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BY THE NUMBERS – Projecting the Championship Playoffs Field with a Quarter of the Season Remaining

By USLChampionship.com Staff, 09/21/21, 1:40PM EDT

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Wednesday brings us to the three-quarter point of the season, how do your club’s playoff chances look?


Will Phoenix Rising FC and the Tampa Bay Rowdies square off in the USL Championship Final in November? The current postseason projections have them on a collision course with a quarter of the season to go. | Photo courtesy Matt May / Tampa Bay Rowdies

This Wednesday night will mark the start of the final quarter of the 2021 USL Championship regular season, and that means the postseason is just around the corner for the 16 teams that make the field. As we’ve done twice previously this season at the one-quarter and halfway marks, we’re revisiting the projections made by fivethirtyeight.com and see how each club’s playoff stock had risen or fallen since we last checked in on August 19.

Here’s our latest look at the division-by-division changes, and who the favorites are now to claim the USL Championship Final at the end of the season to see which clubs the projections are buying or selling as contenders.

Atlantic Division


Team Preseason Playoff Odds Quarter-Season Odds Mid-Season Odds Current Playoff Odds +/-
1
TBR
Tampa Bay Rowdies
90% 97% 98% >99%
+1%
2
PIT
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
PIT
79% 86% 97% >99%
+2%
3
MIA
The Miami FC
67% 45% 74% 98%
+24%
4
CLT
Charlotte Independence
68% 84% 62% 94%
+32%
5
CHS
Charleston Battery
52% 34% 32% 4%
-28%
6
HFD
Hartford Athletic
23% 43% 35% 4%
-31%
7
NY
New York Red Bulls II
12% 4% 1% <1%
-1%
8
LDN
Loudoun United FC
8% 6% <1% <1%
0%

The Tampa Bay Rowdies and Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC are both locks to advance to the playoffs, with Tampa Bay’s record-setting eight-game shutout streak making it now a 97 percent favorite to win the division according to fivethirtyeight.com.

The big shakeout has come in the middle of the standings, however, with Miami FC’s nine-game undefeated run and the more recent three-game winning streak put together by the Charlotte Independence putting both the Charleston Battery and Hartford Athletic into a significant deficit. There’s still time for both sides, but they might have to go on big runs during the final six weeks of the season to get back into contention.

Central Division


Team Preseason Playoff Odds Quarter-Season Odds Mid-Season Odds Current Playoff Offs +/-
1
LOU
Louisville City FC
86% 97% >99% >99%
0
2
BHM
Birmingham Legion FC
70% 92% 96% >99%
+3%
3
TUL
FC Tulsa
57% 54% 55% 97%
+42%
4
MEM
Memphis 901 FC
42% 42% 47% 42%
-5%
5
IND
Indy Eleven
79% 76% 54% 30%
-24%
6
OKC
OKC Energy FC
34% 15% 26% 21%
-5%
7
ATL
Atlanta United 2
14% 20% 21% 10%
-11%
8
SKC
Sporting KC II
17% 5% 3% <1%
-2%

We already knew Louisville City FC was looking like a lock to make its seventh consecutive postseason trip, and the two-time Championship Title-winner is also a 91 percent chance to claim the division title as well. The big move in the past quarter has come from FC Tulsa, both due to its own excellent form, and also to the uncertainty that lies below it.

While the odds have moved in favor of Memphis 901 FC and its games in hand in the projections, it still feels like this is up for grabs, even for an Atlanta United 2 side that has punched above its projections most of the year. The twists and turns down the stretch on who takes fourth place are going to be compelling viewing for fans and neutrals alike.

Mountain Division


Team Preseason Playoff Odds Quarter-Season Odds Mid-Season Odds Current Playoff Odds +/-
1
ELP
El Paso Locomotive FC
73% 83% >99% >99%
0
2
SA
San Antonio FC
91% 67% 73% 95%
+22%
3
COS
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
50% 63% 61% 90%
+29%
4
ATX
Austin Bold FC
56% 44% 39% 56%
+17%
5
NM
New Mexico United
72% 75% 54% 38%
-16%
2
RGV
Rio Grande Valley FC
30% 62% 73% 20%
-53%
7
SLC
Real Monarchs SLC
29% 7% 1% <1%
0

There’s no change at the top with El Paso Locomotive FC still well out in front as a 89 percent chance to finish on top of the Mountain Division, and it has now been joined in looking nailed on for a playoff place by San Antonio FC and Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC who now both comfortably in second and third place.

The biggest drop of the quarter has come from Rio Grande Valley FC, which is now third-favorite to take fourth place after its eight-game winless streak. Instead, Austin Bold FC is now slightly better than a coin-flip to advance ahead of New Mexico United after three consecutive victories to start the rein of new Head Coach Ryan Thompson. There’s still a long way to go here, though, before the final spot is settled.

Pacific Division


Team Preseason Playoff Odds Quarter-Season Odds Mid-Season Odds Current Playoff Odds +/-
1
PHX
Phoenix Rising FC
96% 99% >99% >99%
0
2
SD
San Diego Loyal
71% 69% 82% 97%
+15%
3
OC
Orange County SC
86% 87% 82% 90%
8%
5
TAC
Tacoma Defiance
21% 18% 40% 48%
+8%
5
SAC
Sacramento Republic FC
83% 66% 57% 36%
-21%
6
OAK
Oakland Roots SC
20% 34% 3% 16%
+13%
7
LA
LA Galaxy II
11% 13% 16% 14%
-2%
8
LV
Las Vegas Lights FC
13% 13% 20% <1%
-19%

Phoenix is exactly where it was at the midway point, sitting with a 99 percent chance to win the division, and can in fact be the first team to clinch a playoff berth this season before it next takes the field on Saturday night with its Magic Number at 2 going into the week. Should Oakland Roots SC fail to take victory against San Diego Loyal SC at home in midweek, it would no longer be able to catch Phoenix on 53 points, sealing Rising FC’s playoff spot thanks to its already-earned head-to-head tiebreakers with Sacramento Republic FC and the LA Galaxy II.

Sacramento is also in action in midweek as it visits the Tacoma Defiance in what looks like a must-win game at Cheney Stadium after its on-field struggles have now manifested in the projections. The race for fourth place, as in the Central and Mountain Divisions, is going to be one to follow closely here.

USL Championship Title Winner Projections


Team Preseason Title Odds Quarter-Season Odds Mid-Season Odds Current Playoff Odds +/-
1
TBR
Tampa Bay Rowdies
10% 11% 10% 22%
+12%
2
PHX
Phoenix Rising FC
18% 21% 24% 21%
-3%
3
LOU
Louisville City FC
8% 13% 15% 14%
-1%
4
ELP
El Paso Locomotive FC
4% 5% 10% 11%
+1%
5
PIT
Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC
PIT
5% 6% 8% 5%
-3%
6
SA
San Antonio FC
9% 4% 4% 5%
+1%
7
MIA
The Miami FC
3% 1% 2% 3%
+1%
8
BHM
Birmingham Legion FC
4% 5% 4% 3%
-1%
9
COS
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
1% 3% 2% 3%
+1%
10
CLT
Charlotte Independence
3% 4% 2% 3%
+1%
11
SD
San Diego Loyal
3% 2% 2% 2%
0
12
OC
Orange County SC
7% 5% 3% 2%
-1%
13
TUL
FC Tulsa
2% 1% <1% 1%
+1%
14
NM
New Mexico United
3% 4% 2% 1%
-1%
15
ATX
Austin Bold FC
2% 1% <1% 1%
+1%

If you want a statistical marker of what reeling off eight consecutive shutouts will do for a team, take a look at the Tampa Bay Rowdies, who now sit as fivethirtyeight.com’s narrow favorite to claim the USL Championship Final in November. Their 11 percent rise has pushed Phoenix down as second-favorite, while Louisville City FC and El Paso Locomotive FC are favored to be their Conference Final opponents for a second consecutive season.

Others have arrived on the leaderboard like FC Tulsa and Austin Bold FC, but with everyone beyond the top four now at five percent or lower, the computer has honed in on the teams it believes are the most complete, and as such the most likely to claim the crown with one quarter of the regular season to go.

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