its postseason hopes suffer an even bigger blow. Energy FC will be hoping to complete a sweep, though, as it tries to keep the pressure on Memphis 901 FC to win its games in hand in the battle for fourth place, and with Villyan Bijev pulling the strings they very well could do so. Should the hosts take victory, it would also keep Louisville City FC waiting to clinch its playoff place until this weekend.

New Mexico United
Mountain
Wednesday, September 29
9:00 PM EST
Isotopes Park
Rio Grande Valley FC
Mountain

New Mexico United and Rio Grande Valley FC both took victories on Saturday night to close the gap to Austin Bold FC in fourth place, and now square off in another crucial game for the hopes of both clubs. If there’s a little more urgency on one side, it’s likely to be with the Toros, who have played one game more than New Mexico and as a result have a narrower margin of error. If United takes all three points at home, though, it would jump past Austin into fourth place and be in control of its path to the postseason with seven games to go in the season for both clubs.

Hartford Athletic
Atlantic
Thursday, September 30
8:00 PM EST
Taft Stadium
Charlotte Independence
Atlantic

It’s do-or-die time for Hartford Athletic in Thursday night’s nationally televised contest on ESPN Deportes as the fourth-placed Charlotte Independence visit Dillon Stadium. There’s currently a 10-point margin between the two sides with the sixth-placed Athletic sitting with eight games to go in the season, meaning they need a win to cut into Charlotte’s advantage. Should Hartford do so, it could make things a little more interesting down the stretch for both themselves and the Charleston Battery. If the Independence take victory, though, it could be curtains for both the teams below the playoff line with seven games to go.

Standings


Pacific Division

 

Pacific Division

Phoenix Rising FC
1. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 17-3-5, 56pts
Playoff Odds: Clinched
Projected Finish: 1st (>99%)
Max. Points Available: 77pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at LA (9/29), at OC (10/2)
Santi Moar’s goal kinda clinched Phoenix’s playoff berth – Rising FC was going to be in regardless with Oakland failing to win in Orange County – but it made sure the side stayed one point ahead in the maximum points available column ahead of the Tampa Bay Rowdies. That’s what Phoenix is playing for now, and a win against the LA Galaxy II on Wednesday will clinch the Pacific Division title as well.
2. San Diego Loyal SC
2. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 12-10-4, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 98%
Projected Finish: 2nd (56%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 14
Up Next:at LA (10/2)
Landon Donovan might not have been thrilled by elements of the performance in Saturday’s win in Las Vegas, but the combination of that result and losses for Oakland and Sacramento moved SD Loyal that much closer to the playoffs and still solidly in contention for the runner-up spot to Phoenix.
3. Orange County SC
3. Orange County SC
Record: 10-8-7, 37pts
Playoff Odds: 94%
Projected Finish: 3rd (43%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 17pts
Up Next: vs. PHX (10/2)
The good news for Orange County is they’ll face a Phoenix Rising FC on Saturday night that plays in midweek before it heads to Championship Soccer Stadium. With San Diego having completed its series against Rising FC already, the two meetings OCSC has with the presumptive division leader are going to be pivotal to the club’s chances of a second-place finish.
4. Oakland Roots SC
4. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 8-11-6, 30pts
Playoff Odds: 21%
Projected Finish: 6th (28%)
Max. Points Available: 51pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. LV (10/2)
Oakland’s defeat was a blow, but the fact that Tacoma Defiance and Sacramento Republic FC also lost at home meant it wasn’t a terrible weekend for Roots SC. They’ll want all three points at home to Las Vegas, though, and will be keeping a close eye on the LA Galaxy II’s game with Phoenix on Wednesday night as well.
5. Tacoma Defiance
5. Tacoma Defiance
Record: 8-10-6, 30pts
Playoff Odds: 24%
Projected Finish: 7th (30%)
Max. Points Available: 54pts
Magic Number: 24
Up Next: at SAC (10/2)
Technically, the Defiance are still in the driver’s seat and control their own path to the playoffs with eight games to go. The five-game losing streak the side is now on means its odds are those of a team that isn’t the favorite anymore, though, and that puts Saturday’s visit to Sacramento Republic FC in must-win territory.
6. LA Galaxy II
6. LA Galaxy II
Record: 8-11-5, 29pts
Playoff Odds: 29%
Projected Finish: 6th (24%)
Max. Points Available: 53pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. PHX (9/29), vs. SD (10/2)
The Galaxy II now have a winning record all-time at Heart Health Park after Sunday’s win against Sacramento Republic FC at 4-3-3. Los Dos are going to have to follow that up with two more stellar performances, though, or else they could get pushed back out of the playoff race as quickly as they returned with Phoenix Rising FC and San Diego Loyal SC visiting Dignity Health Sports Park this week.
7. Sacramento Republic FC
7. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 7-10-8, 29pts
Playoff Odds: 33%
Projected Finish: 4th (25%)
Max. Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs TAC (10/2)
Republic FC’s inability to string together consecutive wins – which the side hasn’t since the opening two games of the season – might be the thing that dooms its playoff bid. Saturday’s home game against Tacoma Defiance is now a must-win for this side, and the visitors.
8. Las Vegas Lights FC
8. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 5-19-2, 17pts
Playoff Odds:<1%
Project Finish: 8th (>99%)
Max. Points Available: 35pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at OAK (10/2))
Las Vegas keeps battling away, but if it falls away to Oakland on Saturday night the side’s mathematical elimination arrives to bring down the curtain on the season.

Mountain Division

 

Mountain Division

2. El Paso Locomotive FC
1. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 13-2-8, 47pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
Projected Finish: 1st (91%)
Max Points Available: 74pts
Magic Number: 11
Up Next: vs. SLC (9/29), at COS (10/2)
With both Phoenix Rising FC and the Tampa Bay Rowdies picking up wins, this is a big week for Locomotive FC as it hosts Real Monarchs SLC on Wednesday night before visiting Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC. Now sitting third in the projected order of finish for best record in the league, wins are needed in both games to keep the pressure on their fellow division leaders.
2. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
2. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 12-7-7, 43pts
Playoff Odds: 96%
Projected Finish: 2nd (46%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: 15
Up Next: vs. ELP (10/2)
The Switchbacks will get a full week to prepare for its showdown with El Paso Locomotive FC on Saturday as it tries to take advantage of San Antonio’s defeat to New Mexico and push on for a second-place finish.
2. San Antonio FC
3. San Antonio FC
Record: 11-7-7, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 92%
Projected Finish: 2nd (37%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: 18pts
Up Next: at OKC (10/3)
San Antonio lost its edge in the battle with Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC thanks to Saturday’s loss to New Mexico United. Now it gets a trip on Sunday to an OKC Energy FC side that will be battling for its playoff life at Taft Stadium, which could be tricky.
4. Austin Bold FC
4. Austin Bold FC
Record: 9-7-9, 36pts
Playoff Odds: 33%
Projected Finish: 5th (41%)
Max. Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. TAC (10/6)
Austin gets a bye this week but will be watching Wednesday’s contest between Rio Grande Valley FC and New Mexico United closely. The best result for Bold FC would be a draw, but if a side has to come out on top, in-state rival the Toros would be the preferable option for Head Coach Ryan Thompson’s side.
5. Rio Grande Valley FC
5. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 9-9-7, 34pts
Playoff Odds: 23%
Projected Finish: 6th (52%)
Max. Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at NM (9/29), vs. SLC (10/2)
The Toros got off their winless slide on Saturday night and was good value in the end for the win. They’re going to have to be sharper defensively as they head to New Mexico United on Wednesday for a must-win game for both teams that should be must-see entertainment for fans.
6. New Mexico United
6. New Mexico United
Record: 9-8-7, 34pts
Playoff Odds: 56%
Projected Finish: 4th (32%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 24pts
Up Next: vs. RGV (9/25), at LOU (10/3)
New Mexico flipped its postseason odds back above 50 percent thanks to its victory in San Antonio FC and Austin Bold FC’s defeat to Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC on Saturday night. United now has control of its chances, but it will only hold onto that opportunity with a win against Rio Grande Valley FC on Wednesday night.
4. Real Monarchs SLC
7. Real Monarchs SLC
Record: 4-16-5, 17pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 7th (99%)
Max. Points Available: 38pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at ELP (9/29), at RGV (10/2)
The Monarchs get the chance to play spoiler on Wednesday night in El Paso, but if they lose they’re mathematically eliminated before the weekend.

Atlantic Division

 

Atlantic Division

1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 18-6-1, 52pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
Projected Finish: 1st (>99%)
Max. Points Available: 76pts
Magic Number: 1
Up Next: at CHS (10/2)
The Rowdies are one point away from the playoffs after their victory on Saturday night and the draw between Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC and the Charleston Battery, which they can claim as they visit Charleston on Saturday night. The aim will be for all three points for Tampa Bay, though, as it looks to keep pressure on Phoenix Rising FC for the best record in the league.
2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 14-7-6, 48pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
Projected Finish: 2nd (48%)
Max. Points Available: 63pts
Magic Number: 8
Up Next: at MIA (10/2)
The Hounds are still favorite to finish second in the Atlantic Division after Saturday’s epic 3-3 draw with the Charleston Battery, but the fact that Miami FC is now within range to pull level on points with a game in hand when the teams meet at FIU Stadium makes it one of the biggest games this week in the big picture.
3. The Miami FC
3. The Miami FC
Record: 13-7-6, 45pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 2nd (33%)
Max. Points Available: 63pts
Magic Number: 11
Up Next: vs. PIT (10/2)
Miami FC romped past Loudoun United FC in a similar fashion that next opponent Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC did recently. Now second place is up for grabs as Miami plays host to the Hounds this weekend after earning four points out of six in its two trips to Pittsburgh earlier this season. Another win and Miami is likely the new favorite for second place.
4. Charlotte Independence
4. Charlotte Independence
Record: 12-9-4, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 97%
Projected Finish: 4th (43%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: 16
Up Next: at HFD (9/30), vs. LDN (10/3)
The Independence’s hopes of a second-place finish got dented a little with their defeat to Birmingham Legion FC. The side’s playoff chances are still rock solid, though, and the side would take a big step forward with a six-point week, starting with victory against Hartford Athletic on Thursday night.
5. Charleston Battery
5. Charleston Battery
Record: 8-9-7, 31pts
Playoff Odds: 1%
Projected Finish: 6th (54%)
Max. Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: v. TBR (10/2)
You can’t fault the battle the Battery once again showed in Pittsburgh, but they needed to hold on for victory there, especially with the Independence suffering defeat on Sunday. Now Charleston needs to beat the Tampa Bay Rowdies at home or see the potential for the gap to widen even further to fourth place.
6. Hartford Athletic
6. Hartford Athletic
Record: 9-12-3, 30pts
Playoff Odds: 2%
Projected Finish: 5th (52%)
Max. Points Available: 54pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. CLT (9/30)
The Athletic wouldn’t be mathematically eliminated if they failed to take victory against the Charlotte Independence on Thursday night, but the road back from a defeat in this six-pointer would not be promising at all.
Eliminated from Playoff Contention: New York Red Bulls II, Loudoun United FC

Central Conference

 

Central Division

1. Louisville City FC
1. Louisville City FC
Record: 14-5-6, 48pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 1st (79%)
Max. Points Available: 69pts
Magic Number: 4
Up Next: at ATL (9/29); vs. NM (10/3)
LouCity gets another crack at clinching a playoff spot on Wednesday night. A win against Atlanta United 2 and either a draw or an Indy Eleven victory against OKC Energy FC in that matchup gets Louisville in, and would also extend its lead over Legion FC for the division lead to four points ahead of this weekend’s action.
2. Birmingham Legion FC
2. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 14-7-5, 47pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 2nd (73%)
Max. Points Available:65pts
Magic Number: 6
Up Next: at SKC (10/1)
Consecutive victories coupled with two draws in the last three games for Louisville City FC has made the division title race maybe the most interesting in the league for now. They’ll keep an eye on LouCity’s game with Atlanta United 2 on Wednesday to see of the door opens a little wider, and OKC’s game with Indy to see if they can clinch a playoff spot on Friday night.
3. FC Tulsa
3. FC Tulsa
Record: 12-10-3, 39pts
Playoff Odds: 97%
Projected Finish: 3rd (77%)
Max. Points Available: 60pts
Magic Number: 14
Up Next: vs. MEM (10/2)
Tulsa’s top-two chances took a decent hit this weekend with its draw at Sporting Kansas City II coupled with Birmingham Legion FC coming through with a big win at home against the Charlotte Independence. There’s no real worry about not making the playoffs yet, but Saturday’s game at home to Memphis is going to be an important contest for both sides.
4. OKC Energy FC
4. OKC Energy FC
Record: 8-8-10, 34pts
Playoff Odds: 37%
Projected Finish: 5th (42%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. IND (9/30), vs. SA (10/3)
Villyan Bijev continued to shine for Energy FC as they kept the pressure on Memphis 901 FC with Sunday’s win, and they’ll be looking for a similar performance on Wednesday against Indy Eleven. A win for the hosts at Taft Stadium could turn the battle for fourth into a head-to-head showdown if Atlanta United 2 can’t take victory against Louisville City FC.
5. Memphis 901 FC
5. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 8-8-8, 32pts
Playoff Odds: 55%
Projected Finish: 4th (43%)
Max. Points Available: 56pts
Magic Number: 21
Up Next: at TUL (10/2)
Memphis will be paying close attention to Wednesday’s game between OKC Energy FC and Indy Eleven, and after this weekend’s results it would probably like Indy to force a split and earn victory to dent OKC’s playoff drive. Memphis controls its path whatever the result, though, as it heads to Tulsa on Saturday night.
6. Atlanta United 2
6. Atlanta United 2
Record: 7-12-8, 29pts
Playoff Odds: 2%
Projected Finish: 7th (62%)
Max. Points Available: 44pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. LOU (9/29), at IND (10/2)
Three defeats in a row has Atlanta as the biggest outsider to claim fourth place at this point of the four teams involved, and facing a Louisville City FC side that could clinch a playoff place with a win doesn’t seem like a way to remedy that.
7. Indy Eleven
7. Indy Eleven
Record: 8-13-5, 29pts
Playoff Odds: 9%
Projected Finish: 6th (44%)
Max. Points Available: 47pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at OKC (9/30), vs. ATL (10/2)
Indy has to produce a response to its past two defeats on Wednesday night. If it doesn’t, it will be looking at an eight-point deficit to Energy FC with five games to go, let alone whatever 901 FC might be able to reach.
8. Sporting Kansas City II
8. Sporting Kansas City II
Record: 4-14-8, 20pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 8th (96%)
Max. Points Available: 38pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. BHM (10/1)
Sporting pulled off a solid result against FC Tulsa on Friday night, but it could be mathematically eliminated with a defeat to Birmingham Legion FC depending on the rest of this week’s results.