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USL Championship Playoff Projections - September 24-26

By USLChampsionship.com Staff, 09/23/21, 5:05PM EDT

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Three division leaders are in range to clinch their playoff returns this weekend


San Antonio FC and New Mexico United are set to square off in one of this weekend's key games as the USL Championship Playoffs draw closer. | Photo courtesy Darren Abate / San Antonio FC

With six weekends to go in the 2021 USL Championship regular season, three of the division leaders are closing in on clinching their return to the postseason while other battles to move – or stay – above the playoff line are already in full swing.

Ahead of this weekend’s action in Week 23, here are three games to watch on Saturday and Sunday, and the big picture of where everyone in the Championship stands in this year’s playoff picture.
 

Matches to Watch


Memphis 901 FC
Central
Saturday, September 25
8:00 PM EST
AutoZone Park
Louisville City FC
Central

Memphis 901 FC’s victory against Indy Eleven on Wednesday night put the side fully in the driver’s seat when it comes to the fourth and final playoff place in the Central Division, level on points with OKC Energy FC but with two games in hand down the stretch. The hosts will get a big test from a Louisville City FC side that could clinch a playoff place with a win and help elsewhere, though, as 901 FC tries to continue its drive toward a first trip to the USL Championship Playoffs with two of the league’s leading marksmen in Memphis’ Kyle Murphy (14 goals) and Louisville’s Cameron Lancaster (13 goals) set to feature.

San Antonio FC
Mountain
Saturday, September 25
8:30 PM EST
Toyota Field
New Mexico United
Mountain

San Antonio FC moved into second place in the Mountain Division as it wrapped up its four-game road trip last week with three consecutive victories, but still has work to do to secure that spot ahead of a Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC side that it will face on the final day of the regular season. By contrast, New Mexico United arrives fighting for its playoff life as it sits five points behind fourth-placed Austin Bold FC with nine games to go in its season. United is coming off a sparkling attacking display last weekend in a victory against Real Monarchs SLC and will need more of the same to try and knock off its hosts to take a step toward a potential third consecutive postseason berth.

Orange County SC
Pacific
Saturday, September 25
10:00 PM EST
Championship Soccer Stadium
Oakland Roots SC
Pacific

Oakland Roots SC moved into the playoff positions for the first time this season on Wednesday night after its 2-1 victory against San Diego Loyal SC, a result that was also a good one for Orange County as the sides get set to meet in Southern California on Saturday night. With a four-point gap separating the two sides in the Pacific Division, Oakland can not only solidify its position ahead of Tacoma Defiance and Sacramento Republic FC, but close the gap to Orange County with a win, while the hosts have the chance to remain within range of SD Loyal for second place in the standings and a potential home playoff game to open the postseason should they close out the season strongly.

Standings


Mountain Division

2. El Paso Locomotive FC
1. El Paso Locomotive FC
Record: 13-2-8, 47pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
Projected Finish: 1st (89%)
Max Points Available: 74pts
Magic Number: 12pts
Up Next: vs. SLC (9/29)
With only two defeats all season, Locomotive FC is cruising into its third consecutive postseason appearance, but Wednesday night’s draw against Austin Bold FC cost the side points in its goal of claiming homefield advantage over Phoenix Rising FC and the Tampa Bay Rowdies. El Paso will watch those games closely this weekend, as well as San Antonio FC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC’s outings as well.
2. San Antonio FC
2. San Antonio FC
Record: 11-6-7, 40pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
Projected Finish:1st (89%)
Max. Points Available: 74pts
Magic Number: 19pts
Up Next: vs. NM (9/25)
Closing out an arduous road trip with three consecutive victories was impressive work from SAFC, which is now looking much more secure in its position that it was at the midway point of the campaign. There’s no time to let the guard down now, though, with New Mexico coming to visit on Saturday night in another crucial contest.
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
3. Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
Record: 11-7-7, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 90%
Projected Finish: 3rd (41%)
Max. Points Available: 61pts
Magic Number: 19
Up Next: vs. ATX (9/25)
The Switchbacks appear primed for their first playoff appearance since the 2016 season thanks to the attacking exploits of Championship leading scorer Hadji Barry and his 23 goals. There’s still work to be done to lock that spot up, though, but the side could look to take advantage of an Austin side that battled to a 2-2 draw on Wednesday night against El Paso Locomotive FC before heading to Weidner Field this weekend.
4. Austin Bold FC
4. Austin Bold FC
Record: 9-6-9, 36pts
Playoff Odds: 55%
Projected Finish:5th (34%)
Max. Points Available: 60pts
Magic Number: 23pts
Up Next: vs. COS (9/25)
It took some Sonny Guadarrama magic to pull a point out of the fire for Austin Bold FC on Wednesday night against El Paso Locomotive FC, but that point could prove very valuable down the line as the side remains the best chance to finish in the postseason of the three teams contending for fourth spot. Austin will need to be sharp against on the road against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC this weekend, and will be watching for the results from Rio Grande Valley FC and New Mexico United’s games as well.
5. Rio Grande Valley FC
5. Rio Grande Valley FC
Record: 8-9-7, 31pts
Playoff Odds: 21%
Projected Finish: 21%
Max. Points Available: 55pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. ATL (9/25)
The Toros have gone from being in prime playoff real estate to outside looking in over the course of their current eight-game winless streak. Something’s got to turn around fast here if the strong early start isn’t going to go to waste, starting on Saturday with a visit from a tricky Atlanta United 2 side that is also fighting for its playoff life.
6. New Mexico United
6. New Mexico United
Record: 8-8-7, 31pts
Playoff Odds: 39%
Projected Finish: 6th (32%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SA (9/25)
New Mexico might have put in its most consistent attacking display this season on Saturday night in a 2-1 win against Real Monarchs SLC. Now it’s got to start producing something similar against its fellow playoff contenders, starting on the road against San Antonio on Saturday night while hoping that Austin Bold FC’s undefeated streak comes to an end against Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC.
4. Real Monarchs SLC
7. Real Monarchs SLC
Record: 4-16-4, 16pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: <1%
Max. Points Available: 40pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. NY (9/26)
There’s no way to sugarcoat this; with a 20-point gap to make up and only eight games left, the Monarchs are here to play as a spoiler the rest of the way since they’re on the verge of mathematical elimination.

Pacific Division

Phoenix Rising FC
1. Phoenix Rising FC
Record: 16-3-5, 53pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
Projected Finish: 1st (>99%)
Max. Points Available: 77pts
Magic Number: 2pts
Up Next: at TAC (9/25)
Phoenix Rising FC could have clinched a playoff spot on Wednesday had Oakland Roots SC not taken victory against San Diego Loyal SC, but that result and Sacramento Republic FC’s win at Tacoma Defiance opened the door to Phoenix clinching the Pacific Division title this weekend. Should Rising FC defeat Tacoma and see Oakland defeat Orange County SC and Las Vegas Lights FC defeat SD Loyal, Rising FC would be clear on 56 points and locked into a home game in the Western Conference Quarterfinals.
2. San Diego Loyal SC
2. San Diego Loyal SC
Record: 11-10-4, 37pts
Playoff Odds: 94%
Projected Finish: 2nd (49%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 18
Up Next:at LV (9/25)
San Diego Loyal SC’s defeat to Oakland Roots SC on Wednesday night didn’t really damage their overall playoff chances, but it opened the door a little wider for Orange County SC to make it a battle again down the stretch for second place and the home playoff game that comes with it. SD Loyal will be hoping to rebound on the road against Las Vegas Lights FC on Saturday and hoping Oakland can turn over Orange County at the same time to restore their edge in that race.
3. Orange County SC
3. Orange County SC
Record: 9-8-7, 88pts
Playoff Odds: 88 percent
Projected Finish: 2nd (37%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 21pts
Up Next: vs. OAK (9/25)
Orange County SC got a boost from Oakland Roots SC’s victory against San Diego Loyal SC on Wednesday night, which opened the potential for OCSC to go head-to-head with SD Loyal for second place down the stretch a little further. Orange County has got to face that same Roots SC side on Saturday, though, knowing there’s only four points separating the two teams with eight games to go in the campaign.
4. Oakland Roots SC
4. Oakland Roots SC
Record: 8-10-6, 30pts
Playoff Odds: 24%
Projected Finish: 6th (31%)
Max. Points Available: 54pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at OC (9/25)
Oakland Roots SC moved into the Pacific Division’s playoff positions for the first time this season on Wednesday night with its 2-1 victory against San Diego Loyal SC and is now 7-2-2 over its last 11 games. Now it’s got to try and hold onto that position as it heads to face Orange County SC on Saturday night, where a win would move the side within a point of third place, or a loss could see it drop back down depending on the results for Tacoma Defiance and Sacramento Republic FC.
5. Tacoma Defiance
5. Tacoma Defiance
Record: 8-9-6, 30pts
Playoff Odds: 29%
Projected Finish: 5th (25%)
Max. Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: 25
Up Next: vs. PHX (9/25)
Tacoma Defiance has hit a wall with four consecutive defeats after Wednesday’s loss to Sacramento Republic FC, and the last thing you want when that’s happening is a visit from Phoenix Rising FC, which knows its into the playoffs with a win and could clinch the division too on Saturday night. Tacoma is going to have to produce something special here, and hope that Oakland Roots SC and Sacramento both slip up in their games this weekend to get back into fourth.
6. Sacramento Republic FC
6. Sacramento Republic FC
Record: 7-9-8, 29pts
Playoff Odds: 53%
Projected Finish: 7th (28%)
Max. Points Available: 53pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. LA (9/26)
Sacramento Republic FC is now favored by the projections to finish in fourth place after its 1-0 victory against Tacoma Defiance on Wednesday night, but there’s still a lot of work to be done on the field to make sure that happens. The side will be watching Tacoma and Oakland Roots SC’s games closely on Saturday before it gets a key contest of its own Sunday as the LA Galaxy II visit Heart Health Park.
7. LA Galaxy II
7. LA Galaxy II
Record: 7-11-5, 26pts
Playoff Odds: 13%
Projected Finish: 7th (48%)
Max. Points Available: 53pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at SAC (9/26)
The LA Galaxy II are the longshot here by the numbers, but they can throw themselves back into the playoff race if both Oakland Roots SC and Tacoma Defiance drop points this weekend before Los Dos visits Sacramento Republic FC on Sunday. A win on the road would push LA level on points with Sacramento and right back into the mix for fourth place.
8. Las Vegas Lights FC
8. Las Vegas Lights FC
Record: 5-18-2, 17pts
Playoff Odds:<1%
Project Finish: 8th (98%)
Max. Points Available: 38pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. SD (9/25)
There isn’t much positive to report for Las Vegas right now, but that doesn’t mean the side can’t serve as a spoiler to the playoff aspirations of others. They’ll have the rest of the division hoping they can take points off San Diego Loyal SC on Saturday night at Cashman Field.

Atlantic Division

1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
1. Tampa Bay Rowdies
Record: 17-6-1, 52pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
Projected Finish: 1st (97%)
Max. Points Available: 65pts
Magic Number: 6pts
Up Next: at HFD (9/25)
The Tampa Bay Rowdies can clinch a playoff place on Saturday night after the Charleston Battery’s defeat to the New York Red Bulls II on Wednesday. Should the Rowdies take victory away to Hartford Athletic and the Battery fall against Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC on Saturday night, Tampa Bay would clinch its spot, and as importantly continue its drive to finish with the best record in the league and homefield advantage in the playoffs.
2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
Record: 14-7-5, 47pts
Playoff Odds: >99 percent
Projected Finish: 2nd (57%)
Max. Points Available: 65pts
Magic Number: 11pts
Up Next: v. CHS (9/25)
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC can’t clinch this weekend, but it could knock its Magic Number down to five with a victory at home to the Charleston Battery. A win would also help the Hounds solidify second place in the Atlantic standings as they try to avoid a battle for a home playoff game with Miami FC and the Charlotte Independence.
3. The Miami FC
3. The Miami FC
Record: 12-7-6, 42pts
Playoff Odds: 98%
Projected Finish: 4th (50%)
Max. Points Available: 63pts
Magic Number: 16pts
Up Next: vs. LDN (9/25)
Miami FC’s loss to the Charlotte Independence on Wednesday night made it more likely the side ends up as the fourth-placed qualifier from the Atlantic Division with Charlotte now only two points back and holding a game in hand. Head Coach Paul Dalglish’s side will want to put in a strong response on Saturday at home to eighth-placed Loudoun United FC.
4. Charlotte Independence
4. Charlotte Independence
Record: 12-8-4, 40pts
Playoff Odds: 97%
Projected Finish: 3rd (42%)
Max. Points Available: 64pts
Magic Number: 18pts
Up Next: at BHM (9/6)
The Charlotte Independence’s four-game winning streak has taken them from a likely playoff side to almost a lock as the side now sits 10 points ahead of the Charleston Battery and Hartford Athletic with both those clubs having only nine games left to play. Charlotte will be looking to continue that form on Sunday evening but will get a good test on the road against Birmingham Legion FC in what could be a playoff preview at BBVA Field.
5. Charleston Battery
5. Charleston Battery
Record: 8-9-6, 30pts
Playoff Odds: 1%
Projected Finish: 6th (60%)
Max. Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at PIT (9/25)
Wednesday’s defeat against the New York Red Bulls II might have been the final call for the Charleston Battery’s playoff streak, with a 10-point gap to now make up on the top four and a visit to Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC next on the schedule. Charleston is going to have to take all three points from that contest and hope for a collapse from either Miami FC or the Charlotte Independence to make it to the playoffs from here.
6. Hartford Athletic
6. Hartford Athletic
Record: 9-11-3, 30pts
Playoff Odds: 3%
Projected Finish: 5th (58%)
Max. Points Available: 57pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. TBR (9/25)
Hartford Athletic finds itself in a similar predicament to the Charleston Battery as the Tampa Bay Rowdies visit Dillon Stadium on Saturday. The rule of thumb has been that a side needs more games than points to be made up to be in contention for a playoff post, which means the Athletic have to win and hope for one – or both – of Miami FC and the Charlotte Independence to lose this weekend to get back on the right side of that equation.
7. New York Red Bulls II
7. New York Red Bulls II
Record: 5-16-4, 19pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 7th (75%)
Max. Points Available: 41pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at SLC (9/26)
The New York Red Bulls II did everyone in the top four of the Atlantic Division a massive favor with their win against the Charleston Battery on Wednesday, but there’s still no real path for the side to move back into playoff contention from here
8. Loudoun United FC
8. Loudoun United FC
Record: 3-17-2, 11pts
Playoff Odds: <1 percent
Projected Finish: 8th (65%)
Max. Points Available: 41pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at MIA (9/25)
Loudoun United FC returns to action on Saturday night against a Miami FC side that is going to be eager to put its midweek defeat aside. If United can get a result, though, it would be a boost for the Charlotte Independence and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC in the standings.

Central Division

1. Louisville City FC
1. Louisville City FC
Record: 14-5-5, 47pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 1st (86%)
Max. Points Available: 71pts
Magic Number: 5pts
Up Next: at MEM (9/25)
Wednesday night’s results set up the weekend nicely for Louisville City FC, which can now clinch a playoff place should it take victory against Memphis 901 FC on Saturday night and then see OKC Energy FC and Indy Eleven play to a draw on Sunday, which would drop OKC’s maximum points total to 50 and Indy’s to 48 with LouCity holding the head-to-head tiebreaker on Energy FC. Should Louisville win and there be a decisive result for either OKC or Indy, though, it would get the chance to clinch at Atlanta United 2 next Wednesday night.
2. Birmingham Legion FC
2. Birmingham Legion FC
Record: 13-7-5, 44pts
Playoff Odds: >99%
Projected Finish: 2nd (71%)
Max. Points Available:65pts
Magic Number: 9pts
Up Next: vs. CLT (9/26)
The combination of Birmingham Legion FC’s victory against Atlanta United 2 and Memphis 901 FC’s victory against Indy Eleven moved Legion FC closer to its third consecutive playoff berth and a good chance at a home playoff game as a top-two finisher. The side will get a serious test on Sunday evening in what could be a playoff preview against the Atlantic Division’s Charlotte Independence, which is on a four-game winning streak.
3. FC Tulsa
3. FC Tulsa
Record: 12-10-2, 38pts
Playoff Odds: 97%
Projected Finish: 3rd (70%)
Max. Points Available: 62pts
Magic Number: 15pts
Up Next: at SKC (9/24)
Tulsa’s likelihood of a third-place finish went up after Wednesday’s results, especially Birmingham Legion FC’s victory against Atlanta United 2. The side will try to put some pressure on Legion FC on Friday night as it visits Sporting Kansas City II before Birmingham hosts the Charlotte Independence on Sunday evening.
4. OKC Energy FC
4. OKC Energy FC
Record: 7-8-10, 31pts
Playoff Odds: 21%
Projected Finish: 5th (33%)
Max. Points Available: 52pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. IND (9/26)
After Memphis 901 FC’s victory on Wednesday night, OKC Energy FC’s game with Indy Eleven is looking like a must-win for both sides at Taft Stadium on Sunday evening. Energy FC would certainly appreciate a Louisville City FC victory against 901 FC on Saturday, too, to raise its postseason chances a little further.
5. Memphis 901 FC
5. Memphis 901 FC
Record: 8-8-7, 31pts
Playoff Odds: 21%
Projected Finish: 4th (45%)
Max. Points Available: 58pts
Magic Number: 22
Up Next: vs. LOU (9/25)
Sure, there was some good fortune involved in Memphis 901 FC’s 1-0 victory against Indy Eleven on Wednesday night, but those are the moments that can make or break a playoff drive. Memphis is playing with house money to an extent as it hosts Louisville City FC on Saturday with two games in hand on OKC Energy FC, but it would certainly like to see a draw on Sunday evening when OKC plays host to Indy in another key game in this postseason race.
6. Atlanta United 2
6. Atlanta United 2
Record: 7-11-8, 29pts
Playoff Odds: 5%
Projected Finish: 7th (54%)
Max. Points Available: 47pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: at RGV (9/25)
It’s not looking good for Atlanta United 2 after its loss to Birmingham Legion FC on Wednesday night, which given the side now has only six games remaining makes Saturday’s visit to Rio Grande Valley FC a must-win. The good news for Atlanta is the Toros have also been struggling of late, which could make for a compelling matchup for neutrals as both side really have to get three points.
7. Indy Eleven
7. Indy Eleven
Record: 8-12-5, 29pts
Playoff Odds: 20%
Projected Finish: 6th (31%)
Max. Points Available: 50pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. OKC (9/26)
If there’s one thing that stood out during Indy Eleven’s 1-0 defeat to Memphis 901 FC on Wednesday aside from the goal, it was that Indy registered four official shots in the opening 10 minutes, and then one in the remaining 80, including none in the second half. That’s not going to earn a playoff spot, and now Sunday’s visit to OKC Energy FC is a must-win.
8. Sporting Kansas City II
8. Sporting Kansas City II
Record: 4-14-7, 19pts
Playoff Odds: <1%
Projected Finish: 8th (95%)
Max. Points Available: 40pts
Magic Number: N/A
Up Next: vs. TUL (9/24)
Sporting Kansas City II isn’t going to make the playoffs this season, but both Birmingham Legion FC and Louisville City FC would appreciate it if SKC II could take points from FC Tulsa on Friday night to kick off the weekend’s action.

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